978 resultados para Risk-Neutral Probability
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This paper is on offshore wind energy conversion systems installed on the deep water and equipped with back-to-back neutral point clamped full-power converter, permanent magnet synchronous generator with an AC link. The model for the drive train is a five-mass model which incorporates the dynamic of the structure and the tower in order to emulate the effect of the moving surface. A three-level converter and a four-level converter are the two options with a fractional-order control strategy considered to equip the conversion system. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the quality of the energy injected into the electric grid. Finally, conclusions are presented. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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OBJECTIVE To estimate the incidence and identify risk factors for intimate partner violence during postpartum.METHODS This prospective cohort study was conducted with women, aged between 18-49 years, enrolled in the Brazilian Family Health Strategy in Recife, Northeastern Brazil, between 2005 and 2006. Of the 1.057 women interviewed during pregnancy and postpartum, 539 women, who did not report violence before or during pregnancy, were evaluated. A theoretical-conceptual framework was built with three levels of factors hierarchically ordered: women’s and partners’ sociodemografic and behavioral characteristics, and relationship dynamics. Incidence and risk factors of intimate partner violence were estimated by Poisson Regression.RESULTS The incidence of violence during postpartum was 9.3% (95%CI 7.0;12.0). Isolated psychological violence was the most common (4.3%; 95%CI 2.8;6.4). The overlapping of psychological with physical violence occurred at 3.3% (95%CI 2.0;5.3) and with physical and/or sexual in almost 2.0% (95%CI 0.8;3.0) of cases. The risk of partner violence during postpartum was increased for women with a low level of education (RR = 2.6; 95%CI 1.3;5.4), without own income (RR = 1.7; 95%CI 1.0;2.9) and those who perpetrated physical violence against their partner without being assaulted first (RR = 2.0; 95%CI 1.2;3.4), had a very controlling partner (RR = 2.5; 95%CI 1.1;5.8), and had frequent fights with their partner (RR = 1.7; 95%CI 1.0;2.9).CONCLUSIONS The high incidence of intimate partner violence during postpartum and its association with aspects of the relationship’s quality between the couple, demonstrated the need for public policies that promote conflict mediation and enable forms of empowerment for women to address the cycle of violence.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze if differences according to gender exists in the association between tooth loss and obesity among older adults.METHODS We analyzed data on 1,704 older adults (60 years and over) from the baseline of a prospective cohort study conducted in Florianopolis, SC, Southern Brazil. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the association between tooth loss and general and central obesity after adjustment for confounders (age, gender, skin color, educational attainment, income, smoking, physical activity, use of dentures, hypertension, and diabetes). Linear regressions were also assessed with body mass index and waist circumference as continuous outcomes. Interaction between gender and tooth loss was further assessed.RESULTS Overall mean body mass index was 28.0 kg/m2. Mean waist circumference was 96.8 cm for males and 92.6 cm for females. Increasing tooth loss was positively associated with increased body mass index and waist circumference after adjustment for confounders. Edentates had 1.4 (95%CI 1.1;1.9) times higher odds of being centrally obese than individuals with a higher number of teeth; however, the association lost significance after adjustment for confounders. In comparison with edentate males, edentate females presented a twofold higher adjusted prevalence of general and central obesity. In the joint effects model, edentate females had a 3.8 (95%CI 2.2;6.6) times higher odds to be centrally obese in comparison with males with more than 10 teeth present in both the arches. Similarly, females with less than 10 teeth in at least one arch had a 2.7 (95%CI 1.6;4.4) times higher odds ratio of having central obesity in comparison with males with more than 10 teeth present in both the arches.CONCLUSIONS Central obesity was more prevalent than general obesity among the older adults. We did not observe any association between general obesity and tooth loss. The association between central obesity and tooth loss depends on gender – females with tooth loss had greater probability of being obese.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the prevalence of bullying and its associated factors in Brazilian adolescents.METHODS Data were used from a population-based household survey conducted by the Urban Health Observatory (OSUBH) utilizing probability sampling in three stages: census tracts, residences, and individuals. The survey included 598 adolescents (14-17 years old) who responded questions on bullying, sociodemographic characteristics, health-risk behaviors, educational well-being, family structure, physical activity, markers of nutritional habits, and subjective well-being (body image, personal satisfaction, and satisfaction with their present and future life). Univariate and multivariate analysis was done using robust Poisson regression.RESULTS The prevalence of bullying was 26.2% (28.0% among males, 24.0% among females). The location of most bullying cases was at or on route to school (70.5%), followed by on the streets (28.5%), at home (9.8%), while practicing sports (7.3%), at parties (4.6%), at work (1.7%), and at other locations (1.6%). Reports of bullying were associated with life dissatisfaction, difficulty relating to parents, involvement in fights with peers and insecurity in the neighborhood.CONCLUSIONS A high prevalence of bullying among participating adolescents was found, and the school serves as the main bullying location, although other sites such as home, parties and workplace were also reported. Characteristics regarding self-perception and adolescent perceptions of their environment were also associated with bullying, thus advancing the knowledge of this type of violence, especially in urban centers of developing countries.
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OBJECTIVE To test whether the occupational conditions of professional truck drivers are associated with amphetamine use after demographic characteristics and ones regarding mental health and drug use are controlled for.METHODS Cross-sectional study, with a non-probabilistic sample of 684 male truck drivers, which was collected in three highways in Sao Paulo between years 2012 and 2013. Demographic and occupational information was collected, as well as data on drug use and mental health (sleep quality, emotional stress, and psychiatric disorders). A logistic regression model was developed to identify factors associated with amphetamine use. Odds ratio (OR; 95%CI) was defined as the measure for association. The significance level was established as p < 0.05.RESULTS The studied sample was found to have an average age of 36.7 (SD = 7.8) years, as well as low education (8.6 [SD = 2.3] years); 29.0% of drivers reported having used amphetamines within the twelve months prior to their interviews. After demographic and occupational variables had been controlled for, the factors which indicated amphetamine use among truck drivers were the following: being younger than 38 years (OR = 3.69), having spent less than nine years at school (OR = 1.76), being autonomous (OR = 1.65), working night shifts or irregular schedules (OR = 2.05), working over 12 hours daily (OR = 2.14), and drinking alcohol (OR = 1.74).CONCLUSIONS Occupational aspects are closely related to amphetamine use among truck drivers, which reinforces the importance of closely following the application of law (Resting Act (“Lei do Descanso”); Law 12,619/2012) which regulates the workload and hours of those professionals. Our results show the need for increased strictness on the trade and prescription of amphetamines in Brazil.
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This study aimed to show, based on the literature on the subject, the potential for dispersal and establishment of the chikungunya virus in Brazil. The chikungunya virus, a Togaviridae member of the genusAlphavirus, reached the Americas in 2013 and, the following year, more than a million cases were reported. In Brazil, indigenous transmission was registered in Amapa and Bahia States, even during the period of low rainfall, exposing the whole country to the risk of virus spreading. Brazil is historically infested by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, also dengue vectors. Chikungunya may spread, and it is important to take measures to prevent the virus from becoming endemic in the country. Adequate care for patients with chikungunya fever requires training general practitioners, rheumatologists, nurses, and experts in laboratory diagnosis. Up to November 2014, more than 1,000 cases of the virus were reported in Brazil. There is a need for experimental studies in animal models to understand the dynamics of infection and the pathogenesis as well as to identify pathophysiological mechanisms that may contribute to identifying effective drugs against the virus. Clinical trials are needed to identify the causal relationship between the virus and serious injuries observed in different organs and joints. In the absence of vaccines or effective drugs against the virus, currently the only way to prevent the disease is vector control, which will also reduce the number of cases of dengue fever.
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Purpose: Pressure ulcers are a high cost, high volume issue for health and medical care providers, having a detrimental effect on patients and relatives. Pressure ulcer prevention is widely covered in the literature, but little has been published regarding the risk to patients in the radiographical setting. This review of the current literature is to identify findings relevant to radiographical context. Methods: Literature searching was performed using Science Direct and Medline databases. The search was limited to articles published in the last ten years to remain current and excluded studies containing participants less than 17 years of age. In total 14 studies were acquired; three were excluded as they were not relevant. The remaining 11 studies were compared and reviewed. Discussion: Eight of the studies used ‘healthy’ participants and three used symptomatic participants. Nine studies explored interface pressure with a range of pressure mat technologies, two studies measured shear (MRI finite element modelling, and a non-invasive instrument), and one looked at blood flow and haemoglobin oxygenation. A range of surfaces were considered from trauma, nursing and surgical backgrounds for their ability to reduce pressure including standard mattresses, high specification mattresses, rigid and soft layer spine boards, various overlays (gel, air filled, foam). Conclusion: The current literature is not appropriate for the radiographic patient and cannot be extrapolated to a radiologic context. Sufficient evidence is presented in this review to support the need for further work specific to radiography in order to minimise the development of PU in at risk patients.
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between recurrent wheezing and atopy, the Asthma Predictive Index, exposure to risk factors, and total serum IgE levels as potential factors to predict recurrent wheezing. METHODS A case-control study with infants aged 6-24 months treated at a specialized outpatient clinic from November 2011 to March 2013. Evaluations included sensitivity to inhalant and food antigens, positive Asthma Predictive Index, and other risk factors for recurrent wheezing (smoking during pregnancy, presence of indoor smoke, viral infections, and total serum IgE levels). RESULTS We evaluated 113 children: 65 infants with recurrent wheezing (63.0% male) with a mean age of 14.8 (SD = 5.2) months and 48 healthy infants (44.0% male) with a mean age of 15.2 (SD = 5.1) months. In the multiple analysis model, antigen sensitivity (OR = 12.45; 95%CI 1.28–19.11), positive Asthma Predictive Index (OR = 5.57; 95%CI 2.23–7.96), and exposure to environmental smoke (OR = 2.63; 95%CI 1.09–6.30) remained as risk factors for wheezing. Eosinophilia ≥ 4.0% e total IgE ≥ 100 UI/mL were more prevalent in the wheezing group, but failed to remain in the model. Smoking during pregnancy was identified in a small number of mothers, and secondhand smoke at home was higher in the control group. CONCLUSIONS Presence of atopy, positive Asthma Predictive Index and exposure to environmental smoke are associated to recurrent wheezing. Identifying these factors enables the adoption of preventive measures, especially for children susceptible to persistent wheezing and future asthma onset.
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify the factors associated with severity of malocclusion in a population of adolescents. METHODS In this cross-sectional population-based study, the sample size (n = 761) was calculated considering a prevalence of malocclusion of 50.0%, with a 95% confidence level and a 5.0% precision level. The study adopted correction for the effect of delineation (deff = 2), and a 20.0% increase to offset losses and refusals. Multistage probability cluster sampling was adopted. Trained and calibrated professionals performed the intraoral examinations and interviews in households. The dependent variable (severity of malocclusion) was assessed using the Dental Aesthetic Index (DAI). The independent variables were grouped into five blocks: demographic characteristics, socioeconomic condition, use of dental services, health-related behavior and oral health subjective conditions. The ordinal logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with severity of malocclusion. RESULTS We interviewed and examined 736 adolescents (91.5% response rate), 69.9% of whom showed no abnormalities or slight malocclusion. Defined malocclusion was observed in 17.8% of the adolescents, being severe or very severe in 12.6%, with pressing or essential need of orthodontic treatment. The probabilities of greater severity of malocclusion were higher among adolescents who self-reported as black, indigenous, pardo or yellow, with lower per capita income, having harmful oral habits, negative perception of their appearance and perception of social relationship affected by oral health. CONCLUSIONS Severe or very severe malocclusion was more prevalent among socially disadvantaged adolescents, with reported harmful habits and perception of compromised esthetics and social relationships. Given that malocclusion can interfere with the self-esteem of adolescents, it is essential to improve public policy for the inclusion of orthodontic treatment among health care provided to this segment of the population, particularly among those of lower socioeconomic status.
Fractional derivatives: probability interpretation and frequency response of rational approximations
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The theory of fractional calculus (FC) is a useful mathematical tool in many applied sciences. Nevertheless, only in the last decades researchers were motivated for the adoption of the FC concepts. There are several reasons for this state of affairs, namely the co-existence of different definitions and interpretations, and the necessity of approximation methods for the real time calculation of fractional derivatives (FDs). In a first part, this paper introduces a probabilistic interpretation of the fractional derivative based on the Grünwald-Letnikov definition. In a second part, the calculation of fractional derivatives through Padé fraction approximations is analyzed. It is observed that the probabilistic interpretation and the frequency response of fraction approximations of FDs reveal a clear correlation between both concepts.
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The Basel III will have a significant impact on the European banking sector. In September 2010, supervisors of various countries adopted the new rules proposed by the prudential Committee on Banking Supervision to be applied to the business of credit institutions (hereinafter called ICs) in a phased manner from 2013, assuming to its full implementation by 2019. The purpose of this new regulation is to limit the excessive risk that these institutions took on the period preceding the global financial crisis of 2008. This new regulation is known in slang by Basel III. Depending on the requirement of Basel II for banks and their supervisors to assess the soundness and adequacy of internal risk measurement and credit management systems, the development of methodologies for the validation of internal and external evaluation systems is clearly an important issue . More specifically, there is a need to develop tools to validate the systems used to generate the parameters (such as PD, LGD, EAD and ratings of perceived risk) that serve as starting points for the IRB approach for credit risk. In this context, the work is composed of a number of approaches and tools used to evaluate the robustness of these elements IRB systems.
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the scientific literature about the effects of exposure to psychosocial risk factors in work contexts. METHODS A systematic review was performed using the terms “psychosocial factors” AND “COPSOQ” in the databases PubMed, Medline, and Scopus. The period analyzed was from January 1, 2004 to June 30, 2012. We have included articles that used the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ) as a measuring instrument of the psychosocial factors and the presentation of quantitative or qualitative results. German articles, psychometric studies or studies that did not analyze individual or work factors were excluded. RESULTS We included 22 articles in the analysis. Individual factors, such as gender, age, and socioeconomic status, were analyzed along with work-related factors such as labor demands, work organization and content, social relationships and leadership, work-individual interface, workplace values, justice and respect, personality, health and well-being, and offensive behaviors. We analyzed the sample type and the applied experimental designs. Some population groups, such as young people and migrants, are more vulnerable. The deteriorated working psychosocial environment is associated with physical health indicators and weak mental health. This environment is also a risk factor for the development of moderate to severe clinical conditions, predicting absenteeism or intention of leaving the job. CONCLUSIONS The literature shows the contribution of exposure to psychosocial risk factors in work environments and their impact on mental health and well-being of workers. It allows the design of practical interventions in the work context to be based on scientific evidences. Investigations in specific populations, such as industry, and studies with more robust designs are lacking.
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Thesis submitted to the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia to obtain the Master’s degree in Environmental Engineering, profile in Ecological Engineering