Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suitability of relative humidity as an estimator of leaf wetness duration

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is a key parameter in agricultural meteorology since it is related to epidemiology of many important crops, controlling pathogen infection and development rates. Because LWD is not widely measured, several methods have been developed to estimate it from weather data. Among the models used to estimate LWD, those that use physical principles of dew formation and dew and/or rain evaporation have shown good portability and sufficiently accurate results, but their complexity is a disadvantage for operational use. Alternatively, empirical models have been used despite their limitations. The simplest empirical models use only relative humidity data. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three RH-based empirical models to estimate LWD in four regions around the world that have different climate conditions. Hourly LWD, air temperature, and relative humidity data were obtained from Ames, IA (USA), Elora, Ontario (Canada), Florence, Toscany (Italy), and Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State (Brazil). These data were used to evaluate the performance of the following empirical LWD estimation models: constant RH threshold (RH >= 90%); dew point depression (DPD); and extended RH threshold (EXT_RH). Different performance of the models was observed in the four locations. In Ames, Elora and Piracicaba, the RH >= 90% and DPD models underestimated LWD, whereas in Florence these methods overestimated LWD, especially for shorter wet periods. When the EXT_RH model was used, LWD was overestimated for all locations, with a significant increase in the errors. In general, the RH >= 90% model performed best, presenting the highest general fraction of correct estimates (F(C)), between 0.87 and 0.92, and the lowest false alarm ratio (F(AR)), between 0.02 and 0.31. The use of specific thresholds for each location improved accuracy of the RH model substantially, even when independent data were used; MAE ranged from 1.23 to 1.89 h, which is very similar to errors obtained with published physical models for LWD estimation. Based on these results, we concluded that, if calibrated locally, LWD can be estimated with acceptable accuracy by RH above a specific threshold, and that the EXT_RH method was unsuitable for estimating LWD at the locations used in this study. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic population data of 12 STR loci of the PowerPlex (R) Y system in the state of Sao Paulo population (Southeast of Brazil)

Allele frequency distributions and population data for 12 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) included in the PowerPlex (R) Y Systems (Promega) were obtained for a sample of 200 healthy unrelated males living in S (a) over tildeo Paulo State (Southeast of Brazil). A total of 192 haplotypes were identified, of which 184 were unique and 8 were found in 2 individuals. The average gene diversity of the 12 Y-STR was 0.6746 and the haplotype diversity was 0.9996. Pairwise analysis confirmed that our population is more similar with the Italy, North Portugal and Spain, being more distant of the Japan. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

(FAB12_2_019) National identity at Arakawa & Gins’ Site of Reversible Destiny—Yoro, Japan

This paper examines the manipulation of forms of the traditional Japanese stroll garden at Site of Reversible Destiny, a tourist park designed by the New Yorkbased collaborators Shusaku Arakawa and Madeline Gins. Landscape and its representations are central to the construction of national identity in Japan since the cultural distinctiveness of the Japanese people has been argued to rest on their unique relationship to nature and the country’s idiosyncratic geography. The stroll garden of the larger estates and palaces of the Edo period (1615–1867) developed out of earlier temple gardens and most public parks in contemporary Japan are in the grounds of these historic sites or reproduce their forms.

The Tausk controversy on the foundations of quantum mechanics: Physics, philosophy, and politics

In 1966 the Brazilian physicist Klaus Tausk (b. 1927) circulated a preprint from the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy, criticizing Adriana Daneri, Angelo Loinger, and Giovanni Maria Prosperi`s theory of 1962 on the measurement problem in quantum mechanics. A heated controversy ensued between two opposing camps within the orthodox interpretation of quantum theory, represented by Leon Rosenfeld and Eugene P. Wigner. The controversy went well beyond the strictly scientific issues, however, reflecting philosophical and political commitments within the context of the Cold War, the relationship between science in developed and Third World countries, the importance of social skills, and personal idiosyncrasies.

Report of the equine herpesvirus-1 Havermeyer Workshop, San Gimignano, Tuscany, June 2004

Amongst the infectious diseases that threaten equine health, herpesviral infections remain a world wide cause of serious morbidity and mortality. Equine herpesvirus-1 infection is the most important pathogen, causing an array of disorders including epidemic respiratory disease abortion, neonatal foal death, myeloencephalopathy and chorioretinopathy. Despite intense scientific investigation, extensive use of vaccination, and established codes of practice for control of disease outbreaks, infection and disease remain common. While equine herpesvirus-1 infection remains a daunting challenge for immunoprophylaxis, many critical advances in equine immunology have resulted in studies of this virus, particularly related to MHC-restricted cytotoxicity in the horse. A workshop was convened in San Gimignano, Tuscany, Italy in June 2004, to bring together clinical and basic researchers in the field of equine herpesvirus-1 study to discuss the latest advances and future prospects for improving our under-standing of these diseases, and equine immunity to herpesviral infection. This report highlights the new information that was the focus of this workshop, and is intended to summarize this material and identify the critical questions in the field. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The subfamily Aephnidiogeninae Yamaguti, 1934 (Digenea: Lepocreadiidae), its status and that of the genera Aephnidiogenes Nicoll, 1915, Holorchis Stossich, 1901, Austroholorchis n g, Pseudaephnidiogenes Yamaguti, 1971, Pseudoholorchis Yamaguti, 1958 and N

The status of all of the putative member genera of the subfamily Aephnidiogeninae is reconsidered, based mainly on the morphology of the terminal genitalia, Aephnidiogenes Nicoll, 1915 is the only genus retained in the Aaephnidiogeninae. Aephnidiogenes major Yamaguti, 1934 from Diagramma labiosum from the southern Great Barrier Reef is redescribed with particular reference to the terminal genitalia, and is shown to lack a true cirrussac, a condition considered to be diagnostic of the Aephnidiogeninae. Holorchis Stossich, 1901 is placed in the subfamily Lepidapedinae. Holorchis pycnoporus Stossich, 1901 from Pagellus acarne from off Spanish Sahara and from Diplodus vulgaris from off Italy and H. legendrei Dollfus, 1946 from Sparodon durbanensis and D. sargus from off eastern Cape Province, South Africa and from Pagellus erythrinus from the Adriatic Sea and Italy are studied and illustrated. The terminal genitalia of H. pycnoporus are found to be enigmatic, but those of H. legendrei are found to fit clearly into the 'Lepidapedon-like' pattern. A new genus Austroholorchis is erected in the Lepidapedinae, with A. sprenti (Gibson, 1987) n. comb. as the type-species. Its diagnostic features are its ani, infundibuliform oral sucker and the position of the ovary at about mid-level of the uterus. A. sprenti is illustrated, its hosts in Queensland waters being Sillago maculata, S, analis and S. ciliata. A, levis n. sp. is described from Sillago bassensis from south-western Western Australia. The genus Pseudaephnidiogenes Yamaguti, 1971 is placed in the Lepidapedinae. P. rhabdosargi (Prudhoe, 1956) from Rhabdosargus sarba from off Natal, South Africa is illustrated and the terminal genitalia of P. rhabdosargi from R. sarba and from R. holubi from off eastern Cape Province and Pseudaephnidiogenes vossi Bray, 1985 from Caffrogobius nudiceps from off eastern Cape Province, South Africa are illustrated. The genus Pseudoholorchis Yamaguti, 1958 is placed in the subfamily Lepocreadiinae. The terminal genitalia of P. pulcher (Manter, 1954) from Latridopsis ciliaris from New Zealand are illustrated, The genus Neolepocreadium Thomas, 1960 is placed in the Lepocreadiidae.

Sexual behaviours and the risk of head and neck cancers: a pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium

Background Sexual contact may be the means by which head and neck cancer patients are exposed to human papillomavirus (HPV). Methods We undertook a pooled analysis of four population-based and four hospital-based case-control studies from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium, with participants from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Cuba, India, Italy, Spain, Poland, Puerto Rico, Russia and the USA. The study included 5642 head and neck cancer cases and 6069 controls. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) of associations between cancer and specific sexual behaviours, including practice of oral sex, number of lifetime sexual partners and oral sex partners, age at sexual debut, a history of same-sex contact and a history of oral-anal contact. Findings were stratified by sex and disease subsite. Results Cancer of the oropharynx was associated with having a history of six or more lifetime sexual partners [OR = 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01, 1.54] and four or more lifetime oral sex partners (OR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.42, 3.58). Cancer of the tonsil was associated with four or more lifetime oral sex partners (OR = 3.36, 95 % CI 1.32, 8.53), and, among men, with ever having oral sex (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.09, 2.33) and with an earlier age at sexual debut (OR = 2.36, 95% CI 1.37, 5.05). Cancer of the base of the tongue was associated with ever having oral sex among women (OR = 4.32, 95% CI 1.06, 17.6), having two sexual partners in comparison with only one (OR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.19, 3.46) and, among men, with a history of same-sex sexual contact (OR = 8.89, 95% CI 2.14, 36.8). Conclusions Sexual behaviours are associated with cancer risk at the head and neck cancer subsites that have previously been associated with HPV infection.

Interaction between Tobacco and Alcohol Use and the Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: Pooled Analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium

Background: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. Methods: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). Results: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases < 45 years, 73% for cases > 60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). Conclusions: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(2):541-50)

A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Lifetime Comorbidity in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

Context: Although numerous studies have examined the role of latent variables in the structure of comorbidity among mental disorders, none has examined their role in the development of comorbidity. Objective: To study the role of latent variables in the development of comorbidity among 18 lifetime DSM-IV disorders in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Design: Nationally or regionally representative community surveys. Setting: Fourteen countries. Participants: A total of 21 229 survey respondents. Main Outcome Measures: First onset of 18 lifetime DSM-IV anxiety, mood, behavior, and substance disorders assessed retrospectively in the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Results: Separate internalizing (anxiety and mood disorders) and externalizing (behavior and substance disorders) factors were found in exploratory factor analysis of lifetime disorders. Consistently significant positive time-lagged associations were found in survival analyses for virtually all temporally primary lifetime disorders predicting subsequent onset of other disorders. Within-domain (ie, internalizing or externalizing) associations were generally stronger than between-domain associations. Most time-lagged associations were explained by a model that assumed the existence of mediating latent internalizing and externalizing variables. Specific phobia and obsessive-compulsive disorder (internalizing) and hyperactivity and oppositional defiant disorders (externalizing) were the most important predictors. A small number of residual associations remained significant after controlling the latent variables. Conclusions: The good fit of the latent variable model suggests that common causal pathways account for most of the comorbidity among the disorders considered herein. These common pathways should be the focus of future research on the development of comorbidity, although several important pairwise associations that cannot be accounted for by latent variables also exist that warrant further focused study.

Twelve-Month Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Associations of serious mental illness with earnings: results from the WHO World Mental Health surveys

Background Burden-of-illness data, which are often used in setting healthcare policy-spending priorities, are unavailable for mental disorders in most countries. Aims To examine one central aspect of illness burden, the association of serious mental illness with earnings, in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Method The WMH Surveys were carried out in 10 high-income and 9 low- and middle-income countries. The associations of personal earnings with serious mental illness were estimated. Results Respondents with serious mental illness earned on average a third less than median earnings, with no significant between-country differences (chi(2)(9)=5.5-8.1, P=0.5-0.79). These losses are equivalent to 0.3-0.8% of total national earnings. Reduced earnings among those with earnings and the increased probability of not earning are both important components of these associations: Conclusions These results add to a growing body of evidence that mental disorders have high societal costs. Decisions about healthcare resource allocation should take these costs into consideration.

Childhood adversities as risk factors for onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.