A process mining-based investigation of adverse events in care processes

This paper proposes the Clinical Pathway Analysis Method (CPAM) approach that enables the extraction of valuable organisational and medical information on past clinical pathway executions from the event logs of healthcare information systems. The method deals with the complexity of real-world clinical pathways by introducing a perspective-based segmentation of the date-stamped event log. CPAM enables the clinical pathway analyst to effectively and efficiently acquire a profound insight into the clinical pathways. By comparing the specific medical conditions of patients with the factors used for characterising the different clinical pathway variants, the medical expert can identify the best therapeutic option. Process mining-based analytics enables the acquisition of valuable insights into clinical pathways, based on the complete audit traces of previous clinical pathway instances. Additionally, the methodology is suited to assess guideline compliance and analyse adverse events. Finally, the methodology provides support for eliciting tacit knowledge and providing treatment selection assistance.

Monitoring care processes in the gynecologic oncology department

The care processes of healthcare providers are typically considered as human-centric, flexible, evolving, complex and multi-disciplinary. Consequently, acquiring an insight in the dynamics of these care processes can be an arduous task. A novel event log based approach for extracting valuable medical and organizational information on past executions of the care processes is presented in this study. Care processes are analyzed with the help of a preferential set of process mining techniques in order to discover recurring patterns, analyze and characterize process variants and identify adverse medical events.

Tracking adversarial targets

We study linear control problems with quadratic losses and adversarially chosen tracking targets. We present an efficient algorithm for this problem and show that, under standard conditions on the linear system, its regret with respect to an optimal linear policy grows as O(log^2 T), where T is the number of rounds of the game. We also study a problem with adversarially chosen transition dynamics; we present an exponentiallyweighted average algorithm for this problem, and we give regret bounds that grow as O(sqtr p T).

Evolution of a ~2.7 Ga large igneous province: A volcanological, geochemical and geochronological study of the Agnew Greenstone Belt, and new regional correlations for the Kalgoorlie Terrane (Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia)

The thick package of ~2.7 Ga mafic and ultramafic lavas and intrusions preserved among the Neoarchean of the Kalgoorlie Terrene in Western Australia provides valuable insight into geological processes controlling the most prodigious episode of growth and preservation of juvenile continental crust in Earth’s history. Limited exposure of these rocks results in uncertainty about their age, physical and chemical characteristics, and stratigraphic relationships. This in turn prevents confident correlation of regional occurrences of mafic and ultramafic successions (both intrusive and extrusive) and hinders the interpretation of tectonic setting and magmatic evolution. A recent stratigraphic drilling program of the Neoarchean stratigraphy of the Agnew Greenstone Belt in Western Australia has provided continuous exposures through a c. 7 km thick sequence of mafic and ultramafic units. In this study, we present a volcanological, lithogeochemical and chronological study of the Agnew Greenstone Belt, and provide the first pre-2690 Ma regional correlation across the Kalgoorlie Terrane. The Agnew Greenstone Belt records ~30 m.y. of episodic ultramafic-mafic magmatism that includes two cycles, each defined by a komatiite that is overlain by units that become more evolved and contaminated with time. The sequence is divided into nine conformable packages, each consisting of stacked subaqueous lava flows and comagmatic intrusions, as well as two sills without associated extrusions. Lavas, with the exception of intercalations between two units, form a layer-cake stratigraphy and were likely erupted from a system of fissures tapping the same magma source. The komatiites are not contaminated by continental crust ([La/Sm]PM ~0.7) and are of the Al-undepleted Munro-type. Crustal contamination is evident in many units (Songvang Basalt, Never Can Tell Basalt, Redeemer Basalt, and Turrett Dolerite), as judged by [La/Sm]>1, negative Nb and Ti anomalies, and geochemical mixing trends towards felsic contaminants. Crystal fractionation was also significant, with early olivine and chromite (Mg#>65) followed by plagioclase and clinopyroxene removal (Mg<65), and in the most evolved case, titanomagnetite accumulation. Three new TIMS dates on granophyric zones of mafic sills and one ICP-MS date from an interflow felsic tuff are presented and used for regional stratigraphic correlation. Cycle I magmatism began at ~2720 Ma and ended ~2705 Ma, whereas cycle II began ~2705 Ma and ended at 2690.7±1.2 Ma. Regional correlations indicate the western Kalgoorlie Terrane consists of a remarkably similar stratigraphy that can be recognised at Agnew, Ora Banda and Coolgardie, whereas the eastern part of the terrane (e.g., Kambalda Domain) does not include cycle I, but correlates well with cycle II. This research supports an autochthonous model of greenstone formation, in which one large igneous province, represented by two complete cycles, is constructed on sialic crust. New stratigraphic correlations for the Kalgoorlie Terrane indicate that many units can be traced over distances >100 km, which has implications for exploration targeting for stratigraphically hosted ultramafic Ni and VMS deposits.

Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: A Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1α and IL-1β); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0·22 SD (95% CI 0·18–0·25; 12·5%; p=9·3 × 10−33), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0·02 SD (−0·04 to −0·01; −1·7%; p=3·5 × 10−3), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0·03 SD (−0·04 to −0·02; −3·4%; p=7·7 × 10−14). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·15 (1·08–1·22; p=1·8 × 10−6) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·03 (1·02–1·04; p=3·9 × 10−10). Per-allele odds ratios were 0·97 (0·95–0·99; p=9·9 × 10−4) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0·99 (0·97–1·01; p=0·47) for type 2 diabetes, 1·00 (0·98–1·02; p=0·92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1·08 (1·04–1·12; p=1·8 × 10−5) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1α/β inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

Resting energy expenditure in children with inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVES: There is controversy in the literature regarding the effect of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) on resting energy expenditure (REE). In many cases this may have resulted from inappropriate adjustment of REE measurements to account for differences in body composition. This article considers how to appropriately adjust measurements of REE for differences in body composition between individuals with IBD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Body composition, assessed via total body potassium to yield a measure of body cell mass (BCM), and REE measurements were performed in 41 children with Crohn disease and ulcerative colitis in the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Log-log regression was used to determine the power function to which BCM should be raised to appropriately adjust REE to account for differences in body composition between children. RESULTS: The appropriate value to "adjust" BCM was found to be 0.49, with a standard error of 0.10. CONCLUSIONS: Clearly, there is a need to adjust for differences in body composition, or at the very least body weight, in metabolic studies in children with IBD. We suggest that raising BCM to the power of 0.5 is both a numerically convenient and a statistically valid way of achieving this aim. Under circumstances in which the measurement of BCM is not available, raising body weight to the power of 0.5 remains appropriate. The important issue of whether REE is changed in cases of IBD can then be appropriately addressed. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Adjusting body cell mass for size in women of differing nutritional status

Background: Body cell mass (BCM) may be estimated in clinical practice to assess functional nutritional status, eg, in patients with anorexia nervosa. Interpretation of the data, especially in younger patients who are still growing, requires appropriate adjustment for size. Previous investigations of this general issue have addressed chemical rather than functional components of body composition and have not considered patients at the extremes of nutritional status, in whom the ability to make longitudinal comparisons is of particular importance. Objective: Our objective was to determine the power by which height should be raised to adjust BCM for height in women of differing nutritional status. Design: BCM was estimated by K-40 counting in 58 healthy women, 33 healthy female adolescents, and 75 female adolescents with anorexia nervosa. The relation between BCM and height was explored in each group by using log-log regression analysis. Results: The powers by which height should be raised to adjust BCM,A,ere 1.73. 1.73, and 2.07 in the women, healthy female adolescents, and anorexic female adolescents, respectively. A simplified version of the index, BCM/height(2), was appropriate for all 3 categories and was negligibly correlated with height. Conclusions: In normal-weight women, the relation between height and BCM is consistent with that reported previously between height and fat-free mass. Although the consistency of the relation between BCM and fat-free mass decreases with increasing weight loss, the relation between height and BCM is not significantly different between normal-weight and underweight women. The index BCM/height(2) is easy to calculate and applicable to both healthy and underweight women. This information may be helpful in interpreting body-composition data in clinical practice.

Species-area and species-individual relationships for tropical trees: A comparison of three 50-ha plots

1 Species-accumulation curves for woody plants were calculated in three tropical forests, based on fully mapped 50-ha plots in wet, old-growth forest in Peninsular Malaysia, in moist, old-growth forest in central Panama, and in dry, previously logged forest in southern India. A total of 610 000 stems were identified to species and mapped to < Im accuracy. Mean species number and stem number were calculated in quadrats as small as 5 m x 5 m to as large as 1000 m x 500 m, for a variety of stem sizes above 10 mm in diameter. Species-area curves were generated by plotting species number as a function of quadrat size; species-individual curves were generated from the same data, but using stem number as the independent variable rather than area. 2 Species-area curves had different forms for stems of different diameters, but species-individual curves were nearly independent of diameter class. With < 10(4) stems, species-individual curves were concave downward on log-log plots, with curves from different forests diverging, but beyond about 104 stems, the log-log curves became nearly linear, with all three sites having a similar slope. This indicates an asymptotic difference in richness between forests: the Malaysian site had 2.7 times as many species as Panama, which in turn was 3.3 times as rich as India. 3 Other details of the species-accumulation relationship were remarkably similar between the three sites. Rectangular quadrats had 5-27% more species than square quadrats of the same area, with longer and narrower quadrats increasingly diverse. Random samples of stems drawn from the entire 50 ha had 10-30% more species than square quadrats with the same number of stems. At both Pasoh and BCI, but not Mudumalai. species richness was slightly higher among intermediate-sized stems (50-100mm in diameter) than in either smaller or larger sizes, These patterns reflect aggregated distributions of individual species, plus weak density-dependent forces that tend to smooth the species abundance distribution and 'loosen' aggregations as stems grow. 4 The results provide support for the view that within each tree community, many species have their abundance and distribution guided more by random drift than deterministic interactions. The drift model predicts that the species-accumulation curve will have a declining slope on a log-log plot, reaching a slope of O.1 in about 50 ha. No other model of community structure can make such a precise prediction. 5 The results demonstrate that diversity studies based on different stem diameters can be compared by sampling identical numbers of stems. Moreover, they indicate that stem counts < 1000 in tropical forests will underestimate the percentage difference in species richness between two diverse sites. Fortunately, standard diversity indices (Fisher's sc, Shannon-Wiener) captured diversity differences in small stem samples more effectively than raw species richness, but both were sample size dependent. Two nonparametric richness estimators (Chao. jackknife) performed poorly, greatly underestimating true species richness.

Reflections on damaged modernity: Lessons from the iconic architecture industry

For Adorno writing in 1953, Hollywood cinema was a medium of “regression” based on infantile wish fulfillment manufactured by the industrial repetition of the filmic image that he called a modern “hieroglyphics”—like the archaic language of pictures in Ancient Egypt, which guaranteed immortality after death in Egyptian burial rites. From that 1953 essay Prolog zum Fernsehen to Das Schema der Massenkultur in 1981, Adorno likened film frames to cultural ideograms: What he called the filmic “language of images” (Bildersprache) constituted a Hieroglyphenschrift that visualised forbidden sexual impulses and ideations of death and domination in the unconscious of the mass spectator. In his famous passage he writes, “As image, the image-writing (Bilderschrift) is a medium of regression, where the producer and consumer coincide; as writing, film resurrects the archaic images of modernity.” In other words, cinema takes the spectator on a journey into his unconscious in order to control him from within. It works, because the spectator begins to believe the film is speaking to him in his very own image-language (the unconscious), making him do and buy whatever capitalism demands. Modernity for Adorno is precisely the instrumentalisation of the collective unconscious through the mediatic images of the culture industry.

The Post-Illumination Pupil Response (PIPR)

Purpose The post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) has been quantified using four metrics, but the spectral sensitivity of only one is known; here we determine the other three. To optimize the human PIPR measurement, we determine the protocol producing the largest PIPR, the duration of the PIPR, and the metric(s) with the lowest coefficient of variation. Methods The consensual pupil light reflex (PLR) was measured with a Maxwellian view pupillometer. - Experiment 1: Spectral sensitivity of four PIPR metrics [plateau, 6 s, area under curve (AUC) early and late recovery] was determined from a criterion PIPR to a 1s pulse and fitted with Vitamin A1 nomogram (λmax = 482nm). - Experiment 2: The PLR was measured as a function of three stimulus durations (1s, 10s, 30s), five irradiances spanning low to high melanopsin excitation levels (retinal irradiance: 9.8 to 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), and two wavelengths, one with high (465nm) and one with low (637nm) melanopsin excitation. Intra and inter-individual coefficients of variation (CV) were calculated. Results The melanopsin (opn4) photopigment nomogram adequately describes the spectral sensitivity of all four PIPR metrics. The PIPR amplitude was largest with 1s short wavelength pulses (≥ 12.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). The plateau and 6s PIPR showed the least intra and inter-individual CV (≤ 0.2). The maximum duration of the sustained PIPR was 83.0±48.0s (mean±SD) for 1s pulses and 180.1±106.2s for 30s pulses (465nm; 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). Conclusions All current PIPR metrics provide a direct measure of the intrinsic melanopsin photoresponse. To measure progressive changes in melanopsin function in disease, we recommend that the PIPR be measured using short duration pulses (e.g., ≤ 1s) with high melanopsin excitation and analyzed with plateau and/or 6s metrics. Our PIPR duration data provide a baseline for the selection of inter-stimulus intervals between consecutive pupil testing sequences.

The post-illumination pupil response of melanopsin expressing retinal ganglion cells

Purpose The post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) has been quantified in the literature by four metrics. The spectral sensitivity of only one metric is known and this study quantifies the other three. To optimize the measurement of the PIPR in humans, we also determine the stimulus protocol producing the largest PIPR, the duration of the PIPR, and the metric(s) with the lowest coefficient of variation. Methods The consensual pupil light reflex (PLR) was measured with a Maxwellian view pupillometer (35.6° diameter stimulus). - Experiment 1: Spectral sensitivity of four PIPR metrics [plateau, 6 s, area under curve (AUC) early and late recovery] was determined from a criterion PIPR (n = 2 participants) to a 1 s pulse at five wavelengths (409-592nm) and fitted with Vitamin A nomogram (ƛmax = 482 nm). - Experiment 2: The PLR was measured in five healthy participants [29 to 42 years (mean = 32.6 years)] as a function of three stimulus durations (1 s, 10 s, 30 s), five irradiances spanning low to high melanopsin excitation levels (retinal irradiance: 9.8 to 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), and two wavelengths, one with high (465 nm) and one with low (637 nm) melanopsin excitation. Intra and inter-individual coefficients of variation (CV) were calculated. Results The melanopsin (opn4) photopigment nomogram adequately described the spectral sensitivity derived from all four PIPR metrics. The largest PIPR amplitude was observed with 1 s short wavelength pulses (retinal irradiance ≥ 12.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). Of the 4 PIPR metrics, the plateau and 6 s PIPR showed the least intra and inter-individual CV (≤ 0.2). The maximum duration of the sustained PIPR was 83.4 ± 48.0 s (mean ± SD) for 1 s pulses and 180.1 ± 106.2 s for 30 s pulses (465 nm; 14.8 log quanta.cm-2.s-1). Conclusions All current PIPR metrics provide a direct measure of intrinsic melanopsin retinal ganglion cell function. To measure progressive changes in melanopsin function in disease, we recommend that the intrinsic melanopsin response should be measured using a 1 s pulse with high melanopsin excitation and the PIPR should be analyzed with the plateau and/or 6 s metrics. That the PIPR can have a sustained constriction for as long as 3 minutes, our PIPR duration data provide a baseline for the selection of inter-stimulus intervals between consecutive pupil testing sequences.

Melanopsin ganglion cell function in early age-related macular degeneration

Purpose Melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells (mRGCs) have non-image forming functions including mediation of the pupil light reflex (PLR). There is limited knowledge about mRGC function in retinal disease. Initial retinal changes in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) occur in the paracentral region where mRGCs have their highest density, making them vulnerable during disease onset. In this cross-sectional clinical study, we measured the PLR to determine if mRGC function is altered in early stages of macular degeneration. Methods Pupil responses were measured in 8 early AMD patients (AREDS 2001 classification; mean age 72.6 ± 7.2 years, 5M, and 3F) and 12 healthy control participants (mean age 66.6 ± 6.1 years, 8M and 4F) using a custom-built Maxwellian-view pupillometer. Stimuli were 0.5 Hz sinewaves (10 s duration, 35.6° diameter) of short wavelength light (464nm, blue; retinal irradiance = 14.5 log quanta.cm-2.s-1) to produce high melanopsin excitation and of long wavelength light (638nm, red; retinal irradiance = 14.9 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), to bias activation to outer retina and provide a control. Baseline pupil diameter was determined during a 10 s pre-stimulus period. The post illumination pupil response (PIPR) was recorded for 40 s. The 6 s PIPR and maximum pupil constriction were expressed as percentage baseline (M ± SD). Results The blue PIPR was significantly less sustained (p<0.01) in the early AMD group (75.49 ± 7.88%) than the control group (58.28 ± 9.05%). The red PIPR was not significantly different (p>0.05) between the early AMD (84.79 ± 4.03%) and control groups (82.01 ± 5.86%). Maximum constriction amplitude in the early AMD group for blue (43.67 ± 6.35%) and red (48.64 ± 6.49%) stimuli were not significantly different to the control group for blue (39.94 ± 3.66%) and red (44.98 ± 3.15%) stimuli (p>0.05). Conclusions These results are suggestive of inner retinal mRGC deficits in early AMD. This non-invasive, objective measure of pupil responses may provide a new method for quantifying mRGC function and monitoring AMD progression.

Bounds on isoperimetric values of trees

Let G = (V, E) be a finite, simple and undirected graph. For S subset of V, let delta(S, G) = {(u, v) is an element of E : u is an element of S and v is an element of V - S} be the edge boundary of S. Given an integer i, 1 <= i <= vertical bar V vertical bar, let the edge isoperimetric value of G at i be defined as b(e)(i, G) = min(S subset of V:vertical bar S vertical bar=i)vertical bar delta(S, G)vertical bar. The edge isoperimetric peak of G is defined as b(e)(G) = max(1 <= j <=vertical bar V vertical bar)b(e)(j, G). Let b(v)(G) denote the vertex isoperimetric peak defined in a corresponding way. The problem of determining a lower bound for the vertex isoperimetric peak in complete t-ary trees was recently considered in [Y. Otachi, K. Yamazaki, A lower bound for the vertex boundary-width of complete k-ary trees, Discrete Mathematics, in press (doi: 10.1016/j.disc.2007.05.014)]. In this paper we provide bounds which improve those in the above cited paper. Our results can be generalized to arbitrary (rooted) trees. The depth d of a tree is the number of nodes on the longest path starting from the root and ending at a leaf. In this paper we show that for a complete binary tree of depth d (denoted as T-d(2)), c(1)d <= b(e) (T-d(2)) <= d and c(2)d <= b(v)(T-d(2)) <= d where c(1), c(2) are constants. For a complete t-ary tree of depth d (denoted as T-d(t)) and d >= c log t where c is a constant, we show that c(1)root td <= b(e)(T-d(t)) <= td and c(2)d/root t <= b(v) (T-d(t)) <= d where c(1), c(2) are constants. At the heart of our proof we have the following theorem which works for an arbitrary rooted tree and not just for a complete t-ary tree. Let T = (V, E, r) be a finite, connected and rooted tree - the root being the vertex r. Define a weight function w : V -> N where the weight w(u) of a vertex u is the number of its successors (including itself) and let the weight index eta(T) be defined as the number of distinct weights in the tree, i.e eta(T) vertical bar{w(u) : u is an element of V}vertical bar. For a positive integer k, let l(k) = vertical bar{i is an element of N : 1 <= i <= vertical bar V vertical bar, b(e)(i, G) <= k}vertical bar. We show that l(k) <= 2(2 eta+k k)

Generalised growth models for aquatic species with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra)

This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected

Comparative analysis of traffic state estimation ─ Cumulative counts-based and trajectory-based methods

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) relates space-mean density and flow. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performance, studies on perimeter control strategies and network-wide traffic state estimation utilising the MFD concept have been reported. Most previous works have utilised data from fixed sensors, such as inductive loops, to estimate the MFD, which can cause biased estimation in urban networks due to queue spillovers at intersections. To overcome the limitation, recent literature reports the use of trajectory data obtained from probe vehicles. However, these studies have been conducted using simulated datasets; limited works have discussed the limitations of real datasets and their impact on the variable estimation. This study compares two methods for estimating traffic state variables of signalised arterial sections: a method based on cumulative vehicle counts (CUPRITE), and one based on vehicles’ trajectory from taxi Global Positioning System (GPS) log. The comparisons reveal some characteristics of taxi trajectory data available in Brisbane, Australia. The current trajectory data have limitations in quantity (i.e., the penetration rate), due to which the traffic state variables tend to be underestimated. Nevertheless, the trajectory-based method successfully captures the features of traffic states, which suggests that the trajectories from taxis can be a good estimator for the network-wide traffic states.