Bayesian-MCMC inversion of time-lapse geophysical data to characterize vadose zone hydraulic behaviour

Geophysical methods have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, time-lapse geophysical data, when coupled with a hydrological model and inverted stochastically, may allow for the effective estimation of subsurface hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. In this study, we use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach to investigate how much information regarding vadose zone hydraulic properties can be retrieved from time-lapse crosshole GPR data collected at the Arrenaes field site in Denmark during a forced infiltration experiment.

A design science approach to support the assessment of disruptive technology : the Swiss mobile payment case

Abstract In this thesis we present the design of a systematic integrated computer-based approach for detecting potential disruptions from an industry perspective. Following the design science paradigm, we iteratively develop several multi-actor multi-criteria artifacts dedicated to environment scanning. The contributions of this thesis are both theoretical and practical. We demonstrate the successful use of multi-criteria decision-making methods for technology foresight. Furthermore, we illustrate the design of our artifacts using build and-evaluate loops supported with a field study of the Swiss mobile payment industry. To increase the relevance of this study, we systematically interview key Swiss experts for each design iteration. As a result, our research provides a realistic picture of the current situation in the Swiss mobile payment market and reveals previously undiscovered weak signals for future trends. Finally, we suggest a generic design process for environment scanning.

Computer-Aided Business Model Design

There is a lack of dedicated tools for business model design at a strategic level. However, in today's economic world the need to be able to quickly reinvent a company's business model is essential to stay competitive. This research focused on identifying the functionalities that are necessary in a computer-aided design (CAD) tool for the design of business models in a strategic context. Using design science research methodology a series of techniques and prototypes have been designed and evaluated to offer solutions to the problem. The work is a collection of articles which can be grouped into three parts: First establishing the context of how the Business Model Canvas (BMC) is used to design business models and explore the way in which CAD can contribute to the design activity. The second part extends on this by proposing new technics and tools which support elicitation, evaluation (assessment) and evolution of business models design with CAD. This includes features such as multi-color tagging to easily connect elements, rules to validate coherence of business models and features that are adapted to the correct business model proficiency level of its users. A new way to describe and visualize multiple versions of a business model and thereby help in addressing the business model as a dynamic object was also researched. The third part explores extensions to the business model canvas such as an intermediary model which helps IT alignment by connecting business model and enterprise architecture. And a business model pattern for privacy in a mobile environment, using privacy as a key value proposition. The prototyped techniques and proposition for using CAD tools in business model modeling will allow commercial CAD developers to create tools that are better suited to the needs of practitioners.

Lomborg, Vanhanen ja Intelligent Design - kommentti Matti Kamppiselle

Kommentti Matti Kamppisen kirjoitukseen TT -lehdessä 1/2005

Development of Preliminary Load and Resistance Factor Design of Drilled Shafts in Iowa, RB03-012, 2014

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandated utilizing the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach for all new bridges initiated in the United States after October 1, 2007. To achieve part of this goal, a database for Drilled Shaft Foundation Testing (DSHAFT) was developed and reported on by Garder, Ng, Sritharan, and Roling in 2012. DSHAFT is aimed at assimilating high-quality drilled shaft test data from Iowa and the surrounding regions. DSHAFT is currently housed on a project website (http://srg.cce.iastate.edu/dshaft) and contains data for 41 drilled shaft tests. The objective of this research was to utilize the DSHAFT database and develop a regional LRFD procedure for drilled shafts in Iowa with preliminary resistance factors using a probability-based reliability theory. This was done by examining current design and construction practices used by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) as well as recommendations given in the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) LRFD Bridge Design Specifications and the FHWA drilled shaft guidelines. Various analytical methods were used to estimate side resistance and end bearing of drilled shafts in clay, sand, intermediate geomaterial (IGM), and rock. Since most of the load test results obtained from O-cell do not pass the 1-in. top displacement criterion used by the Iowa DOT and the 5% of shaft diameter for top displacement criterion recommended by AASHTO, three improved procedures are proposed to generate and extend equivalent top load-displacement curves that enable the quantification of measured resistances corresponding to the displacement criteria. Using the estimated and measured resistances, regional resistance factors were calibrated following the AASHTO LRFD framework and adjusted to resolve any anomalies observed among the factors. To illustrate the potential and successful use of drilled shafts in Iowa, the design procedures of drilled shaft foundations were demonstrated and the advantages of drilled shafts over driven piles were addressed in two case studies.

Referral from primary care to a physical activity programme: establishing long-term adherence? A randomized controlled trial. Rationale and study design

Background: Declining physical activity is associated with a rising burden of global disease. There is little evidence about effective ways to increase adherence to physical activity. Therefore, interventions are needed that produce sustained increases in adherence to physical activity and are cost-effective. The purpose is to assess the effectiveness of a primary care physical activity intervention in increasing adherence to physical activity in the general population seen in primary care. Method and design: Randomized controlled trial with systematic random sampling. A total of 424 subjects of both sexes will participate; all will be over the age of 18 with a low level of physical activity (according to the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, IPAQ), self-employed and from 9 Primary Healthcare Centres (PHC). They will volunteer to participate in a physical activity programme during 3 months (24 sessions; 2 sessions a week, 60 minutes per session). Participants from each PHC will be randomly allocated to an intervention (IG) and control group (CG). The following parameters will be assessed pre and post intervention in both groups: (1) health-related quality of life (SF-12), (2) physical activity stage of change (Prochaska's stages of change), (3) level of physical activity (IPAQ-short version), (4) change in perception of health (vignettes from the Cooperative World Organization of National Colleges, Academies, and Academic Associations of Family Physicians, COOP/WONCA), (5) level of social support for the physical activity practice (Social Support for Physical Activity Scale, SSPAS), and (6) control based on analysis (HDL, LDL and glycated haemoglobin).Participants' frequency of visits to the PHC will be registered over the six months before and after the programme. There will be a follow up in a face to face interview three, six and twelve months after the programme, with the reduced version of IPAQ, SF-12, SSPAS, and Prochaska's stages. Discussion: The pilot study showed the effectiveness of an enhanced low-cost, evidence-based intervention in increased physical activity and improved social support. If successful in demonstrating long-term improvements, this randomised controlled trial will be the first sustainable physical activity intervention based in primary care in our country to demonstrate longterm adherence to physical activity. Trial Registration: A service of the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Developed by the National Library of Medicine. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT00714831.

El principio del Universal Design. Concepto y desarrollos en la enseñanza superior

Los principios, las prácticas y la investigación sobre diseño universal han sidoimplantados progresivamente en diferentes ámbitos, respecto al diseño y la preparación de entornos para la atención a las necesidades de las personas con discapacidad. En el contexto internacional, este desarrollo ha estado vinculado al avance en derechos sobre igualdad de oportunidades. En el contexto legislativo español, en la Ley 51/2003 se introducen definiciones sobre «accesibilidad universal» y «diseño para todos», con lo que se genera un marco que posibilita el análisis de fuentes conceptuales y de aplicación en nuestro contexto, de las aportaciones del diseño universal, así como su consideración para la fundamentación de prácticas de innovación e investigación en nuestros ámbitos universitarios. En este trabajo, a partir de una amplia revisión de fuentes y aportaciones de gran trayectoria en este campo, se presentan y analizan distintos enfoques, a través de los cuales se están desarrollando y aplicando prácticas de diseño universal en el ámbito de la enseñanza universitaria, y se plantean sus implicaciones educativas. Este análisis permite concluir que las aplicaciones del diseño universal parecen más prometedoras para el progreso hacia metas de inclusión en el entorno universitario que una perspectiva de «adaptación curricular»; aunque se pone de manifiesto la necesidad de que la investigación que se desarrolle en nuestros contextos aporte pruebas y elementos que favorezcan su implementa- ción. Aplicar prácticas docentes y de planificación en la enseñanza universitaria con bases en el diseño universal podría contribuir a superar, eliminar o evitar en un futuro barreras en el aprendizaje, no solo limitadoras del progreso de las personas con discapacidad, sino también del conjunto del alumnado. Asimismo, las conclusiones de este trabajo plantean aplicaciones y estimaciones de nuevas muestras empíricas como puntos de partida para futuras y posibles determinaciones de enfoques conceptuales.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): Development and Evaluation of Vibrating Kelly Ball Test (VKelly Test) for the Workability of Concrete, 2015

Due to the low workability of slipform concrete mixtures, the science of rheology is not strictly applicable for such concrete. However, the concept of rheological behavior may still be considered useful. A novel workability test method (Vibrating Kelly Ball or VKelly test) that would quantitatively assess the responsiveness of a dry concrete mixture to vibration, as is desired of a mixture suitable for slipform paving, was developed and evaluated. The objectives of this test method are for it to be cost-effective, portable, and repeatable while reporting the suitability of a mixture for use in slipform paving. The work to evaluate and refine the test was conducted in three phases: 1. Assess whether the VKelly test can signal variations in laboratory mixtures with a range of materials and proportions 2. Run the VKelly test in the field at a number of construction sites 3. Validate the VKelly test results using the Box Test developed at Oklahoma State University for slipform paving concrete The data collected to date indicate that the VKelly test appears to be suitable for assessing a mixture’s response to vibration (workability) with a low multiple operator variability. A unique parameter, VKelly Index, is introduced and defined that seems to indicate that a mixture is suitable for slipform paving when it falls in the range of 0.8 to 1.2 in./√s.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): An Innovative Approach To Proportioning Concrete Mixtures, TPF-5(205), 2015

Mixture proportioning is routinely a matter of using a recipe based on a previously produced concrete, rather than adjusting the proportions based on the needs of the mixture and the locally available materials. As budgets grow tighter and increasing attention is being paid to sustainability metrics, greater attention is beginning to be focused on making mixtures that are more efficient in their usage of materials yet do not compromise engineering performance. Therefore, a performance-based mixture proportioning method is needed to provide the desired concrete properties for a given project specification. The proposed method should be user friendly, easy to apply in practice, and flexible in terms of allowing a wide range of material selection. The objective of this study is to further develop an innovative performance-based mixture proportioning method by analyzing the relationships between the selected mix characteristics and their corresponding effects on tested properties. The proposed method will provide step-by-step instructions to guide the selection of required aggregate and paste systems based on the performance requirements. Although the provided guidance in this report is primarily for concrete pavements, the same approach can be applied to other concrete applications as well.

Rethinking study and management of agricultural systems for policy design

There is a concern that agriculture will no longer be able to meet, on a global scale, the growing demand for food. Facing such a challenge requires new patterns of thinking in the context of complexity and sustainability sciences. This paper, focused on the social dimension of the study and management of agricultural systems, suggests that rethinking the study of agricultural systems entails analyzing them as complex socio-ecological systems, as well as considering the differing thinking patterns of diverse stakeholders. The intersubjective nature of knowledge, as studied by different philosophical schools, needs to be better integrated into the study and management of agricultural systems than it is done so far, forcing us to accept that there are no simplistic solutions, and to seek a better understanding of the social dimension of agriculture. Different agriculture related problems require different policy and institutional approaches. Finally, the intersubjective nature of knowledge asks for the visualization of different framings and the power relations taking place in the decision-making process. Rethinking management of agricultural systems implies that policy making should be shaped by different principles: learning, flexibility, adaptation, scale-matching, participation, diversity enhancement and precaution hold the promise to significantly improve current standard management procedures.

Application of Multi-SNP Approaches Bayesian LASSO and AUC-RF to Detect Main Effects of Inflammatory-Gene Variants Associated with Bladder Cancer Risk

The relationship between inflammation and cancer is well established in several tumor types, including bladder cancer. We performed an association study between 886 inflammatory-gene variants and bladder cancer risk in 1,047 cases and 988 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer (SBC)/EPICURO Study. A preliminary exploration with the widely used univariate logistic regression approach did not identify any significant SNP after correcting for multiple testing. We further applied two more comprehensive methods to capture the complexity of bladder cancer genetic susceptibility: Bayesian Threshold LASSO (BTL), a regularized regression method, and AUC-Random Forest, a machine-learning algorithm. Both approaches explore the joint effect of markers. BTL analysis identified a signature of 37 SNPs in 34 genes showing an association with bladder cancer. AUC-RF detected an optimal predictive subset of 56 SNPs. 13 SNPs were identified by both methods in the total population. Using resources from the Texas Bladder Cancer study we were able to replicate 30% of the SNPs assessed. The associations between inflammatory SNPs and bladder cancer were reexamined among non-smokers to eliminate the effect of tobacco, one of the strongest and most prevalent environmental risk factor for this tumor. A 9 SNP-signature was detected by BTL. Here we report, for the first time, a set of SNP in inflammatory genes jointly associated with bladder cancer risk. These results highlight the importance of the complex structure of genetic susceptibility associated with cancer risk.

Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Remote collaborative multi-user informal learning experiences: design and evaluation

This paper presents a customizable system used to develop a collaborative multi-user problem solving game. It addresses the increasing demand for appealing informal learning experiences in museum-like settings. The system facilitates remote collaboration by allowing groups of learners tocommunicate through a videoconferencing system and by allowing them to simultaneously interact through a shared multi-touch interactive surface. A user study with 20 user groups indicates that the game facilitates collaboration between local and remote groups of learners. The videoconference and multitouch surface acted as communication channels, attracted students’ interest, facilitated engagement, and promoted inter- and intra-group collaboration—favoring intra-group collaboration. Our findings suggest that augmentingvideoconferencing systems with a shared multitouch space offers newpossibilities and scenarios for remote collaborative environments and collaborative learning.