Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Departure of high temperature iron lines from the equilibrium state in flaring solar plasmas

The aim of this study is to clarify if the assumption of ionization equilibrium and a Maxwellian electron energy distribution is valid in flaring solar plasmas. We analyze the 2014 December 20 X1.8 flare, in which the \ion{Fe}{xxi} 187~\AA, \ion{Fe}{xxii} 253~\AA, \ion{Fe}{xxiii} 263~\AA\ and \ion{Fe}{xxiv} 255~\AA\ emission lines were simultaneously observed by the EUV Imaging Spectrometer onboard the Hinode satellite. Intensity ratios among these high temperature Fe lines are compared and departures from isothermal conditions and ionization equilibrium examined. Temperatures derived from intensity ratios involving these four lines show significant discrepancies at the flare footpoints in the impulsive phase, and at the looptop in the gradual phase. Among these, the temperature derived from the \ion{Fe}{xxii}/\ion{Fe}{xxiv} intensity ratio is the lowest, which cannot be explained if we assume a Maxwellian electron distribution and ionization equilibrium, even in the case of a multi-thermal structure. This result suggests that the assumption of ionization equilibrium and/or a Maxwellian electron energy distribution can be violated in evaporating solar plasma around 10MK.

Temperature and the synchrony of plant-insect interactions

Increasing temperatures resulting from climate change have within recent years been shown to advance phenological events in a large number of species worldwide. Species can differ in their response to increasing temperatures, and understanding the mechanisms that determine the response is therefore of great importance in order to understand and predict how a warming climate can influence both individual species, but also their interactions with each other and the environment. Understanding the mechanisms behind responses to increasing temperatures are however largely unexplored. The selected study system consisting of host plant species of the Brassicaceae family and their herbivore Anthocharis cardamines, is assumed to be especially vulnerable to climatic variations. Through the use of this study system, the aim of this thesis is to study differences in the effect of temperature on development to start of flowering within host plant species from different latitudinal regions (study I), and among host plant species (study II). We also investigate whether different developmental phases leading up to flowering differ in sensitivity to temperature (study II), and if small-scale climatic variation in spring temperature influence flowering phenology and interactions with A. cardamines (study III). Finally, we investigate if differences in the timing of A. cardamines relative to its host plants influence host species use and the selection of host individuals differing in phenology within populations (study IV). Our results showed that thermal reaction norms differ among regions along a latitudinal gradient, with the host plant species showing a mixture of co-, counter- and mixed gradient patterns (study I). We also showed that observed differences in the host plant species order of flowering among regions and years might be caused by both differences in the distribution of warm days during development and differences in the sensitivity to temperature in different phases of development (study II). In addition, we showed that small-scale variations in temperature led to variation in flowering phenology among and within populations of C. pratensis, impacting the interactions with the butterfly herbivore A. cardamines. Another result was that the less the mean plant development stage of a given plant species in the field deviated from the stage preferred by the butterfly for oviposition, the more used was the species as a host by the butterfly (study IV). Finally, we showed that the later seasonal appearance of the butterflies relative to their host plants, the higher butterfly preference for host plant individuals with a later phenology, corresponding to a preference for host plants in earlier development stages (study IV). For our study system, this thesis suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the interactions between host plants and herbivore, but that differences in phenology among host plants combined with changes in host species use of the herbivore might buffer the herbivore against negative effects of climate change. Our work highlights the need to understand the mechanisms behind differences in the responses of developmental rates to temperature between interacting species, as well as the need to account for differences in temperature response for interacting organisms from different latitudinal origins and during different developmental phases in order to understand and predict the consequences of climate change. 

Ecological health analysis of Caspian marine environment based on the diversity and distribution pattern of meiofauna in the Mazandaran Province, Caspian Sea

Biodiversity and distribution of benthic meiofauna in the sediments of the Southern Caspian Sea (Mazandaran) was studied in order to introducing and determining of their relationship with the environmental factors. From 12 stations (ranging in depths 5, 10, 20 and 50 meters), sediment samples were gathered in 6 months (2012). Environmental factors of water near the bottom including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH were measured during sampling with CTD and grain size and total organic matter percentage and calcium carbonate were measured in laboratory. In different months, the average water temperature (9.52-23.93), dissolved oxygen (7.71-10.53 mg/L), salinity (10.57±0/07 and 10.75±0/04 ppt), pH (7.44±0/29 and 7.41±0/22), EC (17.97±0/12 and 18.30±0/04μs/cm2), TDS (8.92±0/04 and 9.14±0/02 mg/L), total organic matter (5.83±1/43 and 6.25±0/97%) and calcium carbonate (2.36±0/36 and 1.68±0/19%) were measured respectively. Structure of the sediment samples mostly consisted of fine sand; very fine sand, silt and clay. From the 4 group animals (Foraminifera, Crustacea, Worms and Mollusca), there were identified 40species belong to 29 genera of 25 families. The cosmopolitan foraminifer, Ammonia beccarii caspica, was common in all sampling stations. Result showed that depth was important factor on distribution of meiofauna. Most density of foraminifera and crustacean was observed in depth of 20m and for mollusca and worms observed in 5m. Shannon diversity index decreased with depth that showed in shallow water diversity was higher than deep water. Mean of maximum and minimum Shannon index was obsorvers in depth of 5m and 50 m that was measured in order 0.93 and 0.43. Account of Shannon index showed that this area is under pressure. Account of peioleo index showed distribution in this area was not steady.

Toxin and Growth Responses of the Neurotoxic Dinoflagellate Vulcanodinium rugosum to Varying Temperature and Salinity

Vulcanodinium rugosum, a recently described species, produces pinnatoxins. The IFR-VRU-01 strain, isolated from a French Mediterranean lagoon in 2010 and identified as the causative dinoflagellate contaminating mussels in the Ingril Lagoon (French Mediterranean) with pinnatoxin-G, was grown in an enriched natural seawater medium. We tested the effect of temperature and salinity on growth, pinnatoxin-G production and chlorophyll a levels of this dinoflagellate. These factors were tested in combinations of five temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 °C) and five salinities (20, 25, 30, 35 and 40) at an irradiance of 100 µmol photon m−2 s−1. V. rugosum can grow at temperatures and salinities ranging from 20 °C to 30 °C and 20 to 40, respectively. The optimal combination for growth (0.39 ± 0.11 d−1) was a temperature of 25 °C and a salinity of 40. Results suggest that V. rugosum is euryhaline and thermophile which could explain why this dinoflagellate develops in situ only from June to September. V. rugosum growth rate and pinnatoxin-G production were highest at temperatures ranging between 25 and 30 °C. This suggests that the dinoflagellate may give rise to extensive blooms in the coming decades caused by the climate change-related increases in temperature expected in the Mediterranean coasts.

Intraspecific individual variation of temperature tolerance associated with oxygen demand in the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

The European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is an economically important fish native to the Mediterranean and Northern Atlantic. Its complex life cycle involves many migrations through temperature gradients that affect the energetic demands of swimming. Previous studies have shown large intraspecific variation in swimming performance and temperature tolerance, which could include deleterious and advantageous traits under the evolutionary pressure of climate change. However, little is known of the underlying determinants of this individual variation. We investigated individual variation in temperature tolerance in 30 sea bass by exposing them to a warm temperature challenge test. The eight most temperature-tolerant and eight most temperature-sensitive fish were then studied further to determine maximal swimming speed (U-CAT), aerobic scope and post-exercise oxygen consumption. Finally, ventricular contractility in each group was determined using isometric muscle preparations. The temperature-tolerant fish showed lower resting oxygen consumption rates, possessed larger hearts and initially recovered from exhaustive exercise faster than the temperature-sensitive fish. Thus, whole-animal temperature tolerance was associated with important performance traits. However, the temperature-tolerant fish also demonstrated poorer maximal swimming capacity (i.e. lower UCAT) than their temperature-sensitive counterparts, which may indicate a trade-off between temperature tolerance and swimming performance. Interestingly, the larger relative ventricular mass of the temperature-tolerant fish did not equate to greater ventricular contractility, suggesting that larger stroke volumes, rather than greater contractile strength, may be associated with thermal tolerance in this species.

Statistical Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll-a Concentration Patterns in the Gulf of Tadjourah (Djibouti)

The sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL-a) were analysed in the Gulf of Tadjourah from two set of 8-day composite satellite data, respectively from 2008 to 2012 and from 2005 to 2011. A singular spectrum analysis (SSA) shows that the annual cycle of SST is strong (74.3% of variance) and consists of warming (April-October) and cooling (November-March) of about 2.5C than the long-term average. The semi-annual cycle captures only 14.6% of temperature variance and emphasises the drop of SST during July-August. Similarly, the annual cycle of CHL-a (29.7% of variance) depicts high CHL-a from June to October and low concentration from November to May. In addition, the first spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of SST (93% of variance) shows that the seasonal warming/cooling is in phase across the whole study area but the southeastern part always remaining warmer or cooler. In contrast to the SST, the first EOF of CHL-a (54.1% of variance) indicates the continental shelf in phase opposition with the offshore area in winter during which the CHL-a remains sequestrated in the coastal area particularly in the south-east and in the Ghoubet Al-Kharab Bay. Inversely during summer, higher CHL-a quantities appear in the offshore waters. In order to investigate processes generating these patterns, a multichannel spectrum analysis was applied to a set of oceanic (SST, CHL-a) and atmospheric parameters (wind speed, air temperature and air specific humidity). This analysis shows that the SST is well correlated to the atmospheric parameters at an annual scale. The windowed cross correlation indicates that this correlation is significant only from October to May. During this period, the warming was related to the solar heating of the surface water when the wind is low (April-May and October) while the cooling (November-March) was linked to the strong and cold North-East winds and to convective mixing. The summer drop in SST followed by a peak of CHL-a, seems strongly correlated to the upwelling. The second EOF modes of SST and CHL-a explain respectively 1.3% and 5% of the variance and show an east-west gradient during winter that is reversed during summer. This work showed that the seasonal signals have a wide spatial influence and dominate the variability of the SST and CHL-a while the east-west gradient are specific for the Gulf of Tadjourah and seem induced by the local wind modulated by the topography.

Ecological distribution of the shrimp Nematopalaemon schmitti (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea) in three bays on the south-eastern coast of Brazil

The relationships between the spatial and temporal variations in the abundance of the shrimp Nematopalaemon schmitti and water temperature, salinity, and texture and organic-matter content of the sediment, were analysed in Ubatumirim, Ubatuba and Mar Virado bays on the northern coast of São Paulo, Brazil. Sampling was carried out monthly, from January 1998 through December 1999, from a shrimp boat equipped with double-rig nets, along six transects in each bay. In total, 2 116 specimens of N. schmitti were caught. Their distribution differed among bays, transects and seasons (ANOVA, p < 0.05). Highest total abundance was found in areas of high organic-matter content, in substrate composed mainly of very fine sand and silt and clay, and during winter and autumn. Although multiple regression analysis showed no significant relationship (p > 0.05), observations suggest that water temperature, sediment texture, organic-matter content, and the presence of biodetritus and plant fragments, provided favourable environmental conditions for the establishment of N. schmitti in the region.

Large-scale prediction of seagrass distribution: the case of Cymodocea nodosa (Mediterranean-Atlantic)

Understanding the factors that affect seagrass meadows encompassing their entire range of distribution is challenging yet important for their conservation. We model the environmental niche of Cymodocea nodosa using a combination of environmental variables and landscape metrics to examine factors defining its distribution and find suitable habitats for the species. The most relevant environmental variables defining the distribution of C. nodosa were sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. We found suitable habitats at SST from 5.8 ºC to 26.4 ºC and salinity ranging from 17.5 to 39.3. Optimal values of mean winter wave height ranged between 1.2 m and 1.5 m, while waves higher than 2.5 m seemed to limit the presence of the species. The influence of nutrients and pH, despite having weight on the models, was not so clear in terms of ranges that confine the distribution of the species. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. By contrasting predictive approaches, we defined the variables affecting the distributional areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. These findings are encouraging for its use in future studies on climate-related marine range shifts and meadow restoration projects of these fragile ecosystems.

Assessing canopy temperature patterns in two grapevine varieties subjected to deficit irrigation: a tool to optimize water management ?

A better understanding of grapevine responses to drought and high air temperatures can help to optimize vineyard management to improve water use efficiency, yield and berry quality. Faster and robust field phenotyping tools are needed in modern precision viticulture, in particular in dry and hot regions such as the Mediterranean. Canopy temperature (Tc) is commonly used to monitor water stress in plants/crops and to characterize stomatal physiology in different woody species including Vitis vinifera. Thermography permits remote determination of leaf surface or canopy temperature in the field and also to assess the range and spatial distribution of temperature from different parts of the canopies. Our hypothesis is that grapevine genotypes may show different Tc patterns along the day due to different stomatal behaviour and heat dissipation strategies. We have monitored the diurnal and seasonal course of Tc in two grapevine genotypes, Aragonez (syn. Tempranillo) and Touriga Nacional subjected to deficit irrigation under typical Mediterranean climate conditions. Temperature measurements were complemented by determination of the diurnal course of leaf water potential (ψleaf) and leaf gas exchange. Measurements were done in two seasons (2013 and 2014) at different phenological stages: i) mid-June (green berry stage), ii) mid-July (veraison), iii) early August (early ripening) and iv) before harvest (late ripening). Correlations between Tc and minimal stomatal conductance will be presented for the two genotypes along the day. Results are discussed over the use of thermal imagery to derive information on genotype physiology in response to changing environmental conditions and to mild water stress induced by deficit irrigation. Strategies to optimize the use of thermal imaging in field conditions are also proposed

Multifunctional Nanoparticles in Cancer: in vitro Characterization, in vivo Distribution

A novel biocompatible and biodegradable polymer, termed poly(Glycerol malate co-dodecanedioate) (PGMD), was prepared by thermal condensation method and used for fabrication of nanoparticles (NPs). PGMD NPs were prepared using the single oil emulsion technique and loaded with an imaging/hyperthermia agent (IR820) and a chemotherapeutic agent (doxorubicin, DOX). The size of the void PGMD NPs, IR820-PGMD NPs and DOX-IR820-PGMD NPs were approximately 90 nm, 110 nm, and 125 nm respectively. An acidic environment (pH=5.0) induced higher DOX and IR820 release compared to pH=7.4. DOX release was also enhanced by exposure to laser, which increased the temperature to 42°C. Cytotoxicity of DOX-IR820-PGMD NPs was comparable in MES-SA but was higher in Dx5 cells compared to free DOX plus IR820 (pIn vivomouse studies showed that NP formulation significantly improved the plasma half-life of IR820 after tail vein injection. Significant lower IR820 content was observed in kidney in DOX-IR820-PGMD NP treatment as compared to free IR820 treatment in our biodistribution studies (p

Synthesis of indium nanoparticles at ambient temperature; simultaneous phase transfer and ripening

The synthesis of size-monodispersed indium nanoparticles via an innovative simultaneous phase transfer and ripening method is reported. The formation of nanoparticles occurs in a one-step process instead of well-known two-step phase transfer approaches. The synthesis involves the reduction of InCl3 with LiBH4 at ambient temperature and although the reduction occurs at room temperature, fine indium nanoparticles, with a mean diameter of 6.4 ± 0.4 nm, were obtained directly in non-polar n-dodecane. The direct synthesis of indium nanoparticles in n-dodecane facilitates their fast formation and enhances their size-monodispersity. In addition, the nanoparticles were highly stable for more than 2 months. The nanoparticles were characterised by dynamic light scattering (DLS), small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy to determine their morphology, structure and phase purity.

Effect of room temperature transport vials on DNA quality and phylogenetic composition of faecal microbiota of elderly adults and infants

Background: Alterations in intestinal microbiota have been correlated with a growing number of diseases. Investigating the faecal microbiota is widely used as a non-invasive and ethically simple proxy for intestinal biopsies. There is an urgent need for collection and transport media that would allow faecal sampling at distance from the processing laboratory, obviating the need for same-day DNA extraction recommended by previous studies of freezing and processing methods for stool. We compared the faecal bacterial DNA quality and apparent phylogenetic composition derived using a commercial kit for stool storage and transport (DNA Genotek OMNIgene GUT) with that of freshly extracted samples, 22 from infants and 20 from older adults. Results: Use of the storage vials increased the quality of extracted bacterial DNA by reduction of DNA shearing. When infant and elderly datasets were examined separately, no differences in microbiota composition were observed due to storage. When the two datasets were combined, there was a difference according to a Wilcoxon test in the relative proportions of Faecalibacterium, Sporobacter, Clostridium XVIII, and Clostridium XlVa after 1 week's storage compared to immediately extracted samples. After 2 weeks' storage, Bacteroides abundance was also significantly different, showing an apparent increase from week 1 to week 2. The microbiota composition of infant samples was more affected than that of elderly samples by storage, with significantly higher Spearman distances between paired freshly extracted and stored samples (p

Distribution modelling of wild rabbit hunting yields in its original area (S Iberian Peninsula)

In this work we used the information of the Annual Hunting Reports (AHRs) to obtain a high-resolution model of the potential favourableness for wild rabbit harvesting in Andalusia (southern Spain), using environmental and land-use variables as predictors. We analysed 32,134 AHRs from the period 1993/2001 reported by 6049 game estates to estimate the average hunting yields of wild rabbit in each Andalusian municipality (n5771). We modelled the favourableness for obtaining good hunting yields using stepwise logistic regression on a set of climatic, orographical, land use, and vegetation variables. The favourability equation was used to create a downscaled image representing the favourableness of obtaining good hunting yields for the wild rabbit in 161 km squares in Andalusia, using the Idrisi Image Calculator. The variables that affected hunting yields of wild rabbit were altitude, dry wood crops (mainly olive groves, almond groves, and vineyards), temperature, pasture, slope, and annual number of frost days. The 161 km squares with high favourableness values are scattered throughout the territory, which seems to be caused mainly by the effect of vegetation. Finally, we obtained quality categories for the territory by combining the probability values given by logistic regression with those of the environmental favourability function.

Modelling the distribution of Bonelli's eagle in Spain: Implications for conservation planning

Bonelli’s eagle, Hieraaetus fasciatus , has recently suffered a severe population decline and is currently endangered. Spain supports about 70% of the European population. We used stepwise logistic regression on a set of environmental, spatial and human variables to model Bonelli’s eagle distribution in the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km quadrats of peninsular Spain. We obtained a model based on 16 variables, which allowed us to identify favourable and unfavourable areas for this species in Spain, as well as intermediate favourability areas. We assessed the stepwise progression of the model by comparing the model’s predictions in each step with those of the final model, and selected a parsimonious explanatory model based on three variables — slope, July temperature and precipitation — comprising 76% of the predictive capacity of the