Latent Variable Models for Stochastic Discount Factors.

Latent variable models in finance originate both from asset pricing theory and time series analysis. These two strands of literature appeal to two different concepts of latent structures, which are both useful to reduce the dimension of a statistical model specified for a multivariate time series of asset prices. In the CAPM or APT beta pricing models, the dimension reduction is cross-sectional in nature, while in time-series state-space models, dimension is reduced longitudinally by assuming conditional independence between consecutive returns, given a small number of state variables. In this paper, we use the concept of Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) or pricing kernel as a unifying principle to integrate these two concepts of latent variables. Beta pricing relations amount to characterize the factors as a basis of a vectorial space for the SDF. The coefficients of the SDF with respect to the factors are specified as deterministic functions of some state variables which summarize their dynamics. In beta pricing models, it is often said that only the factorial risk is compensated since the remaining idiosyncratic risk is diversifiable. Implicitly, this argument can be interpreted as a conditional cross-sectional factor structure, that is, a conditional independence between contemporaneous returns of a large number of assets, given a small number of factors, like in standard Factor Analysis. We provide this unifying analysis in the context of conditional equilibrium beta pricing as well as asset pricing with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rates and other state variables. We address the general issue of econometric specifications of dynamic asset pricing models, which cover the modern literature on conditionally heteroskedastic factor models as well as equilibrium-based asset pricing models with an intertemporal specification of preferences and market fundamentals. We interpret various instantaneous causality relationships between state variables and market fundamentals as leverage effects and discuss their central role relative to the validity of standard CAPM-like stock pricing and preference-free option pricing.

Harsanyi’s Social Aggregation Theorem : A Multi-Profile Approach with Variable-Population Extensions

This paper provides new versions of Harsanyi’s social aggregation theorem that are formulated in terms of prospects rather than lotteries. Strengthening an earlier result, fixed-population ex-ante utilitarianism is characterized in a multi-profile setting with fixed probabilities. In addition, we extend the social aggregation theorem to social-evaluation problems under uncertainty with a variable population and generalize our approach to uncertain alternatives, which consist of compound vectors of probability distributions and prospects.

A Theory of Random Consumer Demand

This paper presents a new theory of random consumer demand. The primitive is a collection of probability distributions, rather than a binary preference. Various assumptions constrain these distributions, including analogues of common assumptions about preferences such as transitivity, monotonicity and convexity. Two results establish a complete representation of theoretically consistent random demand. The purpose of this theory of random consumer demand is application to empirical consumer demand problems. To this end, the theory has several desirable properties. It is intrinsically stochastic, so the econometrician can apply it directly without adding extrinsic randomness in the form of residuals. Random demand is parsimoniously represented by a single function on the consumption set. Finally, we have a practical method for statistical inference based on the theory, described in McCausland (2004), a companion paper.

Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

The shunt from the cyclooxygenase to lipoxygenase pathway in human osteoarthritic subchondral osteoblasts is linked with a variable expression of the 5-lipoxygenase-activating protein

Affiliation: Unité de recherche en Arthrose, Centre de recherche du Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal, Hôpital Notre-Dame

Etude théorique des propriétés électroniques et optiques des super-réseaux de Si/SiO2

FRANCAIS: L'observation d'une intense luminescence dans les super-réseaux de Si/SiO2 a ouvert de nouvelles avenues en recherche théorique des matériaux à base de silicium, pour des applications éventuelles en optoélectronique. Le silicium dans sa phase cristalline possède un gap indirect, le rendant ainsi moins intéressant vis-à-vis d'autres matériaux luminescents. Concevoir des matériaux luminescents à base de silicium ouvrira donc la voie sur de multiples applications. Ce travail fait état de trois contributions au domaine. Premièrement, différents modèles de super-réseaux de Si/SiO2 ont été conçus et étudiés à l'aide de calculs ab initio afin d'en évaluer les propriétés structurales, électroniques et optiques. Les deux premiers modèles dérivés des structures cristallines du silicium et du dioxyde de silicium ont permis de démontrer l'importance du rôle de l'interface Si/SiO2 sur les propriétés optiques. De nouveaux modèles structurellement relaxés ont alors été construits afin de mieux caractériser les interfaces et ainsi mieux évaluer la portée du confinement sur les propriétés optiques. Deuxièmement, un gap direct dans les modèles structurellement relaxés a été obtenu. Le calcul de l'absorption (par l'application de la règle d'or de Fermi) a permis de confirmer que les propriétés d'absorption (et d'émission) du silicium cristallin sont améliorées lorsque celui-ci est confiné par le SiO2. Un décalage vers le bleu avec accroissement du confinement a aussi été observé. Une étude détaillée du rôle des atomes sous-oxydés aux interfaces a de plus été menée. Ces atomes ont le double effet d'accroître légèrement le gap d'énergie et d'aplanir la structure électronique près du niveau de Fermi. Troisièmement, une application directe de la théorique des transitions de Slater, une approche issue de la théorie de la fonctionnelle de la densité pour des ensembles, a été déterminée pour le silicium cristallin puis comparée aux mesures d'absorption par rayons X. Une très bonne correspondance entre cette théorie et l'expérience est observée. Ces calculs ont été appliqués aux super-réseaux afin d'estimer et caractériser leurs propriétés électroniques dans la zone de confinement, dans les bandes de conduction.

From Smeed's Single-Damage Fixed-Form Three-Variable Model to Multinational and Multiprovincial Drag-Type Formulations: Does the Mystery of 1972-1973 Disapear ?

Rapport de recherche

Les erreurs de mesure sur la variable indépendante, dans le cadre de séries chronologiques.

Rapport de recherche