991 resultados para Stochastic sequences.


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More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

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In this paper, a power management strategy (PMS) has been developed for the control of energy storage in a system subjected to loads of random duration. The PMS minimises the costs associated with the energy consumption of specific systems powered by a primary energy source and equipped with energy storage, under the assumption that the statistical distribution of load durations is known. By including the variability of the load in the cost function, it was possible to define the optimality criteria for the power flow of the storage. Numerical calculations have been performed obtaining the control strategies associated with the global minimum in energy costs, for a wide range of initial conditions of the system. The results of the calculations have been tested on a MATLAB/Simulink model of a rubber tyre gantry (RTG) crane equipped with a flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and subjected to a test cycle, which corresponds to the real operation of a crane in the Port of Felixstowe. The results of the model show increased energy savings and reduced peak power demand with respect to existing control strategies, indicating considerable potential savings for port operators in terms of energy and maintenance costs.

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The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

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Phylogenetic relationships among 21 species of mosquitoes in subgenus Nyssorhynchus were inferred from the nuclear white and mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 6 (ND6) genes. Bayestan phylogenetic methods found that none of the three Sections within Nyssorhynchus (Albimanus, Argyritarsis, Myzorhynchella) were supported in all analyses, although Myzorhynchella was found to be monophyletic at the combined genes Within the Albimanus Section the monophyly of the Stroder Subgroup was strongly supported and within the Myzorhynchella Section Anopheles anrunesi and An lutzu formed a strongly supported monophyletic group The epidemiologically significant Albitarsis Complex showed evidence of paraphyly (relative to An lanet-Myzorhynchella) and discordance across gene trees, and the previously synonomized species of An. dunhami and An goeldii were recovered as sister species Finally, there was evidence of complexes in several species, including An antunesi, An deaneorum, and An. strodei (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

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The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

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Tribe Pogonieae (Orchidaceae), as Currently known, comprises live genera distributed from South to North America and Eastern Asia. Phylogenetic inferences within Cleistes and among genera of tribe Pogonieae were made based oil nrDNA (ITS) and cpDNA (trnL-F, rps16, rbcL, and psaB) Sequence data and maximum parsimony. Eighteen species of Cleistes, members of all other genera of Pogonieae, and outgroups were sampled. Analyses based oil individual DNA regions provided similar topologies. All evidence indicates that Cleistes is paraphyletic. The North American C. divaricata and C bifaria are more closely related to the temperate genera Isotria and Pogonia than to their Central and South American congeners, the latter Constituting a monophyletic group characterized by the production of nectar as reward, tuberous roots, and their distribution in Central and South America. The Amazonian Duckeella is sister to the remainder of Pogonieae. Taxonomic and biogeographic implications are discussed, and morphological synapomorphies are given For clades obtained in the inferred molecular phylogeny. (C) 2008 Gesellschaft fur Biologische Systematik. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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The phylogenetic placement of Kuhlmanniodendron Fiaschi & Groppo (Achariaceae) within Malpighiales was investigated with rbcL sequence data. This genus was recently created to accommodate Carpotroche apterocarpa Kuhlm., a poorly known species from the rainforests of Espirito Santo, Brazil. One rbcL sequence was obtained from Kuhlmanniodendron and analyzed with 73 additional sequences from Malpighiales, and 8 from two closer orders, Oxalidales and Celastrales, all of which were available at Genbank. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out with maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference; bootstrap analyses were used in maximum parsimony to evaluate branch support. The results confirmed the placement of Kuhlmanniodendron together with Camptostylus, Lindackeria, Xylotheca, and Caloncoba in a strongly supported clade (posterior probability = 0.99) that corresponds with the tribe Lindackerieae of Achariaceae (Malpighiales). Kuhlmanniodendron also does not appear to be closely related to Oncoba (Salicaceae), an African genus with similar floral and fruit morphology that has been traditionally placed among cyanogenic Flacourtiaceae (now Achariaceae). A picrosodic paper test was performed in herbarium dry leaves, and the presence of cyanogenic glycosides, a class of compounds usually found in Achariaceae, was detected. Pollen morphology and wood anatomy of Kuhlmanniodendron were also investigated, but both pollen (3-colporate and microreticulate) and wood, with solitary to multiple vessels, scalariform perforation plates and other features, do not seem to be useful to distinguish this genus from other members of the Achariaceae and are rather common among the eudicotyledons as a whole. However, perforated ray cells with scalariform plates, an uncommon wood character, present in Kuhlmanniodendron are similar to those found in Kiggelaria africana (Pangieae, Achariaceae), but the occurrence of such cells is not mapped among the angiosperms, and it is not clear how homoplastic this character could be.

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Phylogenetic relationships and divergence times for 10 populations of the three recognized ""species"" of Brazilian lizards of genus Eurolophosaurus were estimated from 1229 bp of cyt b, COI, 12S, and 16S rRNA mitochondrial gene segments. Eurolophosaurus is monophyletic and the basal split within the genus separates E divaricatus from a clade comprising E amathites and E nanuzae. Three populations of E divaricatus, which occurs along the western bank of Rio S (a) over tildeo Francisco, were consistently grouped together. Oil the east bank of the river, E amathites and E nanuzae from state of Bahia were recovered as the sister group of E nanuzae populations from state of Minas Gerais. The paraphyly of E nanuzae and the high divergence levels among populations of E divaricatus strongly suggest that species limits in Eurolophosaurus should be revised. Even considering an extreme evolutionary rate of 2.8% sequence divergence per million years for the four gene segments analyzed together, E. divaricatus would have separated from the two other species by at least 5.5 my ago, and E. amathites from E nanuzae populations from Bahia and Minas Gerais, respectively, by 1.5 and 3.5 my. The paleolacustrine hypothesis and changes in the course of the river potentially explain faunal divergence in the area, but divergences are much older than previously admitted. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Calyptommatus and Nothobachia genera of gymnophthalmid lizards are restricted to sandy open habitats on Sao Francisco River margins, northeastern Brazil. Phylogenetic relationships and geographic distribution of the four recognized species of Calyptommatus were analyzed from partial mitochondrial cyt b, 12S, and 16S rRNA genes sequencing, taking allopatric populations of the monotypic Nothobachia ablephara as the outgroup. In Calyptommatus a basal split separated C. sinebrachiatus, a species restricted to the eastern bank of the river, from the three other species. In this clade, C. confusionibus, found on western margin, was recovered as the sister group of the two other species, C. leiolepis and C. nicterus, from opposite margins. According to approximate date estimations, C. sinebrachiatus would have separated from the other congeneric species by 4.4-6.5 my, and C. nicterus, also from eastern bank, would be diverging by 1.8-2.6 my from C. leiolepis, the sister species on the opposite margin. C. confusionibus and C. leiolepis, both from western sandy areas, would be differentiating by 2.8-5.0 my. Divergence times of about 3.0-4.0 my were estimated for allopatric populations of Nothobachia restricted to western margin. Significant differences in 16S rRNA secondary structure relatively to other vertebrates are reported. Distinct evolutionary patterns are proposed for different taxa in those sandy areas, probably related to historical changes in the course of Sao Francisco River. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Acestrorhynchus is the sole genus of the family Acestrorhynchidae which includes 14 species currently recognized as valid. Species of Acestrorhynchus comprise small-to-medium sized piscivorous fishes and have been traditionally grouped on the basis of well-defined color patterns. A recent phylogeny, based on morphological characters, could not resolve the phylogenetic affinities of A. heterolepis and the relationships among the species of the clade formed by A. abbreviatus, A. altus, A. falcatus, A. lacustris, and A. pantaneiro. The simultaneous analysis of two mitochondrial genes (16S and ATP synthase subunits 6 and 8) and one nuclear intron (S7) was able to resolve the latter clade, but the position of A. heterolepis remained unresolved. The combination of the molecular and morphological data sets in a total evidence analysis resulted in a well-resolved hypothesis regarding the phylogenetic relationships of Acestrorhynchus species. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Mitotic chromosomes of Metynnis maculatus (KNER 1860) (Teleostei, Characiformes), a fish species that occurs in the Amazon and Parana-Paraguay river basins, were analyzed for the first time by Giemsa and Ag-NOR staining, C-banding and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with 18S and 5S rDNA sequences. The basic chromosome number of the species is 2n=62 (32M+22SM+4ST+4A) and, in addition to the 62 regular chromosomes, one small acrocentric supernumerary B chromosome was found in part of the specimens analyzed. Four active NORs were present, and constitutive heterochromatin blocks were found in the pericentromeric region of several chromosomes. A heterochromatic block was also present in the interstitial portion of the submetacentric NOR-bearing pair and the B chromosome was entirely heterochromatic. FISH using an 18S rDNA probe confirmed the results obtained with AgNO(3) staining, and an additional signal was also present on the B chromosomes. 5S rDNA sequences mapped only to the largest acrocentric pair. This is the first description of supernumerary B chromosomes in Serrasalminae, and this karyotype characterization may be useful in further studies about chromosome evolution in this fish group.

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Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) using telomeric and ribosomal sequences was performed in four species of toad genus Chaunus: C. ictericus, C. jimi, C. rubescens and C. schneideri. Analyses based on conventional, C-banding and Ag-NOR staining were also carried out. The four species present a 2n = 22 karyotype, composed by metacentric and submetacentric chromosomes, which were indistinguishable either after conventional staining or banding techniques. Constitutive heterochromatin was predominantly located at pericentromeric regions, and telomeric sequences (TTAGGG)(n) were restricted to the end of all chromosomes. Silver staining revealed Ag-NORs located at the short arm of pair 7, and heteromorphism in size of NOR signals was also observed. By contrast, FISH with ribosomal probes clearly demonstrated absence of any heteromorphism in size of rDNA sequences, suggesting that the difference observed after Ag-staining should be attributed to differences in chromosomal condensation and/or gene activity rather than to the number of ribosomal cistrons.

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Parsimony-based phylogenetic analyses of the neotropical tribe Helieae (Gentianaceae) are presented, including 22 of the 23 genera and 60 species. This study is based on data from morphology, palynology, and seed micromorphology (127 structural characters), and DNA sequences (matK, trnL intron, ITS). Phylogenetic reconstructions based on ITS and morphology provided the greatest resolution, morphological data further helping to tentatively place several taxa for which DNA was not available (Celiantha, Lagenanthus, Rogersonanthus, Roraimaea, Senaea, Sipapoantha, Zonanthus). Celiantha, Prepusa and Senaea together appear as the sister clade to the rest of Helieae. The remainder of Helieae is largely divided into two large subclades, the Macrocarpaea subclade and the Symbolanthus subclade. The first subclade includes Macrocarpaea, sister to Chorisepalum, Tochia, and Zonanthus. Irlbachia and Neblinantha are placed as sisters to the Symbolanthus subclade, which includes Aripuana, Calolisianthus, Chelonanthus, Helia, Lagenanthus, Lehmanniella, Purdieanthus, Rogersonanthus, Roraimaea, Sipapoantha, and symbolanthus. Generic-level polyphyly is detected in Chelonanthus and Irlbachia. Evolution of morphological characters is discussed, and new pollen and seed characters are evaluated for the first time in a combined morphological-molecular phylogenetic analysis.

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Xanthomonadales comprises one of the largest phytopathogenic bacterial groups, and is currently classified within the gamma-proteobacteria. However, the phylogenetic placement of this group is not clearly resolved, and the results of different studies contradict one another. In this work, the evolutionary position of Xanthomonadales was determined by analyzing the presence of shared insertions and deletions (INDELs) in highly conserved proteins. Several distinctive insertions found in most of the members of the gamma-proteobacteria are absent in Xanthomonadales and groups such as Legionelalles, Chromatiales, Methylococcales, Thiotrichales and Cardiobacteriales. These INDELs were most likely introduced after the branching of Xanthomonadales from most of the gamma-proteobacteria and provide evidence for the phylogenetic placement of the early gamma-proteobacteria. Moreover, other proteins contain insertions exclusive to the Xanthomonadales order, confirming that this is a monophyletic group and provide important specific genetic markers. Thus, the data presented clearly support the Xanthomonadales group as an independent subdivision, and constitute one of the deepest branching lineage within the gamma-proteobacteria clade. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Although Trypanosoma theileri and allied trypanosomes are the most widespread trypanosomes in bovids little is known about proteolytic enzymes in these species. We have characterized genes encoding for cathepsin L-like (CATL) cysteine proteases from isolates of cattle, water buffalo and deer that largely diverged from homologues of other trypanosome species. Analysis of 78 CATL catalytic domain sequences from 22 T. theileri trypanosomes disclosed 6 genotypes tightly clustered together into the T. theileri clade. The CATL genes in these trypanosomes are organized in tandem arrays of similar to 1.7 kb located in 2 chromosomal bands of 600-720 kb. A diagnostic PCR assay targeting CATL sequences detected T. theileri of all genotypes from cattle, buffaloes and cervids and also from tabanid vectors. Expression of T. theileri cysteine proteases was demonstrated by proteolytic activity in gelatin gels and hydrolysis of Z-Phe-Arg-AMC substrate. Results from this work agree with previous data using ribosomal and spliced leader genes demonstrating that CATL gene sequences are useful for diagnosis, population genotyping and evolutionary studies of T. theileri trypanosomes. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.