968 resultados para Previsão econômica - Brasil


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The piles are one of the most important types of solution adopted for the foundation of buildings. They are responsible for transmitting to the soil in deepe r and resistant layers loads from structures. The interaction of the foundation element with the soil is a very important variable, making indispensable your domain in order to determine the strength of the assembly and establish design criteria for each c ase of application of the pile. In this research analyzes were performed f rom experiments load tests for precast concrete piles and inve stigations of soil of type SPT, a study was performed for obtaining the ultimate load capacity of the foundation through methods extrapolation of load - settlement curve , semi - empirical and theoretic . After that, were realized comparisons between the different methods used for two types of soil a granular behavior and other cohesive. For obtaining soil paramet ers to be used i n the methods were established empirical correlations with the standard penetration number (NSPT). The charge - settlement curves of the piles are also analyzed. In the face of established comparisons was indicated the most reliable semiempirical method Déco urt - Quaresma as the most reliable for estimating the tensile strength for granular and cohesive soils. Meanwhile, among the methods studied extrapolation is recommended method of Van der Veen as the most appropriate for predicting the tensile strength.

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Equality as a principle and as a legal rule, integrates brazilian constitutional order since the Constitution of 1891, constituting the target always be sought, built and promoted by the state and society as a whole. Also e xs urgem for protection of equality and non - discrimination, declarations and international treaties, mostly ratified by Brazil. The international protection of human beings with intrinsic value began in the UN Declaration of 1948, which declared the equality of all men in rights and dignity, followed by more specific international documents, in a growing movement of ratification of international standards protection of human rights occurs after the atrocities during the Second World War. Within the Internation al Labour Organisation (ILO), the theme of equality and non - discrimination in employment relationships integrates one of its main conventions, to No. 111, ratified by Brazil since 1965, which aims to eliminate discrimination in respect of employment and oc cupation. In this context, lies the collective bargaining work, with her normative instruments arising from the collective agreement and the agreement recognized constitutionally and with full ability to create and establish standards and conditions for de tails of suitable work for each occupational category and economic having the unions the power and duty to use them as a means of effecting the postulates of equality and non - discrimination in employment relationships, filling gaps in state law and / or su pplementing it, molding them to existing events in the capital - job. Driven by greater freedom contained in the Constitution of 1988, trading, and with it, the private collective autonomy, in fact, have included the issue of equality and the right to differ ence between clauses created, scheduled to affirmative action and sealing exclusionary conduct, and reported some positive outcomes, such as greater diversity in work and training followed by admission of persons with disabilities environment. These attitu des of union entities and employers should be broadened because corroborate the fulfillment of constitutional requirements for compliance with the international declarations, adapting them to the reality of labor relations and contributing to the construct ion of equality in the pursuit of social justice with the recognition of the right to be different with respect to the inherent dignity of the human condition.

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The demand side growth accounting studies the demand aggregate component contributions in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Traditionally, international and national organizations that uses the traditional method for calculating such contributions. However, this method does not take into account the effect the induction of imports by the various components of aggregate demand on the calculation of these. As an alternative to this method are presented others studies that consider this effect, as the alternative method proposed by Lara (2013), the attribution method, proposed by Kranendonk and Verbruggen (2005) and Hoekstra and van der Helm (2010), and the method the sraffian supermultiplier, by Freitas and Dweck (2013). Was made a summary of these methods, demonstrating the similarities and differences between them. Also, in the aim to contribute to the study of the subject was developed the “method of distribution of imports” that aims to distribute imports for the various components of aggregate demand, through the information set forth in the input-output matrices and tables of resources and uses. Were accounted the contributions to the growth of macroeconomic aggregates for Brazil from 2001 to 2009 using the method of distribution, and realized comparison with the traditional method, understanding the reasons for the differences in contributions. Later was done comparisons with all the methods presented in this work, between the calculated contributions to the growth of the components of aggregate demand and the domestic and external sectors. Was verified that the methods that exist in the literature was not enough to deal with this question, and given the alternatives for contributions to the growth presented throughout this work, it is believed that the method of distribution provides the best estimates for the account of contributions by aggregate demand sector. In particular, the main advantage of this method to the others is the breakdown of the contribution of imports, separated by aggregate demand component, which allows the analysis of contribution of each component to GDP growth. Thus, this type of analysis helps to study the pattern of growth of the Brazilian economy, not just the theoretical point of view, but also empirical and basis for the decision to economic policies

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The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

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The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

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The umbu tree (Spondias tuberosa Arruda) is a fruit native to the northeast of Brazil with great economic, social and ecological importance for the northeastern semi-arid region. Despite its role, the umbu tree has suffered negative pressure thanks to cluttered extractivism and to negative selection of its fruits, which as the deforestation and the dormancy of seeds contribute to the decrease of its production year after year, making necessary studies that contribute to the improvement of this specie and its conservation. Given the risks to the conservation of the specie and its usefulness to the population, the association between plant biotechnology, for being a tool that can be used to increase its production. and the perception of gathering communities, by valuing the point of view and the knowledge of the population, can facilitate its conservation. This work aimed to develop methods of propagation for umbu tree as well as contribute to its conservation by using biotechnology, with specific objectives to contribute to the conservation of this species; determine concentrations of BAP and ANA in the formation of buds; testing the efficiency of different substrates and concentrations of gibberellic acid on germination in vitro and ex vitro, as well as capture the perception of families in communities that engage in the gathering of umbu. To study the germination, the seeds were inoculated in different substrates (vermiculite, vermiculite + clay, clay, clay + manure and manure + vermiculite) and in different concentrations of gibberellic acid (0 mg, 250 g and 500 mg). For the formation of buds BAP to 0.1 mg-1 was associated with different concentrations of ANA (0.2; 0.4; 0.8mg.L-1). The study of perception was conducted by applying semi-structured questionnaire with Malhada Vermelha community. The experiments resulted in vermiculite and concentration of 500 mg gibberellic acid as the best for germination. The association of 0.1 mg.L-1 of BAP to 0.2 mg.L-1 of ANA provided better formation of buds. As to the application of questionnaires, they revealed that the population understands the decreased amount of umbu plants and umbu fruit in the region, as well as shows concern for its conservation.

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This scientific investigation begins with the recognition of the authorization granted by the Constitutional Legislator to the State for, relativizing its neutrality towards the private sector, intervene in the behavior of economic agents, through different means, including fiscal incentives and tax increases in order to achieve the objectives and directives of the Federal Constitution, as well as achieve the rights and guarantees also described in the Federal Constitution. Demonstrates, however, that this intervention in the private sector has the power to generate both salutary reflections as perverse and divorced goals from what was established by the Federal Constitution and Multilateral Agreements and this is the basis that justifies the relevance of the study: because of the urgency to provide a thorough analysis of the phenomenon of state intervention in the Economic Order, given the importance of its impacts, both for citizens' lives, as well as for the maintenance of the State established as it is nowadays. From this premise, this research examines the issue of tax policies adopted in the country, focusing on tax incentives, comparing its use with the principles of the Economic Order and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade - GATT analyzing whether these have been respected or if Brazil adopted unjustified protectionist measures. From this context, this research approximated different branches of the law, developed through literature review in areas such as constitutional law, economic law, tax law, financial law and law and economics. This study verifies the motivations and objectives that underlie the adopted justifications for the use of tax incentives, as well as its results, seeking to empirically answer if its use is reasonable and consistent with the terms enshrined in the Federal Constitution of 1988 and GATT. The answer to this research question will be sought through doctrinal analysis, jurisprudence and hard cases. Thus, the study begins with the historical evolution of extrafiscality, analyzes the principles that should guide the behavior of economic agents. Subsequently analyzes the legal regime of tax incentives and the results achieved by hard cases in which the tax policies with extrafiscal nature were adopted in order to demonstrate the positive and negative consequences arising from the adoption of this type of benefit

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This dissertation analyses the Brazilian Supreme Court’s judgement in the Non-compliance Action of the Fundamental Precept 132/RJ and in the Direct Action of Unconstitutionality 4277/DF, which created in the country the same-sex civil union. In This decision, the STF interpreted according to the constitution Article 1.723 of the Civil Code, invoking several fundamentals reaffirmed in the Constitution. From all these laws invoked by the Supreme Court to support the pretorian creation, the content of consitutional Law regarding equality is the only that corresponds, and it is sufficient to evidence the necessity of the creation, by legislator, of the institute for civil rights, since the Constitution forbids distinctions that is not expressly provided for in the Constitution (Art. 3º, IV, of Federal Constitution). In this way, Article 226, § 3º is not an exception capable of satisfying the condition of the consitutional foresight because although it protect, according its content only the civil union “between the man and the woman”, it is not able to forbid the creation, by legislator, of another kinds of families, including the same-sex civil union. As such, the reasoning, now legitimate according to the legislator, is not support the creation of institute by Constitutional Court, because the Court may enforce the Law, interpreting in the purviews allowed by the legal text and its constitutionality. In regard to the civil union of individuos of the same sex, the Court could not deduce that such union was implied by Law, like the interpretation according to the Constitution given by judges, on grounds of semantic purviews of the words man and woman, existents in both articles. The Court could not created it either, exceeding the legal system role. So, upon the institute creation, the STF, exceeded two limits: the interpretation and Law enforcement.

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This study investigates the religious group named 'shoe wearing carmelites' (or Calced Carmelites) from Brazil´s Order of Carmo, from 1580 until 1800, in the Capitaincy of Bahia de Todos os Santos (Recôncavo, city of Salvador and Sergipe) and in the Capitaincy of Pernambuco (Alagoas, Pernambuco and Itamaracá). The study does not include the religious group known as the 'Reformed' Carmelites from Goiana, Recife and Paraíba convents. The Order of Carmo is a religious order from the Roman Catholic Church, founded in the 12th century. By the 16th century they were split into 'Calced' and 'Discalced'. In 1580 the Calced ones came from Portugal to Brazil, built convents in urban areas and were able to acquire slaves, farms and other assets. As any other religious order, the Carmelites had their modus operandi. This work emphasizes the way they operated or acted in the city, either individually or in association with other Carmelite religious foundations elsewhere (networking). Their action affected, although indirectly, the building of some specific aspects of the architecture, the city and the territory in colonial Brazil. The main objective of this study is to demonstrate the impact of the Calced Carmelites from Bahia and Pernambuco upon the territory of colonial Brazil, which is analyzed according to three scales: 1) the region or interurban; 2) the city or intraurban; 3) the building or the architecture. The research employs the comparative method of analysis, especially for the architectural scale. The work demonstrates that although not acting as architects or urbanists, the Carmelites contributed to the formation of the colonial territory of Brazil, behaving as a well-articulated and hierarchized religious network, from an economic and social perspective. Moreover, they influenced the emergence and growth of several colonial urban nuclei, from Bahia to Pernambuco, mainly in the surroundings of their religious buildings. Finally, it is very clear this religious order’s contribution to colonial architecture, as it can be seen by the architectural characteristics of the convents and churches which have been analyzed, many of which still stand in a good state of conservation nowadays.

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The global energy crisis triggered the possibility of unconventional hydrocarbons exploration and production, culminating in the US energy revolution as well as making other countries interested in the development of these natural resources. The justification for this research comes from Brazil's interest in the use of hydraulic fracturing techniques in unconventional resources since the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) organized the 12th acquisition process and published the Resolution no. 21 of April 10, 2014. The conflict between economic viability and the social and environmental damage from exploration and production of unconventional hydrocarbons in Brazil resulted in the search for a legal solution that would consider the economic, social and environmental interests. The main purpose here is to analyze the regulation of unconventional oil exploration and production in Brazil in order to show lack of regulatory instruments so far. The specific objectives are to investigate how the lack of effective regulation may ultimately prevent the development itself, analyze the importance of systematization of a new regulatory tool for ensuring legal security and energy, identify the key negative environmental and social impacts, and suggest possibilities approaches within the new regulatory framework. The research methodology stands out the hypothetico-deductive model as approach, and the comparative model as procedural method. Moreover, the research techniques used here are performance of a theoretical and descriptive questioning over literature search, analysis of Brazilian standardization and case laws, and a brief comparative study, in order to provide suggested approaches for a new regulatory framework.

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The global energy crisis triggered the possibility of unconventional hydrocarbons exploration and production, culminating in the US energy revolution as well as making other countries interested in the development of these natural resources. The justification for this research comes from Brazil's interest in the use of hydraulic fracturing techniques in unconventional resources since the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) organized the 12th acquisition process and published the Resolution no. 21 of April 10, 2014. The conflict between economic viability and the social and environmental damage from exploration and production of unconventional hydrocarbons in Brazil resulted in the search for a legal solution that would consider the economic, social and environmental interests. The main purpose here is to analyze the regulation of unconventional oil exploration and production in Brazil in order to show lack of regulatory instruments so far. The specific objectives are to investigate how the lack of effective regulation may ultimately prevent the development itself, analyze the importance of systematization of a new regulatory tool for ensuring legal security and energy, identify the key negative environmental and social impacts, and suggest possibilities approaches within the new regulatory framework. The research methodology stands out the hypothetico-deductive model as approach, and the comparative model as procedural method. Moreover, the research techniques used here are performance of a theoretical and descriptive questioning over literature search, analysis of Brazilian standardization and case laws, and a brief comparative study, in order to provide suggested approaches for a new regulatory framework.

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In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

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In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

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The fish, Hoplias malabaricus (Osteichthyes: Erythrinidae) and armored catfish, Hypostomus pusarum (Loricariidae) are of freshwater origin from the neotropical region, and are considered ecologically and economically of important. This work investigated the trophic strategies, the morphology and histology of the digestive tract of these fish captured from the Marechal Dutra reservoir, Acari, the semiarid region of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. A total of 133 individuals of H. malabaricus and 118 specimens of H. pusarum were analyzed. The two study species occupy different levels in the food chain and spatial distribution in the water column of the reservoir. The results of this study are presented in the form of four scientific papers. The first article describes the morphology and histology of the digestive tract and the feeding habits of H. malabaricus (Bloch, 1794). This fish has a short intestine, with an intestinal coefficient of 0.72 ± 0.09. The dietary importance index indicates that H. malabaricus feeds preferentially on animal matter, especially on fish (72.8%) and prawns (27.2%). The histology of its digestive tract confirms the carnivorous feeding habit. The second article discusses about the pioneering work on the feeding strategy and the characterization of anatomy and histology of the digestive tract of H. pusarum. The intestine of this fish is long, with an intestinal coefficient of 10.8±0.7. The dietary importance index indicates that H. pusarum feeds preferentially on organic matter in decomposition (88.7%) and on filamentous microalgae and diatoms (11.3%). The third article compares the morphological aspects of the digestive tract of H. malabaricus and H. pusarum, in relation to their food habits. The arrangement of the digestive organs in both species is directly related to the shape of the peritoneal cavity and the form of the body. The short intestine of H. malabaricus and the long intestine of H. pusarum are associated with their feeding habits. The morphology of the digestive tracts of H. malabaricus and H. pusarum confirm their food habits, carnivorous and detritivorous / herbivorous, respectively. The fourth article discusses the food and reproductive aspects (length and weight, length-weight relationship, type of growth and sex ratio) of H. pusarum. This species has a negatively allometric growth, with the predominance of females in the sampled population. H. malabaricus inhabits the pelagic environment and is a carnivore, while H. pusarum, lives in the benthic environment and is characterized as a detritivore/herbivore. Each species studied shows a very different diet, without trophic competition between them. The morphological and anatomical structures of the digestive tract reflect their feeding strategy.

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Between 2003 and 2014 Brazil has increased exports by 52%, increased the formal employment and paid employment by 19% and reduced multidimensional poverty by 42%. The purpose of this work is to test the hypothesis that there is a Brazilian Growth Virtuous Circle where these three variables would be connected in order to increase exports and reduce poverty through the salaries transfer of funds. The construction of the hypothesis is made for Export Industry through ideas Verdoorn, Kaldor and Thirlwall presenting the export industry as an engine of economic growth. To present employment acting directly on economic growth is used Wage Led Rowthorn approach. The Capability Approach of Amartya Sen is used to understand the Multidimensional Poverty. The hypothesis was tested using data from the National Household Survey and Aliceweb between 2003 and 2014 with the use of the Generalized Method of Moments and the generation of elasticities between export and employment, employment and poverty, and export and poverty.