Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending

We study the effects of government spending by using a structural, large dimensional, dynamic factor model. We find that the government spending shock is non-fundamental for the variables commonly used in the structural VAR literature, so that its impulse response functions cannot be consistently estimated by means of a VAR. Government spending raises both consumption and investment, with no evidence of crowding out. The impact multiplier is 1.7 and the long run multiplier is 0.6.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Approche biochimique et morphologique des espèces du genre Trichia (Helicidae, Gastropoda) de Suisse occidentale

The highly polymorphic so called "Trichia hispida group" is taxonomically problematic. According to different authors, one to about one hundred species are recognized in this group. Some recent publications admit 8 species for Central Euorpe. The present study gives arguments from biochemical data (12 enzymatic loci are electrophoretically analysed) for regrouping 5 morphological types into 2 species : Trichia sericea (Müller) var. sericea, plebeia, montana and striolata, and T.hispida(L.). A multivariate analysis of morphological measurments, and patterns of coexistence seem to corroborate this interpretation. T. sericea presents a wider ecological and morphological range, and both species need further investigations on their ecological and taxonomical relationship.

Testing for sufficient information in structural VARs

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which a set of variables is informationally sufficient, i.e. it contains enough information to estimate the structural shocks with a VAR model. Based on such conditions, we suggest a procedure to test for informational sufficiency. Moreover, we show how to amend the VAR if informational sufficiency is rejected. We apply our procedure to a VAR including TFP, unemployment and per-capita hours worked. We find that the three variables are not informationally sufficient. When adding missing information, the effects of technology shocks change dramatically.

Haar wavelets-based approach for quantifying credit portfolio losses

This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelet basis functions and calculate the coefficients of the approximation by inverting its Laplace transform. The Wavelet Approximation (WA) method is specially suitable for non-smooth distributions, often arising in small or concentrated portfolios, when the hypothesis of the Basel II formulas are violated. To test the methodology we consider the Vasicek one-factor portfolio credit loss model as our model framework. WA is an accurate, robust and fast method, allowing to estimate VaR much more quickly than with a Monte Carlo (MC) method at the same level of accuracy and reliability.

Resultats a llarg termini del tractament quirúrgic de les fractures d’húmer proximal intervingudes mitjançant sutures aïllades o associades a claus d’Ender modificats

Valorem els resultats funcionals i de qualitat de vida a mig i a llarg termini de 38 fractures de l’húmer proximal, tractades en 17 casos amb fixació amb sutures transòssies i en 21 associant claus d’Ender modificats. Els pacients intervinguts amb sutures transòssies obtingueren millors resultats funcionals amb diferències significatives. Les fractures en 3 parts en valg obtingueren millors resultats funcionals que les desplaçades en var No s’observaren diferències de qualitat de vida segons tècnica quirúrgica i tipus de fractura. La fixació amb sutures associades o no a claus d’Ender modificats és una tècnica, útil, segura i amb baix índex de complicacions.

Credit risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model: a fast wavelet expansion approximation

To measure the contribution of individual transactions inside the total risk of a credit portfolio is a major issue in financial institutions. VaR Contributions (VaRC) and Expected Shortfall Contributions (ESC) have become two popular ways of quantifying the risks. However, the usual Monte Carlo (MC) approach is known to be a very time consuming method for computing these risk contributions. In this paper we consider the Wavelet Approximation (WA) method for Value at Risk (VaR) computation presented in [Mas10] in order to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) and the risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model framework. We decompose the VaR and the ES as a sum of sensitivities representing the marginal impact on the total portfolio risk. Moreover, we present technical improvements in the Wavelet Approximation (WA) that considerably reduce the computational effort in the approximation while, at the same time, the accuracy increases.

Oviposition Attractancy of Bacterial Culture Filtrates: response of Culex quinquefasciatus

Oviposition attractants could be used for monitoring as well as controlling mosquitoes by attracting them to lay eggs at chosen sites. In the present study, culture filtrates of seven bacterial species were tested for their attractancy against gravid females of Culex quinquefasciatus. When their oviposition active indices (OAI) were studied, the culture filtrates of Bacillus cereus and Pseudomonas fluorescens exhibited oviposition attractancy (OAI = >0.3) at 100 ppm and the OAI were respectively 0.70 and 0.47. Culture filtrates of B. thuringiensis var. israelensis (wild type), B. t. var. israelensis (mutant) and B. sphaericus showed attractancy at 2000 ppm with OAI of respectively 0.71, 0.59 and 0.68. However, the OAI of B. megaterium as well as Azospirillum brasilense was 0.13 (at 2000 ppm), which was less than 0.3 required to be considered them as attractants. When the oviposition attractancy of the bacterial culture filtrates were compared with that of a known oviposition attractant, p-cresol (at 10 ppm), the culture filtrates of B. t. var. israelensis (wild type) and B. cereus were found to be more active than p-cresol, respectively with 64.2 and 54.3% oviposition.

Morphological and polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment lenght polymorphism characterization of Biomphalaria kuhniana and Biomphalaria amazonica from Colombia

In Colombia, five Biomphalaria planorbid species are known: B. kuhniana, B. straminea, B. peregrina, B. canonica and B. oligoza(var. B. philippiana). Among them, B. straminea is intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni and B. peregrina has been found to be experimentally susceptible to this parasite. B. straminea is commonly confused with B. kuhniana and they have been clustered together with B. intermedia in the complex named B. straminea. The difficulties involved in the specific identification, based on morphological data, have motivated the use of new techniques as auxiliary tools in cases of inconclusive morphological identification of such planorbid. In the present study, five Biomphalaria populations from the Colombian Amazon region and from Interandian Valleys were morphologically identified and characterized by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment lenght polymorphism directed at the internal transcribed spacer region of the rRNA gene, followed by digestion of the generated fragment with restriction enzymes (DdeI, AluI, RsaI, MvaI and HaeIII). Known profiles of the Brazilian species B. straminea, B. peregrina, B. kuhniana, B. intermedia and B. amazonica, besides B. kuhniana from Colombia, were used for comparison. The five populations under study were morphologically and molecularly identified as B. kuhniana and B. amazonica.

Isolation of fungi in Musca domestica Linnaeus, 1758 (Diptera: Muscidae) captured at two natural breeding grounds in the municipality of Seropédica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The objective of this study was to isolate and identify fungal species found in natural association with adults of Musca domestica. The adult insects were collected from two natural breeding grounds: hog pens and an urban sanitary landfill. The isolated fungi were identified as: Aspergillus flavus (23.8%), A. niger var. niger (14.4%), Penicillium corylophilum (21.4%), P. fellutanum (11.9%), Cladosporium cladosporoides (4.7%), Fusarium sp. (4.7%), Alternaria alternata (11.9%), Curvularia brachyspora (2.4%), Mycelia sterilia (2.4%) and the Mucorales order (2.4%).

In vitro susceptibility characteristics of Cryptococcus neoformans varieties from AIDS patients in Goiânia, Brazil

Sixty clinical isolates of Cryptococcus neoformans from AIDS from Goiânia, state of Goiás, Brazil, were characterized according to varieties, serotypes and tested for antifungal susceptibility. To differentiate the two varieties was used L-canavanine-glycine-bromothymol blue medium and to separate the serotypes was used slide agglutination test with Crypto Check Iatron. The Minimal Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) of fluconazole, itraconazole, and amphotericin B were determined by the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards macrodilution method. Our results identified 56 isolates as C. neoformans var. neoformans serotype A and 4 isolates as C. neoformans var. gattii serotype B. MIC values for C. neoformans var. gattii were higher than C. neoformans var. neoformans. We verified that none isolate was resistant to itraconazole and to amphotericin B, but one C. neoformans var. neoformans and three C. neoformans var. gattii isolates were resistant to fluconazole. The presence of C. neoformans var. gattii fluconazole resistant indicates the importance of determining not only the variety of C. neoformans infecting the patients but also measuring the MIC of the isolate in order to properly orient treatment.

Antimicrobial activity and chemical investigation of Brazilian Drosera

The antimicrobial activity of three different extracts (hexanic, ethyl acetate, methanol) obtained from Brazilian Drosera species (D. communis, D. montana var. montana, D. brevifolia, D. villosa var. graomogolensis, D. villosa var. villosa, Drosera sp. 1, and Drosera sp. 2 ) were tested against Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923), Enterococcus faecium (ATCC23212), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC27853), Escherichia coli (ATCC11229), Salmonella choleraesuis (ATCC10708), Klebsiella pneumoniae (ATCC13883), and Candida albicans (a human isolate). Better antimicrobial activity was observed with D. communis and D. montana var. montana ethyl acetate extracts. Phytochemical analyses from D. communis, D. montana var. montana and D. brevifolia yielded 5-hydroxy-2-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinone (plumbagin); long chain aliphatic hydrocarbons were isolated from D. communis and from D. villosa var. villosa, a mixture of long chain aliphatic alcohols and carboxylic acids, was isolated from D. communis and 3b-O-acetylaleuritolic acid from D. villosa var. villosa.

Onychomycosis in Ceará (Northeast Brazil): epidemiological and laboratory aspects

Knowledge of epidemiological and mycological characteristics of onychomycosis has been noted by many authors as being an important tool for control of these fungal infections. This study seeks to improve knowledge of onychomycosis epidemiology and mycological features. Samples were taken from infected fingernails and toenails of 976 patients undergoing treatment at a respected Dermatology Center in Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil. Specimens from 512 patients (52%) were positive for onychomycosis. From the culture-positive samples, yeasts of the genus Candida (C. albicans, C. tropicalis, C. krusei, C. parapsilosis) were dominant. The dermatophytes isolated (Trichophyton rubrum, T. tonsurans, T. mentagrophytes var. mentagrophytes) were dominant in 46 patients (12.99%). The mould Fusarium spp. was isolated from 29 patients (8.19%). Yeast of the genus Candida is the main causal factor in onychomycosis in our region. Also, the study showed the importance of performing direct examination and culture in diagnosis of onychomycosis.

Antileishmanial and trypanocidal activity of Brazilian Cerrado plants

The side effects and the emerging resistance to the available drugs against leishmaniasis and trypanosomiasis led to the urgent need for new therapeutic agents against these diseases. Thirty one extracts of thirteen medicinal plants from the Brazilian Cerrado were therefore evaluated in vitro for their antiprotozoal activity against promastigotes of Leishmania donovani, and amastigotes of Trypanosoma cruzi. Among the selected plants, Casearia sylvestris var. lingua was the most active against both L. donovani and T. cruzi. Fifteen extracts were active against promastigotes of L. donovani with concentrations inhibiting 50% of parasite growth (IC50) between 0.1-10 µg/ml, particularly those of Annona crassiflora (Annonaceae), Himatanthus obovatus (Apocynaceae), Guarea kunthiana (Meliaceae), Cupania vernalis (Sapindaceae), and Serjania lethalis (Sapindaceae). With regard to amastigotes of T. cruzi, extracts of A. crassiflora, Duguetia furfuracea (Annonaceae), and C. sylvestris var. lingua were active with IC50 values between 0.3-10 µg/ml. Bioassay fractionations of the more active extracts are under progress to identify the active antiparasite compounds.