New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model

48 p.

A dynamic CGE modelling approach for analyzing trade-offs in climate change policy options: the case of Green Climate Fund

38 p.

Climate Change and Its Socioeconomic Importance

25 p.

Aquatic insects as target organisms for the study of effects of projected climate change in the British Isles

The chief objectives of this brief review are to collate and synthesise quantitative information on the temperature requirements of aquatic insects, and to identify species, and groups of species, that could be useful indicators of climate change and predictors of the ecological effects of change. It arose from the first phase of the Terrestrial Initiative in Global Environmental Research (TIGER), a five-year, NERC Community Programme on the role of the terrestrial biosphere in the science of global change. This phase involved the identification of criteria for selecting species suitable for the study of effects of projected climate change in the British Isles. Field and laboratory studies are reviewed, and criteria for selection of species for future research are suggested. The literature survey shows that no species of aquatic insect can be found to meet all three criteria, but information on the British stoneflies and their eggs already satisfies two of them.

1976 step in the Pacific climate: forty environmental changes between 1968-1975 and 1977-1984

Examination of 40 time series of multidisciplinary environmental variables from the Pacific Ocean and the Americas, collected in 1968 to 1984, demonstrated the remarkable consistency of a major climate-related, step-like change in 1976. To combine the 40 variables (e.g., air and water temperatures, Southern Oscillation, chlorophyll, geese, salmon, crabs, glaciers, atmospheric dust, coral, carbon dioxide, winds, ice cover, Bering Strait transport) into a single time series, standard variants of individual annual values (subtracting the mean and dividing by a standard deviation) were averaged. Analysis of the resulting time series showed that the single step in 1976, separating the 1968-1975 period from the 1977-1984 period, accounted for 89% of variance within the composite time series. Apparently, one of the Earth's large ecosystems occasionally undergoes large abrupt shifts.

Climate change and its risk reduction by mangrove ecosystem of Bangladesh

Climate change is amongst the most dreaded problems of the new millennium. Bangladesh is a coastal country bounded by Bay of Bengal on its southern part and here natural disasters are an ongoing part of human life. This paper discusses about the possible impact of climate change through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and sea level rise in the coastal community of Bangladesh and how they cope with these extreme events by the help of mangrove ecosystem. Both qualitative and quantitative discussions are made by collected data from different research work those are conducted in Bangladesh. Mangrove ecosystem provides both goods and services for coastal community, helps to improve livelihood options and protect them from natural disaster by providing variety of environmental support

The variations and climatic significance of D/H ratios in the carbon-bound hydrogen of cellulose in trees

The σD values of nitrated cellulose from a variety of trees covering a wide geographic range have been measured. These measurements have been used to ascertain which factors are likely to cause σD variations in cellulose C-H hydrogen.

It is found that a primary source of tree σD variation is the σD variation of the environmental precipitation. Superimposed on this are isotopic variations caused by the transpiration of the leaf water incorporated by the tree. The magnitude of this transpiration effect appears to be related to relative humidity.

Within a single tree, it is found that the hydrogen isotope variations which occur for a ring sequence in one radial direction may not be exactly the same as those which occur in a different direction. Such heterogeneities appear most likely to occur in trees with asymmetric ring patterns that contain reaction wood. In the absence of reaction wood such heterogeneities do not seem to occur. Thus, hydrogen isotope analyses of tree ring sequences should be performed on trees which do not contain reaction wood.

Comparisons of tree σD variations with variations in local climate are performed on two levels: spatial and temporal. It is found that the σD values of 20 North American trees from a wide geographic range are reasonably well-correlated with the corresponding average annual temperature. The correlation is similar to that observed for a comparison of the σD values of annual precipitation of 11 North American sites with annual temperature. However, it appears that this correlation is significantly disrupted by trees which grew on poorly drained sites such as those in stagnant marshes. Therefore, site selection may be important in choosing trees for climatic interpretation of σD values, although proper sites do not seem to be uncommon.

The measurement of σD values in 5-year samples from the tree ring sequences of 13 trees from 11 North American sites reveals a variety of relationships with local climate. As it was for the spatial σD vs climate comparison, site selection is also apparently important for temporal tree σD vs climate comparisons. Again, it seems that poorly-drained sites are to be avoided. For nine trees from different "well-behaved" sites, it was found that the local climatic variable best related to the σD variations was not the same for all sites.

Two of these trees showed a strong negative correlation with the amount of local summer precipitation. Consideration of factors likely to influence the isotopic composition of summer rain suggests that rainfall intensity may be important. The higher the intensity, the lower the σD value. Such an effect might explain the negative correlation of σD vs summer precipitation amount for these two trees. A third tree also exhibited a strong correlation with summer climate, but in this instance it was a positive correlation of σD with summer temperature.

The remaining six trees exhibited the best correlation between σD values and local annual climate. However, in none of these six cases was it annual temperature that was the most important variable. In fact annual temperature commonly showed no relationship at all with tree σD values. Instead, it was found that a simple mass balance model incorporating two basic assumptions yielded parameters which produced the best relationships with tree σD values. First, it was assumed that the σD values of these six trees reflected the σD values of annual precipitation incorporated by these trees. Second, it was assumed that the σD value of the annual precipitation was a weighted average of two seasonal isotopic components: summer and winter. Mass balance equations derived from these assumptions yielded combinations of variables that commonly showed a relationship with tree σD values where none had previously been discerned.

It was found for these "well-behaved" trees that not all sample intervals in a σD vs local climate plot fell along a well-defined trend. These departures from the local σD VS climate norm were defined as "anomalous". Some of these anomalous intervals were common to trees from different locales. When such widespread commonalty of an anomalous interval occurred, it was observed that the interval corresponded to an interval in which drought had existed in the North American Great Plains.

Consequently, there appears to be a combination of both local and large scale climatic information in the σD variations of tree cellulose C-H hydrogen.

Heated aquatic microcosms for climate change experiments

Ponds and shallow lakes are likely to be strongly affected by climate change, and by increase in environmental temperature in particular. Hydrological regimes and nutrient cycling may be altered, plant and animal communities may undergo changes in both composition and dynamics, and long-term and difficult to reverse switches between alternative stable equilibria may occur. A thorough understanding of the potential effects of increased temperature on ponds and shallow lakes is desirable because these ecosystems are of immense importance throughout the world as sources of drinking water, and for their amenity and conservation value. This understanding can only come through experimental studies in which the effects of different temperature regimes are compared. This paper reports design details and operating characteristics of a recently constructed experimental facility consisting of 48 aquatic microcosms which mimic the pond and shallow lake environment. Thirty-two of the microcosms can be heated and regulated to simulate climate change scenarios, including those predicted for the UK. The authors also summarise the current and future experimental uses of the microcosms.

Storm track response to perturbations in climate

This thesis advances our understanding of midlatitude storm tracks and how they respond to perturbations in the climate system. The midlatitude storm tracks are regions of maximal turbulent kinetic energy in the atmosphere. Through them, the bulk of the atmospheric transport of energy, water vapor, and angular momentum occurs in midlatitudes. Therefore, they are important regulators of climate, controlling basic features such as the distribution of surface temperatures, precipitation, and winds in midlatitudes. Storm tracks are robustly projected to shift poleward in global-warming simulations with current climate models. Yet the reasons for this shift have remained unclear. Here we show that this shift occurs even in extremely idealized (but still three-dimensional) simulations of dry atmospheres. We use these simulations to develop an understanding of the processes responsible for the shift and develop a conceptual model that accounts for it.

We demonstrate that changes in the convective static stability in the deep tropics alone can drive remote shifts in the midlatitude storm tracks. Through simulations with a dry idealized general circulation model (GCM), midlatitude storm tracks are shown to be located where the mean available potential energy (MAPE, a measure of the potential energy available to be converted into kinetic energy) is maximal. As the climate varies, even if only driven by tropical static stability changes, the MAPE maximum shifts primarily because of shifts of the maximum of near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The temperature gradients shift in response to changes in the width of the tropical Hadley circulation, whose width is affected by the tropical static stability. Storm tracks generally shift in tandem with shifts of the subtropical terminus of the Hadley circulation.

We develop a one-dimensional diffusive energy-balance model that links changes in the Hadley circulation to midlatitude temperature gradients and so to the storm tracks. It is the first conceptual model to incorporate a dynamical coupling between the tropical Hadley circulation and midlatitude turbulent energy transport. Numerical and analytical solutions of the model elucidate the circumstances of when and how the storm tracks shift in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley circulation. They illustrate how an increase of only the convective static stability in the deep tropics can lead to an expansion of the Hadley circulation and a poleward shift of storm tracks.

The simulations with the idealized GCM and the conceptual energy-balance model demonstrate a clear link between Hadley circulation dynamics and midlatitude storm track position. With the help of the hierarchy of models presented in this thesis, we obtain a closed theory of storm track shifts in dry climates. The relevance of this theory for more realistic moist climates is discussed.

Free algebras in Von Neumann-Bernays-Gӧdel set theory and positive elementary inductions in reasonable structures

This thesis consists of two independent chapters. The first chapter deals with universal algebra. It is shown, in von Neumann-Bernays-Gӧdel set theory, that free images of partial algebras exist in arbitrary varieties. It follows from this, as set-complete Boolean algebras form a variety, that there exist free set-complete Boolean algebras on any class of generators. This appears to contradict a well-known result of A. Hales and H. Gaifman, stating that there is no complete Boolean algebra on any infinite set of generators. However, it does not, as the algebras constructed in this chapter are allowed to be proper classes. The second chapter deals with positive elementary inductions. It is shown that, in any reasonable structure ᶆ, the inductive closure ordinal of ᶆ is admissible, by showing it is equal to an ordinal measuring the saturation of ᶆ. This is also used to show that non-recursively saturated models of the theories ACF, RCF, and DCF have inductive closure ordinals greater than _ω.

O Protocolo de Kyoto e o mercado de crédito de carbono: estudo de caso das emissões de gases de efeito estufa da fábrica de combustível nuclear pertencente às Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil no ano de 2008

A presente dissertação discute as questões relacionadas à intensificação das mudanças climáticas por causas antrópicas conforme a evolução no uso dos recursos naturais, inovações nos processos produtivos, transformações econômicas, sociais, culturais, políticas e, especialmente ambientais. Aborda a comercialização dos créditos de carbono através de projetos de Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL), um dos mecanismos de flexibilização criados pelo Protocolo de Kyoto. No contexto de mudanças climáticas, uma matriz energética que utilize fontes de energia que não emitam gases causadores do efeito estufa (GEE) se mostra uma importante estratégia de desenvolvimento sustentável. Sob essa perspectiva, a energia nucleoelétrica é apresentada como uma alternativa viável aos combustíveis fósseis, considerando que esta é uma energia limpa e compatível com a perspectiva de desenvolvimento sustentável. A Fábrica de Combustível Nuclear (FCN), localizada em Resende (Rio de Janeiro), pertencente às Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil (INB), é um conjunto de sofisticadas fábricas nas quais se processam etapas importantes do ciclo do combustível nuclear. Na FCN, o Centro Zoobotânico realiza a gestão das atividades voltadas para a conservação da natureza tais como o Programa de Recuperação de Mata Ciliar, Reflorestamento e Fauna. O Relatório de inventário das emissões diretas e indiretas de GEE da FCN, elaborado pela INB para o ano de 2008, permite a auto-avaliação da empresa, retratando a preocupação corporativa com as questões relativas às mudanças climáticas. Segundo este Relatório, o total de emissões de GEE quantificado corresponde a 12,14% da capacidade total de sequestro de dióxido de carbono, no período de Janeiro a Dezembro de 2008. A proteção de florestas e a plantação de árvores são componentes essenciais de qualquer estratégia global para mitigação da mudança climática, e a participação da INB no mercado de crédito de carbono pode proporcionar externalidades positivas, tais como ganhos de imagem, adequação a padrões ambientais e melhoria do relacionamento com a sociedade.

Structure-Function Studies of Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptors Using Selective Agonists and Positive Allosteric Modulators

This dissertation primarily describes chemical-scale studies of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) in order to better understand ligand-receptor selectivity and allosteric modulation influences during receptor activation. Electrophysiology coupled with canonical and non-canonical amino acids mutagenesis is used to probe subtle changes in receptor function.

The first half of this dissertation focuses on differential agonist selectivity of α4β2-containing nAChRs. The α4β2 nAChR can assemble in alternative stoichiometries as well as assemble with other accessory subunits. Chapter 2 identifies key structural residues that dictate binding and activation of three stoichiometry-dependent α4β2 receptor ligands: sazetidine-A, cytisine, and NS9283. These do not follow previously suggested hydrogen-bonding patterns of selectivity. Instead, three residues on the complementary subunit strongly influence binding ability of a ligand and receptor activation. Chapter 3 involves isolation of a α5α4β2 receptor-enriched population to test for a potential alternative agonist binding location at the α5 α4 interface. Results strongly suggest that agonist occupation of this site is not necessary for receptor activation and that the α5 subunit only incorporates at the accessory subunit location.

The second half of this dissertation seeks to identify residue interactions with positive allosteric modulators (PAMs) of the α7 nAChR. Chapter 4 focuses on methods development to study loss of potentiation of Type I PAMs, which indicate residues vital to propagation of PAM effects and/or binding. Chapter 5 investigates α7 receptor modulation by a Type II PAM (PNU 120596). These results show that PNU 120596 does not alter the agonist binding site, thus is relegated to influencing only the gating component of activation. From this, we were able to map a potential network of residues from the agonist binding site to the proposed PNU 120596 binding site that are essential for receptor potentiation.

Theory of the positive column of a gas discharge

An attempt is made to provide a theoretical explanation of the effect of the positive column on the voltage-current characteristic of a glow or an arc discharge. Such theories have been developed before, and all are based on balancing the production and loss of charged particles and accounting for the energy supplied to the plasma by the applied electric field. Differences among the theories arise from the approximations and omissions made in selecting processes that affect the particle and energy balances. This work is primarily concerned with the deviation from the ambipolar description of the positive column caused by space charge, electron-ion volume recombination, and temperature inhomogeneities.

The presentation is divided into three parts, the first of which involved the derivation of the final macroscopic equations from kinetic theory. The final equations are obtained by taking the first three moments of the Boltzmann equation for each of the three species in the plasma. Although the method used and the equations obtained are not novel, the derivation is carried out in detail in order to appraise the validity of numerous approximations and to justify the use of data from other sources. The equations are applied to a molecular hydrogen discharge contained between parallel walls. The applied electric field is parallel to the walls, and the dependent variables—electron and ion flux to the walls, electron and ion densities, transverse electric field, and gas temperature—vary only in the direction perpendicular to the walls. The mathematical description is given by a sixth-order nonlinear two-point boundary value problem which contains the applied field as a parameter. The amount of neutral gas and its temperature at the walls are held fixed, and the relation between the applied field and the electron density at the center of the discharge is obtained in the process of solving the problem. This relation corresponds to that between current and voltage and is used to interpret the effect of space charge, recombination, and temperature inhomogeneities on the voltage-current characteristic of the discharge.

The complete solution of the equations is impractical both numerically and analytically, and in Part II the gas temperature is assumed uniform so as to focus on the combined effects of space charge and recombination. The terms representing these effects are treated as perturbations to equations that would otherwise describe the ambipolar situation. However, the term representing space charge is not negligible in a thin boundary layer or sheath near the walls, and consequently the perturbation problem is singular. Separate solutions must be obtained in the sheath and in the main region of the discharge, and the relation between the electron density and the applied field is not determined until these solutions are matched.

In Part III the electron and ion densities are assumed equal, and the complicated space-charge calculation is thereby replaced by the ambipolar description. Recombination and temperature inhomogeneities are both important at high values of the electron density. However, the formulation of the problem permits a comparison of the relative effects, and temperature inhomogeneities are shown to be important at lower values of the electron density than recombination. The equations are solved by a direct numerical integration and by treating the term representing temperature inhomogeneities as a perturbation.

The conclusions reached in the study are primarily concerned with the association of the relation between electron density and axial field with the voltage-current characteristic. It is known that the effect of space charge can account for the subnormal glow discharge and that the normal glow corresponds to a close approach to an ambipolar situation. The effect of temperature inhomogeneities helps explain the decreasing characteristic of the arc, and the effect of recombination is not expected to appear except at very high electron densities.

Envisioning 2050: climate change, aquaculture and fisheries in West Africa. Dakar, Senegal 14-16 April 2010

This report presents the activities and results of the workshop Envisioning 2050: Climate Change, Aquaculture and Fisheries in West Africa. The objectives of the workshop were to discuss critical issues and uncertainties faced by the fisheries and aquaculture sector in Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania, build sectoral scenarios for 2050 and discuss the implication of these scenarios in the context of climate change for the countries and the region.

Anomalous behaviour of photorefractive grating erasure owing to existence of both negative and positive carriers

In LiNbO3:Fe, anomalous behaviour of grating erasure is observed with different wavelenghts, i.e. rapid grating erasure in the short wavelength range, which deviates from the results predicted by the electron transport band model. The deviation is related to the coexistance of electrons and holes in photorefraction, and charge-transfer process including electrons and hole has been proposed. The electron and hole contributions to photo-excitation coefficient S of the Fe centre on the wavelength.