960 resultados para Population viability analysis
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Approaches exploiting trait distribution extremes may be used to identify loci associated with common traits, but it is unknown whether these loci are generalizable to the broader population. In a genome-wide search for loci associated with the upper versus the lower 5th percentiles of body mass index, height and waist-to-hip ratio, as well as clinical classes of obesity, including up to 263,407 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 4 new loci (IGFBP4, H6PD, RSRC1 and PPP2R2A) influencing height detected in the distribution tails and 7 new loci (HNF4G, RPTOR, GNAT2, MRPS33P4, ADCY9, HS6ST3 and ZZZ3) for clinical classes of obesity. Further, we find a large overlap in genetic structure and the distribution of variants between traits based on extremes and the general population and little etiological heterogeneity between obesity subgroups.
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Tässä työssä on esitetty väsyttävän kuormituksen mittaamiseen ja mittausdatan jälkikäsittelyyn sekä väsymismitoitukseen liittyviä menetelmiä. Menetelmien sovelluskohteena oli metsäkoneen kuormain, joka on väsyttävästi kuormitettu hitsattu rakenne. Teoriaosassa on kuvattu väsymisilmiötä ja väsymismitoitusmenetelmiä sekä kuormitusten tunnistamiseen ja mittausten jälkikäsittelyyn liittyviä menetelmiä. Yleisimmin käytettyjen väsymismitoitusmenetelmien rinnalle on esitetty luotettavuuteen perustuvaa väsymismitoitusmenetelmää. Kuormainten suunnittelussa on keveys- j a kestoikävaatimusten takia erityisen suuri merkitys väsymisen huomioimisella. Rakenteille on ominaista tietyt toiminnan kannalta välttämättömät hitsatut yksityiskohdat, jotka usein määräävät koko rakenteen kestoiän. Koska nämä ongelmakohdat pystytään useimmiten tunnistamaan jo suunnitteluvaiheessa, voidaan yksityiskohtien muotoilulla usein parantaa huomattavasti koko rakenteen kestoikää. Näiden yksityiskohtien optimointi on osittain mahdollista toteuttaa ilman kuormituskertymätietoa, mutta useimmiten kuormitusten tunnistaminen on edellytys parhaan ratkaisun löytymiselle. Tällöin toistaiseksi paras keino todellisen väsyttävän kuormituksen tunnistamiseksi on pitkäaikaiset kenttämittaukset. Kenttämittauksilla selvitetään rakenteeseen kohdistuvat kuormitukset venymäliuskojen avulla. Kuormitusten tunnistamisella on erityisen suuri merkitys kun halutaan määrittää rakenteen kestoikä. Väsyminen ja väsyttävä kuormitus ovat kuitenkin tilastollisia muuttujia j a yksittäiselle rakenteelle ei ole mahdollista määrittää tarkkaa k estoikää. Tilastollisia menetelmiä käyttäen on kuitenkin mahdollista määrittää rakenteen vaurioitumisriski. Laskettaessa vaurioitumisriskiä suurelle määrälle yksittäisiä rakenteita voidaan muodostaa tarkkojakin ennusteita mahdollisten vaurioiden lukumäärästä. Tällöin kuormituskertymätiedosta voi olla tavanomaisen suunnittelun lisäksi laajempaa hyötyä esimerkiksi takuukäsittelyssä. Tässä työssä on sovellettu esitettyjä teorioita käytännössä metsäkoneen harvesterin puomiston väsymistarkasteluun. Kyseisen rakenteen kuormituksia mitattiin kahden viikon aikana yhteensä 35 tuntia, jonka perusteella laskettiin väsyttävän kuormituksen tilastollinen jakauma esimerkkitapaukselle. Mittauksen perusteella ei voitu tehdä kuitenkaan johtopäätöksiä tuotteen koko elinkaaren kuormituksista eikä muiden samanlaisten tuotteiden kuormituksista, koska mitattu otos oli suhteellisen lyhyt ja rajoittui vain yhteen käyttäjään ja muutamaan käyttökohteeseen. Menetelmien testaamiseksi kyseinen otos oli kuitenkin riittävä. Kuormituskertymätietoa käytettiin hyväksi myös laatumääritysten muodostamisessaesimerkkitapaukselle. Murtumismekaniikkaan perustuvalla menetelmällä arvioitiinharvesteripilarin valun mahdollisten valuvirheiden suurin sallittu koko. Luotettavuuteen pohjautuvan mitoitusmenettelyn tarve näyttää olevanlisääntymässä, joten pitkäaikaisten kenttämittausten tehokas hyödyntäminen tulee olemaan keskeinen osa väsymismitoitusta lähitulevaisuudessa. Menetelmiä olisi mahdollista tehostaa yhdistämällä kuormituskertymään erilaisia kuormitusten suhteen riippuvia tunnettuja suureita kuten käsiteltävän puun halkaisija. Todellisettuotekohtaiset tilastolliset jakaumat kuormituksista voitaisiin muodostaa mahdollisesti tehokkaammin, jos esimerkiksi kuormitusten riippuvuus metsätyypistä pystyttäisiin ensin määrittämään.
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Background To analyse the extent and profile of outpatient regular dispensation of antipsychotics, both in combination and monotherapy, in the Barcelona Health Region (Spain), focusing on the use of clozapine and long-acting injections (LAI). Methods Antipsychotic drugs dispensed for people older than 18 and processed by the Catalan Health Service during 2007 were retrospectively reviewed. First and second generation antipsychotic drugs (FGA and SGA) from the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification (ATC) code N05A (except lithium) were included. A patient selection algorithm was designed to identify prescriptions regularly dispensed. Variables included were age, gender, antipsychotic type, route of administration and number of packages dispensed. Results A total of 117,811 patients were given any antipsychotic, of whom 71,004 regularly received such drugs. Among the latter, 9,855 (13.9%) corresponded to an antipsychotic combination, 47,386 (66.7%) to monotherapy and 13,763 (19.4%) to unspecified combinations. Of the patients given antipsychotics in association, 58% were men. Olanzapine (37.1%) and oral risperidone (36.4%) were the most common dispensations. Analysis of the patients dispensed two antipsychotics (57.8%) revealed 198 different combinations, the most frequent being the association of FGA and SGA (62.0%). Clozapine was dispensed to 2.3% of patients. Of those who were receiving antipsychotics in combination, 6.6% were given clozapine, being clozapine plus amisulpride the most frequent association (22.8%). A total of 3.800 patients (5.4%) were given LAI antipsychotics, and 2.662 of these (70.1%) were in combination. Risperidone was the most widely used LAI. Conclusions The scant evidence available regarding the efficacy of combining different antipsychotics contrasts with the high number and variety of combinations prescribed to outpatients, as well as with the limited use of clozapine. Background To analyse the extent and profile of outpatient regular dispensation of antipsychotics, both in combination and monotherapy, in the Barcelona Health Region (Spain), focusing on the use of clozapine and long-acting injections (LAI). Methods Antipsychotic drugs dispensed for people older than 18 and processed by the Catalan Health Service during 2007 were retrospectively reviewed. First and second generation antipsychotic drugs (FGA and SGA) from the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification (ATC) code N05A (except lithium) were included. A patient selection algorithm was designed to identify prescriptions regularly dispensed. Variables included were age, gender, antipsychotic type, route of administration and number of packages dispensed. Results A total of 117,811 patients were given any antipsychotic, of whom 71,004 regularly received such drugs. Among the latter, 9,855 (13.9%) corresponded to an antipsychotic combination, 47,386 (66.7%) to monotherapy and 13,763 (19.4%) to unspecified combinations. Of the patients given antipsychotics in association, 58% were men. Olanzapine (37.1%) and oral risperidone (36.4%) were the most common dispensations. Analysis of the patients dispensed two antipsychotics (57.8%) revealed 198 different combinations, the most frequent being the association of FGA and SGA (62.0%). Clozapine was dispensed to 2.3% of patients. Of those who were receiving antipsychotics in combination, 6.6% were given clozapine, being clozapine plus amisulpride the most frequent association (22.8%). A total of 3.800 patients (5.4%) were given LAI antipsychotics, and 2.662 of these (70.1%) were in combination. Risperidone was the most widely used LAI. Conclusions The scant evidence available regarding the efficacy of combining different antipsychotics contrasts with the high number and variety of combinations prescribed to outpatients, as well as with the limited use of clozapine.
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The integration of information which can be gained from accessory [i.e. age (t)] and rock-forming minerals [i.e. temperature (T) and pressure (P)] requires a more profound understanding of the equilibration kinetics during metamorphic processes. This paper presents an approach comparing conventional P-T estimate from equilibrated assemblages of rock-forming minerals with temperature data derived from yttrium-garnet-monazite (YGM) and yttrium-garnet-xenotime (YGX) geothermometry. Such a comparison provides an initial indication on differences between equilibration of major and trace elements. Regarding this purpose, two migmatites, two polycyclic and one monocyclic gneiss from the Central Alps (Switzerland, northern Italy) were investigated. While the polycyclic samples exhibit trace-element equilibration between monazite and garnet grains assigned to the same metamorphic event, there are relics of monazite and garnet obviously surviving independent of their textural position. These observations suggest that surface processes dominate transport processes during equilibration of those samples. The monocyclic gneiss, on the contrary, displays rare isolated monazite with equilibration of all elements, despite comparably large transport distances. With a nearly linear crystal-size distribution of the garnet grain population, growth kinetics, related to the major elements, were likely surface-controlled in this sample. In contrast to these completely equilibrated examples, the migmatites indicate disequilibrium between garnet and monazite with a change in REE patterns on garnet transects. The cause for this disequilibrium may be related to a potential disequilibrium initiated by a changing bulk chemistry during melt segregation. While migmatite environments are expected to support high transport rates (i.e. high temperatures and melt presence), the evolution of equilibration in migmatites is additionaly related to change in chemistry. As a key finding, surface-controlled equilibration kinetics seem to dominate transport-controlled processes in the investigated samples. This may be decisive information towards the understanding of age data derived from monazite.
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Objective To develop a Postnatal Perceived Stress Inventory (PNPSI) and assess its psychometric properties. Design Cross-sectional quantitative study. Setting One nurse-managed labor and delivery unit in a university hospital in a major metropolitan area. Participants One hundred seventy-nine (179) primiparous French speaking women who gave birth at term. Methods The PNPSI was validated at 6 weeks postpartum. Its predictive validity for depression and anxiety was assessed at the same time. Results The exploratory analysis revealed a 19-item structure divided into six factors. This inventory has good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = .815). The predictive validity shows that the PNPSI significantly predicts depression and anxiety at 6 weeks postpartum, and that certain factors are particularly prominent. Conclusion The PNPSI's psychometric properties make it a useful tool for future research to evaluate interventions for perceived stress during the postnatal period. Its predictive power for depression indicates that it is also a promising tool for clinical settings.
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RÉSUMÉ Le Grand tétras est un galliforme de montagne apparenté au faisan et au tétras lyre. Il est distribué de manière continue à travers la toundra et les montagnes de moyenne altitude en Europe de l'ouest. Toutefois, les populations d'Europe de l'ouest ont subi un déclin constant au cours des derniers siècles. Les causes de ce déclin sont probablement liées à l'activité humaine, telle .que l'élevage ou le tourisme, qui ont engendré une modification et une fragmentation de l'habitat de l'espèce. Malheureusement, les populations soumises à de forts déclins démographiques peuvent subir des effets génétiques (augmentation de la consanguinité et perte de diversité génétique) pouvant diminuer leur potentiel de reproduction et conduire irrémédiablement à l'extinction. Cette thèse présente les analyses conduites dans le but d'estimer l'impact du déclin démographique des populations de Grand tétras sur l'étendue et la distribution de leur variabilité génétique dans le Jura et dans les Pyrénées. Du fait de la législation locale protégeant les tétraonidés en général, mais également en raison de la biologie très cryptique du Grand tétras, l'ensemble des analyses de cette étude a été réalisé à partir de matériel génétique extrait des fientes (ou échantillonnage génétique non invasif). Dans la première partie de l'étude, je détaille les protocoles d'extraction. d'ADN et d'amplification par PCR modifiés à partir des protocoles classiques utilisant des échantillons conventionnels, riches en ADN. L'utilisation d'ADN fécal impose des contraintes dues à la mauvaise qualité et à la faible quantité du matériel génétique à disposition dans les fientes. Ces contraintes ont pu être partiellement contournées en réalisant des répétitions multiples du génotypage afin d'obtenir un degré de fiabilité suffisante. J'ai également analysé les causes de la dégradation de l'ADN dans les excréments. Parmi les causes les plus communes, telles que l'activité bactérienne, l'hydrolyse spontanée et la dégradation enzymatique par les DNases libres, c'est ce dernier facteur qui apparaît comme étant la cause majeure et la plus rapide responsable de la dégradation de la qualité des échantillons. La rapidité de l'action enzymatique suggère que les plans d'échantillonnages de excréments sur le terrain pourraient être optimisés en les réalisant dans des conditions climatiques froides et sèches, favorisant ainsi l'inhibition des DNases. La seconde partie de la thèse est une étude par simulation visant à déterminer la capacité du logiciel Structure à identifier les structures génétiques complexes et hiérarchiques fréquemment rencontrées dans les populations naturelles, et ce en utilisant différents types de marqueurs génétiques. Les troisième et quatrième parties de cette thèse décrivent le statut génétique des populations résiduelles du Jura et des Pyrénées à partir de l'analyse de 11 loci microsatellites. Nous n'avons pas pu mettre en évidence dans les deux populations des effets liés à la consanguinité ou à la réduction de la diversité génétique. De plus, la différenciation génétique entre les patches d'habitats favorables reste modérée et corrélée à la distance géographique, ce qui suggère que la dispersion d'individus entre les patches a été importante au moins pendant ces dernières générations. La comparaison des paramètres de la diversité génétique avec ceux d'autres populations de Grand tétras, ou d'autres espèces proches, indique que la population du Jura a retenu une proportion importante de sa diversité originelle. Ces résultats suggèrent que le déclin récent des populations a jusqu'ici eu un impact modéré sur les facteurs génétiques et que ces populations semblent avoir conservé le potentiel génétique nécessaire à leur survie à long terme. Finalement, en cinquième partie, l'analyse de l'apparentement entre les mâles qui participent à la parade sur les places de chant (leks) indique que ces derniers sont distribués en agrégats de manière non aléatoire, préférentiellement entre individus apparentés. De plus, la corrélation entre les distances génétique et géographique entre les leks est en accord avec les motifs d'isolement par la distance mis en évidence à d'autres niveaux hiérarchiques (entre patches d'habitat et populations), ainsi qu'avec les études menées sur d'autres espèces ayant choisi ce même système de reproduction. En conclusion, cette première étude basée uniquement sur de l'ADN nucléaire aviaire extrait à partir de fèces a fourni des informations nouvelles qui n'auraient pas pu être obtenues par une méthode d'observation sur le terrain ou d'échantillonnage génétique classique. Aucun oiseau n'a été dérangé ou capturé, et les résultats sont comparables à d'autres études concernant des espèces proches. Néanmoins, la taille de ces populations approche des niveaux au-dessous desquels la survie à long terme est fortement incertaine. La persistance de la diversité génétique pour les prochaines générations reste en conséquence liée à la survie des adultes et à une reprise du succès de la reproduction. ABSTRACT Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) is a large grouse that is continuously distributed across the tundra and the mid-high mountains of Western Europe. However, the populations in Western Europe have been showing a constant decline during the last decades. The causes for this decline are possibly related to human activities, such as cattle breeding and tourism that have both led to habitat modification and fragmentation. Unfortunately, populations that have undergone drastic demographic bottlenecks often go through genetic processes of inbreeding and loss of diversity that decrease their fitness and eventually lead to extinction. This thesis presents the investigations conducted to estimate the impact of the demographic decline of capercaillie populations on the extent and distribution of their genetic variability in the Jura and in the Pyrenees mountains. Because grouse are protected by wildlife legislation, and also because of the cryptic behaviour of capercaillie, all DNA material used in this study was extracted from faeces (non-invasive genetic sampling). In the first part of my thesis, I detail the protocols of DNA extraction and PCR amplification adapted from classical methods using conventional DNA-rich samples. The use of faecal DNA imposes specific constraints due to the low quantity and the highly degraded genetic material available. These constraints are partially overcome by performing multiple genotyping repetitions to obtain sufficient reliability. I also investigate the causes of DNA degradation in faeces. Among the main degraders, namely bacterial activity, spontaneous hydrolysis, and free-¬DNase activities, the latter was pointed out as the most important according to our experiments. These enzymes degrade DNA very rapidly, and, as a consequence, faeces sampling schemes must be planned preferably in cold and dry weather conditions, allowing for enzyme activity inhibition. The second part of the thesis is a simulation study aiming to assess the capacity of the software Structure to detect population structure in hierarchical models relevant to situations encountered in wild populations, using several genetic markers. The methods implemented in Structure appear efficient in detecting the highest hierarchical structure. The third and fourth parts of the thesis describe the population genetics status of the remaining Jura and Pyrenees populations using 11 microsatellite loci. In either of these populations, no inbreeding nor reduced genetic diversity was detected. Furthermore, the genetic differentiation between patches defined by habitat suitability remains moderate and correlated with geographical distance, suggesting that significant dispersion between patches was at work at least until the last generations. The comparison of diversity indicators with other species or other populations of capercaillie indicate that population in the Jura has retained a large part of its original genetic diversity. These results suggest that the recent decline has had so forth a moderate impact on genetic factors and that these populations might have retained the potential for long term survival, if the decline is stopped. Finally, in the fifth part, the analysis of relatedness between males participating in the reproduction parade, or lek, indicate that capercaillie males, like has been shown for some other grouse species, gather on leks among individuals that are more related than the average of the population. This pattern appears to be due to both population structure and kin-association. As a conclusion, this first study relying exclusively on nuclear DNA extracted from faeces has provided novel information that was not available through field observation or classical genetic sampling. No bird has been captured or disturbed, and the results are consistent with other studies of closely related species. However, the size of these populations is approaching thresholds below which long-term survival is unlikely. The persistence of genetic diversity for the forthcoming generations remains therefore bond to adult survival and to the increase of reproduction success.
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Les maladies rhumatismales sont fréquemment observées chez les personnes âgées et ont un impact considérable sur la qualité de vie des personnes en souffrant. Peu d'études suisses sur la situation épidémiologique et sur l'impact de ce type de maladies sur la consommation des services de santé existent. Cette thèse a pour but d'étudier les connaissances actuelles à partir de la littérature suisse et étrangère et d'établir un bilan en Suisse au moyen d'une enquête de population effectuée en 1997. Une revue systématique de littérature a été effectuée. En dépit d'une grande variété des approches méthodologiques rendant délicates les comparaisons géographiques et temporelles, la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales chez les personnes de 65 ans et plus semble être homogène entre pays et stable temporellement. particulièrement dès 1980. Celle-ci est élevée et augmente rapidement avec le très grand âge. De plus, les femmes sont plus fréquemment atteintes que les hommes. Notre revue montre que le recours aux soins ambulatoires (médecins, chiropraticiens, traitements ambulatoires des hôpitaux) lié aux maladies rhumatismales est important. L'impact de ces maladies sur les hospitalisations est, par contre, moins clairement établi. Les nouvelles générations de personnes en souffrant semblent avoir plus recours aux services de santé que les précédentes. Ces maladies sont aussi à l'origine d'une forte consommation d'anti-inflammatoires non-stéroïdiens avec comme conséquence une multitude de complications. En dépit de son efficacité et de son utilité, le recours à l'arthroplastie est sous- utilisé. Notre analyse se base sur une enquête réalisée auprès d'un échantillon représentatif des individus âgés de 15 ans et plus résidant de manière permanente en Suisse en 1997 : la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales en Suisse s'élève à 41 % chez les personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus, dont 48 % chez les femmes et 31 % chez les hommes. Ces prévalences sont inférieures à celles relevées dans la littérature probablement en raison de notre définition relativement restrictive des maladies rhumatismales. Ces dernières augmentent de 50 % le nombre attendu de consultations chez un médecin ou un chiropraticien et de 30 % le nombre attendu d'hospitalisations. Les personnes souffrantes ont. en outre, une probabilité de recours aux services de Soins à domicile 1,7 fois plus élevé que les autres. Aucun impact sur le nombre de traitements ambulatoires en milieu hospitalier n'a été trouvé. Nos résultats sont comparables à ceux relevés dans la littérature internationale et suisse, sauf pour les traitements ambulatoires des hôpitaux. En 1990, sur les 983'400 personnes de 65 ans et plus (recensement fédéral de la population de 1990), 403'200 personnes souffraient de maladies rhumatismales. Quelque 5'334'900 consultations chez un médecin ou un chiropraticien, 4'959'300 consultations chez un médecin et 216'800 hospitalisations étaient imputables aux personnes de 65 ans et plus toutes causes de consultations confondues, dont 1'008'000 consultations chez un médecin/chiropraticien, 927'300 chez un médecin et 98'500 hospitalisations imputables aux maladies rhumatismales. Selon ie scénario (( tendance )) des projections démographiques publiées par l'Office Fédéral de la Statistique. d'ici 2040, le nombre de personnes souffrant de maladies rhumatismales en Suisse risque d'augmenter de 80 % (en supposant que la prévalence reste stable), affectant 726'500 sur 1'772'000 personnes de 65 ans et plus. Cette augmentation est la conséquence de l'accroissement prévu de la population de 65 ans et plus dans la population générale. Le nombre global de consultatiordhospitalisations risque d'augmenter dans les mêmes proportions si le recours aux services de santé reste stable. En effet. en 2040, quelque 9'613'100 consultations chez un médecinichiropraticien, 8'936'200 consultations chez un médecin et 390'700 hospitalisations pourraient être imputables aux personnes de 65 ans et plus. dont 1'8 16'300 consultations chez un médecin/chiropraticien, 1'67 1'000 consultations chez un médecin et 1 90'600 hospitalisations en raison de maladies rhumatismales. Une légère diminution du nombre de personnes atteintes de maladies rhumatismales. ainsi que du recours aux services de santé engendré par ces maladies. est attendue dès 3040. Le nombre de personnes souffrant de maladies rhumatismales et le nombre de consultations/ hospitalisations associées risquant d'augmenter de façon considérable, il est nécessaire de freiner cette progression. Des mesures préventives primaires, secondaires ou tertiaires peuvent diminuer la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales et l'impact de celles-ci sur la consommation des services de santé.<br/><br/>Rheumatic diseases are frequently observed in elderly people and have an important impact on tlieir life qurlity. There are fe1.v Swiss stuciies on the epiciemio!ogica! situttien and on the impact of such diseases on the use of health services. This thesis aims at studying the current knowledge based on Swiss and international literature and at establishing the situation in Switzerland from a population survey conducted in 1997. A systeinatic literature review lias been carried out. Despite a large range of methods making a comparisoii diffcult, the prevalence of rheumatic diseases seems to be homogeneous in different countries and stable. especially since 1980. It is high and increases rapidly with age. Furthermore, \niorneil suffer more frequently thaii men. Our review shows that the use of ambulatory care linked to rheumatic diseases is important. On the contrary, the impact of such diseases on hospitalization is less clearly established. New generations seem to consult more. Rheumatic diseases are also at the origin of a strong consumptioii of non-steroidal anti- inflammatory drugs \vitIl potential severe consequences. Despite its effectiveness and efficiency, arthroplasty is underused. Our analysis is based 011 a survey of Swiss permanent residents aged 15 or more in 1997. Based on Our analysis, the prevalence of rheumatic diseases in Switzerland is 41 % for elderly people (48 96 for women and 31 % for men). Theses prevalences are smaller than those found in the literature because of our relatively strict definition of rheumatic diseases. The latter diseases increase of about 50 o/o the expected number of consultations (chiropractor included or not) and of about 30 960 the expected number of hospitalizations. The affected persons have a probability of home care use 1.7 times higlier than the others. No impact on the number of outpatient care provided by hospitals has been found. Our results are comparable to those found in the international and Swiss literature, except for hospital outpatient care. In 1990, of 983,400 perçons aged 65 and older, 403,200 persons suffered from rheumatic diseases. 5,334,900 consultations by a physician or a chiropractor, 4,959,300 consultations by a physician and 2 16,800 hospitalizations were attributed to the elderly whatever, the reason of consultation, of which 1,008,000 consultations by a physicianlchiropractor, 927,300 by a physician, and 98,500 hospitalizations are due to rheumatic diseases. According to the "tendance" scenario of demographic projections published by the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics, until 2040 the number of persons suffering from rheumatic diseases will increase of 80 % if the prevalence stays stable, affecting 736,500 of 1,772,000 perçons of 65 and older. This increase is due to the increase of the percentage of persons 65 and older in the population. The global number of consultationshospitalizations will increase similarly if the use of health services stays stable. In 2040, 9,613,l 00 consultations by a physiciaidchiropractor, 8,936,200 Consultations by a physician and 390,700 hospitalizations could be attributed to the persons aged 65 and older, of which 1,816,300 consultations by a physician, 1,671,000 consultations by a physician/chiropractor and 109,600 hospitalizations will be due to the rheumatic diseases. However a small decrease of the number of affected perçons and of the subsequent use of health services is expected after 2040. The number of affected elderly people and the volume of conçultations/hospitalizations are expected to increase and it ir necessx-y to slow down this progression. Preventive interventions, primary, secondary or tertiary, can decrease the prevalence of rheumatic diseases and the impaci on the consumption of health services.
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La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.
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Background: The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome is the most frequent genomic disorder with an estimated frequency of 1/4000 live births. The majority of patients (90%) have the same deletion of 3 Mb (Typically Deleted Region, TDR) that results from aberrant recombination at meiosis between region specific low-copy repeats (LCRs). Methods: As a first step towards the characterization of recombination rates and breakpoints within the 22q11.2 region we have constructed a high resolution recombination breakpoint map based on pedigree analysis and a population-based historical recombination map based on LD analysis. Results: Our pedigree map allows the location of recombination breakpoints with a high resolution (potential recombination hotspots), and this approach has led to the identification of 5 breakpoint segments of 50 kb or less (8.6 kb the smallest), that coincide with historical hotspots. It has been suggested that aberrant recombination leading to deletion (and duplication) is caused by low rates of Allelic Homologous Recombination (AHR) within the affected region. However, recombination rate estimates for 22q11.2 region show that neither average recombination rates in the 22q11.2 region or within LCR22-2 (the LCR implicated in most deletions and duplications), are significantly below chromosome 22 averages. Furthermore, LCR22-2, the repeat most frequently implicated in rearrangements, is also the LCR22 with the highest levels of AHR. In addition, we find recombination events in the 22q11.2 region to cluster within families. Within this context, the same chromosome recombines twice in one family; first by AHR and in the next generation by NAHR resulting in an individual affected with the del22q11.2 syndrome. Conclusion: We show in the context of a first high resolution pedigree map of the 22q11.2 region that NAHR within LCR22 leading to duplications and deletions cannot be explained exclusively under a hypothesis of low AHR rates. In addition, we find that AHR recombination events cluster within families. If normal and aberrant recombination are mechanistically related, the fact that LCR22s undergo frequent AHR and that we find familial differences in recombination rates within the 22q11.2 region would have obvious health-related implications.
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Tyypin 1 diabeteksen perinnöllinen alttius Suomessa - HLA-alueen ulkopuolisten alttiuslokusten IDDM2 ja IDDM9 rooli taudin periytymisessä HLA-alue, joka sijaitsee kromosomissa 6p21.3, vastaa noin puolesta perinnöllisestä alttiudesta sairastua tyypin 1 diabetekseen. Myös HLA-alueen ulkopuolisten lokusten on todettu liittyvän sairausalttiuteen. Näistä kolmen lokuksen on varmistettu olevan todellisia alttiuslokuksia ja lisäksi useiden muiden, vielä varmistamattomien lokusten, on todettu liittyvän sairausalttiuteen. Tässä tutkimuksessa 12:n HLA-alueen ulkopuolisen alttiuslokuksen kytkentä tyypin 1 diabetekseen tutkittiin käyttäen 107:aa suomalaista multiplex-perhettä. Jatkotutkimuksessa analysoitiin IDDM9-alueen kytkentä ja assosiaatio sairauteen laajennetuissa perhemateriaaleissa sekä IDDM2-alueen mahdollinen interaktio HLA-alueen kanssa sairauden muodostumisessa. Lisäksi suoritettiin IDDM2-alueen suojaavien haplotyyppien alatyypitys tarkoituksena tutkia eri haplotyyppien käyttökelpoisuutta sairastumisriskin tarkempaa ennustamista varten. Ensimmäisessä kytkentätutkimuksessa ei löytynyt koko genomin tasolla merkitsevää tai viitteellistä kytkentää tutkituista HLA-alueen ulkopuolisista lokuksista. Voimakkain havaittu nimellisen merkitsevyyden tavoittava kytkentä nähtiin IDDM9-alueen markkerilla D3S3576 (MLS=1.05). Tutkimuksessa ei kyetty varmistamaan tai sulkemaan pois aiempia kytkentähavaintoja tutkituilla lokuksilla, mutta IDDM9-alueen jatkotutkimuksessa havaittu voimakas kytkentä (MLS=3.4) ja merkitsevä assosiaatio (TDT p=0.0002) viittaa vahvasti siihen, että 3q21-alueella sijaitsee todellinen tyypin 1 diabeteksen alttiusgeeni, jolloin alueen kattava assosiaatiotutkimus olisi perusteltu jatkotoimenpide. Sairauteen altistava IDDM2-alueen MspI-2221 genotyyppi CC oli nimellisesti yleisempi matalan tai kohtalaisen HLA-sairastumisriskin diabeetikoilla, verrattuna korkean HLA-riskin potilaisiin (p=0.05). Myös genotyyppijakauman vertailu osoitti merkitsevää eroa ryhmien välillä (p=0.01). VNTR-haplotyyppitutkimus osoitti, että IIIA/IIIA-homotsygootin sairaudelta suojaava vaikutus on merkitsevästi voimakkaampi kuin muiden luokka III:n genotyypeillä. Nämä tulokset viittaavat IDDM2-HLA -vuorovaikutukseen sekä siihen että IDDM2-alueen haplotyyppien välillä esiintyy etiologista heterogeniaa. Tämän johdosta IDDM2-alueen haplotyyppien tarkempi määrittäminen voisi tehostaa tyypin 1 diabeteksen riskiarviointia.
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Inter-individual diet variation within populations is likely to have important ecological and evolutionary implications. The diet-fitness relationships at the individual level and the emerging population processes are, however, poorly understood for most avian predators inhabiting complex terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we use an isotopic approach to assess the trophic ecology of nestlings in a long-lived raptor, the Bonelli"s eagle Aquila fasciata, and investigate whether nestling dietary breath and main prey consumption can affect the species" reproductive performance at two spatial scales: territories within populations and populations over a large geographic area. At the territory level, those breeding pairs whose nestlings consumed similar diets to the overall population (i.e. moderate consumption of preferred prey, but complemented by alternative prey categories) or those disproportionally consuming preferred prey were more likely to fledge two chicks. An increase in the diet diversity, however, related negatively with productivity. The age and replacements of breeding pair members had also an influence on productivity, with more fledglings associated to adult pairs with few replacements, as expected in long-lived species. At the population level, mean productivity was higher in those population-years with lower dietary breadth and higher diet similarity among territories, which was related to an overall higher consumption of preferred prey. Thus, we revealed a correspondence in diet-fitness relationships at two spatial scales: territories and populations. We suggest that stable isotope analyses may be a powerful tool to monitor the diet of terrestrial avian predators on large spatio-temporal scales, which could serve to detect potential changes in the availability of those prey on which predators depend for breeding. We encourage ecologists and evolutionary and conservation biologists concerned with the multi-scale fitness consequences of inter-individual variation in resource use to employ similar stable isotope-based approaches, which can be successfully applied to complex ecosystems such as the Mediterranean.
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OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to statistically model the relative increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) per year older in Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) and to compare this with the relative increased risk of CVD per year older in general population risk equations. METHODS: We analysed three endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD: MI or invasive coronary procedure) and CVD (CHD or stroke). We fitted a number of parametric age effects, adjusting for known risk factors and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. The best-fitting age effect was determined using the Akaike information criterion. We compared the ageing effect from D:A:D with that from the general population risk equations: the Framingham Heart Study, CUORE and ASSIGN risk scores. RESULTS: A total of 24 323 men were included in analyses. Crude MI, CHD and CVD event rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.29, 3.11 and 3.65 in those aged 40-45 years to 6.53, 11.91 and 15.89 in those aged 60-65 years, respectively. The best-fitting models included inverse age for MI and age + age(2) for CHD and CVD. In D:A:D there was a slowly accelerating increased risk of CHD and CVD per year older, which appeared to be only modest yet was consistently raised compared with the risk in the general population. The relative risk of MI with age was not different between D:A:D and the general population. CONCLUSIONS: We found only limited evidence of accelerating increased risk of CVD with age in D:A:D compared with the general population. The absolute risk of CVD associated with HIV infection remains uncertain.
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Antisocial and criminal behaviors are multifactorial traits whose interpretation relies on multiple disciplines. Since these interpretations may have social, moral and legal implications, a constant review of the evidence is necessary before any scientific claim is considered as truth. A recent study proposed that men with wider faces relative to facial height (fWHR) are more likely to develop unethical behaviour mediated by a psychological sense of power. This research was based on reports suggesting that sexual dimorphism and selection would be responsible for a correlation between fWHR and aggression. Here we show that 4,960 individuals from 94 modern human populations belonging to a vast array of genetic and cultural contexts do not display significant amounts of fWHR sexual dimorphism. Further analyses using populations with associated ethnographical records as well as samples of male prisoners of the Mexico City Federal Penitentiary condemned by crimes of variable level of inter-personal aggression (homicide, robbery, and minor faults) did not show significant evidence, suggesting that populations/individuals with higher levels of bellicosity, aggressive behaviour, or power-mediated behaviour display greater fWHR. Finally, a regression analysis of fWHR on individual"s fitness showed no significant correlation between this facial trait and reproductive success. Overall, our results suggest that facial attributes are poor predictors of aggressive behaviour, or at least, that sexual selection was weak enough to leave a signal on patterns of between- and within-sex and population facial variation.
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Light confinement strategies in thin-film silicon solar cells play a crucial role in the performance of the devices. In this work, the possible use of Ag-coated stamped polymers as reflectors to be used in n-i-p solar cells is studied. Different random roughnesses (nanometer and micrometer size) have been transferred on poly(methylmethacrylate) (PMMA) by hot embossing. Morphological and optical analyses of masters, stamped polymers and reflectors have been carried out evidencing a positive surface transference on the polymer and the viability of a further application in solar cells.
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Arginine vasopressin (AVP) has a key role in osmoregulation by facilitating water transport in the collecting duct. Recent evidence suggests that AVP may have additional effects on renal function and favor cyst growth in polycystic kidney disease. Whether AVP also affects kidney structure in the general population is unknown. We analyzed the association of copeptin, an established surrogate for AVP, with parameters of renal function and morphology in a multicentric population-based cohort. Participants from families of European ancestry were randomly selected in three Swiss cities. We used linear multilevel regression analysis to explore the association of copeptin with renal function parameters as well as kidney length and the presence of simple renal cysts assessed by ultrasound examination. Copeptin levels were log-transformed. The 529 women and 481 men had median copeptin levels of 3.0 and 5.2 pmol/L, respectively (P<0.001). In multivariable analyses, the copeptin level was associated inversely with eGFR (β=-2.1; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], -3.3 to -0.8; P=0.002) and kidney length (β=-1.2; 95% CI, -1.9 to -0.4; P=0.003) but positively with 24-hour urinary albumin excretion (β=0.11; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.20; P=0.03) and urine osmolality (β=0.08; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.10; P<0.001). A positive association was found between the copeptin level and the presence of renal cysts (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.4; P=0.02). These results suggest that AVP has a pleiotropic role in renal function and may favor the development of simple renal cysts.