Mid-term evaluation of African Technology Policy Studies Network Phase VI Strategic Plan: for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010

The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) is a multidisciplinary network of researchers, private sector actors, policymakers and civil society. ATPS has the vision to become the leading international centre of excellence and reference in science, technology and innovation (STI) systems research, training and capacity building, communication and sensitization, knowledge brokerage, policy advocacy and outreach in Africa. It has a Regional Secretariat in Nairobi Kenya, and operates through national chapters in 29 countries (including 27 in Africa and two Chapters in the United Kingdom and USA for Africans in the Diaspora) with an expansion plan to cover the entire continent by 2015. The ATPS Phase VI Strategic Plan aims to improve the understanding and functioning of STI processes and systems to strengthen the learning capacity, social responses, and governance of STI for addressing Africa's development challenges, with a specific focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A team of external evaluators carried out a midterm review to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the Strategic Plan for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. The evaluation methodology involved multiple quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the qualitative and quantitative inputs (human resources, financial resources, time, etc.) into ATPS activities (both thematic and facilitative) and their tangible and intangible outputs, outcomes and impacts. Methods included a questionnaire survey of ATPS members and stakeholders, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with members in six countries. Effectiveness of Programmes Under all six strategic goals, very good progress has been made towards planned outputs and outcomes. This is evidenced by key performance indicators (KPIs) generated from desk review, ratings from the survey respondents, and the themes that run through the FGDs. Institutional and Programme Cost Effectiveness Institutional Effectiveness: assessment of institutional effectiveness suggests that adequate management frameworks are in place and are being used effectively and transparently. Also technical and financial accounting mechanisms are being followed in accordance with grant agreements and with global good practice. This is evidenced by KPIs generated from desk review. Programme Cost Effectiveness: assessment of cost-effectiveness of execution of programmes shows that organisational structure is efficient, delivering high quality, relevant research at relatively low cost by international standards. The evidence includes KPIs from desk review: administrative costs to programme cost ratio has fallen steadily, to around 10%; average size of research grants is modest, without compromising quality. There is high level of pro bono input by ATPS members. ATPS Programmes Strategic Evaluation ATPS research and STI related activities are indeed unique and well aligned with STI issues and needs facing Africa and globally. The multi-disciplinary and trans-boundary nature of the research activities are creating a unique group of research scientists. The ATPS approach to research and STI issues is paving the way for the so called Third Generation University (3GU). Understanding this unique positioning, an increasing number of international multilateral agencies are seeking partnership with ATPS. ATPS is seeing an increasing level of funding commitments by Donor Partners. Recommendations for ATPS Continued Growth and Effectiveness On-going reform of ATPS administrative structure to continue The on-going reforms that have taken place within the Board, Regional Secretariat, and at the National Chapter coordination levels are welcomed. Such reform should continue until fully functional corporate governance policy and practices are fully established and implemented across the ATPS governance structures. This will further strengthen ATPS to achieve the vision of being the leading STI policy brokerage organization in Africa. Although training in corporate governance has been carried out for all sectors of ATPS leadership structure in recent time, there is some evidence that these systems have not yet been fully implemented effectively within all the governance structures of the organization, especially at the Board and National chapter levels. Future training should emphasize practical application with exercises relevant to ATPS leadership structure from the Board to the National Chapter levels. Training on Transformational Leadership - Leading a Change Though a subject of intense debate amongst economists and social scientists, it is generally agreed that cultural mindsets and attitudes could enhance and/or hinder organizational progress. ATPS’s vision demands transformational leadership skills amongst its leaders from the Board members to the National Chapter Coordinators. To lead such a change, ATPS leaders must understand and avoid personal and cultural mindsets and value systems that hinder change, while embracing those that enhance it. It requires deliberate assessment of cultural, behavioural patterns that could hinder progress and the willingness to be recast into cultural and personal habits that make for progress. Improvement of relationship amongst the Board, Secretariat, and National Chapters A large number of ATPS members and stakeholders feel they do not have effective communications and/or access to Board, National Chapter Coordinators and Regional Secretariat activities. Effort should be made to improve the implementation of ATPS communication strategy to improve on information flows amongst the ATPS management and the members. The results of the survey and the FGDs suggest that progress has been made during the past two years in this direction, but more could be done to ensure effective flow of pertinent information to members following ATPS communications channels. Strategies for Increased Funding for National Chapters There is a big gap between the fundraising skills of the Regional Secretariat and those of the National Coordinators. In some cases, funds successfully raised by the Secretariat and disbursed to national chapters were not followed up with timely progress and financial reports by some national chapters. Adequate training in relevant skills required for effective interactions with STI key policy players should be conducted regularly for National Chapter coordinators and ATPS members. The ongoing training in grant writing should continue and be made continent-wide if funding permits. Funding of National Chapters should be strategic such that capacity in a specific area of research is built which, with time, will not only lead to a strong research capacity in that area, but also strengthen academic programmes. For example, a strong climate change programme is emerging at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), with strong collaborations with Universities from neighbouring States. Strategies to Increase National Government buy-in and support for STI Translating STI research outcomes into policies requires a great deal of emotional intelligence, skills which are often lacking in the first and second generation universities. In the epoch of the science-based or 2GUs, governments were content with universities carrying out scientific research and providing scientific education. Now they desire to see universities as incubators of new science- or technology-based commercial activities, whether by existing firms or start-ups. Hence, governments demand that universities take an active and leading role in the exploitation of their knowledge and they are willing to make funds available to support such activities. Thus, for universities to gain the attention of national leadership they must become centres of excellence and explicit instruments of economic development in the knowledge-based economy. The universities must do this while working collaboratively with government departments, parastatals, and institutions and dedicated research establishments. ATPS should anticipate these shifting changes and devise programmes to assist both government and universities to relate effectively. New administrative structures in member organizations to sustain and manage the emerging STI multidisciplinary teams Second Generation universities (2GUs) tend to focus on pure science and often do not regard the application of their know-how as their task. In contrast, Third Generation Universities (3GUs) objectively stimulate techno-starters – students or academics – to pursue the exploitation or commercialisation of the knowledge they generate. They view this as being equal in importance to the objectives of scientific research and education. Administratively, research in the 2GU era was mainly monodisciplinary and departments were structured along disciplines. The emerging interdisciplinary scientific teams with focus on specific research areas functionally work against the current mono-disciplinary faculty-based, administrative structure of 2GUs. For interdisciplinary teams, the current faculty system is an obstacle. There is a need for new organisational forms for university management that can create responsibilities for the task of know-how exploitation. ATPS must anticipate this and begin to strategize solutions for their member institutions to transition to 3Gus administrative structure, otherwise ATPS growth will plateau, and progress achieved so far may be stunted.

Modulation of visually evoked cortical fMRI responses by phase of ongoing occipital alpha oscillations

Using simultaneous electroencephalography as a measure of ongoing activity and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) as a measure of the stimulus-driven neural response, we examined whether the amplitude and phase of occipital alpha oscillations at the onset of a brief visual stimulus affects the amplitude of the visually evoked fMRI response. When accounting for intrinsic coupling of alpha amplitude and occipital fMRI signal by modeling and subtracting pseudo-trials, no significant effect of prestimulus alpha amplitude on the evoked fMRI response could be demonstrated. Regarding the effect of alpha phase, we found that stimuli arriving at the peak of the alpha cycle yielded a lower blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) fMRI response in early visual cortex (V1/V2) than stimuli presented at the trough of the cycle. Our results therefore show that phase of occipital alpha oscillations impacts the overall strength of a visually evoked response, as indexed by the BOLD signal. This observation complements existing evidence that alpha oscillations reflect periodic variations in cortical excitability and suggests that the phase of oscillations in postsynaptic potentials can serve as a mechanism of gain control for incoming neural activity. Finally, our findings provide a putative neural basis for observations of alpha phase dependence of visual perceptual performance.

The reaction between silylene and ammonia: some gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by 193 nm laser flash photolysis of silacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out in the presence of ammonia, NH3. Second order kinetics were observed. The reaction was studied in the gas phase at 10 Torr total pressure in SF6 bath gas at each of the three temperatures, 299, 340 and 400 K. The second order rate constants (laser pulse energy of 60 mJ/pulse) fitted the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm3 molecule-1 s-1) = (-10.37 ± 0.17) + (0.36 ± 1.12 kJ mol-1)/RTln10 Experiments at other pressures showed that these rate constants were unaffected by pressure in the range 10-100 Torr, but showed small decreases in value at 3 and 1 Torr. There was also a weak intensity dependence, with rate constants decreasing at laser pulse energies of 30 mJ/pulse. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level of theory, show that SiH2 + NH3 should form an initial adduct (donor-acceptor complex), but that energy barriers are too great for further reaction of the adduct. This implies that SiH2 + NH3 should be a pressure dependent association reaction. The experimental data are inconsistent with this and we conclude that SiH2 decays are better explained by reaction of SiH2 with the amino radical, NH2, formed by photodissociation of NH3 at 193 nm. The mechanism of this previously unstudied reaction is discussed.

Modelling the time-evolution of phytoplankton size spectra from satellite remote sensing

A dynamic size-structured model is developed for phytoplankton and nutrients in the oceanic mixed layer and applied to extract phytoplankton biomass at discrete size fractions from remotely sensed, ocean-colour data. General relationships between cell size and biophysical processes (such as sinking, grazing, and primary production) of phytoplankton were included in the model through a bottom–up approach. Time-dependent, mixed-layer depth was used as a forcing variable, and a sequential data-assimilation scheme was implemented to derive model trajectories. From a given time-series, the method produces estimates of size-structured biomass at every observation, so estimates seasonal succession of individual phytoplankton size, derived here from remote sensing for the first time. From these estimates, normalized phytoplankton biomass size spectra over a period of 9 years were calculated for one location in the North Atlantic. Further analysis demonstrated that strong relationships exist between the seasonal trends of the estimated size spectra and the mixed-layer depth, nutrient biomass, and total chlorophyll. The results contain useful information on the time-dependent biomass flux in the pelagic ecosystem.

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Temperature-dependent orientational ordering on a spherical surface modeled with a lattice spin model

We study the orientational ordering on the surface of a sphere using Monte Carlo and Brownian dynamics simulations of rods interacting with an anisotropic potential. We restrict the orientations to the local tangent plane of the spherical surface and fix the position of each rod to be at a discrete point on the spherical surface. On the surface of a sphere, orientational ordering cannot be perfectly nematic due to the inevitable presence of defects. We find that the ground state of four +1/2 point defects is stable across a broad range of temperatures. We investigate the transition from disordered to ordered phase by decreasing the temperature and find a very smooth transition. We use fluctuations of the local directors to estimate the Frank elastic constant on the surface of a sphere and compare it to the planar case. We observe subdiffusive behavior in the mean square displacement of the defect cores and estimate their diffusion constants.

Phospholipid-based microemulsions suitable for use in foods

The preparation of nonaqueous microemulsions using food-acceptable components is reported. The effect of oil on the formation of microemulsions stabilized by lecithin (Epikuron 200) and containing propylene glycol as immiscible solvent was investigated. When the triglycerides were used as oil, three types of phase behavior were noted, namely, a two-phase cloudy region (occurring at low lecithin concentrations), a liquid crystalline (LC) phase (occurring at high surfactant and low oil concentrations), and a clear monophasic microemulsion region. The extent of this clear one-phase region was found to be dependent upon the molecular volume of the oil being solubilized. Large molecular volume oils, such as soybean and sunflower oils, produced a small microemulsion region, whereas the smallest molecular volume triglyceride, tributyrin, produced a large, clear monophasic region. Use of the ethyl ester, ethyl oleate, as oil produced a clear, monophasic region of a size comparable to that seen with tributyrin. Substitution of some of the propylene glycol with water greatly reduced the extent of the clear one-phase region and increased the extent of the liquid crystalline region. In contrast, ethanol enhanced the clear, monophasic region by decreasing the LC phase. Replacement of some of the lecithin with the micelle-forming nonionic surfactant Tween 80 to produce mixed lecithin/Tween 80 mixtures of weight ratios (Km) 1:2 and 1:3 did not significantly alter the phase behavior, although there was a marginal increase in the area of the two-phase, cloudy region of the phase diagram. The use of the lower phosphatidylcholine content lecithin, Epikuron 170, in place of Epikuron 200 resulted in a reduction in the LC region for all of the systems investigated. In conclusion, these studies show that it is possible to prepare one-phase, clear lecithin-based microemulsions over a wide range of compositions using components that are food-acceptable.

Size and molecular flexibility affect the binding of ellagitannins to bovine serum albumin

Binding to bovine serum albumin of monomeric (vescalagin and pedunculagin) and dimeric ellagitannins (roburin A, oenothein B, and gemin A) was investigated by isothermal titration calorimetry and fluorescence spectroscopy, which indicated two types of binding sites. Stronger and more specific sites exhibited affinity constants, K1, of 104–106 M–1 and stoichiometries, n1, of 2–13 and dominated at low tannin concentrations. Weaker and less-specific binding sites had K2 constants of 103–105 M–1 and stoichiometries, n2, of 16–30 and dominated at higher tannin concentrations. Binding to stronger sites appeared to be dependent on tannin flexibility and the presence of free galloyl groups. Positive entropies for all but gemin A indicated that hydrophobic interactions dominated during complexation. This was supported by an exponential relationship between the affinity, K1, and the modeled hydrophobic accessible surface area and by a linear relationship between K1 and the Stern–Volmer quenching constant, KSV.

Regimes of conformational transitions of a diblock polyampholyte

The conformational properties of symmetric flexible diblock polyampholytes are investigated by scaling theory and molecular dynamics simulations. The electrostatically driven coil-globule transition of a symmetric diblock polyampholyte is found to consist of three regimes identified with increasing electrostatic interaction strength. In the first (folding) regime the electrostatic attraction causes the chain to fold through the overlap of the two blocks, while each block is slightly stretched by self-repulsion. The second (weak association or scrambled egg) regime is the classical collapse of the chain into a globule dominated by the fluctuation-induced attractions between oppositely charged sections of the chain. The structure of the formed globule can be represented as a dense packing of the charged chain sections (electrostatic attraction blobs). The third (strong association or ion binding) regime starts with direct binding of oppositely charged monomers (dipole formation), followed by a cascade of multipole formation (quadrupole, hexapole, octupole, etc.), leading to multiplets analogous to those found in ionomers. The existence of the multiplet cascade has also been confirmed in the simulations of solutions of short polymers with only one single charge (either positive or negative) in the middle of each chain. We use scaling theory to estimate the average chain size and the electrostatic correlation length as functions of the chain length, strength of electrostatic interactions, charge fraction, and solvent quality. The theoretically predicted scaling laws of these conformational properties are in very good agreement with our simulation results.

Unrestricted Skyrme-tensor time-dependent Hartree-Fock model and its application to the nuclear response from spherical to triaxial nuclei

The nuclear time-dependent Hartree-Fock model formulated in three-dimensional space, based on the full standard Skyrme energy density functional complemented with the tensor force, is presented. Full self-consistency is achieved by the model. The application to the isovector giant dipole resonance is discussed in the linear limit, ranging from spherical nuclei (16O and 120Sn) to systems displaying axial or triaxial deformation (24Mg, 28Si, 178Os, 190W and 238U). Particular attention is paid to the spin-dependent terms from the central sector of the functional, recently included together with the tensor. They turn out to be capable of producing a qualitative change on the strength distribution in this channel. The effect on the deformation properties is also discussed. The quantitative effects on the linear response are small and, overall, the giant dipole energy remains unaffected. Calculations are compared to predictions from the (quasi)-particle random-phase approximation and experimental data where available, finding good agreement

High-temperature order–disorder transitions in the skutterudites CoGe1.5Q1.5 (Q=S, Te)

The temperature dependence of anion ordering in the skutterudites CoGe1.5Q1.5 (Q=S, Te) has been investigated by powder neutron diffraction. Both materials adopt a rhombohedral structure at room temperature (space group R-3 ) in which the anions are ordered trans to each other within Ge2Q2 rings. In CoGe1.5S1.5, anion ordering is preserved up to the melting point of 950 °C. However, rhombohedral CoGe1.5Te1.5 undergoes a phase transition at 610 °C involving a change to cubic symmetry (space group Im-3). In the high-temperature modification, there is a statistical distribution of anions over the available sites within the Ge2Te2 rings. The structural transition involves a reduction in the degree of distortion of the Ge2Te2 rings which progressively transform from a rhombus to a rectangular shape. The effect of this transition on the thermoelectric properties has been investigated.

Mixed-phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models

Increasing optical depth poleward of 45° is a robust response to warming in global climate models. Much of this cloud optical depth increase has been hypothesized to be due to transitions from ice-dominated to liquid-dominated mixed-phase cloud. In this study, the importance of liquid-ice partitioning for the optical depth feedback is quantified for 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. All models show a monotonic partitioning of ice and liquid as a function of temperature, but the temperature at which ice and liquid are equally mixed (the glaciation temperature) varies by as much as 40 K across models. Models that have a higher glaciation temperature are found to have a smaller climatological liquid water path (LWP) and condensed water path and experience a larger increase in LWP as the climate warms. The ice-liquid partitioning curve of each model may be used to calculate the response of LWP to warming. It is found that the repartitioning between ice and liquid in a warming climate contributes at least 20% to 80% of the increase in LWP as the climate warms, depending on model. Intermodel differences in the climatological partitioning between ice and liquid are estimated to contribute at least 20% to the intermodel spread in the high-latitude LWP response in the mixed-phase region poleward of 45°S. It is hypothesized that a more thorough evaluation and constraint of global climate model mixed-phase cloud parameterizations and validation of the total condensate and ice-liquid apportionment against observations will yield a substantial reduction in model uncertainty in the high-latitude cloud response to warming.

Advanced source apportionment of size-resolved trace elements at multiple sites in London during winter

Trace element measurements in PM10–2.5, PM2.5–1.0 and PM1.0–0.3 aerosol were performed with 2 h time resolution at kerbside, urban background and rural sites during the ClearfLo winter 2012 campaign in London. The environment-dependent variability of emissions was characterized using the Multilinear Engine implementation of the positive matrix factorization model, conducted on data sets comprising all three sites but segregated by size. Combining the sites enabled separation of sources with high temporal covariance but significant spatial variability. Separation of sizes improved source resolution by preventing sources occurring in only a single size fraction from having too small a contribution for the model to resolve. Anchor profiles were retrieved internally by analysing data subsets, and these profiles were used in the analyses of the complete data sets of all sites for enhanced source apportionment. A total of nine different factors were resolved (notable elements in brackets): in PM10–2.5, brake wear (Cu, Zr, Sb, Ba), other traffic-related (Fe), resuspended dust (Si, Ca), sea/road salt (Cl), aged sea salt (Na, Mg) and industrial (Cr, Ni); in PM2.5–1.0, brake wear, other traffic-related, resuspended dust, sea/road salt, aged sea salt and S-rich (S); and in PM1.0–0.3, traffic-related (Fe, Cu, Zr, Sb, Ba), resuspended dust, sea/road salt, aged sea salt, reacted Cl (Cl), S-rich and solid fuel (K, Pb). Human activities enhance the kerb-to-rural concentration gradients of coarse aged sea salt, typically considered to have a natural source, by 1.7–2.2. These site-dependent concentration differences reflect the effect of local resuspension processes in London. The anthropogenically influenced factors traffic (brake wear and other traffic-related processes), dust and sea/road salt provide further kerb-to-rural concentration enhancements by direct source emissions by a factor of 3.5–12.7. The traffic and dust factors are mainly emitted in PM10–2.5 and show strong diurnal variations with concentrations up to 4 times higher during rush hour than during night-time. Regionally influenced S-rich and solid fuel factors, occurring primarily in PM1.0–0.3, have negligible resuspension influences, and concentrations are similar throughout the day and across the regions.

Aligned platinum nanowire networks from surface-oriented lipid cubic phase templates

Mesoporous metal structures featuring a bicontinuous cubic morphology have a wide range of potential applications and novel opto-electronic properties, often orientation-dependent. We describe the production of nanostructured metal films 1–2 microns thick featuring 3D-periodic ‘single diamond’ morphology that show high out-of-plane alignment, with the (111) plane oriented parallel to the substrate. These are produced by electrodeposition of platinum through a lipid cubic phase (QII) template. Further investigation into the mechanism for the orientation revealed the surprising result that the QII template, which is tens of microns thick, is polydomain with no overall orientation. When thicker platinum films are grown, they also show increased orientational disorder. These results suggest that polydomain QII samples display a region of uniaxial orientation at the lipid/substrate interface up to approximately 2.8 ± 0.3 μm away from the solid surface. Our approach gives previously unavailable information on the arrangement of cubic phases at solid interfaces, which is important for many applications of QII phases. Most significantly, we have produced a previously unreported class of oriented nanomaterial, with potential applications including metamaterials and lithographic masks.

Interim analyses and sequential designs in phase III studies

Recruitment of patients to a clinical trial usually occurs over a period of time, resulting in the steady accumulation of data throughout the trial's duration. Yet, according to traditional statistical methods, the sample size of the trial should be determined in advance, and data collected on all subjects before analysis proceeds. For ethical and economic reasons, the technique of sequential testing has been developed to enable the examination of data at a series of interim analyses. The aim is to stop recruitment to the study as soon as there is sufficient evidence to reach a firm conclusion. In this paper we present the advantages and disadvantages of conducting interim analyses in phase III clinical trials, together with the key steps to enable the successful implementation of sequential methods in this setting. Examples are given of completed trials, which have been carried out sequentially, and references to relevant literature and software are provided.