Un piano territoriale per la riduzione della concentrazione di CO2 nell'atmosfera e la produzione energetica da fonti rinnovabili per mezzo della filiera delle biomasse

Il progetto propone uno studio per verificare la fattibilita' di un piano territoriale (ideato per il bacino del Po ma di fatto estendibile a tutti i bacini fluviali) per la creazione di una filiera di colture bioenergetiche (biomasse) che, trasportate per mezzo della navigazione fluviale (uno dei mezzi di trasporto a minore emissione di CO2), alimentino una o piu' centrali a nuova tecnologia che associno alla produzione di calore (teleriscaldamento e raffreddamento) e di energia la separazione dei fumi. La CO2 catturata dalla crescita delle biomasse e recuperata dalla combustione, puo' quindi essere segregata nel sottosuolo di aree costiere subsidenti contrastando il fenomeno dell’abbassamento del suolo. Ricavando benefici in tutti i passaggi di attuazione del piano territoriale (lancio dell'agricoltura bioenergetica, rilancio della navigazione a corrente libera, avvio di una economia legata alla logistica del trasporto e dello stoccaggio delle biomasse, generazione di energia pulita, lotta alla subsidenza) il progetto, di fatto, consente di catturare ingenti quantitativi di CO2 dall'atmosfera e di segregarli nel sottosuolo, riducendo l'effetto serra. Nel corso del Dottorato e' stata sviluppata una metodologia di valutazione della sostenibilita' economica ed ambientale del progetto ad un bacino fluviale, che consta di una modulistica di raccolta dei dati di base e di una procedura informatizzata di analisi.

Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Water, sediment and soil physicochemical interactions in freshwater, brackish and saline systems

The physicochemical interactions between water, sediment and soil deeply influence the formation and development of the ecosystem. In this research, different freshwater, brackish and saline subaqueous environments of Northern Italy were chosen as study area to investigate the physicochemical processes which occur at the interface between water and sediments, as well as the effects of soil submergence on ecosystem development. In the freshwater system of the Reno river basin, the main purpose was to define the heavy metals hazard in water and sediments of natural and artificial water courses. Heavy metals partitioning and speciation allowed to assess the environmental risk linked to the critical action of dredging canal sediments, for the maintenance of the hydraulic safety of plain lands. In addition, some bioremediation techniques were experimented for protecting sediments from heavy metals contamination, and for giving an answer to the problem of sediments management. In the brackish system of S. Vitale park, the development of hydromorphic and subaqueous soils was investigated. The study of soil profiles highlighted the presence of a soil continuum among pedons subjected to different saturation degrees. This investigation allowed to the identification of both morphological and physicochemical indicators, which characterize the formation of subaqueous soils and describe the soil hydromorphism in transitional soil systems. In the saline system of Grado lagoon, an ecosystem approach was used to define the role of water oscillation in soil characterization and plants colonization. This study highlighted the close relationship and the mutual influence of soil submergence and aeration, tide oscillation and vegetation cover, on the soil development. In view of climate change, this study contribute to understand and suppose how soil and landscape could evolve. However, a complete evaluation of hydromorphic soil functionality will be achieved only involving physiological and biochemical expertise in these kind of studies.

Livelihoods in Transition: Changing Land Use Strategies and Ecological Implications in a Post Soviet Setting (Kyrgyzstan)

The sudden independence of Kyrgyzstan from the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a total rupture of industrial and agricultural production. Based on empirical data, this study seeks to identify key land use transformation processes since the late 1980s, their impact on people's livelihoods and the implication for natural resources in the communes of Tosh Bulak and Saz, located in the Sokuluk River Basin on the northern slope of the Kyrgyz Range. Using the concept of the sustainable livelihood approach as an analytical framework, three different livelihood strategies were identified: (1) An accumulation strategy applied by wealthy households where renting and/or buying of land is a key element; they are the only household category capable of venturing into rain fed agriculture. (2) A preserving strategy involving mainly intermediate households who are not able to buy or rent additional agricultural land; very often they are forced to return their land to the commune or sell it to wealthier households. (3) A coping strategy including mainly poor households consisting of elderly pensioners or headed by single mothers; due to their limited labour and economic power, agricultural production is very low and hardly covers subsistence needs; pensions and social allowances form the backbone of these livelihoods. Ecological assessments have shown that the forage productivity of remote high mountain pastures has increased from 5 to 22 per cent since 1978. At the same time forage productivity on pre-mountain and mountain pastures close to villages has generally decreased from 1 to 34 per cent. It seems that the main avenues for livelihoods to increase their wealth are to be found in the agricultural sector by controlling more and mainly irrigated land as well as by increasing livestock. The losers in this process are thus those households unable to keep or exploit their arable land or to benefit from new agricultural land. Ensuring access to land for the poor is therefore imperative in order to combat rural poverty and socio-economic disparities in rural Kyrgyzstan.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

A REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER AVAILABILITY AS CONSTRAINED BY LOCAL HYDROGEOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITS TO STREAMFLOW DEPLETION

Groundwater pumping from aquifers in hydraulic connection with nearby streams is known to cause adverse impacts by decreasing flows to levels below those necessary to maintain aquatic ecosystems. The recent passage of the Great Lakes--St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact has brought attention to this issue in the Great Lakes region. In particular, the legislation requires the Great Lakes states to enact measures for limiting water withdrawals that can cause adverse ecosystem impacts. This study explores how both hydrogeologic and environmental flow limitations constrain groundwater availability in the Great Lakes Basin. A methodology for calculating maximum allowable pumping rates is presented. Groundwater availability across the basin is shown to be constrained by a combination of hydrogeologic yield and environmental flow limitations varying over both local and regional scales. The results are sensitive to factors such as pumping time and streamflow depletion limits as well as streambed conductance. Understanding how these restrictions constrain groundwater usage and which hydrogeologic characteristics and spatial variables have the most influence on potential streamflow depletions has important water resources policy and management implications.