Small area estimation using linear mixed models with heterogeneous covariance structures of random effects

The problem of Small Area Estimation is about how to produce reliable estimates of domain characteristics when the sample sizes within the domain is very small ou even zero.

What’s in a surname? Physique, aptitude, and sports type comparisons between Tailors and Smiths

Combined heredity of surnames and physique, coupled with past marriage patterns and trade-specific physical aptitude and selection factors, may have led to differential assortment of bodily characteristics among present-day men with specific trade-reflecting surnames (Tailor vs. Smith). Two studies reported here were partially consistent with this genetic-social hypothesis, first proposed by Bäumler (1980). Study 1 (N = 224) indicated significantly higher self-rated physical aptitude for prototypically strength-related activities (professions, sports, hobbies) in a random sample of Smiths. The counterpart effect (higher aptitude for dexterity-related activities among Tailors) was directionally correct, but not significant, and Tailor-Smith differences in basic physique variables were not significant. Study 2 examined two large datasets (Austria/Germany combined, and UK: N = 7001 and 20532) of men’s national high-score lists for track-and-field events requiring different physiques. In both datasets, proportions of Smiths significantly increased from light-stature over medium-stature to heavy-stature sports categories. The predicted counterpart effect (decreasing prevalences of Tailors along these categories) was not supported. Related prior findings, implicit egotism as an alternative interpretation of the evidence, and directions for further inquiry are discussed in conclusion.

A biased random-key genetic algorithm with forward-backward improvement for the resource constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a biased random-key genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem. The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. Active schedules are constructed using a priority-rule heuristic in which the priorities of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. A forward-backward improvement procedure is applied to all solutions. The chromosomes supplied by the genetic algorithm are adjusted to reflect the solutions obtained by the improvement procedure. The heuristic is tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

A random key based genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a genetic algorithm for the Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP). The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedule is constructed using a heuristic priority rule in which the priorities of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. The heuristic generates parameterized active schedules. The approach was tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Avaliação do débito máximo da tosse (peak cough flow) na doença pulmonar obstrutiva crónica

Resumo Objectivos: Avaliação da Tosse em doentes com Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crónica (DPOC). Identificar e determinar a relação dos factores preditivos que contribuem para a deterioração da capacidade de tosse nestes indivíduos. Tipo de estudo: Estudo observacional descritivo de natureza transversal. Definição dos casos: Os critérios de diagnóstico da DPOC são o quadro clínico e o Gold standard para diagnóstico da DPOC – a espirometria. População-alvo: Todos os utentes com patologia primária de DPOC diagnosticada que se desloquem ao serviço de função respiratória do Hospital de Viseu, para realizar provas. Método de Amostragem: Foi utilizada uma amostra aleatória constituída por todos os indivíduos, que cumpriram os critérios de inclusão, conscientes e colaborantes, que aceitaram participar neste estudo. Dimensão da amostra: Uma amostra de 55 indivíduos que se deslocaram ao serviço de função respiratória, entre Janeiro e Junho de 2009, para realizar provas de função respiratória. Condução do estudo: Os utentes que aceitaram participar neste estudo foram sujeitos a um questionário de dados clínicos e realizaram 5 testes: índice de massa corporal (IMC), estudo funcional respiratório e gasometria arterial, avaliação da força dos músculos respiratórios (PImax e PEmax) e avaliação do débito máximo da tosse (Peak Cough Flow). Análise estatística: Foram obtidos dados caracterizadores da amostra em estudo, sendo posteriormente correlacionado o valor de débito máximo da tosse (Peak Cough Flow) com os resultados obtidos para as avaliações do IMC, estudo funcional respiratório, PImax e PEmax, gasometria, avaliação da capacidade de Tosse e número de internamentos no último ano por agudização da DPOC. Tendo sido encontrados os valores de correlação entre o Peak Cough Flow e os restantes parâmetros. Resultados: Após análise dos resultados, foram obtidos os valores de Peak Cough Flow para a população com DPOC e verificou-se valores diminuídos em comparação com os valores normais da população, tendo-se verificado maiores valores de PCF em indivíduos do sexo masculino, em comparação aos valores do sexo feminino. Foi analisada a relação entre o PCF e a idade, peso, altura e IMC, não tendo sido encontrada relação, dado que a tosse não apresenta uma variação segundo os valores antropométricos, tal como a relação com os valores espirométricos. Quanto aos parâmetros funcionais respiratórios foram analisadas as relações com o PCF. Verificou-se relações significativas entre o PCF e o FEV1, a FVC, o PEF, apresentando uma relação positiva, onde maiores valores destes parâmetros estão correlacionados com maiores picos de tosse. Quanto a RAW e RV, o PCF apresenta uma relação negativa, onde uma maior resistência da via aérea ou doentes mais hiperinsuflados leva a menores valores de PCF. Por outro lado não foi encontrada relação entre o PCF e a FRC e o TLC. Quanto à força dos músculos respiratórios, verificou-se relação significativa com o PImax e a PEmax em que a fraqueza ao nível dos músculos respiratórios contribuem para um menor valor de PCF. Relativamente aos valores da gasometria arterial, verificou-se relação entre o PCF e a PaO2 de forma positiva, em que doentes hipoxémicos apresentam menores valores de tosse, e a PaCO2, de forma negativa, em que os doentes hipercápnicos apresentam menores valores de PCF tendo sido verificada relação entre o PCF e o pH e sO2. Quanto à relação entre o número de internamentos por agudização da DPOC no último ano e o PCF verificou-se uma relação significativa, onde um menor valor de PCF contribui para uma maior taxa de internamento por agudização da DPOC. Conclusão: Este conjunto de conclusões corrobora a hipótese inicialmente formulada, de que o Peak Cough Flow se encontra diminuído nos indivíduos com Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crónica onde a variação do PCF se encontra directamente relacionada com os parâmetros funcionais respiratórios, com a força dos músculos respiratórios e com os valores de gasometria arterial. ABSTRACT: Aims: Cough evaluation in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients. Identify and determine the relation of the predictive factors that contribute to the cough capacity degradation in this type of patients. Type of study: Descriptive observational study of transversal nature. Case definition: The COPD diagnosis criteria are the clinical presentation and the gold standard to the COPD diagnosis- the Spirometry. Target Population: Every patients, with primary pathology of COPD diagnosed, who went to the respiratory function service of Viseu hospital to perform tests. Sampling Method: It was used a random sample constituted by all the, conscious and cooperating individuals, who complied with the inclusion criteria and who accepted to make part of this study. Sample size: A sample of 55 individuals that went to the respiratory function service between January and June 2009 to perform respiratory function tests. Study: The patients who accepted to make part of this study were submitted to a clinical data questionary and performed 5 tests: body mass index (BMI), respiratory functional study, arterial blood gas level, evaluation of respiratory muscles strength (maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) and maximum expiratory pressure (MEP)), and Peak Cough Flow evaluation. Statistic Analysis: Were obtained characterizing data of the sample in study, and later correlated the value of the Peak Cough Flow with the results from the evaluation of the body mass index (BMI), the respiratory functional study the MIP and MEP, the arterial blood gas level and also with the ability to cough evaluation and the number of hospitalizations in the last year for COPD exacerbations. The values of correlation between the Peak Cough Flow and the other parameters were found. Results: After analyzing the results, were obtained the values of Peak Cough Flow for the population with COPD. There were decreased values compared with the population normal values, having been found higher values of PCF in males compared to female values. It was analyzed the relation between the PCF and the age, weight, height and BMI but no relation was found on account of the fact that the cough does not show a variation according to anthropometric parameters, such as the relation with spirometric values. As for the respiratory functional parameters were analyzed relations with the PCF. There were significant relations between the PCF and FEV1, the FVC, the PEF, presenting a positive relation, where higher values of these parameters are correlated with higher incidence of cough. Concerning the RAW and RV, the PCF has a negative relation, in which a higher airway resistance or in more hyperinflated patients, leads to lower values of PCF. On the other hand no correlation was found between the PCF and the FRC and TLC. Regarding the respiratory muscle strength, there was a significant relation with the MIP and MEP, in which the weakness at the level of respiratory muscles contribute to a lower value of PCF. For values of arterial blood gas level, there was no relation between the PCF and PaO2, in a positive way, in which patients with hypoxemia present lower values of cough, and PaCO2, in a negative way in which hypercapnic patients had lower values of PCF, having being founded a relation between the PCF and the pH and sO2. As for the relation between the number of hospitalizations for COPD exacerbation in the last year and the PCF was found a significant relation, in which a smaller value of PCF contributes to a higher rate of hospitalization for COPD exacerbation. Conclusion: This set of findings supports the hypothesis first formulated that Peak Cough Flow is decreased in individuals with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, in which the variation of the PCF is directly related to the respiratory function parameters, the strength of respiratory muscles and the values of arterial blood gases.

Post-merger innovative performance in the renewable energy sector

Due to global warming and shrinking fossil fuel resources, politics as well as society urge for a reduction of green house gas (GHG) emissions. This leads to a re-orientation towards a renewable energy sector. In this context, innovation and new technologies are key success factors. Moreover, the renewable energy sector has entered a consolidation stage, where corporate investors and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) gain in importance. Although both M&A and innovation in the renewable energy sector are important corporate strategies, the link between those two aspects has not been examined before. The present thesis examines the research question how M&A influence the acquirer’s post-merger innovative performance in the renewable energy sector. Based on a framework of relevant literature, three hypotheses are defined. First, the relation between non-technology oriented M&A and post-merger innovative performance is discussed. Second, the impact of absolute acquired knowledge on postmerger innovativeness is examined. Third, the target-acquirer relatedness is discussed. A panel data set of 117 firms collected over a period of six years has been analyzed via a random effects negative binomial regression model and a time lag of one year. The results support a non-significant, negative impact of non-technology M&A on postmerger innovative performance. The applied model did not support a positive and significant impact of absolute acquired knowledge on post-merger innovative performance. Lastly, the results suggest a reverse relation than postulated by Hypothesis 3. Targets from the same industry significantly and negatively influence the acquirers’ innovativeness.

A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

Proving a market for a startup befor scaling using the hypothesis-driven entrepreneurship process

The year is 2015 and the startup and tech business ecosphere has never seen more activity. In New York City alone, the tech startup industry is on track to amass $8 billion dollars in total funding – the highest in 7 years (CB Insights, 2015). According to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurship (2015), this figure represents just 20% of the total funding in the United States. Thanks to platforms that link entrepreneurs with investors, there are simply more funding opportunities than ever, and funding can be initiated in a variety of ways (angel investors, venture capital firms, crowdfunding). And yet, in spite of all this, according to Forbes Magazine (2015), nine of ten startups will fail. Because of the unpredictable nature of the modern tech industry, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly why 90% of startups fail – but the general consensus amongst top tech executives is that “startups make products that no one wants” (Fortune, 2014). In 2011, author Eric Ries wrote a book called The Lean Startup in attempts to solve this all-too-familiar problem. It was in this book where he developed the framework for The Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, an iterative process that aims at proving a market before actually launching a product. Ries discusses concepts such as the Minimum Variable Product, the smallest set of activities necessary to disprove a hypothesis (or business model characteristic). Ries encourages acting briefly and often: if you are to fail, then fail fast. In today’s fast-moving economy, an entrepreneur cannot afford to waste his own time, nor his customer’s time. The purpose of this thesis is to conduct an in-depth of analysis of Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, in order to test market viability of a reallife startup idea, ShowMeAround. This analysis will follow the scientific Lean Startup approach; for the purpose of developing a functional business model and business plan. The objective is to conclude with an investment-ready startup idea, backed by rigorous entrepreneurial study.

Why do females mate with multiple males ? The sexually selected sperm hypothesis

One debated issues in evolutionary biology is, why in many species females mate with multiple males. Several hypotheses have been put forward, yet the benefits of multiple mating (here defined as mating with several males) remain unclear in many cases. The sperm sexual selection (SSS) hypothesis has been developed to account for the widespread occurrence of multiple mating in females. It argues that multiple mating by females may rapidly spread, when initially a small fraction of the females mate multiply, and if there is a heritable difference among males in one or several of the four characteristics: (1) the quantity of sperm they produce; (2) the success of their sperm in reaching and fertilizing an egg; (3) their ability to displace the sperm that females stored during previous mating; and (4) their ability to prevent any other male from subsequently introducing sperm (e.g., differential efficiency of mating plugs).

Priming psychic and conjuring abilities of a magic demonstration influences event interpretation and random number generation biases

Magical ideation and belief in the paranormal is considered to represent a trait-like character; people either believe in it or not. Yet, anecdotes indicate that exposure to an anomalous event can turn skeptics into believers. This transformation is likely to be accompanied by altered cognitive functioning such as impaired judgments of event likelihood. Here, we investigated whether the exposure to an anomalous event changes individuals' explicit traditional (religious) and non-traditional (e.g., paranormal) beliefs as well as cognitive biases that have previously been associated with non-traditional beliefs, e.g., repetition avoidance when producing random numbers in a mental dice task. In a classroom, 91 students saw a magic demonstration after their psychology lecture. Before the demonstration, half of the students were told that the performance was done respectively by a conjuror (magician group) or a psychic (psychic group). The instruction influenced participants' explanations of the anomalous event. Participants in the magician, as compared to the psychic group, were more likely to explain the event through conjuring abilities while the reverse was true for psychic abilities. Moreover, these explanations correlated positively with their prior traditional and non-traditional beliefs. Finally, we observed that the psychic group showed more repetition avoidance than the magician group, and this effect remained the same regardless of whether assessed before or after the magic demonstration. We conclude that pre-existing beliefs and contextual suggestions both influence people's interpretations of anomalous events and associated cognitive biases. Beliefs and associated cognitive biases are likely flexible well into adulthood and change with actual life events.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

A hypothesis for the geochemical anomaly in the North Creek Watershed /

A regional geochemical reconnaissance by bottom stream sediment sampling, has delineated an area of high metal content in the north central sector of the North Creek Watershed. Development of a geochemical model, relating to the relative chemical concentrations derived from the chemical analyses of bottom sediments, suspended sediments, stream waters and well waters collected from the north central sector, was designed to discover the source of the anomaly. Samples of each type of material were analysed by the A.R.L. Direct Reading Multi-element Emission Spectrograph Q.A. 137 for elements: Na, K, Ca, Sr, Si, As, Pb, Zn, Cd, Ni, Ti, Ag, Mo, Be, Fe, AI, Mn, Cu, Cr, P and Y. Anomalous results led to the discovery of a spring, the waters of which carried high concentrations of Zn, Cd, Pb, As, Ni, Ti, Ag, Sr and Si. In addition, the spring waters had high concentrations of Na, Ca, Mg, 504 , alkalinity, N03' and low concentrations of K, Cl and NH3. Increased specific conductivity (up to 2500 ~mho/cm.) was noted in the spring waters as well as increased calculated total dissolved solids (up to 2047 mg/l) and increased ionic strength (up to 0.06). On the other hand, decreases were noted in water temperature (8°C), pH (pH 7.2) and Eh (+.154 volts). Piezometer nests were installed in the anomalous north central sector of the watershed. In accordance with the slope of the piezometric surface from wells cased down to the till/bedrock interface, groundwater flow is directed from the recharge area (northwest of the anomaly) towards the artesian spring via the highly fractured dolostone aquifer of the Upper Eramosa Member. The bedrock aquifer is confined by the overlying Halton till and the underlying Lower Eramosa Member (Vinemount Shale). The oxidation of sphalerite and galena and the dissolution of gypsum, celestite, calcite, and dolomite within the Eramosa Member, contributed its highly, dissolved constituents to the circulating groundwaters, the age of which is greater than 20 years as determined by tritium dating. Groundwater is assumed to flow along the Vinemount Shale and discharge as an artesian spring where the shale unit becomes discontinuous. The anomaly is located on a topographic low where bedrock is close to the surface. Thermodynamic evaluation of the major ion speciation from the anomalous spring and surface waters, showed gypsum to be supersaturated in these spring waters. Downstream from the spring, the loss of carbon dioxide from the spring waters resulted in the supersaturation with respect to calcite, aragonite, magnesite and dolomite. This corresponded with increases in Eh (+.304 volts) and pH (pH 8.5) in the anomalous surface waters. In conclusion, the interaction of groundwaters within the highly, mineralized carbonate source (Eramosa Member) resulted in the characteristic Ca*Mg*HC03*S04 spring water at the anomalous site, which appeared to be the principle effect upon controlling the anomalous surface water chemistry.

The bees of Niagara: a test of the intermediate disturbance hypothesis /

This study examined the bee fauna of the Carolinian Zone in Ontario, Canada. In 2003, 15687 individuals from 152 species of bees were collected. Tliere were many rare species but few abundant species. There were three distinct bee seasons. The Niagara bee assemblage was less diverse compared to other Carolinian Zone assemblages and types of landscapes. This study also examined how anthropogenic disturbance affects the diversity of bee assemblages. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) was tested by selecting field sites subject to low, intermediate, and high disturbance. Intermediate disturbance had the highest species richness (SR=1 15) and most bees (N=556I), followed by low disturbance (SR= 100, N=2975), then high disturbance (SR=72, N=1364), supporting the IDH. Increased species richness in areas of intermediate disturbance was due to higher abundance, possibly because more blooming flowers were found there. Bees were larger in high disturbance areas but smaller in areas of high and intermediate disturbance.

Concept analysis in social studies

This project was undertaken because of a need to analyse concepts in social science more specifically and sequence them more carefully in a social science program. Concepts have been identified vaguely on many curriculum documents or left in isolation from each other when they are specifically identified. The project's aim was to identify a method for analysing concepts and sequencing their teaching on some rational basis. Once the method for analysing concepts was identified a questionnaire was designed and administered to a random sample of students at the grade three, five and eight levels. The questionnaire attempted to measure their comprehension of specific social science concepts at several levels which became progressively more complex. The major hypothesis was that there would be a direct correlation between age and achievement on the questionnaire. The raw scores were seriated and correlated with the ages of the students using the rankdifference- squared method. For the majority of areas tested it was found that there was a significant correlation between age and achievement on the questionnaire. Variation in the correlation coefficients generated suggests that comprehension of social science concepts is not simply a function of age but is probably a function of several inter-related factors such as reading ability, skill in Basic Thinking Skills and age. Thirty students completed each test. There were three tests in the questionnaire.