964 resultados para Survival analysis (Biometry) Mathematical models


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BACKGROUND: Estimates of drug resistance incidence to modern first-line combination antiretroviral therapies against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 are complicated by limited availability of genotypic drug resistance tests (GRTs) and uncertain timing of resistance emergence. METHODS: Five first-line combinations were studied (all paired with lamivudine or emtricitabine): efavirenz (EFV) plus zidovudine (AZT) (n = 524); EFV plus tenofovir (TDF) (n = 615); lopinavir (LPV) plus AZT (n = 573); LPV plus TDF (n = 301); and ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (ATZ/r) plus TDF (n = 250). Virological treatment outcomes were classified into 3 risk strata for emergence of resistance, based on whether undetectable HIV RNA levels were maintained during therapy and, if not, whether viral loads were >500 copies/mL during treatment. Probabilities for presence of resistance mutations were estimated from GRTs (n = 2876) according to risk stratum and therapy received at time of testing. On the basis of these data, events of resistance emergence were imputed for each individual and were assessed using survival analysis. Imputation was repeated 100 times, and results were summarized by median values (2.5th-97.5th percentile range). RESULTS: Six years after treatment initiation, EFV plus AZT showed the highest cumulative resistance incidence (16%) of all regimens (<11%). Confounder-adjusted Cox regression confirmed that first-line EFV plus AZT (reference) was associated with a higher median hazard for resistance emergence, compared with other treatments: EFV plus TDF (hazard ratio [HR], 0.57; range, 0.42-0.76), LPV plus AZT (HR, 0.63; range, 0.45-0.89), LPV plus TDF (HR, 0.55; range, 0.33-0.83), ATZ/r plus TDF (HR, 0.43; range, 0.17-0.83). Two-thirds of resistance events were associated with detectable HIV RNA level ≤500 copies/mL during treatment, and only one-third with virological failure (HIV RNA level, >500 copies/mL). CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of TDF instead of AZT and ATZ/r was correlated with lower rates of resistance emergence, most likely because of improved tolerability and pharmacokinetics resulting from a once-daily dosage.

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BACKGROUND: The occurence of the metabolic syndrome (MS) between the renal receptors is one of the major complications after transplantation and is associated with an increased risk of graft failure and high rates of obesity and diabetes new appearance. AIMS: This study aims to investigate the prevalence and risk factors associated with the development of the MS and to evaluate the association between the same with the allograft dysfunction. METHODS: The samples consisted of 138 renal transplant patients, 83 men and 55 women, kidney transplant, which was attended by over five years for the transplant consultation. Were analyzed as potential risk factors for MS: age, sex, body mass index (BMI), weight, hypertension, diabetes, LDL, HDL, triglycerides in serum and immunosuppressive therapy (cyclosporine, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil), was also assessed the prevalence of acute rejection episodes and renal function. RESULTS: The prevalence of MS was 39.85 %. As statistically significant risk factors were obtained the BMI, overweight, HDL cholesterol levels, triglycerides and LDL as well as hypertension and diabetes. There were high rates of acute rejection and differences in story to the glomerular filtration rate. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high prevalence of the MS that severely compromised renal function and graft survival in renal transplant patients, it is very important the control and strict monitoring of all risk factors identified.

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Background: Protein calorie malnutrition as well as systemic inflammation and metabolic disorders are common among patients with chronic renal failure undergoing renal replacement therapy (haemodialysis), which contributes to its morbidity and mortality. Aims: The aims of this work was to evaluate the nutritional status of patients in a hemodialysis treatment through the assessment of biochemical parameters nutritional as albumin, and anthropometric parameters of body mass index during ten years of follow up. Methods: In this work has been followed 90 patients of both sexes with chronic kidney disease who were treated with hemodialysis regularly on our unit for ten years. All patients were conducted quarterly measurements of plasma albumin (Alb), and other biochemical determinations, and anthropometric measurements of height, weight and body mass index calculated by the formula weight/height², grouped n BMI < 23 kg/m2 and albumin levels <3.8 g/dl according to the consensus of the panel of experts of the International Society for renal Nutrition and metabolism. Results: During the 10 years all patients showed a significant decline in the biochemical parameters and the albumin, change in BMI does not presented significant changes in relation to malnutrition. Conclusions: Malnutrition in patients on dialysis is a fact patent, BMI does not correspond with the biochemical parameters were observed, for what nutritional impairment in these patients is mainly expressed by serum albumin.

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BACKGROUND The combined inhibition of BRAF and MEK is hypothesized to improve clinical outcomes in patients with melanoma by preventing or delaying the onset of resistance observed with BRAF inhibitors alone. This randomized phase 3 study evaluated the combination of the BRAF inhibitor vemurafenib and the MEK inhibitor cobimetinib. METHODS We randomly assigned 495 patients with previously untreated unresectable locally advanced or metastatic BRAF V600 mutation-positive melanoma to receive vemurafenib and cobimetinib (combination group) or vemurafenib and placebo (control group). The primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival. RESULTS The median progression-free survival was 9.9 months in the combination group and 6.2 months in the control group (hazard ratio for death or disease progression, 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.68; P<0.001). The rate of complete or partial response in the combination group was 68%, as compared with 45% in the control group (P<0.001), including rates of complete response of 10% in the combination group and 4% in the control group. Progression-free survival as assessed by independent review was similar to investigator-assessed progression-free survival. Interim analyses of overall survival showed 9-month survival rates of 81% (95% CI, 75 to 87) in the combination group and 73% (95% CI, 65 to 80) in the control group. Vemurafenib and cobimetinib was associated with a nonsignificantly higher incidence of adverse events of grade 3 or higher, as compared with vemurafenib and placebo (65% vs. 59%), and there was no significant difference in the rate of study-drug discontinuation. The number of secondary cutaneous cancers decreased with the combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS The addition of cobimetinib to vemurafenib was associated with a significant improvement in progression-free survival among patients with BRAF V600-mutated metastatic melanoma, at the cost of some increase in toxicity. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche/Genentech; coBRIM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01689519.).

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The fitness and virulence costs associated with the clinical acquisition of colistin resistance by Acinetobacter baumannii were evaluated. The growth of strain CR17 (colistin resistant) was less than that of strain CS01 (colistin susceptible) when the strains were grown in competition (72-h competition index, 0.008). In a murine sepsis model, CS01 and CR17 reached spleen concentrations when coinfecting of 9.31 and 6.97 log10 CFU/g, respectively, with an in vivo competition index of 0.016. Moreover, CS01 was more virulent than CR17 with respect to mortality and time to death.

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The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

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Piecewise linear models systems arise as mathematical models of systems in many practical applications, often from linearization for nonlinear systems. There are two main approaches of dealing with these systems according to their continuous or discrete-time aspects. We propose an approach which is based on the state transformation, more particularly the partition of the phase portrait in different regions where each subregion is modeled as a two-dimensional linear time invariant system. Then the Takagi-Sugeno model, which is a combination of local model is calculated. The simulation results show that the Alpha partition is well-suited for dealing with such a system

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Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is the main complication after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation. Although the tissue damage and subsequent patient mortality are clearly dependent on T lymphocytes present in the grafted inoculum, the lethal effector molecules are unknown. Here, we show that acute lethal GVHD, induced by the transfer of splenocytes from C57BL/6 mice into sensitive BALB/c recipients, is dependent on both perforin and Fas ligand (FasL)-mediated lytic pathways. When spleen cells from mutant mice lacking both effector molecules were transferred to sublethally irradiated allogeneic recipients, mice survived. Delayed mortality was observed with grafted cells deficient in only one lytic mediator. In contrast, protection from lethal acute GVHD in resistant mice was exclusively perforin dependent. Perforin-FasL-deficient T cells failed to lyse most target cells in vitro. However, they still efficiently killed tumor necrosis factor alpha-sensitive fibroblasts, demonstrating that cytotoxic T cells possess a third lytic pathway.

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We derive analytical expressions for the propagation speed of downward combustion fronts of thin solid fuels with a background flow initially at rest. The classical combustion model for thin solid fuels that consists of five coupled reaction-convection-diffusion equations is here reduced into a single equation with the gas temperature as the single variable. For doing so we apply a two-zone combustion model that divides the system into a preheating region and a pyrolyzing region. The speed of the combustion front is obtained after matching the temperature and its derivative at the location that separates both regions.We also derive a simplified version of this analytical expression expected to be valid for a wide range of cases. Flame front velocities predicted by our analyticalexpressions agree well with experimental data found in the literature for a large variety of cases and substantially improve the results obtained from a previous well-known analytical expression

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We present the derivation of the continuous-time equations governing the limit dynamics of discrete-time reaction-diffusion processes defined on heterogeneous metapopulations. We show that, when a rigorous time limit is performed, the lack of an epidemic threshold in the spread of infections is not limited to metapopulations with a scale-free architecture, as it has been predicted from dynamical equations in which reaction and diffusion occur sequentially in time

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BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer (BTC) is a rare cancer in Europe and North America, characterized by wide geographic variation, with high incidence in some areas of Latin America and Asia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: BTC mortality and incidence have been updated according to recent data, using joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: Since the 1980s, decreasing trends in BTC mortality rates (age-standardized, world standard population) were observed in the European Union as a whole, in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand, and the United States, and high-risk countries such as Japan and Venezuela. Joinpoint regression analysis indicates that decreasing trends were more favorable over recent calendar periods. High-mortality rates are, however, still evident in central and eastern Europe (4-5/100,000 women), Japan (4/100,000 women), and Chile (16.6/100,000 women). Incidence rates identified other high-risk areas in India (8.5/100,000 women), Korea (5.6/100,000 women), and Shanghai, China (5.2/100,000 women). CONCLUSIONS: The decreasing BTC mortality trends essentially reflect more widespread and earlier adoption of cholecystectomy in several countries, since gallstones are the major risk factor for BTC. There are, however, high-risk areas, mainly from South America and India, where access to gall-bladder surgery remains inadequate.

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The front speed of the Neolithic (farmer) spread in Europe decreased as it reached Northern latitudes, where the Mesolithic (huntergatherer) population density was higher. Here, we describe a reaction diffusion model with (i) an anisotropic dispersion kernel depending on the Mesolithicpopulation density gradient and (ii) a modified population growth equation. Both effects are related to the space available for the Neolithic population. The model is able to explain the slowdown of the Neolithic front as observed from archaeological data

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Most integrodifference models of biological invasions are based on the nonoverlapping-generations approximation. However, the effect of multiple reproduction events overlapping generations on the front speed can be very important especially for species with a long life spam . Only in one-dimensional space has this approximation been relaxed previously, although almost all biological invasions take place in two dimensions. Here we present a model that takes into account the overlapping generations effect or, more generally, the stage structure of the population , and we analyze the main differences with the corresponding nonoverlappinggenerations results

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Forest fire models have been widely studied from the context of self-organized criticality and from the ecological properties of the forest and combustion. On the other hand, reaction-diffusion equations have interesting applications in biology and physics. We propose here a model for fire propagation in a forest by using hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations. The dynamical and thermodynamical aspects of the model are analyzed in detail

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A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion