Carbon-14 wiggle-match dating of peat deposits: advantages and limitations

Carbon-14 wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a series of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. The method of WMD is discussed, and its advantages and limitations are compared with calibration of individual dates. A numerical approach to WMD is introduced that makes it possible to assess the precision of WMD chronologies. During several intervals of the Holocene, the 14C calibration curve shows less pronounced fluctuations. We assess whether wiggle-matching is also a feasible strategy for these parts of the 14C calibration curve. High-precision chronologies, such as obtainable with WMD, are needed for studies of rapid climate changes and their possible causes during the Holocene.

A Bayesian framework for age modeling of radiocarbon-dated peat deposits: Case studies from the Netherlands

Recently, Bayesian statistical software has been developed for age-depth modeling (wiggle-match dating) of sequences of densely spaced radiocarbon dates from peat cores. The method is described in non-statistical terms, and is compared with an alternative method of chronological ordering of 14C dates. Case studies include the dating of the start of agriculture in the northeastern part of the Netherlands, and of a possible Hekla-3 tephra layer in the same country. We discuss future enhancements in Bayesian age modeling.

A Family Booklet About Comfort Care in Advanced Dementia:Three-Country Evaluation

Objectives: To evaluate a booklet on comfort care in dementia from the perspective of family with relevant experience, and assess nursing home resident and family factors associated with evaluations. Design: Retrospective study. Setting: Long term care facilities in French-speaking Canada, and the Netherlands and Italy.
Participants: Bereaved family (n = 138).
Measurements: An 8-item scale assessed the booklet's acceptability. Usefulness was rated on a 0 to 10 scale, and perceived usefulness referred to usefulness if family had had the booklet during the resident's stay. Families indicated preferred ways of obtaining, and the most appropriate time to get the booklet.
Results: Almost all families (94%) perceived the booklet as useful. Canadian and Dutch families evaluated the booklet's contents and format favorably, whereas Italian families' evaluations were less favorable. Almost all families endorsed roles for physicians or nurses and about half additionally accepted availability through own initiative, in print or through the Internet. Preference of timing was highly variable. Better acceptability, usefulness, and availability through own initiative were independently associated with non-Italian nationality, presence of more physical signs discussed in the booklet, feeling ill-prepared, and higher satisfaction with care. A preference of receiving the booklet early was more likely in Italian families, those without university education, and those involved with older residents.
Conclusion: The booklet is suitable to inform Dutch and Canadian families on comfort care in dementia, but implementation in Italy requires further consideration. The booklet may be integrated in advance care planning in long term care, and made available outside long term care settings to serve families who wish to be informed early. © 2012 American Medical Directors Association, Inc.
Keywords: Decision aid; decision making; advance care planning; palliative care; nursing homes; dementia.

Physicians' and Nurses' Perceived Usefulness and Acceptability of a Family Information Booklet about Comfort Care in Advanced Dementia

Background: Families of patients with advanced dementia need to be informed about the course of the dementia and comfort care. Conditional for health care providers educating families is their knowledge and comfort in family education. Methods: Perceived usefulness and acceptability of a Canadian family booklet explaining possible complications and comfort care in dementia was assessed by physicians and nurses caring for dementia patients in 14 nursing homes in Lombardy, Italy and 21 in the Netherlands. The practitioners received a questionnaire and translated versions adapted to local practice where needed. In 10 of 21 Dutch homes, physicians evaluated only the original Canadian version in English. A 15-item scale assessed the booklet's acceptability, for example, to inform families, or for educational purposes. Perceived usefulness referred to proportion of families of dementia patients for whom the booklet would be useful. A total of 168 evaluations were available for multivariable regression analyses. Results: The practitioners anticipated that the booklet would be useful for most families. Evaluation of the Dutch translation of the booklet was similar to the English version. Country (Netherlands) and profession (nurses) were independently associated with better acceptability. Usefulness was perceived as better by Italian respondents and nurses, but only in analyses unadjusted for the higher educational needs of these respondents. Conclusion: Overall, the concept of written information on comfort care was appreciated by practitioners of European countries differing in attitudes toward end-of-life care. A booklet may help practitioners, and in particular nurses, in providing comfort care for dementia patients and their families. © Copyright 2011, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. 2011.

Educating families about end-of-life care in advanced dementia:Acceptability of a Canadian family booklet to nurses from Canada, France, and Japan

Background: The families of people with late-stage dementia need to be informed about the course of the dementia and the comfort/ palliative care option. A booklet was written for that purpose and can be provided to family members by physicians and nurses. Methods: The acceptability of the booklet for nurses was tested in Canada (French and English version), France (French Canadian version) and Japan (translated and adapted version). Results: Overall, 188 nurses completed a survey questionnaire. The booklet was accepted best in Canada and less so in France and Japan. Despite regional variation, the majority of the nurses perceived the booklet as useful for families. The French and Japanese nurses also reported a greater need for palliative care education in advanced dementia. Conclusion: The booklet may help nurses educate families about end-of-life issues in dementia palliative care, but local adaptation of the booklet content and physician engagement are necessary.

Towards mapping the late Quaternary vegetation change of Europe

The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question. © 2013 The Author(s).

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.