Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy Performance Plan, FY 2009

Agency Performance Plan, Governor’s Office of Drug Control Policy

Expanding molecular modeling and design tools to non-natural sidechains.

Protein-protein interactions encode the wiring diagram of cellular signaling pathways and their deregulations underlie a variety of diseases, such as cancer. Inhibiting protein-protein interactions with peptide derivatives is a promising way to develop new biological and therapeutic tools. Here, we develop a general framework to computationally handle hundreds of non-natural amino acid sidechains and predict the effect of inserting them into peptides or proteins. We first generate all structural files (pdb and mol2), as well as parameters and topologies for standard molecular mechanics software (CHARMM and Gromacs). Accurate predictions of rotamer probabilities are provided using a novel combined knowledge and physics based strategy. Non-natural sidechains are useful to increase peptide ligand binding affinity. Our results obtained on non-natural mutants of a BCL9 peptide targeting beta-catenin show very good correlation between predicted and experimental binding free-energies, indicating that such predictions can be used to design new inhibitors. Data generated in this work, as well as PyMOL and UCSF Chimera plug-ins for user-friendly visualization of non-natural sidechains, are all available at http://www.swisssidechain.ch. Our results enable researchers to rapidly and efficiently work with hundreds of non-natural sidechains.

The daily market for funds in Europe: Has something changed with the EMU?

This paper presents evidence that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate. We reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in Germany before and after thestart of Stage III of the EMU. The analysis of the German experience is useful because it allows us to isolate the effects on the overnight rate of these particular instruments of monetary policy. To show that this outcome is a general conclusion and not a particular result of the German market, we develop a theoretical model of reserve management which isable to reproduce our empirical findings.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Fiat money, intrinsic properties and government transaction policy

Why do people coordinate on the use of valueless piecesof paper as generally accepted money? A possible answeris that these objects have intrinsic properties that make them better candidates to be used as media of exchange. Another answer stresses the fact that unconvertible fiat money will not easily appear unless there is a centralized institution that favors its use.The main objective of the paper is to analyze these questions. In order to do this, we take a model of commodity money in which fiat money does not play any significant role and modify it to examine under which circumstances fiat money might come to circulate as medium of exchange. Some of the results obtained from the model differ in a rather substantial way from previous related literature.

The new Keynesian approach to monetary policy analysis: Lessons and new directions

I discuss several lessons regarding the design and conduct of monetary policy that have emerged out of the New Keynesian research program. Those lessons include the bene.ts of price stability, the gains from commitment about future policies, the importance of nat-ural variables as benchmarks for policy, and the bene.ts of a credible anti-inflationary stance. I also point to one challenge facing NK modelling efforts: the need to come up with relevant sources of policy tradeoffs. A potentially useful approach to meeting that challenge, based on the introduction of real imperfections, is presented.

Governor's Office of Drug Control Policy, Strategic Plan, 2003-2008

This report outlines the strategic plan for Governor's Office of Drug Control Policy, goals and mission.

The impact of Economics on health policy and management in Spain

BackgroundDespite the intrinsic value of scientific disciplines, such as Economics, it is appropriate to gauge the impact of its applications on social welfare, or at least Health Economics (HE) case- its influence on health policy and management.MethodsThe three relevant features of knowledge (production, diffusion and application) are analyzed, more from an emic perspective the one used in Anthropology relying on the experience of the members of a culture- than from an etic approach seated on material descriptions and dubious statistics.ResultsThe soundness of the principles and results of HE depends on its disciplinary foundations,whereas its relevance than does not imply translation into practice- is more linked with the problems studied. Important contributions from Economics to the health sphere are recorded.HE in Spain ranks seventh in the world despite the relatively minor HE contents of its clinical and health services research journals.HE has in Spain more presence than influence, having failed to impregnate sufficiently thedaily events.ConclusionsHE knowledge required by a politician, a health manager or a clinician is rather limited; the main impact of HE could be to develop their intuition and awareness.

The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baselinetheoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. Wealso characterize the gains from making credible commitments to fightinflation. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that gains from commitment may emerge even in the central bank is not trying toinadvisedly push output above its natural level. We also consider theimplications of frictions such as imperfect information.

Bank liquidity, interbank markets and monetary policy

A major lesson of the recent financial crisis is that the interbank lending marketis crucial for banks facing large uncertainty regarding their liquidity needs. Thispaper studies the efficiency of the interbank lending market in allocating funds. Weconsider two different types of liquidity shocks leading to different implications foroptimal policy by the central bank. We show that, when confronted with a distributional liquidity-shock crisis that causes a large disparity in the liquidity held amongbanks, the central bank should lower the interbank rate. This view implies that thetraditional tenet prescribing the separation between prudential regulation and monetary policy should be abandoned. In addition, we show that, during an aggregateliquidity crisis, central banks should manage the aggregate volume of liquidity. Twodifferent instruments, interest rates and liquidity injection, are therefore required tocope with the two different types of liquidity shocks. Finally, we show that failureto cut interest rates during a crisis erodes financial stability by increasing the riskof bank runs.

Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Monetary policy and unemployment

Much recent research has focused on the development and analysisof extensions of the New Keynesian framework that model labor marketfrictions and unemployment explicitly. The present paper describessome of the essential ingredients and properties of those models, andtheir implications for monetary policy.