Tree-based iterated local search for Markov random fields with applications in image analysis

The maximum a posteriori assignment for general structure Markov random fields is computationally intractable. In this paper, we exploit tree-based methods to efficiently address this problem. Our novel method, named Tree-based Iterated Local Search (T-ILS), takes advantage of the tractability of tree-structures embedded within MRFs to derive strong local search in an ILS framework. The method efficiently explores exponentially large neighborhoods using a limited memory without any requirement on the cost functions. We evaluate the T-ILS on a simulated Ising model and two real-world vision problems: stereo matching and image denoising. Experimental results demonstrate that our methods are competitive against state-of-the-art rivals with significant computational gain.

Ordinal random fields for recommender systems

Recommender Systems heavily rely on numerical preferences, whereas the importance of ordinal preferences has only been recognised in recent works of Ordinal Matrix Factorisation (OMF). Although the OMF can effectively exploit ordinal properties, it captures only the higher-order interactions among users and items, without considering the localised interactions properly. This paper employs Markov Random Fields (MRF) to investigate the localised interactions, and proposes a unified model called Ordinal Random Fields (ORF) to take advantages of both the representational power of the MRF and the ease of modelling ordinal preferences by the OMF. Experimental result on public datasets demonstrates that the proposed ORF model can capture both types of interactions, resulting in improved recommendation accuracy.

A random coefficient approach to the predictability of stock returns in panels

© The Author, 2014. Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit-by-unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that exist are too restrictive in the sense that they are based on homogeneity assumptions that might not be true. As a response to this, the current study proposes new predictability tests in the context of a random coefficient panel data model, in which the null of no predictability corresponds to the joint restriction that the predictive slope has zero mean and variance. The tests are applied to a large panel of stocks listed at the New York Stock Exchange. The results suggest that while the predictive slopes tend to average to zero, in case of book-to-market and cash flow-to-price the variance of the slopes is positive, which we take as evidence of predictability.

Stabilizing high-dimensional prediction models using feature graphs

We investigate feature stability in the context of clinical prognosis derived from high-dimensional electronic medical records. To reduce variance in the selected features that are predictive, we introduce Laplacian-based regularization into a regression model. The Laplacian is derived on a feature graph that captures both the temporal and hierarchic relations between hospital events, diseases, and interventions. Using a cohort of patients with heart failure, we demonstrate better feature stability and goodness-of-fit through feature graph stabilization.

Preference relation-based markov random fields

A preference relation-based Top-N recommendation approach, PrefMRF, is proposed to capture both the second-order and the higher-order interactions among users and items. Traditionally Top-N recommendation was achieved by predicting the item ratings fi rst, and then inferring the item rankings, based on the assumption of availability of explicit feed-backs such as ratings, and the assumption that optimizing the ratings is equivalent to optimizing the item rankings. Nevertheless, both assumptions are not always true in real world applications. The proposed PrefMRF approach drops these assumptions by explicitly exploiting the preference relations, a more practical user feedback. Comparing to related work, the proposed PrefMRF approach has the unique property of modeling both the second-order and the higher-order interactions among users and items. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time both types of interactions have been captured in preference relation-based method. Experiment results on public datasets demonstrate that both types of interactions have been properly captured, and signifi cantly improved Top-N recommendation performance has been achieved.

Differentially private random forest with high utility

Privacy-preserving data mining has become an active focus of the research community in the domains where data are sensitive and personal in nature. For example, highly sensitive digital repositories of medical or financial records offer enormous values for risk prediction and decision making. However, prediction models derived from such repositories should maintain strict privacy of individuals. We propose a novel random forest algorithm under the framework of differential privacy. Unlike previous works that strictly follow differential privacy and keep the complete data distribution approximately invariant to change in one data instance, we only keep the necessary statistics (e.g. variance of the estimate) invariant. This relaxation results in significantly higher utility. To realize our approach, we propose a novel differentially private decision tree induction algorithm and use them to create an ensemble of decision trees. We also propose feasible adversary models to infer about the attribute and class label of unknown data in presence of the knowledge of all other data. Under these adversary models, we derive bounds on the maximum number of trees that are allowed in the ensemble while maintaining privacy. We focus on binary classification problem and demonstrate our approach on four real-world datasets. Compared to the existing privacy preserving approaches we achieve significantly higher utility.

Labeled random finite sets and the bayes multi-target tracking filter

An analytic solution to the multi-target Bayes recursion known as the δ-Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli ( δ-GLMB) filter has been recently proposed by Vo and Vo in [“Labeled Random Finite Sets and Multi-Object Conjugate Priors,” IEEE Trans. Signal Process., vol. 61, no. 13, pp. 3460-3475, 2014]. As a sequel to that paper, the present paper details efficient implementations of the δ-GLMB multi-target tracking filter. Each iteration of this filter involves an update operation and a prediction operation, both of which result in weighted sums of multi-target exponentials with intractably large number of terms. To truncate these sums, the ranked assignment and K-th shortest path algorithms are used in the update and prediction, respectively, to determine the most significant terms without exhaustively computing all of the terms. In addition, using tools derived from the same framework, such as probability hypothesis density filtering, we present inexpensive (relative to the δ-GLMB filter) look-ahead strategies to reduce the number of computations. Characterization of the L1-error in the multi-target density arising from the truncation is presented.

Intrahousehold allocation in an unintentional random experiment

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A teoria da eficiência no mercado de capitais: uma revisão da literatura e dos trabalhos empíricos: o modelos de Random walk aplicado ao índice de mercado de ações Bovespa

Durante muitos anos uma controversa questão tem ocupado tanto os discursos acadêmicos quanto os financeiros. O problema a ser resolvido diz respeito à evolução passada dos preços das ações e se tal evolução poderia ser utilizada para prever o comportamento dos preços futuros dessas ações.

Estimation of random coefficients logit demand models: an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market

Estimation of demand and supply in differentiated products markets is a central issue in Empirical Industrial Organization and has been used to study the effects of taxes, merges, introduction of new goods, market power, among others. Logit and Random Coefficients Logit are examples of demand models used to study these effects. For the supply side it is generally supposed a Nash equilibrium in prices. This work presents a detailed discussion of these models of demand and supply as well as the procedure for estimation. Lastly, is made an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market.

Portifolio selection with random transaction costs

Transaction costs have a random component in the bid-ask spread. Facing a high bid-ask spread, the consumer has the option to wait for better terms oI' trade, but only by carrying an undesirable portfolio balance. We present the best policy in this case. We pose the control problem and show that the value function is the uni que viscosity solution of the relevant variational inequality. Next, a numerical procedure for the problem is presented.

A Higher order and stable method for the numerical integration of Random Differential Equations

Trabalho apresentado no Congresso Nacional de Matemática Aplicada à Indústria, 18 a 21 de novembro de 2014, Caldas Novas - Goiás

Numerical integration of coupled stochastic oscillators driven by Random Forces

Trabalho apresentado no International Conference on Scientific Computation And Differential Equations 2015

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

An investigation of Hebbian phase sequences as assembly graphs

Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb's theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb's view that assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition.