Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural-urban landscapes

Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south-east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (< 1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100-1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.

Changes in the properties of a Vertisol and responses of wheat after compaction with harvester traffic

Soil compaction has been recognised as the greatest problem in terms of damage to Australia's soil resource. Compaction by tractor and harvester tyres, related to trafficking of wet soil, is one source of the problem. In this paper an array of soil properties was measured before and immediately after the application of a known compaction force to a wet Vertisol, A local grain harvester was used on soil that was just trafficable; a common scenario at harvest. The primary aim was to determine the changes in various soil properties in order to provide a benchmark against which the effectiveness of future remedial treatments could be evaluated. A secondary aim was a comparison of the measurements' efficiency to assess a soil's structural degradation status. Also assessed was the subsequent effect of the applied compaction on wheat growth and yield in the following cropping season. Nine of the soil properties measured gave statistically significant differences as a result of the soil compaction. Differences were mostly restricted to the top 0.2 m of the soil. The greatest measured depth of effect was decreased soil porosity to 0.4 m measured from intact soil clods. There was 72% emergence of the wheat crop planted into the compact soil and 93% in the uncompact soil. Wheat yield, however, was not affected by the compaction. This may demonstrate that wheat, growing on a full profile of stored soil water as did the current crop, may be little affected by compaction, Also, wheat may have potential to facilitate rapid repair of the damage in a Vertisol such as the current soil by drying the topsoil between rainfall events so increasing shrinking and swelling cycles. If this is true, then sowing a suitable crop species in a Vertisol may be a better option than tillage for repairing compaction damage by agricultural traffic. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A numerical study of steady state evaporative conditions applied to mine tailings

The suction profile of a desiccating soil is dependent on the water table depth, the soil-water retention characteristics, and the climatic conditions. In this paper, an unsaturated flow model, which simulates both liquid and vapour flow, was used to investigate the effects of varying the water table depth and the evaporation rate on the evaporative fluxes from a desiccating tailings deposit under steady-state conditions. Results obtained showed that at a critical evaporation rate, beyond which evaporation is no longer dictated by climatic conditions, the matric suction profiles remain basically unchanged. The critical evaporation rate varies inversely with the water table depth. It is associated with the maximum evaporative flux that might be extracted from a soil at steady-state conditions. The time required to establish steady-state conditions is directly proportional to the water table depth, and it acquires a maximum value at the critical evaporation rate. A detailed investigation of the movement of the drying front demonstrated the significance of attaining a matric suction of about 3000 kPa on the contribution to flow in the vapour phase.

National whoppercropper - risk management discussion support software

It is a paradox that in a country with one of the most variable climates in the world, cropping decisions are sometimes made with limited consideration of production and resource management risks. There are significant opportunities for improved performance based on targeted information regarding risks resulting from decision options. WhopperCropper is a tool to help agricultural advisors and farmers capture these benefits and use it to add value to their intuition and experience. WhopperCropper allows probability analysis of the effects of a range of selectable crop inputs and existing resources on yield and economic outcomes. Inputs can include agronomic inputs (e.g crop type, N fertiliser rate), resources (e.g soil water at sowing), and seasonal climate forecast (SOI phase). WhopperCropper has been successfully developed and refined as a discussion-support process for decision makers and their advisers in the northern grains region of Australia. The next phase of the project will build on the current project by extending its application nationally and enhancing the resource management aspects. A commercial partner, with over 800 advisor clients nationally, will participate in the project.

Organic Matter Dynamics in the Wet Tropics Under Different Sugarcane Residue Management Regimes

Retention of sugarcane leaves and tops on the soil surface after harvesting has almost completely replaced pre- and post-harvest burning of crop residues in the Australian sugar industry. Since its introduction around 25 years ago, residue retention has increased soil organic matter to improve soil fertility as well as improve harvest flexibility and reduce erosion. However, in the wet tropics residue retention also poses potential problems of prolonged waterlogging, and late-season release of nitrogen which can reduce sugar content of the crop. The objective of this project is to examine the management of sugarcane residues in the wet tropics using a systems approach. Subsidiary objectives are (a) to improve understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils in the wet tropics, and (b) to identify ways to manage crop residues to retain their advantages and limit their disadvantages. Project objectives will be addressed using several approaches. Historic farm production data recorded by sugar mills in the wet tropics will be analysed to determine the effect of residue burning or retention on crop yield and sugar content. The impact of climate on soil processes will be highlighed by development of an index of nitrogen mineralisation using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Increased understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils and management of crop residues will be gained through a field experiment recently established in the Australian wet tropics. From this experiment the decomposition and nitrogen dynamics of residues placed on the soil surface and incorporated will be compared. The effect of differences in temperature, soil water content and pH will be further examined on these soils under glasshouse conditions. Preliminary results show a high ammonium to nitrate ratio in tropics soils, which may be due to low rates of nitrification that increase the retention of nitrogen in a form (ammonium) that is less subject to leaching. Further results will be presented at Congress.

Changes of corneal biomechanics with keratoconus

PURPOSE: To perform advanced analysis of the corneal deformation response to air pressure in keratoconics compared with age- and sex-matched controls. METHODS: The ocular response analyzer was used to measure the air pressure-corneal deformation relationship of 37 patients with keratoconus and 37 age (mean 36 ± 10 years)- and sex-matched controls with healthy corneas. Four repeat air pressure-corneal deformation profiles were averaged, and 42 separate parameters relating to each element of the profiles were extracted. Corneal topography and pachymetry were performed with the Orbscan II. The severity of the keratoconus was graded based on a single metric derived from anterior corneal curvatures, difference in astigmatism in each meridian, anterior best-fit sphere, and posterior best-fit sphere. RESULTS: Most of the biomechanical characteristics of keratoconic eyes were significantly different from normal eyes (P <0.001), especially during the initial corneal applanation. With increasing keratoconus severity, the cornea was thinner (r = -0.407, P <0.001), the speed of corneal concave deformation past applanation was quicker (dive; r = -0.314, P = 0.01), and the tear film index was lower (r = -0.319, P = 0.01). The variance in keratoconus severity could be accounted for by the corneal curvature and central corneal thickness (r = 0.80) with biomechanical characteristics contributing an additional 4% (total r = 0.84). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.919 ± 0.025 for keratometry alone, 0.965 ± 0.014 with the addition of pachymetry, and 0.972 ± 0.012 combined with ocular response analyzer biomechanical parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of the air pressure-corneal deformation profile are more affected by keratoconus than the traditionally extracted corneal hysteresis and corneal resistance factors. These biomechanical metrics slightly improved the detection and severity prediction of keratoconus above traditional keratometric and pachymetric assessment of corneal shape.

A non-linear discrete stochastic optimization model for Advanced Access patient appointment scheduling

Access to healthcare is a major problem in which patients are deprived of receiving timely admission to healthcare. Poor access has resulted in significant but avoidable healthcare cost, poor quality of healthcare, and deterioration in the general public health. Advanced Access is a simple and direct approach to appointment scheduling in which the majority of a clinic's appointments slots are kept open in order to provide access for immediate or same day healthcare needs and therefore, alleviate the problem of poor access the healthcare. This research formulates a non-linear discrete stochastic mathematical model of the Advanced Access appointment scheduling policy. The model objective is to maximize the expected profit of the clinic subject to constraints on minimum access to healthcare provided. Patient behavior is characterized with probabilities for no-show, balking, and related patient choices. Structural properties of the model are analyzed to determine whether Advanced Access patient scheduling is feasible. To solve the complex combinatorial optimization problem, a heuristic that combines greedy construction algorithm and neighborhood improvement search was developed. The model and the heuristic were used to evaluate the Advanced Access patient appointment policy compared to existing policies. Trade-off between profit and access to healthcare are established, and parameter analysis of input parameters was performed. The trade-off curve is a characteristic curve and was observed to be concave. This implies that there exists an access level at which at which the clinic can be operated at optimal profit that can be realized. The results also show that, in many scenarios by switching from existing scheduling policy to Advanced Access policy clinics can improve access without any decrease in profit. Further, the success of Advanced Access policy in providing improved access and/or profit depends on the expected value of demand, variation in demand, and the ratio of demand for same day and advanced appointments. The contributions of the dissertation are a model of Advanced Access patient scheduling, a heuristic to solve the model, and the use of the model to understand the scheduling policy trade-offs which healthcare clinic managers must make. ^

Pattern of nutrient availability and plant community assemblage in Everglades Tree Islands, Florida, USA

We address the relative importance of nutrient availability in relation to other physical and biological factors in determining plant community assemblages around Everglades Tree Islands (Everglades National Park, Florida, USA). We carried out a one-time survey of elevation, soil, water level and vegetation structure and composition at 138 plots located along transects in three tree islands in the Park’s major drainage basin. We used an RDA variance partitioning technique to assess the relative importance of nutrient availability (soil N and P) and other factors in explaining herb and tree assemblages of tree island tail and surrounded marshes. The upland areas of the tree islands accumulate P and show low N concentration, producing a strong island-wide gradient in soil N:P ratio. While soil N:P ratio plays a significant role in determining herb layer and tree layer community assemblage in tree island tails, nevertheless part of its variance is shared with hydrology. The total species variance explained by the predictors is very low. We define a strong gradient in nutrient availability (soil N:P ratio) closely related to hydrology. Hydrology and nutrient availability are both factors influencing community assemblages around tree islands, nevertheless both seem to be acting together and in a complex mechanism. Future research should be focused on segregating these two factors in order to determine whether nutrient leaching from tree islands is a factor determining community assemblages and local landscape pattern in the Everglades, and how this process might be affected by water management.

Biogeochemistry of Nitrogen Across the Everglades Landscape

Compared to phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N) has received little attention across the Everglades landscape. Despite this lack of attention, N plays important roles in many Everglades systems, including being a significant pollutant in Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, the limiting nutrient in highly P-impacted areas, and an important substrate for microbial metabolism. Storage and transport of N throughout the Everglades is dominated by organic forms, including peat soils and dissolved organic N in the water column. In general, N sources are highest in the northern areas; however, atmospheric deposition and active N2 fixation by the periphyton components are a significant N source throughout most systems. Many of the processes involved in the wetland N cycle remain unmeasured for most of the Everglades systems. In particular, the lack of in situ rates for N2 fixation and denitrification prevent the construction of system-level budgets, especially for the Southern mangrove systems where N export into Florida Bay is critical. There is also the potential for several novel N processes (e.g., Anammox) with an as yet undetermined importance for nitrogen cycling and function of the Everglades ecosystem. Phosphorus loading alters the N cycle by stimulating organic N mineralization with resulting flux of ammonium and DON, and at elevated P concentrations, by increasing rates of N2 fixation and N assimilation. Restoration of hydrology has a potential for significantly impacting N cycling in the Everglades both in terms of affecting N transport, but also by altering aerobic-anaerobic transitions at the soil-water interface or in areas with seasonal drawdowns (e.g., marl prairies). Based on the authors’ understanding of N processes, much more research is necessary to adequately predict potential impacts from hydrologic restoration, as well as the function of Everglades systems as sinks, sources, and transformers of N in the South Florida landscape.

Flux of organic carbon in a riverine mangrove wetland in the Florida Coastal Everglades

Short-term (daily) and seasonal variations in concentration and flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were examined over 15 tidal cycles in a riverine mangrove wetland along Shark River, Florida in 2003. Due to the influence of seasonal rainfall and wind patterns on Shark River’s hydrology, samplings were made to include wet, dry and transitional (Norte) seasons. We used a flume extending from a tidal creek to a basin forest to measure vertical (vegetated soil/water column) and horizontal (mangrove forest/tidal creek) flux of DOC. We found significant (p < 0.05) variations in surface water temperature, salinity, conductivity, pH and mean concentration of DOC with season. Water temperature and salinity followed seasonal patterns of air temperature and rainfall, while mean DOC concentration was highest during the dry season (May), followed by the wet (October) and ‘Norte’ (December) seasons. This pattern of DOC concentration may be due to a combination of litter production and inundation pattern of the wetland. In contrast to daily (between tides) variation in DOC flux between the mangrove forest and tidal creek, daily variations of mean water quality were not significant. However, within-tide variation of DOC flux, dissolved oxygen content and salinity was observed. This indicated that the length of inundation and water source (freshwater vs. saltwater) variation across tidal cycles influenced water quality and DOC flux in the water column. Net DOC export was measured in October and December, suggesting the mangrove forest was a source of DOC to the adjacent tidal creek during these periods. Net annual export of DOC from the fringe mangrove to both the tidal creek and basin mangrove forest was 56 g C m−2 year−1. The seasonal pattern in our flux results indicates that DOC flux from this mangrove forest may be governed by both freshwater discharge and tidal range.

Ecophysiological characteristics of Avicennia germinans and Laguncularia racemosa coexisting in a scrub mangrove forest at the Indian River Lagoon, Florida

The purpose of this work is to increase ecological understanding of Avicennia germinans L. and Laguncularia racemosa (L.) Gaertn. F. growing in hypersaline habitats with a seasonal climate. The area has a dry season (DS) with low temperature and vapour pressure deficit (vpd), and a wet season (WS) with high temperature and slightly higher vpd. Seasonal patterns in interstitial soil water salinity suggested a lack of tidal flushing in this area to remove salt along the soil profile. The soil solution sodium/potassium (Na+/K+) ratio differed slightly along the soil profile during the DS, but during the WS it was significantly higher at the soil surface. Diurnal changes in xylem osmolality between predawn (higher) and midday (lower) were observed in both species. However, A. germinans had higher xylem osmolality compared to L. racemosa. Xylem Na+/K+ suggested higher selectivity of K+ over Na+ in both species and seasons. The water relations parameters derived from pressure–volume P–V curves were relatively stable between seasons for each species. The range of water potentials (Ψ), measured in the field, was within estimated values for turgor maintenance from P–V curves. Thus the leaves of both species were osmotically adapted to maintain continued water uptake in this hypersaline mangrove environment.

Hydro-physical characterization of media used in agricultural systems to develop the best management practices for operation of an environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

Florida is the second leading horticulture state in the United States with a total annual industry sale of over $12 Billion. Due to its competitive nature, agricultural plant production represents an extremely intensive practice with large amounts of water and fertilizer usage. Agrochemical and water management are vital for efficient functioning of any agricultural enterprise, and the subsequent nutrient loading from such agricultural practices has been a concern for environmentalists. A thorough understanding of the agrochemical and the soil amendments used in these agricultural systems is of special interest as contamination of soils can cause surface and groundwater pollution leading to ecosystem toxicity. The presence of fragile ecosystems such as the Everglades, Biscayne Bay and Big Cypress near enterprises that use such agricultural systems makes the whole issue even more imminent. Although significant research has been conducted with soils and soil mix, there is no acceptable method for determining the hydraulic properties of mixtures that have been subjected to organic and inorganic soil amendments. Hydro-physical characterization of such mixtures can facilitate the understanding of water retention and permeation characteristics of the commonly used mix which can further allow modeling of soil water interactions. The objective of this study was to characterize some of the locally and commercially available plant growth mixtures for their hydro-physical properties and develop mathematical models to correlate these acquired basic properties to the hydraulic conductivity of the mixture. The objective was also to model the response patterns of soil amendments present in those mixtures to different water and fertilizer use scenarios using the characterized hydro-physical properties with the help of Everglades-Agro-Hydrology Model. The presence of organic amendments helps the mixtures retain more water while the inorganic amendments tend to adsorb more nutrients due to their high surface area. The results of these types of characterization can provide a scientific basis for understanding the non-point source water pollution from horticulture production systems and assist in the development of the best management practices for the operation of environmentally sustainable agricultural enterprise

Mercury interactions with suspended solids at the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

A water quality model was developed to analyze the impact of hydrological events on mercury contamination of the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee. The model simulates surface and subsurface hydrology and transport (MIKE SHE and MIKE 11) and it is coupled with the reactive transport of sediments and mercury (ECOLAB). The model was used to simulate the distribution of mercury contamination in the water and sediments as a function of daily hydrological events. Results from the model show a high correlation between suspended solids and mercury in the water due to the affinity of mercury with suspended organics. The governing parameters for the distribution of total suspended solids and mercury contamination were the critical velocity of the stream for particle resuspension, the rates of resuspension and production of particles, settling velocity, soil-water partition coefficient, and desorption rate of mercury in the water. Flow and load duration curves at the watershed exit were used to calibrate the model and to determine the impact of hydrological events on the total maximum daily load at Station 17. The results confirmed the strong link between hydrology and mercury transport.

Surfactant solubilization and subsequent bioavailability of phenanthrene

Contamination of soil, sediment and groundwater by hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) is a matter of growing concern because groundwater is a valuable and limited resource, and because such contamination is difficult to address. This investigation involved an experimental evaluation of the addition of several surfactant solutions to aqueous and soil-water systems contaminated with phenanthrene, a selected HOC. The results are presented in terms of: * phenanthrene solubilization achieved through surfactant addition * observed effects of surfactant addition on the mineralization of phenanthrene * estimation of relative toxicities of various surfactants using toxicity assays * literature-reported biodegradability/persistence of selected surfactants * surfactant sorption/precipitation onto soil and its impacts on proposed use of surfactant-amended remediation Surfactants were observed to facilitate the transfer of phenanthrene from the soil-sorbed phase to the aqueous pseudophase, however, surfactant solubilization did not translate into enhanced phenanthrene biodegradation.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.