Differentiation between Neotropical rainforest, dry forest and savannah ecosystems by their modern pollen spectra and implications for the fossil pollen record

Accurate differentiation between tropical forest and savannah ecosystems in the fossil pollen record is hampered by the combination of: i) poor taxonomic resolution in pollen identification, and ii) the high species diversity of many lowland tropical families, i.e. with many different growth forms living in numerous environmental settings. These barriers to interpreting the fossil record hinder our understanding of the past distributions of different Neotropical ecosystems and consequently cloud our knowledge of past climatic, biodiversity and carbon storage patterns. Modern pollen studies facilitate an improved understanding of how ecosystems are represented by the pollen their plants produce and therefore aid interpretation of fossil pollen records. To understand how to differentiate ecosystems palynologically, it is essential that a consistent sampling method is used across ecosystems. However, to date, modern pollen studies from tropical South America have employed a variety of methodologies (e.g. pollen traps, moss polsters, soil samples). In this paper, we present the first modern pollen study from the Neotropics to examine the modern pollen rain from moist evergreen tropical forest (METF), semi-deciduous dry tropical forest (SDTF) and wooded savannah (cerradão) using a consistent sampling methodology (pollen traps). Pollen rain was sampled annually in September for the years 1999–2001 from within permanent vegetation study plots in, or near, the Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (NKMNP), Bolivia. Comparison of the modern pollen rain within these plots with detailed floristic inventories allowed estimates of the relative pollen productivity and dispersal for individual taxa to be made (% pollen/% vegetation or ‘p/v’). The applicability of these data to interpreting fossil records from lake sediments was then explored by comparison with pollen assemblages obtained from five lake surface samples.

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18000 radiocarbon years

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000±500 and 18 000±1000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation.

An infrared desert dust index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

A new aerosol index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is presented that provides a means to detect desert dust contamination in infrared SST retrievals. The ATSR Saharan dust index (ASDI) utilises only the thermal infrared channels and may therefore be applied consistently to the entire ATSR data record (1991 to present), for both day time and night time observations. The derivation of the ASDI is based on a principal component (PC) analysis (PCA) of two unique pairs of channel brightness temperature differences (BTDs). In 2-D space (i.e. BTD vs BTD), it is found that the loci of data unaffected by aerosol are confined to a single axis of variability. In contrast, the loci of aerosol-contaminated data fall off-axis, shifting in a direction that is approximately orthogonal to the clear-sky axis. The ASDI is therefore defined to be the second PC, where the first PC accounts for the clear-sky variability. The primary ASDI utilises the ATSR nadir and forward-view observations at 11 and 12 μm (ASDI2). A secondary, three-channel nadir-only ASDI (ASDI3) is also defined for situations where data from the forward view are not available. Empirical and theoretical analyses suggest that ASDI is well correlated with aerosol optical depth (AOD: correlation r is typically > 0.7) and provides an effective tool for detecting desert mineral dust. Overall, ASDI2 is found to be more effective than ASDI3, with the latter being sensitive only to very high dust loading. In addition, use of ASDI3 is confined to night time observations as it relies on data from the 3.7 μm channel, which is sensitive to reflected solar radiation. This highlights the benefits of having data from both a nadir- and a forward-view for this particular approach to aerosol detection.

Influence of dietary protein intake and glycemic index on the association between TCF7L2 HapA and weight gain

BACKGROUND: Genetic polymorphisms of transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) have been associated with type 2 diabetes and BMI. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate whether TCF7L2 HapA is associated with weight development and whether such an association is modulated by protein intake or by the glycemic index (GI). DESIGN: The investigation was based on prospective data from 5 cohort studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Weight change was followed up for a mean (±SD) of 6.8 ± 2.5 y. TCF7L2 rs7903146 and rs10885406 were successfully genotyped in 11,069 individuals and used to derive HapA. Multiple logistic and linear regression analysis was applied to test for the main effect of HapA and its interaction with dietary protein or GI. Analyses from the cohorts were combined by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: HapA was associated neither with baseline BMI (0.03 ± 0.07 BMI units per allele; P = 0.6) nor with annual weight change (8.8 ± 11.7 g/y per allele; P = 0.5). However, a previously shown positive association between intake of protein, particularly of animal origin, and subsequent weight change in this population proved to be attenuated by TCF7L2 HapA (P-interaction = 0.01). We showed that weight gain becomes independent of protein intake with an increasing number of HapA alleles. Substitution of protein with either fat or carbohydrates showed the same effects. No interaction with GI was observed. CONCLUSION: TCF7L2 HapA attenuates the positive association between animal protein intake and long-term body weight change in middle-aged Europeans but does not interact with the GI of the diet.

Physical activity attenuates the body mass index-increasing influence of genetic variation in the FTO gene 1-3.

BACKGROUND: Intronic variation in the FTO (fat mass and obesity-associated) gene has been unequivocally associated with increased body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and the risk of obesity in populations of different ethnicity. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether this robust genetic predisposition to obesity can be attenuated by being more physically active. DESIGN: The FTO variant rs1121980 was genotyped in 20,374 participants (39-79 y of age) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk Study, an ethnically homogeneous population-based cohort. Physical activity (PA) was assessed with a validated self-reported questionnaire. The interaction between rs1121980 and PA on BMI and waist circumference (WC) was examined by including the interaction term in mixed-effect models. RESULTS: We confirmed that the risk (T) allele of rs1121980 was significantly associated with BMI (0.31-unit increase per allele; P < 0.001) and WC (0.77-cm increase per allele; P < 0.001). The PA level attenuated the effect of rs1121980 on BMI and WC; ie, whereas in active individuals the risk allele increased BMI by 0.25 per allele, the increase in BMI was significantly (P for interaction = 0.004) more pronounced (76%) in inactive individuals (0.44 per risk allele). We observed similar effects for WC (P for interaction = 0.02): the risk allele increased WC by 1.04 cm per allele in inactive individuals but by only 0.64 cm in active individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that PA attenuates the effect of the FTO rs1121980 genotype on BMI and WC. This observation has important public health implications because we showed that a genetic susceptibility to obesity induced by FTO variation can be overcome, at least in part, by adopting a physically active lifestyle.

Six new loci associated with body mass index highlight a neuronal influence on body weight regulation

Common variants at only two loci, FTO and MC4R, have been reproducibly associated with body mass index (BMI) in humans. To identify additional loci, we conducted meta-analysis of 15 genome-wide association studies for BMI (n > 32,000) and followed up top signals in 14 additional cohorts (n > 59,000). We strongly confirm FTO and MC4R and identify six additional loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)): TMEM18, KCTD15, GNPDA2, SH2B1, MTCH2 and NEGR1 (where a 45-kb deletion polymorphism is a candidate causal variant). Several of the likely causal genes are highly expressed or known to act in the central nervous system (CNS), emphasizing, as in rare monogenic forms of obesity, the role of the CNS in predisposition to obesity.

Glycemic Index, glycemic control and beyond

It is currently estimated that over 370 million individuals have diabetes, making diabetes a major public health issue contributing significantly to global morbidity and mortality. The steep rise in diabetes prevalence over the past decades is attributable, in a large part, to lifestyle changes, with dietary habits and behaviour significant contributors. Despite the relatively wide availability of anti-diabetic medicine, it is lifestyle approaches that still remain the cornerstone of diabetes prevention and treatment. Glycemic index (GI) is a nutritional tool, which represents the glycemic response to carbohydrate ingestion. In light of the major impact of nutrition on diabetes pathophysiology, with the rising need to combat the escalating diabetes epidemic, this review will focus on the role of GI in glycemic control, the primary target of diabetic treatment and beyond. The review will present the evidence relating GI and diabetes treatment and prevention, as well as weight loss, weight maintenance and CVD risk factors.

Pollen, plant macrofossil and charcoal records for palaeovegetation reconstruction in the Mediterranean-Black Sea Corridor since the Last Glacial Maximum

New reconstructions of changing vegetation patterns in the Mediterranean-Black Sea Corridor since the Last Glacial Maximum are being produced by an improved biomisation scheme that uses both pollen and plant macrofossil data, in conjunction. Changes in fire regimes over the same interval will also be reconstructed using both microscopic and macroscopic charcoal remains. These reconstructions will allow a diagnosis of the interactions between climate, fire and vegetation on millennial timescales, and will also help to clarify the role of coastline and other geomorphic changes, salinity and impacts of human activities in this region. These new data sets are being produced as a result of collaboration between the Palynology Working Group (WG-2) within the IGCP-521 project and the international Palaeovegetation Mapping Project (BIOME 6000). The main objective of this paper is to present the goals of this cooperation, methodology, including limitations and planned improvements, and to show the initial results of some applications.

Relationships between plant traits and climate in the Mediterranean region: an analysis based on pollen data

Question: What are the correlations between the degree of drought stress and temperature, and the adoption of specific adaptive strategies by plants in the Mediterranean region? Location: 602 sites across the Mediterranean region. Method: We considered 12 plant morphological and phenological traits, and measured their abundance at the sites as trait scores obtained from pollen percentages. We conducted stepwise regression analyses of trait scores as a function of plant available moisture (α) and winter temperature (MTCO). Results: Patterns in the abundance for the plant traits we considered are clearly determined by α, MTCO or a combination of both. In addition, trends in leaf size, texture, thickness, pubescence and aromatic leaves and other plant level traits such as thorniness and aphylly, vary according to the life form (tree, shrub, forb), the leaf type (broad, needle) and phenology (evergreen, summer-green). Conclusions: Despite conducting this study based on pollen data we have identified ecologically plausible trends in the abundance of traits along climatic gradients. Plant traits other than the usual life form, leaf type and leaf phenology carry strong climatic signals. Generally, combinations of plant traits are more climatically diagnostic than individual traits. The qualitative and quantitative relationships between plant traits and climate parameters established here will help to provide an improved basis for modelling the impact of climate changes on vegetation and form a starting point for a global analysis of pollen-climate relationships

Pollen-based reconstructions of biome distributions for Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) at 0,6000 and 18,000 14C yr B.P.

Aim  This paper documents reconstructions of the vegetation patterns in Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) in the mid-Holocene and at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Methods  Vegetation patterns were reconstructed from pollen data using an objective biomization scheme based on plant functional types. The biomization scheme was first tested using 535 modern pollen samples from 377 sites, and then applied unchanged to fossil pollen samples dating to 6000 ± 500 or 18,000 ± 1000 14C yr bp. Results  1. Tests using surface pollen sample sites showed that the biomization scheme is capable of reproducing the modern broad-scale patterns of vegetation distribution. The north–south gradient in temperature, reflected in transitions from cool evergreen needleleaf forest in the extreme south through temperate rain forest or wet sclerophyll forest (WSFW) and into tropical forests, is well reconstructed. The transitions from xerophytic through sclerophyll woodlands and open forests to closed-canopy forests, which reflect the gradient in plant available moisture from the continental interior towards the coast, are reconstructed with less geographical precision but nevertheless the broad-scale pattern emerges. 2. Differences between the modern and mid-Holocene vegetation patterns in mainland Australia are comparatively small and reflect changes in moisture availability rather than temperature. In south-eastern Australia some sites show a shift towards more moisture-stressed vegetation in the mid-Holocene with xerophytic woods/scrub and temperate sclerophyll woodland and shrubland at sites characterized today by WSFW or warm-temperate rain forest (WTRF). However, sites in the Snowy Mountains, on the Southern Tablelands and east of the Great Dividing Range have more moisture-demanding vegetation in the mid-Holocene than today. South-western Australia was slightly drier than today. The single site in north-western Australia also shows conditions drier than today in the mid-Holocene. Changes in the tropics are also comparatively small, but the presence of WTRF and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the mid-Holocene, in sites occupied today by cool-temperate rain forest, indicate warmer conditions. 3. Expansion of xerophytic vegetation in the south and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the north indicate drier conditions across mainland Australia at the LGM. None of these changes are informative about the degree of cooling. However the evidence from the tropics, showing lowering of the treeline and forest belts, indicates that conditions were between 1 and 9 °C (depending on elevation) colder. The encroachment of tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland into lowland evergreen broadleaf forest implies greater aridity. Main conclusions  This study provides the first continental-scale reconstruction of mid-Holocene and LGM vegetation patterns from Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) using an objective biomization scheme. These data will provide a benchmark for evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

A trading strategy based on the lead–lag relationship between the spot index and futures contract for the FTSE 100

This paper examines the lead–lag relationship between the FTSE 100 index and index futures price employing a number of time series models. Using 10-min observations from June 1996–1997, it is found that lagged changes in the futures price can help to predict changes in the spot price. The best forecasting model is of the error correction type, allowing for the theoretical difference between spot and futures prices according to the cost of carry relationship. This predictive ability is in turn utilised to derive a trading strategy which is tested under real-world conditions to search for systematic profitable trading opportunities. It is revealed that although the model forecasts produce significantly higher returns than a passive benchmark, the model was unable to outperform the benchmark after allowing for transaction costs.

An alternative approach to investigating lead-lag relationships between stock and stock index futures markets

In the absence of market frictions, the cost-of-carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. It is argued that traditional tests, which assume that the underlying data generating process is constant, might be prone to overstate the lead-lag relationship. Using a new test for lead-lag relationships based on cross correlations and cross bicorrelations it is found that, contrary to results from using the traditional methodology, periods where the futures market leads the cash market are few and far between and when any lead-lag relationship is detected, it does not last long. Overall, the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard cost-of-carry model and market efficiency.

Predicting stock index volatility: can market volume help?

This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the NYSE. An application of linear and non-linear Granger causality tests highlights evidence of bidirectional causality, although the relationship is stronger from volatility to volume than the other way around. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear, GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and neural network models of volatility are evaluated and compared. The models are also augmented by the addition of a measure of lagged volume to form more general ex-ante forecasting models. The results indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to very modest improvements, if any, in forecasting performance.

Modern pollen samples from alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau.

1  A set of 316 modern surface pollen samples, sampling all the alpine vegetation types that occur on the Tibetan Plateau, has been compiled and analysed. Between 82 and 92% of the pollen present in these samples is derived from only 28 major taxa. These 28 taxa include examples of both tree (AP) and herb (NAP) pollen types. 2  Most of the modern surface pollen samples accurately reflect the composition of the modern vegetation in the sampling region. However, airborne dust-trap pollen samples do not provide a reliable assessment of the modern vegetation. Dust-trap samples contain much higher percentages of tree pollen than non-dust-trap samples, and many of the taxa present are exotic. In the extremely windy environments of the Tibetan Plateau, contamination of dust-trap samples by long-distance transport of exotic pollen is a serious problem. 3  The most characteristic vegetation types present on the Tibetan Plateau are alpine meadows, steppe and desert. Non-arboreal pollen (NAP) therefore dominates the pollen samples in most regions. Percentages of arboreal pollen (AP) are high in samples from the southern and eastern Tibetan Plateau, where alpine forests are an important component of the vegetation. The relative importance of forest and non-forest vegetation across the Plateau clearly follows climatic gradients: forests occur on the southern and eastern margins of the Plateau, supported by the penetration of moisture-bearing airmasses associated with the Indian and Pacific summer monsoons; open, treeless vegetation is dominant in the interior and northern margins of the Plateau, far from these moisture sources. 4  The different types of non-forest vegetation are characterized by different modern pollen assemblages. Thus, alpine deserts are characterized by high percentages of Chenopodiaceae and Artemisia, with Ephedra and Nitraria. Alpine meadows are characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae and Artemisia, with Ranunculaceae and Polygonaceae. Alpine steppe is characterized by high abundances of Artemisia, with Compositae, Cruciferae and Chenopodiaceae. Although Artemisia is a common component of all non-forest vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau, the presence of other taxa makes it possible to discriminate between the different vegetation types. 5  The good agreement between modern vegetation and modern surface pollen samples across the Tibetan Plateau provides a measure of the reliability of using pollen data to reconstruct past vegetation patterns in non-forested areas.

Pollen-based reconstructions of Japanese biomes at 0, 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp

A biomization method, which objectively assigns individual pollen assemblages to biomes ( Prentice et al., 1996 ), was tested using modern pollen data from Japan and applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp Biomization started with the assignment of 135 pollen taxa to plant functional types (PFTs), and nine possible biomes were defined by specific combinations of PFTs. Biomes were correctly assigned to 54% of the 94 modern sites. Incorrect assignments occur near the altitudinal limits of individual biomes, where pollen transport from lower altitudes blurs the local pollen signals or continuous changes in species composition characterizes the range limits of biomes. As a result, the reconstructed changes in the altitudinal limits of biomes at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp are likely to be conservative estimates of the actual changes. The biome distribution at 6000 14C yr bp was rather similar to today, suggesting that changes in the bioclimate of Japan have been small since the mid-Holocene. At 18,000 14C yr bp the Japanese lowlands were covered by taiga and cool mixed forests. The southward expansion of these forests and the absence of broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forests reflect a pronounced year-round cooling.