Predictive oncology: a review of multidisciplinary, multiscale in silico modeling linking phenotype, morphology and growth.

Empirical evidence and theoretical studies suggest that the phenotype, i.e., cellular- and molecular-scale dynamics, including proliferation rate and adhesiveness due to microenvironmental factors and gene expression that govern tumor growth and invasiveness, also determine gross tumor-scale morphology. It has been difficult to quantify the relative effect of these links on disease progression and prognosis using conventional clinical and experimental methods and observables. As a result, successful individualized treatment of highly malignant and invasive cancers, such as glioblastoma, via surgical resection and chemotherapy cannot be offered and outcomes are generally poor. What is needed is a deterministic, quantifiable method to enable understanding of the connections between phenotype and tumor morphology. Here, we critically assess advantages and disadvantages of recent computational modeling efforts (e.g., continuum, discrete, and cellular automata models) that have pursued this understanding. Based on this assessment, we review a multiscale, i.e., from the molecular to the gross tumor scale, mathematical and computational "first-principle" approach based on mass conservation and other physical laws, such as employed in reaction-diffusion systems. Model variables describe known characteristics of tumor behavior, and parameters and functional relationships across scales are informed from in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo biology. We review the feasibility of this methodology that, once coupled to tumor imaging and tumor biopsy or cell culture data, should enable prediction of tumor growth and therapy outcome through quantification of the relation between the underlying dynamics and morphological characteristics. In particular, morphologic stability analysis of this mathematical model reveals that tumor cell patterning at the tumor-host interface is regulated by cell proliferation, adhesion and other phenotypic characteristics: histopathology information of tumor boundary can be inputted to the mathematical model and used as a phenotype-diagnostic tool to predict collective and individual tumor cell invasion of surrounding tissue. This approach further provides a means to deterministically test effects of novel and hypothetical therapy strategies on tumor behavior.

Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Hebbian analysis of the transformation of medial entorhinal grid-cell inputs to hippocampal place fields.

The discovery of grid cells in the medial entorhinal cortex (MEC) permits the characterization of hippocampal computation in much greater detail than previously possible. The present study addresses how an integrate-and-fire unit driven by grid-cell spike trains may transform the multipeaked, spatial firing pattern of grid cells into the single-peaked activity that is typical of hippocampal place cells. Previous studies have shown that in the absence of network interactions, this transformation can succeed only if the place cell receives inputs from grids with overlapping vertices at the location of the place cell's firing field. In our simulations, the selection of these inputs was accomplished by fast Hebbian plasticity alone. The resulting nonlinear process was acutely sensitive to small input variations. Simulations differing only in the exact spike timing of grid cells produced different field locations for the same place cells. Place fields became concentrated in areas that correlated with the initial trajectory of the animal; the introduction of feedback inhibitory cells reduced this bias. These results suggest distinct roles for plasticity of the perforant path synapses and for competition via feedback inhibition in the formation of place fields in a novel environment. Furthermore, they imply that variability in MEC spiking patterns or in the rat's trajectory is sufficient for generating a distinct population code in a novel environment and suggest that recalling this code in a familiar environment involves additional inputs and/or a different mode of operation of the network.

Neurogranin controls the spatiotemporal pattern of postsynaptic Ca2+/CaM signaling.

Neurogranin (Ng) is a postsynaptic IQ-motif containing protein that accelerates Ca(2+) dissociation from calmodulin (CaM), a key regulator of long-term potentiation and long-term depression in CA1 pyramidal neurons. The exact physiological role of Ng, however, remains controversial. Two genetic knockout studies of Ng showed opposite outcomes in terms of the induction of synaptic plasticity. To understand its function, we test the hypothesis that Ng could regulate the spatial range of action of Ca(2+)/CaM based on its ability to accelerate the dissociation of Ca(2+) from CaM. Using a mathematical model constructed on the known biochemistry of Ng, we calculate the cycle time that CaM molecules alternate between the fully Ca(2+) saturated state and the Ca(2+) unbound state. We then use these results and include diffusion of CaM to illustrate the impact that Ng has on modulating the spatial profile of Ca(2+)-saturated CaM within a model spine compartment. Finally, the first-passage time of CaM to transition from the Ca(2+)-free state to the Ca(2+)-saturated state was calculated with or without Ng present. These analyses suggest that Ng regulates the encounter rate between Ca(2+) saturated CaM and its downstream targets during postsynaptic Ca(2+) transients.

Relationship between threshold and suprathreshold perception of position and stereoscopic depth.

We seek to determine the relationship between threshold and suprathreshold perception for position offset and stereoscopic depth perception under conditions that elevate their respective thresholds. Two threshold-elevating conditions were used: (1) increasing the interline gap and (2) dioptric blur. Although increasing the interline gap increases position (Vernier) offset and stereoscopic disparity thresholds substantially, the perception of suprathreshold position offset and stereoscopic depth remains unchanged. Perception of suprathreshold position offset also remains unchanged when the Vernier threshold is elevated by dioptric blur. We show that such normalization of suprathreshold position offset can be attributed to the topographical-map-based encoding of position. On the other hand, dioptric blur increases the stereoscopic disparity thresholds and reduces the perceived suprathreshold stereoscopic depth, which can be accounted for by a disparity-computation model in which the activities of absolute disparity encoders are multiplied by a Gaussian weighting function that is centered on the horopter. Overall, the statement "equal suprathreshold perception occurs in threshold-elevated and unelevated conditions when the stimuli are equally above their corresponding thresholds" describes the results better than the statement "suprathreshold stimuli are perceived as equal when they are equal multiples of their respective threshold values."

Hybrid stochastic simulations of intracellular reaction-diffusion systems.

With the observation that stochasticity is important in biological systems, chemical kinetics have begun to receive wider interest. While the use of Monte Carlo discrete event simulations most accurately capture the variability of molecular species, they become computationally costly for complex reaction-diffusion systems with large populations of molecules. On the other hand, continuous time models are computationally efficient but they fail to capture any variability in the molecular species. In this study a hybrid stochastic approach is introduced for simulating reaction-diffusion systems. We developed an adaptive partitioning strategy in which processes with high frequency are simulated with deterministic rate-based equations, and those with low frequency using the exact stochastic algorithm of Gillespie. Therefore the stochastic behavior of cellular pathways is preserved while being able to apply it to large populations of molecules. We describe our method and demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency compared with the Gillespie algorithm for two different systems. First, a model of intracellular viral kinetics with two steady states and second, a compartmental model of the postsynaptic spine head for studying the dynamics of Ca+2 and NMDA receptors.

Computational selection of inhibitors of Abeta aggregation and neuronal toxicity.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by the cerebral accumulation of misfolded and aggregated amyloid-beta protein (Abeta). Disease symptoms can be alleviated, in vitro and in vivo, by 'beta-sheet breaker' pentapeptides that reduce plaque load. However the peptide nature of these compounds, made them biologically unstable and unable to penetrate membranes with high efficiency. The main goal of this study was to use computational methods to identify small molecule mimetics with better drug-like properties. For this purpose, the docked conformations of the active peptides were used to identify compounds with similar activities. A series of related beta-sheet breaker peptides were docked to solid state NMR structures of a fibrillar form of Abeta. The lowest energy conformations of the active peptides were used to design three dimensional (3D)-pharmacophores, suitable for screening the NCI database with Unity. Small molecular weight compounds with physicochemical features and a conformation similar to the active peptides were selected, ranked by docking and biochemical parameters. Of 16 diverse compounds selected for experimental screening, 2 prevented and reversed Abeta aggregation at 2-3microM concentration, as measured by Thioflavin T (ThT) fluorescence and ELISA assays. They also prevented the toxic effects of aggregated Abeta on neuroblastoma cells. Their low molecular weight and aqueous solubility makes them promising lead compounds for treating AD.

Evaluating statistical methods used to estimate the number of postsynaptic receptors.

Calcium levels in spines play a significant role in determining the sign and magnitude of synaptic plasticity. The magnitude of calcium influx into spines is highly dependent on influx through N-methyl D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, and therefore depends on the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in each spine. We have calculated previously how the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors determines the mean and variance of calcium transients in the postsynaptic density, and how this alters the shape of plasticity curves. However, the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in the postsynaptic density is not well known. Anatomical methods for estimating the number of NMDA receptors produce estimates that are very different than those produced by physiological techniques. The physiological techniques are based on the statistics of synaptic transmission and it is difficult to experimentally estimate their precision. In this paper we use stochastic simulations in order to test the validity of a physiological estimation technique based on failure analysis. We find that the method is likely to underestimate the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors, explain the source of the error, and re-derive a more precise estimation technique. We also show that the original failure analysis as well as our improved formulas are not robust to small estimation errors in key parameters.

A biophysical model of synaptic plasticity and metaplasticity can account for the dynamics of the backward shift of hippocampal place fields.

Hippocampal place cells in the rat undergo experience-dependent changes when the rat runs stereotyped routes. One such change, the backward shift of the place field center of mass, has been linked by previous modeling efforts to spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP). However, these models did not account for the termination of the place field shift and they were based on an abstract implementation of STDP that ignores many of the features found in cortical plasticity. Here, instead of the abstract STDP model, we use a calcium-dependent plasticity (CaDP) learning rule that can account for many of the observed properties of cortical plasticity. We use the CaDP learning rule in combination with a model of metaplasticity to simulate place field dynamics. Without any major changes to the parameters of the original model, the present simulations account both for the initial rapid place field shift and for the subsequent slowing down of this shift. These results suggest that the CaDP model captures the essence of a general cortical mechanism of synaptic plasticity, which may underlie numerous forms of synaptic plasticity observed both in vivo and in vitro.

Dynamics of a minimal model of interlocked positive and negative feedback loops of transcriptional regulation by cAMP-response element binding proteins.

cAMP-response element binding (CREB) proteins are involved in transcriptional regulation in a number of cellular processes (e.g., neural plasticity and circadian rhythms). The CREB family contains activators and repressors that may interact through positive and negative feedback loops. These loops can be generated by auto- and cross-regulation of expression of CREB proteins, via CRE elements in or near their genes. Experiments suggest that such feedback loops may operate in several systems (e.g., Aplysia and rat). To understand the functional implications of such feedback loops, which are interlocked via cross-regulation of transcription, a minimal model with a positive and negative loop was developed and investigated using bifurcation analysis. Bifurcation analysis revealed diverse nonlinear dynamics (e.g., bistability and oscillations). The stability of steady states or oscillations could be changed by time delays in the synthesis of the activator (CREB1) or the repressor (CREB2). Investigation of stochastic fluctuations due to small numbers of molecules of CREB1 and CREB2 revealed a bimodal distribution of CREB molecules in the bistability region. The robustness of the stable HIGH and LOW states of CREB expression to stochastic noise differs, and a critical number of molecules was required to sustain the HIGH state for days or longer. Increasing positive feedback or decreasing negative feedback also increased the lifetime of the HIGH state, and persistence of this state may correlate with long-term memory formation. A critical number of molecules was also required to sustain robust oscillations of CREB expression. If a steady state was near a deterministic Hopf bifurcation point, stochastic resonance could induce oscillations. This comparative analysis of deterministic and stochastic dynamics not only provides insights into the possible dynamics of CREB regulatory motifs, but also demonstrates a framework for understanding other regulatory processes with similar network architecture.

Population genetics of VNTR loci and their applications in evolutionary studies

Variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) are genetic loci at which short sequence motifs are found repeated different numbers of times among chromosomes. To explore the potential utility of VNTR loci in evolutionary studies, I have conducted a series of studies to address the following questions: (1) What are the population genetic properties of these loci? (2) What are the mutational mechanisms of repeat number change at these loci? (3) Can DNA profiles be used to measure the relatedness between a pair of individuals? (4) Can DNA fingerprint be used to measure the relatedness between populations in evolutionary studies? (5) Can microsatellite and short tandem repeat (STR) loci which mutate stepwisely be used in evolutionary analyses?^ A large number of VNTR loci typed in many populations were studied by means of statistical methods developed recently. The results of this work indicate that there is no significant departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectation (HWE) at VNTR loci in most of the human populations examined, and the departure from HWE in some VNTR loci are not solely caused by the presence of population sub-structure.^ A statistical procedure is developed to investigate the mutational mechanisms of VNTR loci by studying the allele frequency distributions of these loci. Comparisons of frequency distribution data on several hundreds VNTR loci with the predictions of two mutation models demonstrated that there are differences among VNTR loci grouped by repeat unit sizes.^ By extending the ITO method, I derived the distribution of the number of shared bands between individuals with any kinship relationship. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is proposed to estimate the relatedness between individuals from the observed number of shared bands between them.^ It was believed that classical measures of genetic distance are not applicable to analysis of DNA fingerprints which reveal many minisatellite loci simultaneously in the genome, because the information regarding underlying alleles and loci is not available. I proposed a new measure of genetic distance based on band sharing between individuals that is applicable to DNA fingerprint data.^ To address the concern that microsatellite and STR loci may not be useful for evolutionary studies because of the convergent nature of their mutation mechanisms, by a theoretical study as well as by computer simulation, I conclude that the possible bias caused by the convergent mutations can be corrected, and a novel measure of genetic distance that makes the correction is suggested. In summary, I conclude that hypervariable VNTR loci are useful in evolutionary studies of closely related populations or species, especially in the study of human evolution and the history of geographic dispersal of Homo sapiens. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

Hemodynamics and Flow Characteristics of a New Dialysis Port

Renal replacement therapy by hemodialysis requires a permanent vascular access. Implantable ports offer a potential alternative to standard vascular access strategies although their development is limited both in number and extent. We explored the fluid dynamics within two new percutaneous bone-anchored dialysis port prototypes, both by in vitro experiments and computer simulation. The new port is to be fixed to bone and allows the connection of a dialysis machine to a central venous catheter via a built-in valve. We found that the pressure drop induced by the two ports was between 20 and 50 mmHg at 500 ml/min, which is comparable with commercial catheter connectors (15–80 mmHg). We observed the formation of vortices in both geometries, and a shear rate in the physiological range (<10,000s-1), which is lower than maximal shear rates reported in commercial catheters (up to 13,000s-1). A difference in surface shear rate of 15% between the two ports was obtained.

Periacetabular osteotomy restores the typically excessive range of motion in dysplastic hips with a spherical head

BACKGROUND Residual acetabular dysplasia is seen in combination with femoral pathomorphologies including an aspherical femoral head and valgus neck-shaft angle with high antetorsion. It is unclear how these femoral pathomorphologies affect range of motion (ROM) and impingement zones after periacetabular osteotomy. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES (1) Does periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) restore the typically excessive ROM in dysplastic hips compared with normal hips; (2) how do impingement locations differ in dysplastic hips before and after PAO compared with normal hips; (3) does a concomitant cam-type morphology adversely affect internal rotation; and (4) does a concomitant varus-derotation intertrochanteric osteotomy (IO) affect external rotation? METHODS Between January 1999 and March 2002, we performed 200 PAOs for dysplasia; of those, 27 hips (14%) met prespecified study inclusion criteria, including availability of a pre- and postoperative CT scan that included the hip and the distal femur. In general, we obtained those scans to evaluate the pre- and postoperative acetabular and femoral morphology, the degree of acetabular reorientation, and healing of the osteotomies. Three-dimensional surface models based on CT scans of 27 hips before and after PAO and 19 normal hips were created. Normal hips were obtained from a population of CT-based computer-assisted THAs using the contralateral hip after exclusion of symptomatic hips or hips with abnormal radiographic anatomy. Using validated and computerized methods, we then determined ROM (flexion/extension, internal- [IR]/external rotation [ER], adduction/abduction) and two motion patterns including the anterior (IR in flexion) and posterior (ER in extension) impingement tests. The computed impingement locations were assigned to anatomical locations of the pelvis and the femur. ROM was calculated separately for hips with (n = 13) and without (n = 14) a cam-type morphology and PAOs with (n = 9) and without (n = 18) a concomitant IO. A post hoc power analysis based on the primary research question with an alpha of 0.05 and a beta error of 0.20 revealed a minimal detectable difference of 4.6° of flexion. RESULTS After PAO, flexion, IR, and adduction/abduction did not differ from the nondysplastic control hips with the numbers available (p ranging from 0.061 to 0.867). Extension was decreased (19° ± 15°; range, -18° to 30° versus 28° ± 3°; range, 19°-30°; p = 0.017) and ER in 0° flexion was increased (25° ± 18°; range, -10° to 41° versus 38° ± 7°; range, 17°-41°; p = 0.002). Dysplastic hips had a higher prevalence of extraarticular impingement at the anteroinferior iliac spine compared with normal hips (48% [13 of 27 hips] versus 5% [one of 19 hips], p = 0.002). A PAO increased the prevalence of impingement for the femoral head from 30% (eight of 27 hips) preoperatively to 59% (16 of 27 hips) postoperatively (p = 0.027). IR in flexion was decreased in hips with a cam-type deformity compared with those with a spherical femoral head (p values from 0.002 to 0.047 for 95°-120° of flexion). A concomitant IO led to a normalization of ER in extension (eg, 37° ± 7° [range, 21°-41°] of ER in 0° of flexion in hips with concomitant IO compared with 38° ± 7° [range, 17°-41°] in nondysplastic control hips; p = 0.777). CONCLUSIONS Using computer simulation of hip ROM, we could show that the PAO has the potential to restore the typically excessive ROM in dysplastic hips. However, a PAO can increase the prevalence of secondary intraarticular impingement of the aspherical femoral head and extraarticular impingement of the anteroinferior iliac spines in flexion and internal rotation. A cam-type morphology can result in anterior impingement with restriction of IR. Additionally, a valgus hip with high antetorsion can result in posterior impingement with decreased ER in extension, which can be normalized with a varus derotation IO of the femur. However, indication of an additional IO needs to be weighed against its inherent morbidity and possible complications. The results are based on a limited number of hips with a pre- and postoperative CT scan after PAO. Future prospective studies are needed to verify the current results based on computer simulation and to test their clinical importance.

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^