Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

A non-possibility theorem for joint-stability in interindustry models

Joint-stability in interindustry models relates to the mutual simultaneous consistency of the demand-driven and supply-driven models of Leontief and Ghosh, respectively. Previous work has claimed joint-stability to be an acceptable assumption from the empirical viewpoint, provided only small changes in exogenous variables are considered. We show in this note, however, that the issue has deeper theoretical roots and offer an analytical demonstration that shows the impossibility of consistency between demand-driven and supply-driven models.

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar : Eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar: eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense Entrevistar infants en edat preescolar que han viscut una situació traumàtica és una tasca complexa que dins l’avaluació psicològica forense necessita d’un protocol perfectament delimitat, clar i temporalitzat. Per això, s’han seleccionat 3 protocols d’entrevista: el Protocol de Menors (PM) de Bull i Birch, el model del National Institute for Children Development (NICHD) de Michel Lamb, a partir del qual es va desenvolupar l’EASI (Evaluación del Abuso Sexual Infantojuvenil) i l’Entrevista Cognitiva (EC) de Fisher i Geiselman. La hipòtesi de partida vol comprovar si els anteriors models permeten obtenir volums informatius diferents en infants preescolars. Conseqüentment, els objectius han estat determinar quin dels models d’entrevista permet obtenir un volum informatiu amb més precisions i menys errors, dissenyar un model d’entrevista propi i consensuar aquest model. En el treball s’afegeixen esquemes pràctics que facilitin l’obertura, desenvolupament i tancament de l’entrevista forense. La metodologia ha reproduït el binomi infant - esdeveniment traumàtic, mitjançant la visualització i l’explicació d’un fet emocionalment significatiu amb facilitat per identificar-se: l’accident en bicicleta d’un infant que cau, es fa mal, sagna i el seu pare el cura. A partir d’aquí, hem entrevistat 135 infants de P3, P4 i P5, mitjançant els 3 models d’entrevista referits, enfrontant-los a una demanda específica: recordar i narrar aquest esdeveniment. S’ha conclòs que el nivell de record correcte, quan s’utilitza un model d’entrevista adequat amb els infants en edat preescolar, oscil•la entre el 70-90%, fet que permet defensar la confiança en els records dels infants. Es constata que el percentatge d’emissions incorrectes dels infants en edat preescolar és mínim, al voltant d’un 5-6%. L’estudi remarca la necessitat d’establir perfectament les regles de l’entrevista i, per últim, en destaca la ineficàcia de les tècniques de memòria de l’entrevista cognitiva en els infants de P3 i P4. En els de P5 es comencen a veure beneficis gràcies a la tècnica de la reinstauració contextual (RC), estant les altres tècniques fora de la comprensió i utilització dels infants d’aquestes edats. Interviewing preschoolers victims of sexual abuse and/or domestic abuse: Effectiveness of forensic interviews models 135 preschool children were interviewed with 3 different interview models in order to remember a significant emotional event. Authors conclude that the correct recall of children ranging from 70-90% and the percentage of error messages is 5-6%. It is necessary to fully establish the rules of the interview. The present research highlights the effectiveness of the cognitive interview techniques in children from P3 and P4. Entrevistando niños preescolares víctimas de abuso sexual y/o maltrato familiar: eficacia de los modelos de entrevista forense Se han entrevistado 135 niños preescolares con 3 modelos de entrevista diferentes para recordar un hecho emocionalmente significativo. Se concluye que el recuerdo correcto de los niños oscila entre el 70-90% y el porcentaje de errores de mensajes es del 5-6%. El estudio remarca la necesidad de establecer perfectamente las reglas de la entrevista y se destaca la ineficacia de las técnicas de la entrevista cognitiva en los niños de P3 y P4.

Stable isotope geochemistry and formation mechanisms of quartz veins; Extreme paleoaltitudes of the Central Alps in the Neogene

Quartz veins ranging in size from less than 50 cm length and 5 cm width to greater than 10 m in length and 5 m in width are found throughout the Central Swiss Alps. In some cases, the veins are completely filled with milky quartz, while in others, sometimes spectacular void-filling quartz crystals are found. The style of vein filling and size is controlled by host rock composition and deformation history. Temperatures of vein formation, estimated using stable isotope thermometry and mineral equilibria, cover a range of 450 degrees C down to 150 degrees C. Vein formation started at 18 to 20 Ma and continued for over 10 My. The oxygen isotope values of quartz veins range from 10 to 20 permil, and in almost all cases are equal to those of the hosting lithology. The strongly rock-buffered veins imply a low fluid/rock ratio and minimal fluid flow. In order to explain massive, nearly morromineralic quartz formation without exceptionally large fluid fluxes, a mechanism of differential pressure and silica diffusion, combined with pressure solution, is proposed for early vein formation. Fluid inclusions and hydrous minerals in late-formed veins have extremely low delta D values, consistent with meteoric water infiltration. The change from rock-buffered, static fluid to infiltration from above can be explained in terms of changes in the large-scale deformation style occurring between 20 and 15 Ma. The rapid cooling of the Central Alps identified in previous studies may be explained in part, by infiltration of cold meteoric waters along fracture systems down to depths of 10 km or more. An average water flux of 0.15 cm 3 cm(-2)yr(-1) entering the rock and reemerging heated by 40 degrees C is sufficient to cool rock at 10 km depth by 100 degrees C in 5 million years. The very negative delta D values of < -130 permil for the late stage fluids are well below the annual average values measured in meteoric water in the region today. The low fossil delta D values indicate that the Central Alps were at a higher elevation in the Neogene. Such a conclusion is supported by an earlier work, where a paleoaltitude of 5000 meters was proposed on the basis of large erratic boulders found at low elevations far from their origin.

The longitudinal association between social functioning and theory of mind in first episode psychosis

Introduction. There is some cross-sectional evidence that theory of mind ability is associated with social functioning in those with psychosis but the direction of this relationship is unknown. This study investigates the longitudinal association between both theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome in first-episode psychosis. Methods. Fifty-four people with first-episode psychosis were followed up at 6 and 12 months. Random effects regression models were used to estimate the stability of theory of mind over time and the association between baseline theory of mind and psychotic symptoms and social functioning outcome. Results. Neither baseline theory of mind ability (regression coefficients: Hinting test 1.07 95% CI 0.74, 2.88; Visual Cartoon test 2.91 95% CI 7.32, 1.51) nor baseline symptoms (regression coefficients: positive symptoms 0.04 95% CI 1.24, 1.16; selected negative symptoms 0.15 95% CI 2.63, 2.32) were associated with social functioning outcome. There was evidence that theory of mind ability was stable over time, (regression coefficients: Hinting test 5.92 95% CI 6.66, 8.92; Visual Cartoon test score 0.13 95% CI 0.17, 0.44). Conclusions. Neither baseline theory of mind ability nor psychotic symptoms are associated with social functioning outcome. Further longitudinal work is needed to understand the origin of social functioning deficits in psychosis.

Comparative Analysis by Polymerase Chain Reaction Amplified Minicircles of Kinetoplast DNA of a Stable Strain of Trypanosoma cruzi from São Felipe, Bahia, its Clones and Subclones: Possibility of Predominance of a Principal Clone in this Area

Molecular characterization of one stable strain of Trypanosoma cruzi, the 21 SF, representative of the pattern of strains isolated from the endemic area of São Felipe, State of Bahia, Brazil, maintained for 15 years in laboratory by serial passages in mice and classified as biodeme Type II and zymodeme 2 has been investigated. The kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) of parental strain, 5 clones and 14 subclones were analyzed. Schizodeme was established by comparative study of the fragments obtained from digestion of the 330-bp fragments amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from the variable regions of the minicicles, and digested by restriction endonucleases Rsa I and Hinf I. Our results show a high percentual of similarity between the restriction fragment lenght polymorphism (RFLP) for the parental strain and its clones and among these individual clones and their subclones at a level of 80 to 100%.This homology indicates a predominance of the same "principal clone" in the 21SF strain and confirms the homogeneity previously observed at biological and isozymic analysis. These results suggest the possibility that the T. cruzi strains with similar biological and isoenzymic patterns, circulating in this endemic area, are representative of one dominant clone. The presence of "principal clones" could be responsible for a predominant tropism of the parasites for specific organs and tissues and this could contribute to the pattern of clinico-pathological manifestations of Chagas's disease in one geographical area.

Three-dimensional models of 14α-sterol demethylase (Cyp51A) from Aspergillus lentulus and Aspergillus fumigatus: an insight into differences in voriconazole interaction.

Aspergillus lentulus, an Aspergillus fumigatus sibling species, is increasingly reported in corticosteroid-treated patients. Its clinical significance is unknown, but the fact that A. lentulus shows reduced antifungal susceptibility, mainly to voriconazole, is of serious concern. Heterologous expression of cyp51A from A. fumigatus and A. lentulus was performed in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to assess differences in the interaction of Cyp51A with the azole drugs. The absence of endogenous ERG11 was efficiently complemented in S. cerevisiae by the expression of either Aspergillus cyp51A allele. There was a marked difference between azole minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the clones expressing each Aspergillus spp. cyp51A. Saccharomyces cerevisiae clones expressing A. lentulus alleles showed higher MICs to all of the azoles tested, supporting the hypothesis that the intrinsic azole resistance of A. lentulus could be associated with Cyp51A. Homology models of A. fumigatus and A. lentulus Cyp51A protein based on the crystal structure of Cyp51p from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in complex with fluconazole were almost identical owing to their mutual high sequence identity. Molecular dynamics (MD) was applied to both three-dimensional protein models to refine the homology modelling and to explore possible differences in the Cyp51A-voriconazole interaction. After 20ns of MD modelling, some critical differences were observed in the putative closed form adopted by the protein upon voriconazole binding. A closer study of the A. fumigatus and A. lentulus voriconazole putative binding site in Cyp51A suggested that some major differences in the protein's BC loop could differentially affect the lock-up of voriconazole, which in turn could correlate with their different azole susceptibility profiles.

Predictors of nonresponse in a questionnaire-based outcome study of vocational rehabilitation patients.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of nonresponse to a self-report study of patients with orthopedic trauma hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation between November 15, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The role of biopsychosocial complexity, assessed using the INTERMED, was of particular interest. DESIGN: Cohort study. Questionnaires with quality of life, sociodemographic, and job-related questions were given to patients at hospitalization and 1 year after discharge. Sociodemographic data, biopsychosocial complexity, and presence of comorbidity were available at hospitalization (baseline) for all eligible patients. Logistic regression models were used to test a number of baseline variables as potential predictors of nonresponse to the questionnaires at each of the 2 time points. SETTING: Rehabilitation clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N=990) hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation over a period of 2 years. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Nonresponse to the questionnaires was the binary dependent variable. RESULTS: Patients with high biopsychosocial complexity, foreign native language, or low educational level were less likely to respond at both time points. Younger patients were less likely to respond at 1 year. Those living in a stable partnership were less likely than singles to respond at hospitalization. Sex, psychiatric, and somatic comorbidity and alcoholism were never associated with nonresponse. CONCLUSIONS: We stress the importance of assessing biopsychosocial complexity to predict nonresponse. Furthermore, the factors we found to be predictive of nonresponse are also known to influence treatment outcome and vocational rehabilitation. Therefore, it is important to increase the response rate of the groups of concern in order to reduce selection bias in epidemiologic investigations.

Predictive models of syncope causes in an outpatient clinic

The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

Synchronous versus asynchronous modeling of gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: In silico modeling of gene regulatory networks has gained some momentum recently due to increased interest in analyzing the dynamics of biological systems. This has been further facilitated by the increasing availability of experimental data on gene-gene, protein-protein and gene-protein interactions. The two dynamical properties that are often experimentally testable are perturbations and stable steady states. Although a lot of work has been done on the identification of steady states, not much work has been reported on in silico modeling of cellular differentiation processes. RESULTS: In this manuscript, we provide algorithms based on reduced ordered binary decision diagrams (ROBDDs) for Boolean modeling of gene regulatory networks. Algorithms for synchronous and asynchronous transition models have been proposed and their corresponding computational properties have been analyzed. These algorithms allow users to compute cyclic attractors of large networks that are currently not feasible using existing software. Hereby we provide a framework to analyze the effect of multiple gene perturbation protocols, and their effect on cell differentiation processes. These algorithms were validated on the T-helper model showing the correct steady state identification and Th1-Th2 cellular differentiation process. AVAILABILITY: The software binaries for Windows and Linux platforms can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/~garg/genysis.html.

Repeated injections of 131I-rituximab show patient-specific stable biodistribution and tissue kinetics.

PURPOSE: It is generally assumed that the biodistribution and pharmacokinetics of radiolabelled antibodies remain similar between dosimetric and therapeutic injections in radioimmunotherapy. However, circulation half-lives of unlabelled rituximab have been reported to increase progressively after the weekly injections of standard therapy doses. The aim of this study was to evaluate the evolution of the pharmacokinetics of repeated 131I-rituximab injections during treatment with unlabelled rituximab in patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). METHODS: Patients received standard weekly therapy with rituximab (375 mg/m2) for 4 weeks and a fifth injection at 7 or 8 weeks. Each patient had three additional injections of 185 MBq 131I-rituximab in either treatment weeks 1, 3 and 7 (two patients) or weeks 2, 4 and 8 (two patients). The 12 radiolabelled antibody injections were followed by three whole-body (WB) scintigraphic studies during 1 week and blood sampling on the same occasions. Additional WB scans were performed after 2 and 4 weeks post 131I-rituximab injection prior to the second and third injections, respectively. RESULTS: A single exponential radioactivity decrease for WB, liver, spleen, kidneys and heart was observed. Biodistribution and half-lives were patient specific, and without significant change after the second or third injection compared with the first one. Blood T(1/2)beta, calculated from the sequential blood samples and fitted to a bi-exponential curve, was similar to the T(1/2) of heart and liver but shorter than that of WB and kidneys. Effective radiation dose calculated from attenuation-corrected WB scans and blood using Mirdose3.1 was 0.53+0.05 mSv/MBq (range 0.48-0.59 mSv/MBq). Radiation dose was highest for spleen and kidneys, followed by heart and liver. CONCLUSION: These results show that the biodistribution and tissue kinetics of 131I-rituximab, while specific to each patient, remained constant during unlabelled antibody therapy. RIT radiation doses can therefore be reliably extrapolated from a preceding dosimetry study.

Oligo-Miocene extensional tectonics and fluid flow across the Northern Snake Range detachment system, Nevada

The Northern Snake Range (Nevada) represents a spectacular example of a metamorphic core complex and exposes a complete section from the mylonitic footwall into the hanging wall of a fossil detachment system. Paired geochronological and stable isotopic data of mylonitic quartzite within the detachment footwall reveal that ductile deformation and infiltration of meteoric fluids occurred between 27 and 23 Ma. Ar-40/Ar-39 ages display complex recrystallization-cooling relationships but decrease systematically from 26.9 +/- 0.2 Ma at the top to 21.3 +/- 0.2 Ma at the bottom of footwall mylonite. Hydrogen isotope (delta D) values in white mica are very low (-150 to -145 %) within the top 80-90 m of detachment footwall, in contrast to values obtained from the deeper part of the section where values range from -77 to -64 %, suggesting that time-integrated interaction between rock and meteoric fluid was restricted to the uppermost part of the mylonitic footwall. Pervasive mica-water hydrogen isotope exchange is difficult to reconcile with models of Ar-40 loss during mylonitization solely by volume diffusion. Rather, we interpret the Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of white mica with low-delta D values to date syn-mylonitic hydrogen and argon isotope exchange, and we conclude that the hydrothermal system of the Northern Snake Range was active during late Oligocene (27-23 Ma) and has been exhumed by the combined effects of ductile strain, extensional detachment faulting, and erosion.

Age-specific incidence of all neoplasms after colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Patients diagnosed with a specific neoplasm tend to have a subsequent excess risk of the same neoplasm. The age incidence of a second neoplasm at the same site is approximately constant with age, and consequently the relative risk is greater at younger age. It is unclear whether such a line of reasoning can be extended from a specific neoplasm to the incidence of all neoplasms in subjects diagnosed with a defined neoplasm. METHODS: We considered the age-specific incidence of all non-hormone-related epithelial neoplasms after a first primary colorectal cancer (n = 9542) in the Vaud Cancer Registry data set. RESULTS: In subjects with a previous colorectal cancer, the incidence rate of all other epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was stable around 800 per 100,000 between age 30 and 60 years, and rose only about twofold to reach 1685 at age 70 to 79 years and 1826 per 100,000 at age 80 years or older. After excluding synchronous cancers, the rise was only about 1.5-fold, that is, from about 700 to 1000. In the general population, the incidence rate of all epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was 29 per 100,000 at age 30 to 39 years, and rose 30-fold to 883 per 100,000 at age 70 to 79 years. Excluding colorectal cancers, the rise of all non-hormone-related cancers was from 360 per 100,000 at age 40 to 49 years to 940 at age 70 to 79 years after colorectal cancer, and from 90 to 636 per 100,000 in the general population (i.e., 2.6- vs. 7.1-fold). CONCLUSIONS: The rise of incidence with age of all epithelial non-hormone-related second cancers after colorectal cancer is much smaller than in the general population. This can possibly be related to the occurrence of a single mutational event in a population of susceptible individuals, although alternative models are plausible within the complexity of the process of carcinogenesis.

Multi-stage oligopoly models with nested logit demand structures: A simplifying approach

Solving multi-stage oligopoly models by backward induction can easily become a com- plex task when rms are multi-product and demands are derived from a nested logit frame- work. This paper shows that under the assumption that within-segment rm shares are equal across segments, the analytical expression for equilibrium pro ts can be substantially simpli ed. The size of the error arising when this condition does not hold perfectly is also computed. Through numerical examples, it is shown that the error is rather small in general. Therefore, using this assumption allows to gain analytical tractability in a class of models that has been used to approach relevant policy questions, such as for example rm entry in an industry or the relation between competition and location. The simplifying approach proposed in this paper is aimed at helping improving these type of models for reaching more accurate recommendations.