Input diffusion and the evolution of production networks

What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted in the productionof new or improved goods? Why are some inputs much more prominent than others? We modelthe evolution of input linkages as a process where new producers first search for potentially usefulinputs and then decide which ones to adopt. A new product initially draws a set of 'essentialsuppliers'. The search stage is then confined to the network neighborhood of the latter, i.e., to theinputs used by the essential suppliers. The adoption decision is driven by a tradeoff between thebenefits accruing from input variety and the costs of input adoption. This has important implicationsfor the number of forward linkages that a product (input variety) develops over time. Inputdiffusion is fostered by network centrality ? an input that is initially represented in many networkneighborhoods is subsequently more likely to be adopted. This mechanism also delivers a powerlaw distribution of forward linkages. Our predictions continue to hold when varieties are aggregatedinto sectors. We can thus test them, using detailed sectoral US input-output tables. We showthat initial network proximity of a sector in 1967 significantly increases the likelihood of adoptionthroughout the subsequent four decades. The same is true for rapid productivity growth in aninput-producing sector. Our empirical results highlight two conditions for new products to becomecentral nodes: initial network proximity to prospective adopters, and technological progress thatreduces their relative price. Semiconductors met both conditions.

Estimação de parâmetros genéticos e predição de valor genético aditivo de trigo utilizando modelos mistos

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar os parâmetros genéticos e predizer o valor genético de populações e indivíduos oriundos de populações segregantes de trigo, com o uso da metodologia de modelos mistos ("restricted maximum likelihood"/"best linear unbiased prediction", REML/BLUP). Trinta e seis populações segregantes de trigo e quatro controles foram avaliados na geração F3, em delineamento de blocos ao acaso, com informações de indivíduo retiradas de dentro das parcelas. Os caracteres avaliados foram: produção de grãos, índice de colheita, número de perfilhos e altura de planta. Observou-se a existência de variabilidade genética entre populações em todos os caracteres avaliados. A herdabilidade média variou de 39,15 a 92,78%, e a acurácia, de 62,57 a 96,32%, na seleção de populações. A herdabilidade individual no sentido restrito foi baixa dentro das populações, em todos os caracteres. A acurácia na seleção individual apresentou magnitude média, quanto ao caráter altura de plantas, e baixa quanto aos demais caracteres. A herdabilidade individual contribui para maior ganho nos caracteres altura de planta e índice de colheita com o uso do BLUP individual, em comparação ao BLUP de populações. As populações segregantes Embrapa22/BRS207, Embrapa22/VI98053, Embrapa22/IVI01041, BRS254/BRS207, BRS254/VI98053, BRS254/UFVT1Pioneiro e BRS264/BRS207 destacam-se por apresentar valor genético aditivo elevado em dois ou mais caracteres.

Can Orthopantomography be used as a tool for screening of carotid atheromatous pathology and thus be used to help reduce the prevalence of ischemic stroke within the population?

Objective: To assess the possibility of Dentists being able to screen patients with higher risk of vascular diseases. Materials: Kodak 8000C Orthopantomographer, eco-Doppler Logiq-500 General Electric at the Lisbon Hospital Particular. Methods: Assessment of orthopantomographies made to 142 patients aged 50 or more, as well as the existing risk factors. Conduction of carotid eco-Doppler to patients who appear to have calcified plaques of the atheroma. Results: Strong dependence between dichotomised age and having the pathology (p = 0.02).Smokers are twice more likely to present plaques (OR= 2). Being hypertensive increases in about 1.4 the likelihood of having a stroke (OR= 1.4). Of the 27 individuals who presented calcifications in the Orthopantomography, they were all submitted to an eco-Doppler and 21 had the pathology confirmed. 27 individuals, who did not show any plaques in the Orthopantomography, were randomly selected to be the control group. They were submitted to an eco-Doppler. And 23 confirmed the non-existence of plaques. Conclusions: Orthopantomography used for assessing the oral cavity reveals more information which should be the object of the Dentist"s attention

Influence of HLA-C expression level on HIV control.

A variant upstream of human leukocyte antigen C (HLA-C) shows the most significant genome-wide effect on HIV control in European Americans and is also associated with the level of HLA-C expression. We characterized the differential cell surface expression levels of all common HLA-C allotypes and tested directly for effects of HLA-C expression on outcomes of HIV infection in 5243 individuals. Increasing HLA-C expression was associated with protection against multiple outcomes independently of individual HLA allelic effects in both African and European Americans, regardless of their distinct HLA-C frequencies and linkage relationships with HLA-B and HLA-A. Higher HLA-C expression was correlated with increased likelihood of cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses and frequency of viral escape mutation. In contrast, high HLA-C expression had a deleterious effect in Crohn's disease, suggesting a broader influence of HLA expression levels in human disease.

Multiplication of an ancestral gene encoding secreted fungalysin preceded species differentiation in the dermatophytes Trichophyton and Microsporum.

Dermatophytes are human and animal pathogenic fungi which cause cutaneous infections and grow exclusively in the stratum corneum, nails and hair. In a culture medium containing soy proteins as sole nitrogen source a substantial proteolytic activity was secreted by Trichophyton rubrum, Trichophyton mentagrophytes and Microsporum canis. This proteolytic activity was 55-75 % inhibited by o-phenanthroline, attesting that metalloproteases were secreted by all three species. Using a consensus probe constructed on previously characterized genes encoding metalloproteases (MEP) of the M36 fungalysin family in Aspergillus fumigatus, Aspergillus oryzae and M. canis, a five-member MEP family was isolated from genomic libraries of T. rubrum, T. mentagrophytes and M. canis. A phylogenetic analysis of genomic and protein sequences revealed a robust tree consisting of five main clades, each of them including a MEP sequence type from each dermatophyte species. Each MEP type was remarkably conserved across species (72-97 % amino acid sequence identity). The tree topology clearly indicated that the multiplication of MEP genes in dermatophytes occurred prior to species divergence. In culture medium containing soy proteins as a sole nitrogen source secreted Meps accounted for 19-36 % of total secreted protein extracts; characterization of protein bands by proteolysis and mass spectrometry revealed that the three dermatophyte species secreted two Meps (Mep3 and Mep4) encoded by orthologous genes.

Diabetes mellitus, periapical inflammation and endodontic treatment outcome

The possible connection between chronic oral inflammatory processes, such as apical periodontitis and periodontal disease (PD), and systemic health is one of the most interesting aspects faced by the medical and dental scientific community. Chronic apical periodontitis shares important characteristics with PD: 1) both are chronic infections of the oral cavity, 2) the Gram-negative anaerobic microbiota found in both diseases is comparable, and 3) in both infectious processes increased local levels of inflammatory mediators may have an impact on systemic levels. One of the systemic disorders linked to PD is diabetes mellitus (DM); is therefore plausible to assume that chronic apical periodontitis and endodontic treatment are also associated with DM. The status of knowledge regarding the relationship between DM and endodontics is reviewed. Upon review, we conclude that there are data in the literature that associate DM with a higher prevalence of periapical lesions, greater size of the osteolityc lesions, greater likelihood of asymptomatic infections and worse prognosis for root filled teeth. The results of some studies suggest that periapical disease may contribute to diabetic metabolic dyscontrol

Pulmonary embolism severity index and troponin testing for the selection of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Summary Background: The combination of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and troponin testing could help physicians identify appropriate patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for early hospital discharge. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a total of 567 patients from a single center registry with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. On the basis of the PESI, each patient was classified into 1 of 5 classes (I to V). At the time of hospital admission, patients had troponin I (cTnI) levels measured. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality within 30 days after diagnosis. We calculated the mortality rates in 4 patient groups: group 1: PESI class I-II plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 2: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 3: PESI classes I-II plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1); and group 4: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1). Results: The study cohort had a 30-day mortality of 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.6 to 12.5%). Mortality rates in the 4 groups were 1.3%, 14.2%, 0% and 15.4%, respectively. Compared to non-elevated cTnl, the low-risk PESI had a higher negative predictive value (NPV) (98.9% vs 90.8%) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.1 vs 0.9) for predicting mortality. The addition of non-elevated cTnI to low-risk PESI did not improve the NPV or the NLR compared to either test alone. Conclusions: Compared to cTnl testing, PESI classification more accurately identified patients with PE who are at low risk of all-cause death within 30-days of presentation.

Automatic Comparison and Evaluation of Impressions Left by a Firearm on Fired Cartridge Cases

Recent years have been characterized by a series of publications in the field of firearms investigation questioning the reliability and objectivity of such examination. This research investigates new solutions to decrease the subjective component affecting the evaluation that follows the comparison of impressions left by a firearm on the surface of spent cartridge cases. An automatic comparison system based on 3D measurements has been developed and coupled to a bivariate evaluative model allowing assigning likelihood ratios. Based on a dataset of 79 pistols (all SIG Sauer 9 mm Luger caliber), the system shows a very high discriminating power and the LRs that it provides are very indicative of the true state under both the prosecution and the defense propositions. For example, likelihood ratios exceeding a billion are predominantly obtained when impressions originating from the same source are compared. The system is also characterized by relatively low rates (≤1%) of misleading evidence depending on the firearm considered.

Robust Estimators of the Generalized Log-Gamma Distribution

We propose robust estimators of the generalized log-gamma distribution and, more generally, of location-shape-scale families of distributions. A (weighted) Q tau estimator minimizes a tau scale of the differences between empirical and theoretical quantiles. It is n(1/2) consistent; unfortunately, it is not asymptotically normal and, therefore, inconvenient for inference. However, it is a convenient starting point for a one-step weighted likelihood estimator, where the weights are based on a disparity measure between the model density and a kernel density estimate. The one-step weighted likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and fully efficient under the model. It is also highly robust under outlier contamination. Supplementary materials are available online.

Krikothyreotomie mit dem "Quicktrach"-Koniotomiebesteck [Cricothyreotomy using the Quicktrach coniotomy instrument set].

Percutaneous cricothyroidotomy may be a lifesaving procedure for airway obstruction, which cannot be relieved by endotracheal intubation and can be performed with specially designed instruments. A new device, the "Quicktrach", was evaluated by an anatomical preparation, flow and resistance measurements, and puncture of the cricothyroid membrane in 55 corpses. The size of the parts of the instrument (needle, plastic cannula, depth gauge) in relation to the size of the larynx is adequate, thus there is little likelihood of perforation of the posterior wall of the larynx. Resistance of the plastic cannula is sufficiently low to allow for adequate ventilation. The duration of time until the cannula is positioned properly in the trachea is significantly shorter, when an incision prior to the puncture is done (83 +/- 88 seconds without incision versus 35 +/- 41 seconds with incision; mean +/- SD). The "Quicktrach" is easy to apply even by inexperienced persons. The incidence of damage to the larynx (lesions including fractures of the thyroid, cricoid and 1. tracheal cartilage in 18%; soft tissue injury in 9%) is relatively high, however considering the live saving character of the procedure these numbers appear to be acceptable. Technical problems which occur with the use of the device are discussed and suggestions for improvement are made.

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

Cannabis use and other illicit drug use: Do subjective experiences during first cannabis use increase the probability of using illicit drug use?

Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.

Análisis de modelos de perfil del fuste y estudio de la cilindricidad para tres clones de chopo (Populus x euramericana) en Navarra

El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo principal analizar tres funciones de perfil del fuste sobre tres clones de Populus x euramericana (Canadá Blanco, I-214 y MC) en la Comunidad Foral de Navarra para elaborar una tarifa de cubicación con clasificación de volumen. Para minimizar el efecto de la autocorrelación entre los residuos se emplea una estructura de error continua autorregresiva de orden 2 o de orden 3 en función del clon analizado. Por otra parte, se compara el coeficiente local de forma de cada uno de los clones estudiados mediante dos metodologías: el análisis de la varianza de la estimación individual de dicho coeficiente y el contraste del estadístico de máxima verosimilitud entre ajustes, resultando ser el clon Canadá el más cónico de los tres. Los datos utilizados provienen de 143 chopos de plantaciones coetáneas y con mismo marco de plantación (marco real de 4,5 × 4,5 m).

Career decision making, stability and actualization of career intentions : the case of entrepreneurial intentions

Career counselors are often concerned with stability and likelihood of implementation of clients' career intentions. It is often assumed that the status in career decision making (CDM) is one likely indicator; yet, empirical support for this assumption is sparse. The present study focused on entrepreneurial career intentions (EI) and showed that German university students (N = 1,221), with high EI can be found in very different empirically derived CDM statuses that range from preconcern to mature decidedness. Longitudinal analyses (n = 561) showed that career choice foreclosure (high decidedness/low exploration) related to more EI stability and that mature decidedness (high decidedness/high exploration) amplified effects of EI on opportunity identification, a form of EI actualization. The results imply that CDM statuses are useful to estimate stability and actualization of career intentions.

Patterns and factors associated with low adherence to psychotropic medications during pregnancy-a cross-sectional, multinational web-based study.

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have explored how closely women follow their psychotropic drug regimens during pregnancy. This study aimed to explore patterns of and factors associated with low adherence to psychotropic medication during pregnancy. METHODS: Multinational web-based study was performed in 18 countries in Europe, North America, and Australia. Uniform data collection was ensured via an electronic questionnaire. Pregnant women were eligible to participate. Adherence was measured via the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). The Beliefs about Prescribed Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ-specific), the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), and a numeric rating scale were utilized to measure women's beliefs, depressive symptoms, and antidepressant risk perception, respectively. Participants reporting use of psychotropic medication during pregnancy (n = 160) were included in the analysis. RESULTS: On the basis of the MMAS-8, 78 of 160 women (48.8%, 95% CI: 41.1-56.4%) demonstrated low adherence during pregnancy. The rates of low adherence were 51.3% for medication for anxiety, 47.2% for depression, and 42.9% for other psychiatric disorders. Smoking during pregnancy, elevated antidepressant risk perception (risk≥6), and depressive symptoms were associated with a significant 3.9-, 2.3-, and 2.5-fold increased likelihood of low medication adherence, respectively. Women on psychotropic polytherapy were less likely to demonstrate low adherence. The belief that the benefit of pharmacotherapy outweighed the risks positively correlated (r = .282) with higher medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one of two pregnant women using psychotropic medication demonstrated low adherence in pregnancy. Life-style factors, risk perception, depressive symptoms, and individual beliefs are important factors related to adherence to psychotropic medication in pregnancy.