967 resultados para SPANNING PROBABILITY


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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

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RESUMO: O envelhecimento demográfico tem vindo a acentuar-se nas últimas décadas. É expectável um aumento mais acentuado no número de pessoas com mais de 80 anos, o que importará maiores custos médicos, mais suporte familiar e comunitário, maior probabilidade de cuidados de longa duração devido à prevalência de doenças crónicas. Conduzindo a uma maior procura de apoios formais e informais. A preocupação com aqueles que atingem idades avançadas tem vindo a suscitar inquietação face à urgência de necessidades de suporte, sentidas por familiares, amigos e vizinhos. A questão central que orientou este estudo diz respeito aos familiares cuidadores ou gestores de cuidados do seu familiar idoso dependente e ao idoso dependente. Procurei identificar quais as dificuldades sentidas e as estratégias desenvolvidas pela família cuidadora ou gestora dos cuidados prestados ao idoso dependente, descrever e caracterizar a dependência destes idosos. É um estudo transversal, exploratório, descritivo, de abordagem quantitativa e qualitativa. Apliquei um questionário a 25 familiares cuidadores ou gestores dos cuidados a idosos dependentes, internados nos serviços de medicina e cirurgia de um hospital privado, Hospital CUF Descobertas, possuindo previamente alguma dependência. Dos dados obtidos ressalta que as principais dificuldades sentidas pelos familiares cuidadores ou gestores dos cuidados são essencialmente na gestão do tempo e a saúde do cuidador. Estratégias mais desenvolvidas foram o recurso a empregada doméstica e a outros familiares. Posso Concluir que há uma tendência preferencial por parte da família, na complementaridade de apoios informais e formais para prestar os cuidados ao idoso dependente no seio da família.------------ ABSTRACT: Demographic aging has risen progressively over the past decades. The number of people over the age of 80 years old is expected to increase considerably and surely result in the rise of medical costs, the growing need for additional community and family support, higher probability of long-term medical care due to the increased risk of chronic disease and the seeking of help regarding formal and informal support. The concern with persons that attain advanced age has brought about a certain degree of uneasiness regarding the urgency of the need of support systems felt by family members, friends, neighbours. The main topic that has steered this study pertains to the family caregivers or the care managers of dependant elderly relatives and dependant elderly persons. I endeavoured to identify encountered difficulties and the strategies undertaken by family caregivers or care managers in regard to the elderly dependant, to describe and characterize the nature of the dependency of these elderly persons. Furthermore, this study could be defined as being wide-reaching, exploratory and descriptive, by means of a qualitative and quantitative approach. I utilized a questionnaire that involved 25 family caregivers and care managers of dependant elderly (hospitalized in medical or surgery wards of private hospital, CUF Descobertas Hospital and suffering from some type of dependency). Conclusions: The main difficulties felt by family caregivers or care managers are primarily related to time management and the health of the caregiver. Let it be mentioned that more developed strategies were adopted such as the employment/recruitment of a housemaid and the help of other relatives. In sum, it can be concluded that there is a preferential tendency by families in seeking the complementarity of informal and formal support in order to provide the necessary care to the dependent elderly in the family environment.

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SUMMARY Cryptococcosis caused by Cryptococcus neoformans is the second most common fungal opportunistic pathogen and a lifethreatening infection with serious clinical manifestations especially in HIV/AIDS and other immunocompromised patients. In Nigeria, HIV/AIDS infection has reached an alarming level. Despite this, information on the presence of this fungus in clinical and environmental samples is very scanty in Nigeria and many other parts of Africa. We set out to evaluate the presence of Cryptococcus neoformans or C. gattii in pigeon droppings obtained from Southeastern Nigeria. One hundred and seventy-seven samples of pigeon droppings from six sample types were collected. The area covered comprised of ten cities and other locations spanning across five States in Nigeria. Using established techniques, Cryptococcus neoformans was isolated from 39 of the 177 (22.0%) samples overall. No C. gattiiwas isolated. Most of the isolates (32.4%) were recovered from dovecotes (11 of 34) followed closely by samples taken from markets (31.8%; seven of 22) and least from the church (4.0%; one of 25). The highest isolation rate (38.9%) was found in samples from Enugu-Ezike(seven of 23) while the least came from Afikpoand the other locations each with 9.1% isolation rate. This is the first large-scale screening of Cryptococcus neoformans from pigeon droppings in Nigeria. The ecological and epidemiological significance of these findings are discussed.

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Os sistemas autónomos trazem como mais valia aos cenários de busca e salvamento a possibilidade de minimizar a presença de Humanos em situações de perigo e a capacidade de aceder a locais de difícil acesso. Na dissertação propõe-se endereçar novos métodos para perceção e navegação de veículos aéreos não tripulados (UAV), tendo como foco principal o planeamento de trajetórias e deteção de obstáculos. No que respeita à perceção foi desenvolvido um método para gerar clusters tendo por base os voxels gerados pelo Octomap. Na área de navegação, foram desenvolvidos dois novos métodos de planeamento de trajetórias, GPRM (Grid Probabilistic Roadmap) e PPRM (Particle Probabilistic Roadmap), que tem como método base para o seu desenvolvimento o PRM. O primeiro método desenvolvido, GPRM, espalha as partículas numa grid pré-definida, construindo posteriormente o roadmap na área determinada pela grid e com isto estima o trajeto mais curto até ao ponto destino. O segundo método desenvolvido, PPRM, espalha as partículas pelo cenário de aplicação, gera o roadmap considerando o mapa total e atribui uma probabilidade que irá permitir definir a trajetória otimizada. Para analisar a performance de cada método em comparação com o PRM, efetua-se a sua avaliação em três cenários distintos com recurso ao simulador MORSE.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Thick blood films and malaria indirect fluorescent antibody test (P. falciparum and P. vivax) were done in four different regions in Amazonas. There was a very low prevalence of parasites anã the antibody rates suggest a small amount of transmission and that P. vivax was the predominant parasite. The calculation of probability of being infected per year was about 8% in Tefé. Coari, Colonia Fernanão Costa and Labrea and 0.8% in Anori.

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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive, incurable tumors characterized by extensive diffuse invasion of the normal brain parenchyma. Novel therapies at best prolong survival; their costs are formidable and benefit is marginal. Economic restrictions thus require knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of treatments. Here, we show the cost-effectiveness of enhanced resections in malignant glioma surgery using a well-characterized tool for intraoperative tumor visualization, 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided neurosurgery compared with white-light surgery in adult patients with newly diagnosed high-grade glioma, adopting the perspective of the Portuguese National Health Service. METHODS: We used a Markov model (cohort simulation). Transition probabilities were estimated with the use of data from 1 randomized clinical trial and 1 noninterventional prospective study. Utility values and resource use were obtained from published literature and expert opinion. Unit costs were taken from official Portuguese reimbursement lists (2012 values). The health outcomes considered were quality-adjusted life-years, lifeyears, and progression-free life-years. Extensive 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are below €10 000 in all evaluated outcomes, being around €9100 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, €6700 per life-year gained, and €8800 per progression-free life-year gained. The probability of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery cost-effectiveness at a threshold of €20000 is 96.0% for quality-adjusted life-year, 99.6% for life-year, and 98.8% for progression-free life-year. CONCLUSION: 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery appears to be cost-effective in newly diagnosed high-grade gliomas compared with white-light surgery. This example demonstrates cost-effectiveness analyses for malignant glioma surgery to be feasible on the basis of existing data.

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RESUMO - O aumento da prevalência da diabetes e a baixa adesão ao seu tratamento estão associados a um mau controlo metabólico, desenvolvimento de complicações, aumento dos custos económicos e ineficiência do sistema de saúde. De acordo com o modelo de auto-regulação, o estudo das representações da doença permite predizer os comportamentos dos doentes face a esta patologia. O objectivo do estudo é verificar a existência de relação entre a forma como os diabéticos tipo 2 percepcionam a sua doença, de acordo com o modelo de auto-regulação de Leventhal e colaboradores, e a adesão às actividades de auto-cuidado da diabetes. Consiste num estudo observacional, descritivo, analítico, do tipo transversal, a desenvolver em Cuidados de Saúde Primários. A amostra é constituída por 339 indivíduos diabéticos, de ambos os sexos, com idade igual ou superior a 20 anos e com diagnóstico de diabetes tipo 2 há mais de 6 meses. Trata-se de uma amostra probabilística, aleatória simples, seleccionada numa Unidade de Saúde Familiar (USF). A recolha de dados é realizada através do preenchimento de uma ficha de caracterização socio-demográfica e clínica, a partir do processo clínico electrónico, e através da aplicação de dois questionários de auto-preenchimento. Os resultados são analisados através do Statistical Program for Social Sciences (SPSS) – versão 17.0.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES:Recently, three novel non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants received approval for reimbursement in Portugal for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). It is therefore important to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of these new oral anticoagulants in Portuguese AF patients. METHODS: A Markov model was used to analyze disease progression over a lifetime horizon. Relative efficacy data for stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic), bleeding (intracranial, other major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding), myocardial infarction and treatment discontinuation were obtained by pairwise indirect comparisons between apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban using warfarin as a common comparator. Data on resource use were obtained from the database of diagnosis-related groups and an expert panel. Model outputs included life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), direct healthcare costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS:Apixaban provided the most life years gained and QALYs. The ICERs of apixaban compared to warfarin and dabigatran were €5529/QALY and €9163/QALY, respectively. Apixaban was dominant over rivaroxaban (greater health gains and lower costs). The results were robust over a wide range of inputs in sensitivity analyses. Apixaban had a 70% probability of being cost-effective (at a threshold of €20 000/QALY) compared to all the other therapeutic options. CONCLUSIONS:Apixaban is a cost-effective alternative to warfarin and dabigatran and is dominant over rivaroxaban in AF patients from the perspective of the Portuguese national healthcare system. These conclusions are based on indirect comparisons, but despite this limitation, the information is useful for healthcare decision-makers.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics