Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Growth response of Heterobranchus longifilis (Valenciennes, 1840) fingerlings fed raw and boiled Mucuna cochinchinensis seed meal

Feeding trial was conducted in static water to assess the growth of H. longifilis fingerlings fed different I inclusion levels of mucuna seed meal (MSM). Raw and boiled MSM were used in the diets at 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% inclusion levels and the performance of fish fed these diets was compared with fish fed a fishmeal-based diet which contained 40% protein. All diets were prepared to be isonitrogenous and isocaloric A two by five factorial experiment with three replicates using ten fish of average initial weight 1 .46g was carried out. Daily fish ration of five percent body weight was administered two times for eight weeks. The specific growth rate in diets 1 (control) and 6(10% boiled MSM) were similar and significantly (P<0.05) higher than the other dietary groups. The significantly lower growth performance of fish fed diets containing higher inclusion levels of both raw and boiled MSM might be due to incomplete elimination of the antinutritional factors present in MSM by boiling. Other methods of processing MSM to improve its nutritive value should be investigated. (7 page document)

Comparative Response of Two Hydrilla Strains to Fluridone

Experiments were conducted in a controlled-environmental growth chamber to evaluate the response of two strains of the invasive submersed plant Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle to fluridone (1-methyl-3-phenyl-5-[3-trifluoromethyl)phenyl]- 4(1H)-pyridinone). (PDF has 6 pages.)

加卸载响应比(Load/Unload Response Ratio)、能量加速释放(AE/MR)的临界区尺度及地震预测

加卸载响应比理论的主要思路是 :系统在稳定状态时加载响应与卸载响应的比值与非稳定状态时加载响应与卸载响应的比值是完全不同的。大震前加卸载响应比升高和能量加速释放这两种现象可以用来对地震进行中期预报。同时 ,加卸载响应比理论和能量加速释放可能有相同的物理机制。为了验证这种地震预报方法的可行性 ,我们研究了几例发生在澳大利亚与中国 ,M 5 0～ 7 9之间的地震 ,其中包括破坏严重的澳大利亚纽卡斯尔地震和中国的唐山地震。我们利用以震源中心一定范围内的数据计算了震前的加卸载响应比和能量加速释放的幂律拟合。能量幂律加速释放存在一组最佳的拟合 ,一定范围内加卸载响应比达最大值表明加卸载响应比也有一个临界区尺度。进一步讲 ,加卸载响应比与能量加速释放的临界区尺度是相似的。这些结果表明加卸载响应比与能量加速释放有相同的物理机制。进一步的研究可能会对这种物理机制提供更好的解释 ,同时也能对地震的中期预报提供理论基础

Vegetation response to cattail management at Cheyenne Bottoms, Kansas

Dense, monospecific cattail (Typha spp.) stands are a problem in many prairie wetlands because they alter habitat structure and function, resulting in a decrease in use by wildlife species. Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Area, a Wetland of International Importance in central Kansas, has experienced a large increase in cattails and a subsequent decrease in migratory wetland bird use. As a consequence, intensive cattail management is practiced. We assessed the effectiveness of prescribed burning, discing following prescribed burning, and cattle grazing following prescribed burning at two stocking rates of 5 and 20 head per 11 ha in suppressing cattail, as well as the effects of these treatments on non-cattail vegetation.

Response of St. Augustinegrass to Fluridone in Irrigation Water

Research has shown that aquatic weeds, particularly hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata , (L.F.) Royle), can be controlled with exposure of 8 to 12 weeks with concentrations of 10 to 15 ppb of fluridone (1-methyl-3-phenyl-5-[3-trifluoromethyl) phenyl]-4(1 H )- pyridinone) (Haller et al. 1990 and Fox et al. 1994). Fluridone label recommendations restrict the use of the treated waters for irrigation of turf or newly seeded crops and seed beds for 30 days following the last application of the herbicide. The objective of this research was to determine the effects of 10 weeks of irrigation with fluridone containing water on a common Florida residential turfgrass.

Population response of triploid grass carp to declining levels of hydrilla in the Santee Cooper Reservoirs, South Carolina

Approximately 768,500 triploid grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella Valenciennes) were stocked into the Santee Cooper reservoirs, South Carolina between 1989 and 1996 to control hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle). Hydrilla coverage was reduced from a high of 17,272 ha during 1994 to a few ha by 1998. During 1997, 1998 and 1999, at least 98 triploid grass carp were collected yearly for population monitoring. Estimates of age, growth, and mortality, as well as population models, were used in the study to monitor triploid grass carp and predict population trends. Condition declined from that measured during a previous study in 1994. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 28% in 1997, 32% in 1998 and 39% in 1999; however, only the 1999 mortality rate was significantly different. Few (2 out of 98) of the triploid grass carp collected during 1999 were older than age 9. We expect increased mortality due to an aging population and sparse hydrilla coverage. During 1999, we estimated about 63,000 triploid grass carp system wide and project less than 3,000 fish by 2004, assuming no future stocking. management, population size Ctenopharyngodon idella, Hydrilla

Nonlinear Dynamic Response of Tension Leg Platform

Tension Leg Platform (TLP) is a typical compliant offshore structure for oil exploitation in deep water. Most of the existing mathematical models for analyzing the dynamic response of TLP are based on explicit or implicit assumptions that displacements (translations and rotations) are small magnitude. Herein a theoretical method for analyzing the nonlinear dynamic behavior of TLP with finite displacement is developed, in which multifold nonlinearities are taken into account, i.e. finite displacement, coupling of the six degrees of freedom, instantaneous position, instantaneous wet surface, free surface effects and viscous drag force. Using this theoretical model, we perform the numerical analysis of dynamic response of a representative TLP. The comparison between the degenerative linear solution of the proposed nonlinear model and the published one shows good agreements. Furthermore, numerical results are presented which illustrate that nonlinearities exert a distinct influence on the dynamic responses of the TLP.

Short-Term Nonlinear Response of Tension Leg Platform in Random Sea Waves

Most of the existing mathematical models for analyzing the dynamic response of TLP are based on explicit or implicit assumptions that motions (translations and rotations) are small magnitude. However, when TLP works in severe adverse conditions, the a priori assumption on small displacements may be inadequate. In such situation, the motions should be regarded as finite magnitude. This paper will study stochastic nonlinear dynamic responses of TLP with finite displacements in random waves. The nonlinearities considered are: large amplitude motions, coupling the six degrees-of-freedom, instantaneous position, instantaneous wet surface, free surface effects and viscous drag force. The nonlinear dynamic responses are calculated by using numerical integration procedure in the time domain. After the time histories of the dynamic responses are obtained, we carry out cycle counting of the stress histories of the tethers with rain-flow counting method to get the stress range distribution.

The response of porous Al2O3 probed to nanoindentation

The response of porous Al2O3 to nanoindentation was investigated at microscopic scales (nm-mu m) and under ultra-low loads from 5 to 90 mN with special attention paid to the dependence of the load-depth behaviour to sample porosity. It was found that the load-depth curves manifest local responses typical of the various porous structures investigated. This is particularly clear for the residual deformation after load removal. Similarly, the limited mean pressure of the sample containing small grains and interconnected pores is consistent with its porous structure. By comparison, the samples with larger grain size and various porous structures exhibit higher pressures and smaller residual deformations that can be attributed to the mechanical response of the solid phase. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

U.S. Caribbean fish trap fishery costs and earnings study

Executive Summary: This study describes the socio-economic characteristics of the U.S. Caribbean trap fishery that encompasses the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. In-person interviews were administered to one hundred randomly selected trap fishermen, constituting nearly 25% of the estimated population. The sample was stratified by geographic area and trap tier. The number of traps owned or fished to qualify for a given tier varied by island. In Puerto Rico, tier I consisted of fishermen who had between 1-40 fish traps, tier II was made up of fishermen who possessed between 41 and 100 fish traps, and tier III consisted of fishermen who held in excess of 100 fish traps. In St. Thomas and St. John, tier I was composed of fishermen who held between 1 and 50 fish traps, tier II consisted of fishermen who had between 51-150 fish traps and tier III was made up of fishermen who had in excess of 150 fish traps. Lastly, in St. Croix, tier I was made up of fishermen who had less than 20 fish traps and tier II consisted of fishermen who had 20 or more fish traps. The survey elicited information on household demographics, annual catch and revenue, trap usage, capital investment on vessels and equipment, fixed and variable costs, behavioral response to a hypothetical trap reduction program and the spatial distribution of traps. The study found that 79% of the sampled population was 40 years or older. The typical Crucian trap fisherman was older than their Puerto Rican and St. Thomian and St. Johnian counterparts. Crucian fishermen’s average age was 57 years whereas Puerto Rican fishermen’s average age was 51 years, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen’s average age was 48 years. As a group, St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen had 25 years of fishing experience, and Puerto Rican and Crucian fishermen had 30, and 29 years, respectively. Overall, 90% of the households had at least one dependent. The average number of dependents across islands was even, ranging between 2.8 in the district of St. Thomas and St. John and 3.4 in the district of St. Croix. The percentage utilization of catch for personal or family use was relatively low. Regionally, percentage use of catch for personal or family uses ranged from 2.5% in St. Croix to 3.8% in the St. Thomas and St. John. About 47% of the respondents had a high school degree. The majority of the respondents were highly dependent on commercial fishing for their household income. In St. Croix, commercial fishing made up 83% of the fishermen’s total household income, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John and Puerto Rico it contributed 74% and 68%, respectively. The contribution of fish traps to commercial fishing income ranged from 51% in the lowest trap tier in St. Thomas and St. John to 99% in the highest trap tier in St. Croix. On an island basis, the contribution of fish traps to fishing income was 75% in St. Croix, 61% in St. Thomas and St. John, and 59% in Puerto Rico. The value of fully rigged vessels ranged from $400 to $250,000. Over half of the fleet was worth $10,000 or less. The St. Thomas and St. John fleet reported the highest mean value, averaging $58,518. The Crucian and Puerto Rican fleets were considerably less valuable, averaging $19,831 and $8,652, respectively. The length of the vessels ranged from 14 to 40 feet. Fifty-nine percent of the sampled vessels were at least 23 feet in length. The average length of the St. Thomas and St. John fleet was 28 feet, whereas the fleets based in St. Croix and Puerto Rico averaged 21 feet. The engine’s propulsion ranged from 8 to 400 horsepower (hp). The mean engine power was 208 hp in St. Thomas and St. John, 108 hp in St. Croix, and 77 hp in Puerto Rico. Mechanical trap haulers and depth recorders were the most commonly used on-board equipment. About 55% of the sampled population reported owning mechanical trap haulers. In St. Thomas and St. John, 100% of the respondents had trap haulers compared to 52% in Puerto Rico and 20% in St. Croix. Forty-seven percent of the fishermen surveyed stated having depth recorders. Depth recorders were most common in the St. Thomas and St. John fleet (80%) and least common in the Puerto Rican fleet (37%). The limited presence of emergency position indication radio beacons (EPIRBS) and radar was the norm among the fish trap fleet. Only 8% of the respondents had EPIRBS and only 1% had radar. Interviewees stated that they fished between 1 and 350 fish traps. Puerto Rican respondents fished on average 39 fish traps, in contrast to St. Thomian and St. Johnian and Crucian respondents, who fished 94 and 27 fish traps, respectively. On average, Puerto Rican respondents fished 11 lobster traps, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian respondents fished 46 lobster traps. None of the Crucian respondents fished lobster traps. The number of fish traps built or purchased ranged between 0 and 175, and the number of lobster traps built or bought ranged between 0 and 200. Puerto Rican fishermen on average built or purchased 30 fish traps and 14 lobster traps, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen built or bought 30 fish traps and 11 lobster traps. Crucian fishermen built or bought 25 fish traps and no lobster traps. As a group, fish trap average life ranged between 1.3 and 5 years, and lobster traps lasted slightly longer, between 1.5 and 6 years. The study found that the chevron or arrowhead style was the most common trap design. Puerto Rican fishermen owned an average of 20 arrowhead traps. St. Thomian and St. Johnian and Crucian fishermen owned an average of 44 and 15 arrowhead fish traps, respectively. The second most popular trap design was the square trap style. Puerto Rican fishermen had an average of 9 square traps, whereas St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen had 33 traps and Crucian fishermen had 2 traps. Antillean Z (or S) -traps, rectangular and star traps were also used. Although Z (or S) -traps are considered the most productive trap design, fishermen prefer the smaller-sized arrowhead and square traps because they are easier and less expensive to build, and larger numbers of them can be safely deployed. The cost of a fish trap, complete with rope and buoys, varied significantly due to the wide range of construction materials utilized. On average, arrowhead traps commanded $94 in Puerto Rico, $251 in St. Thomas and St. John, and $119 in St. Croix. The number of trips per week ranged between 1 and 6. However, 72% of the respondents mentioned that they took two trips per week. On average, Puerto Rican fishermen took 2.1 trips per week, St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen took 1.4 trips per week, and Crucian fishermen took 2.5 trips per week. Most fishing trips started at dawn and finished early in the afternoon. Over 82% of the trips lasted 8 hours or less. On average, Puerto Rican fishermen hauled 27 fish traps per trip whereas St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen and Crucian fishermen hauled 68 and 26 fish traps per trip, respectively. The number of traps per string and soak time varied considerably across islands. In St. Croix, 84% of the respondents had a single trap per line, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John only 10% of the respondents had a single trap per line. Approximately, 43% of Puerto Rican fishermen used a single trap line. St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen soaked their traps for 6.9 days while Puerto Rican and Crucian fishermen soaked their traps for 5.7 and 3.6 days, respectively. The heterogeneity of the industry was also evidenced by the various economic surpluses generated. The survey illustrated that higher gross revenues did not necessarily translate into higher net revenues. Our analysis also showed that, on average, vessels in the trap fishery were able to cover their cash outlays, resulting in positive vessel income (i.e., financial profits). In Puerto Rico, annual financial profits ranged from $4,760 in the lowest trap tier to $32,467 in the highest tier, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John annual financial profits ranged from $3,744 in the lowest tier to $13,652 in the highest tier. In St. Croix, annual financial profits ranged between $9,229 and $15,781. The survey also showed that economic profits varied significantly across tiers. Economic profits measure residual income after deducting the remuneration required to keep the various factors of production in their existing employment. In Puerto Rico, annual economic profits ranged from ($9,339) in the lowest trap tier to $ 8,711 in the highest trap tier. In St. Thomas and St. John, annual economic profits ranged from ($7,920) in the highest tier to ($18,486) in the second highest tier. In St. Croix, annual economic profits ranged between ($7,453) to $10,674. The presence of positive financial profits and negative economic profits suggests that higher economic returns could be earned from a societal perspective by redirecting some of these scarce capital and human resources elsewhere in the economy. Furthermore, the presence of negative economic earnings is evidence that the fishery is overcapitalized and that steps need to be taken to ensure the long-run economic viability of the industry. The presence of positive financial returns provides managers with a window of opportunity to adopt policies that will strengthen the biological and economic performance of the fishery while minimizing any adverse impacts on local fishing communities. Finally, the document concludes by detailing how the costs and earnings information could be used to develop economic models that evaluate management proposals. (PDF contains 147 pages)