Co-infection and risk factors of tuberculosis in a Mexican HIV+ population

INTRODUCTION: The situation of tuberculosis (TB) is being modified by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is increasing the occurrence of new cases and the generation of drug resistant strains, affecting not only the people infected with HIV, but also their close contacts and the general population, conforming a serious public health concern. However, the magnitudes of the factors associated to this co-infection differ considerably in relation to the population groups and geographical areas. METHODS: In order to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for the co-infection of tuberculosis (TB) in a population with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV+) in the Southeast of Mexico, we made the analysis of clinical and epidemiological variables and the diagnosis of tuberculosis by isolation of mycobacteria from respiratory samples. RESULTS: From the 147 HIV+ individuals analyzed, 12 were culture positive; this shows a prevalence of 8% for the co-infection. The only variable found with statistical significance for the co-infection was the number of CD4-T < 200 cells/mm³, OR 13 (95%, CI 2-106 vs 12-109). CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge this is the first report describing the factors associated with tuberculosis co -infection with HIV in a population from Southern Mexico. The low number of CD4 T-cells was the only variable associated with the TB co-infection and the rest of the variables provide scenarios that require specific and particular interventions for this population group.

Dengue: clinical forms and risk groups in a high incidence city in the southeastern region of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The article describes the epidemiologic profile of dengue cases in Vitória, the capital of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2009, aimed at identifying risk groups regarding the incidence and severity of the disease. METHODS: Confirmed cases of dengue among city residents during ten years were classified as dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome and dengue with complications, and analyzed according to sex, age, race-color and education. RESULTS: The proportion of dengue cases was highest among women aged 20 to 29 years-old and similar between whites and blacks. A gradual decrease occurred in the percentage of dengue cases in the population aged 15 years-old or more, in the historical series of 10 years, and a growing increase in individuals less than 15 years-old, showing statistical significance. The fatality rate ranged from zero to 0.3% for all forms of dengue and from 0.2% to 18.2% for severe forms. CONCLUSIONS: The profile of those affected by the disease in the municipality is similar to those affected in Brazil. The increasing number of cases in individuals under 15 years-old corroborates the results of recent studies in other Brazilian municipalities.

Epidemiological factors related to the transmission risk of Trypanosoma cruzi in a Quilombola community, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This work was an epidemiological investigation of the risk of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the rural Quilombola community of Furnas do Dionízio, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: Of the 71 animals examined, seven were captured (two opossums, Didelphis albiventris; four rats, Rattus rattus; and one nine-banded armadillo, Dasypus novemcinctus) and 64 were domestic (one canine, Canis familiaris; five pigs, Sus scrofa; two bovines, Bos taurus; five caprines, Capra sp.; and 51 ovines, Ovis aries). Parasitological tests were performed to detect parasites in the blood and to identify the morphology of flagellates. These methods included fresh examinations, buffy coat tests and blood cultures. Molecular analysis of DNA for identification of trypanosomatids was performed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with primers S35 and S36. RESULTS: The parasitological tests showed flagellates in an opossum and two cattle. The molecular tests showed DNA from T. cruzi in an opossum and a pig. Triatoma sordida was the only triatomine species found in the community, and it colonized households (four specimens) and the surrounding areas (124 specimens). Twenty-three specimens tested positive for flagellates, which were subsequently identified as T. cruzi by PCR. CONCLUSIONS: Data analysis demonstrated that T. cruzi has a peridomestic life cycle that involves both domestic and wild mammals.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Risk factors for Leishmania chagasi infection in an endemic area in Raposa, State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Infection with Leishmania chagasi is the most common clinical presentation for visceral leishmaniaisis in endemic areas. The municipality of Raposa is an endemic area in State of Maranhão, Brazil, and have had registration cases of visceral leishmaniasis disease. For this reason, a cross- sectional study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for infection with L. chagasi detected by Montenegro skin test. METHODS: The sample comprised 96% of the inhabitants of the villages of Maresia, Pantoja, and Marisol located in the municipality of Raposa, corresponding to 1,359 subjects. Data were collected using a questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association between the variables studied and infection of L. chagasi. RESULTS: The variables associated with infection upon nonadjusted analysis were a straw roof, mud walls, floors of beaten earth, presence of sand flies inside or outside of the dwelling, and bathing outdoors. Adjusted analysis showed that the presence of sand flies inside/outside the dwelling was a risk factor, and age younger than 10 years was a protective factor against asymptomatic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the extent to which precarious living conditions of the population strengthen the epidemiological chain of visceral leishmaniasis.

Diagnosis of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi infection in dogs and the relationship with environmental and sanitary aspects in the municipality of Palmas, state of Tocantins, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to identify the presence of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi infection in dogs in the City of Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, using the PCR technique to list the hot spots of infected dogs in the city and associate their occurrence to significant environmental changes at capture sites. METHODS: DNA was extracted from blood of dogs, and the PCR were performed with primers RV1/RV2. After screening the population studied, the regions of the city that had the highest occurrence of canine infection were detected. These sites were visited, and ecological parameters denoting anthropogenic disturbance were evaluated. RESULTS: Some important features were listed in the regions visited, such as low urbanization, lack of public collection of sewage, limited garbage collection, vacant lots with tall vegetation, decaying organic matter, and, most importantly, the occurrence of stray dogs and poultry in homes. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology for screening the population was very efficient, especially in evaluating a large number of individuals in a short time, with a high degree of automation. The results indicate an association between the observed parameters and the occurrence of infection in dogs. The model presented in the city is ideal for studies of disease progression and expansion and for the evaluation of control measures adopted for canine VL.

Risk parity: True versus naive approach

This paper studies the performance of two different Risk Parity strategies, one from Maillard (2008) and a “naïve” that was already used by market practitioners, against traditional strategies. The tests will compare different regions (US, UK, Germany and Japan) since 1991 to 2013, and will use different ways of volatility. The main findings are that Risk Parity outperforms any traditional strategy, and the “true” (by Maillard) has considerable better results than the “naïve” when using historical volatility, while using EWMA there are significant differences.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: risk factors and clinical outcome in non-intensive-care units

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is spread out in hospitals across different regions of the world and is regarded as the major agent of nosocomial infections, causing infections such as skin and soft tissue pneumonia and sepsis. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for methicillin-resistance in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (BSI) and the predictive factors for death. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of fifty-one patients presenting bacteraemia due to S. aureus between September 2006 and September 2008 was analysed. Staphylococcu aureus samples were obtained from blood cultures performed by clinical hospital microbiology laboratory from the Uberlândia Federal University. Methicillinresistance was determined by growth on oxacillin screen agar and antimicrobial susceptibility by means of the disk diffusion method. RESULTS: We found similar numbers of MRSA (56.8%) and methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) (43.2%) infections, and the overall hospital mortality ratio was 47%, predominantly in MRSA group (70.8% vs. 29.2%) (p=0.05). Age (p=0.02) was significantly higher in MRSA patients as also was the use of central venous catheter (p=0.02). The use of two or more antimicrobial agents (p=0.03) and the length of hospital stay prior to bacteraemia superior to seven days (p=0.006) were associated with mortality. High odds ratio value was observed in cardiopathy as comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several risk factors associated with MRSA and MSSA infection, the use of two or more antimicrobial agents was the unique independent variable associated with mortality.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

Evidence of a higher prevalence of HPV infection in HTLV-1-infected women: a cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION:HTLV-1 infection increases susceptibility to other infections. Few studies have addressed the co-infection between HPV and HTLV-1 and the immune response involved in this interaction. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of cervical HPV infection in HTLV-1-infected women and to establish the risk factors involved in this co-infection. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in Salvador, Brazil, between September 2005 and December 2008, involving 50 HTLV-1-infected women from the HTLV Reference Center and 40 uninfected patients from gynecological clinic, both at the Bahiana School of Medicine. HPV infection was assessed using hybrid capture. HTLV-1 proviral load was quantified using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: The mean age of HTLV-1-infected women (38 ± 10 years) was similar to that of the control group (36 ± 13 years). The prevalence of HPV infection was 44% in the HTLV-1-infected group and 22.5% in uninfected women (p = 0.03). HTLV-1-infected women had lower mean age at onset of sexual life (17 ± 3 years versus 19 ± 3 years; p = 0.03) and greater number of lifetime partners compared with the control group (4 ± 3 versus 2 ± 1; p < 0.01). In the group of HTLV-1-infected patients, there was neither difference in HTLV-1 proviral load between HPV-infected women and the uninfected. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HPV infection was higher in HTLV-1-infected women. Further studies should be performed to evaluate the progression of this co-infection.

Liver fibrosis progression in HIV/hepatitis C virus coinfected patients with normal aminotransferases levels

INTRODUCTION: Approximately 30% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) monoinfected patients present persistently normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels. Most of these patients have a slow progression of liver fibrosis. Studies have demonstrated the rate of liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C virus-human immunodeficiency virus (HCV-HIV) coinfected patients is faster than in patients infected only by HCV. Few studies have evaluated the histological features of chronic hepatitis C in HIV-infected patients with normal ALT levels. METHODS: HCV-HIV coinfected patients (HCV-RNA and anti-HIV positive) with known time of HCV infection (intravenous drugs users) were selected. Patients with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive or hepatitis C treatment before liver biopsy were excluded. Patients were considered to have a normal ALT levels if they had at least 3 normal determinations in the previous 6 months prior to liver biopsy. All patients were submitted to liver biopsy and METAVIR scale was used. RESULTS: Of 50 studied patients 40 (80%) were males. All patients were treated with antiretroviral therapy. The ALT levels were normal in 13 (26%) patients. HCV-HIV co-infected patients with normal ALT levels had presented means of the liver fibrosis stages (0.77±0.44 versus 1.86±1.38; p<0.001) periportal inflammatory activity (0.62±0.77 versus 2.24±1.35; p<0.001) and liver fibrosis progression rate (0.058±0.043 fibrosis unit/year versus 0.118±0.102 fibrosis unit/year) significantly lower as compared to those with elevated ALT. CONCLUSIONS: HCV-HIV coinfected patients with persistently normal ALTs showed slower progression of liver fibrosis. In these patients the development of liver cirrhosis is improbable.

HAART: a risk factor for development of porphyria cutanea tarda?

Porphyria cutanea tarda (PCT) is caused by inherited or acquired partial deficiency of the uroporphyrinogen-decarboxylase (Uro-D) enzyme activity. It is the most common form of porphyria. The main triggering factors to the development of porphyria cutanea tarda are alcohol, hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus. There are several reports of PCT associated with drugs, among them, antiretroviral therapy. We describe three HIV-positive patients, which showed photosensitivity as well as the emergence of tense blisters on sun-exposed areas during the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and discuss the possibility of PCT after the use of these drugs by those patients.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.