Some results from an intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Some climatological information from 14 atmospheric general circulation models is presented and compared in order to assess the ability of a broad group of models to simulate current climate. The quantities considered are cross sections of temperature, zonal wind, and meridional stream function together with latitudinal distributions of mean sea level pressure and precipitation rate. The nature of the deficiencies in the simulated climates that are common to all models and those which differ among models is investigated; the general improvement in the ability of models to simulate certain aspects of the climate is shown; consideration is given to the effect of increasing resolution on simulated climate; and approaches to understanding and reducing model deficiencies are discussed. The information presented here is a subset of a more voluminous compilation which is available in report form (Boer et al., 1991). This report contains essentially the same text, but results from all 14 models are presented together with additional results in the form of geographical distributions of surface variables and certain difference statistics.

An intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Climatological information from fourteen atmospheric general circulation models is presented and compared in order to assess the ability of a broad group of models to simulate current climate. The quantities considered are cross sections of temperature, zonal wind and meridional stream function together with latitudinal distributions of mean sea-level pressure and precipitation rate. The nature of the deficiencies in the simulated climates that are common to all models and those which differ among models is investigated, general improvement in the ability of models to simulate certain aspects of the climate is shown, consideration is given to the effect of increasing resolution on simulated climate and approaches to the understanding and reduction of model deficiencies are discussed.

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979-1988 (Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject)

As a part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), the behaviour of 15 general circulation models has been analysed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking. In accordance with the established AMIP procedure, the 10-year model integrations were performed using prescribed, time-evolving monthly mean observed SSTs spanning the period January 1979–December 1988. Atmospheric observational data (ECMWF analyses) over the same period have been also used to verify the models results. The models involved in this comparison represent a wide spectrum of model complexity, with different horizontal and vertical resolution, numerical techniques and physical parametrizations, and exhibit large differences in blocking behaviour. Nevertheless, a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks. The problem of the possible relationship between model blocking and model systematic errors has also been assessed, although without resorting to ad-hoc numerical experimentation it is impossible to relate with certainty particular model deficiencies in representing blocking to precise parts of the model formulation.

Studying economics reduces overexploitation in a common resource experiment

This paper studies the economic behavior of agents, who make decisions regarding the sustainability of Common-Pool Resources (CPR). For this purpose, economic experiments are applied to simulate the yield of a CPR, taking into account the influence of economics training on the learning process of individuals, regarding their decisions for sustainability. Based on a non-cooperative game with simultaneous choices, the results of experiments show that after several rounds the existence of economics knowledge reflects a better learning process for making decisions regarding sustainability of CPR.

The role of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation in the Hadley Centre model

The role of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is explored using two configurations of the Hadley Centre atmospheric model (AGCM), GA3.0, which differ only in F, a parameter controlling convective entrainment and detrainment. Increasing F considerably improves deficient MJO-like variability in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, but variability in and propagation through the Maritime Continent remains weak. By coupling GA3.0 in the tropical Indo-Pacific to a boundary-layer ocean model, KPP, and employing climatological temperature corrections, well resolved air–sea interactions are simulated with limited alterations to the mean state. At default F, when GA3.0 has a poor MJO, coupling produces a stronger MJO with some eastward propagation, although both aspects remain deficient. These results agree with previous sensitivity studies using AGCMs with poor variability. At higher F, coupling does not affect MJO amplitude but enhances propagation through the Maritime Continent, resulting in an MJO that resembles observations. A sensitivity experiment with coupling in only the Indian Ocean reverses these improvements, suggesting coupling in the Maritime Continent and West Pacific is critical for propagation. We hypothesise that for AGCMs with a poor MJO, coupling provides a “crutch” to artificially augment MJO-like activity through high-frequency SST anomalies. In related experiments, we employ the KPP framework to analyse the impact of air–sea interactions in the fully coupled GA3.0, which at default F shows a similar MJO to uncoupled GA3.0. This is due to compensating effects: an improvement from coupling and a degradation from mean-state errors. Future studies on the role of coupling should carefully separate these effects.

Simulated changes in the relationship between tropical ocean temperatures and the western African monsoon during the mid-Holocene

Results from nine coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations have been used to investigate changes in the relationship between the variability of monsoon precipitation over western Africa and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between the mid-Holocene and the present day. Although the influence of tropical SSTs on the African monsoon is generally overestimated in the control simulations, the models reproduce aspects of the observed modes of variability. Thus, most models reproduce the observed negative correlation between western Sahelian precipitation and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, and many of them capture the positive correlation between SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Atlantic and precipitation over the Guinea coastal region. Although the response of individual model to the change in orbital forcing between 6 ka and present differs somewhat, eight of the models show that the strength of the teleconnection between SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific and Sahelian precipitation is weaker in the mid-Holocene. Some of the models imply that this weakening was associated with a shift towards longer time periods (from 3–5 years in the control simulations toward 4–10 years in the mid-Holocene simulations). The simulated reduction in the teleconnection between eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and Sahelian precipitation appears to be primarily related to a reduction in the atmospheric circulation bridge between the Pacific and West Africa but, depending on the model, other mechanisms such as increased importance of other modes of tropical ocean variability or increased local recycling of monsoonal precipitation can also play a role.

A simulation of the last glacial maximum climate using the NCAR-CCSM

The National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) is used in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21,000 years ago) climate. In the tropics, the simulation shows a moderate cooling of 3 °C over land and 2 °C in the ocean in zonal average. This cooling is about 1 °C cooler than the CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but consistent with recent estimates of both land and sea surface temperature changes. Subtropical waters are cooled by 2–2.5 °C, also in agreement with recent estimates. The simulated oceanic thermohaline circulation at the LGM is not only shallower but also weaker than the modern with a migration of deep-water formation site in the North Atlantic as suggested by the paleoceanographic evidences. The simulated northward flow of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is enhanced. These deep circulation changes are attributable to the increased surface density flux in the Southern Ocean caused by sea-ice expansion at the LGM. Both the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are intensified due to the overall increase of wind stress over the subtropical oceans. The intensified zonal wind stress and southward shift of its maximum in the Southern Ocean effectively enhances the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) by more than 50%. Simulated SSTs are lowered by up to 8 °C in the midlatitudes. Simulated conditions in the North Atlantic are warmer and with less sea-ice than indicated by CLIMAP again, in agreement with more recent estimates. The increased meridional SST gradient at the LGM results in an enhanced Hadley Circulation and increased midlatitude storm track precipitation. The increased baroclinic storm activity also intensifies the meridional atmospheric heat transport. A sensitivity experiment shows that about half of the simulated tropical cooling at the LGM originates from reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Global snow mass measurements and the effect of stratigraphic detail on inversion of microwave brightness temperatures

Snow provides large seasonal storage of freshwater, and information about the distribution of snow mass as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is important for hydrological planning and detecting climate change impacts. Large regional disagreements remain between estimates from reanalyses, remote sensing and modelling. Assimilating passive microwave information improves SWE estimates in many regions but the assimilation must account for how microwave scattering depends on snow stratigraphy. Physical snow models can estimate snow stratigraphy, but users must consider the computational expense of model complexity versus acceptable errors. Using data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cold Land Processes Experiment (NASA CLPX) and the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) microwave emission model of layered snowpacks, it is shown that simulations of the brightness temperature difference between 19 GHz and 37 GHz vertically polarised microwaves are consistent with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals once known stratigraphic information is used. Simulated brightness temperature differences for an individual snow profile depend on the provided stratigraphic detail. Relative to a profile defined at the 10 cm resolution of density and temperature measurements, the error introduced by simplification to a single layer of average properties increases approximately linearly with snow mass. If this brightness temperature error is converted into SWE using a traditional retrieval method then it is equivalent to ±13 mm SWE (7% of total) at a depth of 100 cm. This error is reduced to ±5.6 mm SWE (3 % of total) for a two-layer model.

Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations

Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (308S–308N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ;3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warmpool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.

Bollène-2002 experiment: radar quantitative precipitation estimation in the Cévennes–Vivarais region, France

The Bollène-2002 Experiment was aimed at developing the use of a radar volume-scanning strategy for conducting radar rainfall estimations in the mountainous regions of France. A developmental radar processing system, called Traitements Régionalisés et Adaptatifs de Données Radar pour l’Hydrologie (Regionalized and Adaptive Radar Data Processing for Hydrological Applications), has been built and several algorithms were specifically produced as part of this project. These algorithms include 1) a clutter identification technique based on the pulse-to-pulse variability of reflectivity Z for noncoherent radar, 2) a coupled procedure for determining a rain partition between convective and widespread rainfall R and the associated normalized vertical profiles of reflectivity, and 3) a method for calculating reflectivity at ground level from reflectivities measured aloft. Several radar processing strategies, including nonadaptive, time-adaptive, and space–time-adaptive variants, have been implemented to assess the performance of these new algorithms. Reference rainfall data were derived from a careful analysis of rain gauge datasets furnished by the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory. The assessment criteria for five intense and long-lasting Mediterranean rain events have proven that good quantitative precipitation estimates can be obtained from radar data alone within 100-km range by using well-sited, well-maintained radar systems and sophisticated, physically based data-processing systems. The basic requirements entail performing accurate electronic calibration and stability verification, determining the radar detection domain, achieving efficient clutter elimination, and capturing the vertical structure(s) of reflectivity for the target event. Radar performance was shown to depend on type of rainfall, with better results obtained with deep convective rain systems (Nash coefficients of roughly 0.90 for point radar–rain gauge comparisons at the event time step), as opposed to shallow convective and frontal rain systems (Nash coefficients in the 0.6–0.8 range). In comparison with time-adaptive strategies, the space–time-adaptive strategy yields a very significant reduction in the radar–rain gauge bias while the level of scatter remains basically unchanged. Because the Z–R relationships have not been optimized in this study, results are attributed to an improved processing of spatial variations in the vertical profile of reflectivity. The two main recommendations for future work consist of adapting the rain separation method for radar network operations and documenting Z–R relationships conditional on rainfall type.

Intercomparison of simulated global vegetation distribution in response to 6 kyr BP orbital forcing

The response of ten atmospheric general circulation models to orbital forcing at 6 kyr BP has been investigated using the BIOME model, which predicts equilibrium vegetation distribution, as a diagnostic. Several common features emerge: (a) reduced tropical rain forest as a consequence of increased aridity in the equatorial zone, (b) expansion of moisture-demanding vegetation in the Old World subtropics as a consequence of the expansion of the Afro–Asian monsoon, (c) an increase in warm grass/shrub in the Northern Hemisphere continental interiors in response to warming and enhanced aridity, and (d) a northward shift in the tundra–forest boundary in response to a warmer growing season at high northern latitudes. These broadscale features are consistent from model to model, but there are differences in their expression at a regional scale. Vegetation changes associated with monsoon enhancement and high-latitude summer warming are consistent with palaeoenvironmental observations, but the simulated shifts in vegetation belts are too small in both cases. Vegetation changes due to warmer and more arid conditions in the midcontinents of the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with palaeoenvironmental data from North America, but data from Eurasia suggests conditions were wetter at 6 kyr BP than today. The models show quantitatively similar vegetation changes in the intertropical zone, and in the northern and southern extratropics. The small differences among models in the magnitude of the global vegetation response are not related to differences in global or zonal climate averages, but reflect differences in simulated regional features. Regional-scale analyses will therefore be necessary to identify the underlying causes of such differences among models.

Simulated climate and biomes of Africa during the Late Quaternary: comparison with pollen and lake status data

New compilations of African pollen and lake data are compared with climate (CCM1, NCAR, Boulder) and vegetation (BIOME 1.2, GSG, Lund) simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and early to mid-Holocene (EMH). The simulated LGM climate was ca 4°C colder and drier than present, with maximum reduction in precipitation in semi-arid regions. Biome simulations show lowering of montane vegetation belts and expansion of southern xerophytic associations, but no change in the distribution of deserts and tropical rain forests. The lakes show LGM conditions similar or drier than present throughout northern and tropical Africa. Pollen data indicate lowering of montane vegetation belts, the stability of the Sahara, and a reduction of rain forest. The paleoenvironmental data are consistent with the simulated changes in temperature and moisture budgets, although they suggest the climate model underestimates equatorial aridity. EMH simulations show temperatures slightly less than present and increased monsoonal precipitation in the eastern Sahara and East Africa. Biome simulations show an upward shift of montane vegetation belts, fragmentation of xerophytic vegetation in southern Africa, and a major northward shift of the southern margin of the eastern Sahara. The lakes indicate conditions wetter than present across northern Africa. Pollen data show an upward shift of the montane forests, the northward shift of the southern margin of the Sahara, and a major extension of tropical rain forest. The lake and pollen data confirm monsoon expansion in eastern Africa, but the climate model fails to simulate the wet conditions in western Africa.

Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3~data

A method has been developed to estimate Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) and Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over land surfaces using simulated Sentinel-3 data. The method uses inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model, and includes a general physical model of angular surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values for a number of view angles and wavelengths with those provided by the physical model. A method of estimating AOD using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3 and the additional aerosol properties. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground based sun-photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.

The three-dimensional morphology of simulated and observed convective storms over southern England

A set of high-resolution radar observations of convective storms has been collected to evaluate such storms in the UK Met Office Unified Model during the DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms). The 3-GHz Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar was set up with a scan-scheduling algorithm to automatically track convective storms identified in real-time from the operational rainfall radar network. More than 1,000 storm observations gathered over fifteen days in 2011 and 2012 are used to evaluate the model under various synoptic conditions supporting convection. In terms of the detailed three-dimensional morphology, storms in the 1500-m grid-length simulations are shown to produce horizontal structures a factor 1.5–2 wider compared to radar observations. A set of nested model runs at grid lengths down to 100m show that the models converge in terms of storm width, but the storm structures in the simulations with the smallest grid lengths are too narrow and too intense compared to the radar observations. The modelled storms were surrounded by a region of drizzle without ice reflectivities above 0 dBZ aloft, which was related to the dominance of ice crystals and was improved by allowing only aggregates as an ice particle habit. Simulations with graupel outperformed the standard configuration for heavy-rain profiles, but the storm structures were a factor 2 too wide and the convective cores 2 km too deep.