Short-term traffic volume forecasting : a k-nearest neighbor approach enhanced by constrained linearly sewing principle component algorithm

To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

Position paper : benchmarking the performance of global and emerging knowledge cities

Knowledge-based development has become a new urban policy approach for the competitive cities of the global knowledge economy era. For those cities seeking a knowledge-based development, benchmarking is an essential prerequisite for informed and strategic vision and policy making to achieve a prosperous development. Nevertheless, benchmarked knowledge-based development performance analysis of global and emerging knowledge cities is an understudied area. This paper aims to contribute to the field by introducing the methodology of a novel performance assessment model—that is the Knowledge-Based Urban Development Assessment Model—and providing lessons from the application of the model in an international knowledge city performance analysis study. The assessment model puts renowned global and emerging knowledge cities—that are Birmingham, Boston, Brisbane, Helsinki, Istanbul, Manchester, Melbourne, San Francisco, Sydney, Toronto, and Vancouver—under the knowledge-based development microscope. The results of the analysis provide internationally benchmarked snapshot of the degree of achievements in various knowledge-based urban development performance areas of the investigated knowledge cities, and reveals insightful lessons on scrutinizing the global perspectives on knowledge-based development of cities.

Empirical approaches in knowledge city research

In the 21st century, it has become apparent that ‘knowledge’ is a major factor of postmodern production (Yigitcanlar et al., 2007). Beyond this, in today’s rapidly globalizing world, knowledge, along with the social and technological settings, is seen as a key to secure economic prosperity and quality of life (Yigitcanlar et al., 2008a). However, limiting the benefits of a ‘knowledge-based development’ to only economic gains—and to a degree to social ones—is quite a narrow sighted view (Yigitcanlar et al., 2008b). Thus, the concept of ‘knowledge-based urban development’ is coined to bring economic prosperity, environmental sustainability, a just socio-spatial order and good governance to cities, and as a result producing a purposefully designed city—i.e., ‘knowledge city’—generating positive environmental and governance outcomes as well as economic and societal ones (Yigitcanlar, 2011; Carrillo et al., 2014).

Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation is associated with a decreased folate status in women of childbearing age

In vitro studies indicate that folate in collected human blood is vulnerable to degradation after exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. This has raised concerns about folate depletion in individuals with high sun exposure. Here, we investigate the association between personal solar UV radiation exposure and serum folate concentration, using a three-week prospective study that was undertaken in females aged 18–47 years in Brisbane, Australia (153 E, 27 S). Following two weeks of supplementation with 500 μg of folic acid daily, the change in serum folate status was assessed over a 7-day period of measured personal sun exposure. Compared to participants with personal UV exposures of <200 Joules per day, participants with personal UV exposures of 200–599 and >600 Joules per day had significantly higher depletion of serum folate (p = 0.015). Multivariable analysis revealed personal UV exposure as the strongest predictor accounting for 20% of the overall change in serum folate (Standardised B = −0.49; t = −3.75; p = <0.01). These data show that increasing solar UV radiation exposures reduces the effectiveness of folic acid supplementation. The consequences of this association may be most pronounced for vulnerable individuals, such as women who are pregnant or of childbearing age with high sun exposures.

Response variation of optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters

This study investigates the variability in response of optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters (OSLDs). Examining the source of sensitivity variations in these dosimeters allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the Landauer nanoDots and their potential for current and future applications. In this work, OSLDs were scanned with a MicroCT scanner to determine potential sources for the variation in relative sensitivity across a selection of Landauer nanoDot dosimeters. Specifically, the correlation between a dosimeters relative sensitivity and the loading density of Al2O3:C powder was determined. When extrapolating the sensitive volume's radiodensity from the CT data, it was shown that there is a non-uniform distribution in crystal growth. It was calculated that a 0.05% change in the nominal volume of the chip produces a 1% change in the overall response. Additionally, the ‘true’ volume of an OSLD's sensitive material is, on average, 18% less than that which has been reported in literature, mainly due to the presence of air cavities in the material's structure. This work demonstrated that the amount of sensitive material is approximately linked to the total correction factor.

Comparing methods for modelling spreading cell fronts

Spreading cell fronts play an essential role in many physiological processes. Classically, models of this process are based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation; however, such continuum representations are not always suitable as they do not explicitly represent behaviour at the level of individual cells. Additionally, many models examine only the large time asymptotic behaviour, where a travelling wave front with a constant speed has been established. Many experiments, such as a scratch assay, never display this asymptotic behaviour, and in these cases the transient behaviour must be taken into account. We examine the transient and asymptotic behaviour of moving cell fronts using techniques that go beyond the continuum approximation via a volume-excluding birth-migration process on a regular one-dimensional lattice. We approximate the averaged discrete results using three methods: (i) mean-field, (ii) pair-wise, and (iii) one-hole approximations. We discuss the performace of these methods, in comparison to the averaged discrete results, for a range of parameter space, examining both the transient and asymptotic behaviours. The one-hole approximation, based on techniques from statistical physics, is not capable of predicting transient behaviour but provides excellent agreement with the asymptotic behaviour of the averaged discrete results, provided that cells are proliferating fast enough relative to their rate of migration. The mean-field and pair-wise approximations give indistinguishable asymptotic results, which agree with the averaged discrete results when cells are migrating much more rapidly than they are proliferating. The pair-wise approximation performs better in the transient region than does the mean-field, despite having the same asymptotic behaviour. Our results show that each approximation only works in specific situations, thus we must be careful to use a suitable approximation for a given system, otherwise inaccurate predictions could be made.

Modifying behaviour to reduce over-speeding in work-related drivers : an objective approach

The goal of this study was to utilise an objective measurement tool, via an on-board Diagnostic tool (OBDII), to explore the effectiveness of a behaviour modification intervention designed to reduce over-speed violations in a group of work-related drivers. It was predicted that over-speed violations would be decreased following participation in a behaviour modification intervention where drivers received weekly feedback on their speeding performance and goal setting exercises. The final analysis included the on-road behaviour of 16 drivers, all of whom completed each stage of the intervention program. As predicted, over-speed violations significantly decreased from pre-test to post-test, after controlling for kilometres driven. These findings offer practical guidance for industry in developing interventions designed to improve work-related driving behaviour.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

HeatWave : a handheld 3D thermography system for energy auditing

Energy auditing is an effective but costly approach for reducing the long-term energy consumption of buildings. When well-executed, energy loss can be quickly identified in the building structure and its subsystems. This then presents opportunities for improving energy efficiency. We present a low-cost, portable technology called "HeatWave" which allows non-experts to generate detailed 3D surface temperature models for energy auditing. This handheld 3D thermography system consists of two commercially available imaging sensors and a set of software algorithms which can be run on a laptop. The 3D model can be visualized in real-time by the operator so that they can monitor their degree of coverage as the sensors are used to capture data. In addition, results can be analyzed offline using the proposed "Spectra" multispectral visualization toolbox. The presence of surface temperature data in the generated 3D model enables the operator to easily identify and measure thermal irregularities such as thermal bridges, insulation leaks, moisture build-up and HVAC faults. Moreover, 3D models generated from subsequent audits of the same environment can be automatically compared to detect temporal changes in conditions and energy use over time.

Did you see that? Dissociating advanced visual information and ball flight constrains perception and action processes during one-handed catching

The integration of separate, yet complimentary, cortical pathways appears to play a role in visual perception and action when intercepting objects. The ventral system is responsible for object recognition and identification, while the dorsal system facilitates continuous regulation of action. This dual-system model implies that empirically manipulating different visual information sources during performance of an interceptive action might lead to the emergence of distinct gaze and movement pattern profiles. To test this idea, we recorded hand kinematics and eye movements of participants as they attempted to catch balls projected from a novel apparatus that synchronised or de-synchronised accompanying video images of a throwing action and ball trajectory. Results revealed that ball catching performance was less successful when patterns of hand movements and gaze behaviours were constrained by the absence of advanced perceptual information from the thrower's actions. Under these task constraints, participants began tracking the ball later, followed less of its trajectory, and adapted their actions by initiating movements later and moving the hand faster. There were no performance differences when the throwing action image and ball speed were synchronised or de-synchronised since hand movements were closely linked to information from ball trajectory. Results are interpreted relative to the two-visual system hypothesis, demonstrating that accurate interception requires integration of advanced visual information from kinematics of the throwing action and from ball flight trajectory.

Distinguishing between mechanisms of cell aggregation using pair-correlation functions

Many cell types form clumps or aggregates when cultured in vitro through a variety of mechanisms including rapid cell proliferation, chemotaxis, or direct cell-to-cell contact. In this paper we develop an agent-based model to explore the formation of aggregates in cultures where cells are initially distributed uniformly, at random, on a two-dimensional substrate. Our model includes unbiased random cell motion, together with two mechanisms which can produce cell aggregates: (i) rapid cell proliferation, and (ii) a biased cell motility mechanism where cells can sense other cells within a finite range, and will tend to move towards areas with higher numbers of cells. We then introduce a pair-correlation function which allows us to quantify aspects of the spatial patterns produced by our agent-based model. In particular, these pair-correlation functions are able to detect differences between domains populated uniformly at random (i.e. at the exclusion complete spatial randomness (ECSR) state) and those where the proliferation and biased motion rules have been employed - even when such differences are not obvious to the naked eye. The pair-correlation function can also detect the emergence of a characteristic inter-aggregate distance which occurs when the biased motion mechanism is dominant, and is not observed when cell proliferation is the main mechanism of aggregate formation. This suggests that applying the pair-correlation function to experimental images of cell aggregates may provide information about the mechanism associated with observed aggregates. As a proof of concept, we perform such analysis for images of cancer cell aggregates, which are known to be associated with rapid proliferation. The results of our analysis are consistent with the predictions of the proliferation-based simulations, which supports the potential usefulness of pair correlation functions for providing insight into the mechanisms of aggregate formation.

Acticoat™ : A cost-effective and evidence-based dressing strategy [Letter to the Editor]

We thank Dr. Burd et al. for taking an interest in our paper [1]. The retrospective cohort study was performed and published for two reasons. Firstly, we wished to compare and contrast the use of Acticoat™ and Silvazine™, and secondly we wished to demonstrate how one's practice can be dramatically altered by a change in dressing used. We found that Acticoat™ was safe and easy to use, caused less trauma to patients, required less frequent dressing changes and enabled treatment to be conducted on an outpatient, rather than an inpatient basis. During the period of Acticoat™ treatment we also saw a dramatic reduction in grafting requirements and also in the need for long-term scar management. Burd et al. correctly state that silver-based dressings are now more widely available, however many burn centres in the world continue to use silver sulphadiazine with daily baths. We therefore feel that a comparison is very relevant and useful. Prospective, randomised clinical trials of a range of silver-based dressings would indeed be useful, and hopefully Dr. Burd and colleagues will take up their own suggestion and perform these studies...

Narratives of healing: a case study of a young Liberian refugee settled in Australia

The Tree of Life group program is a narrative-based expressive arts intervention, designed to target the psychological difficulties faced by young people from refugee backgrounds. This study utilised a case study methodology to investigate the experience of a single adolescent from a Liberian background resettled in Australia, who participated in a manualised version of the Tree of Life program. The case study aimed to identify the underlying therapeutic processes that enabled the participant to adopt a preferred self-narrative. The participant was observed to demonstrate positive gains as a result of program participation. Five therapeutic factors were identified as particularly salient to the program’s success: the exploration of alternative stories of self; the fostering of group cohesion; the provision of corrective emotional experiences; the experience of outsider witnesses; and the instillation of hope. These factors were discussed in relation to working with young people from refugee backgrounds. Recommendations for future implementation of the Tree of Life program are provided.

Inhibition of homogenous formation of calcium carbonate by poly (acrylic acid). The effect of molar mass and end-group functionality

The ability of poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) with different end groups and molar masses prepared by Atom Transfer Radical Polymerization (ATRP) to inhibit the formation of calcium carbonate scale at low and elevated temperatures was investigated. Inhibition of CaCO3 deposition was affected by the hydrophobicity of the end groups of PAA, with the greatest inhibition seen for PAA with hydrophobic end groups of moderate size (6–10 carbons). The morphologies of CaCO3 crystals were significantly distorted in the presence of these PAAs. The smallest morphological change was in the presence of PAA with long hydrophobic end groups (16 carbons) and the relative inhibition observed for all species were in the same order at 30 °C and 100 °C. As well as distorting morphologies, the scale inhibitors appeared to stabilize the less thermodynamically favorable polymorph, vaterite, to a degree proportional to their ability to inhibit precipitation.

Numerical modelling of load bearing light gauge steel frame wall systems exposed to realistic design fires

Fire safety has become an important part in structural design due to the ever increasing loss of properties and lives during fires. Conventionally the fire rating of load bearing wall systems made of Light gauge Steel Frames (LSF) is determined using fire tests based on the standard time-temperature curve in ISO834 [1]. However, modern commercial and residential buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, which mean considerably high fuel loads. Hence a detailed fire research study into the fire performance of LSF walls was undertaken using realistic design fire curves developed based on Eurocode parametric [2] and Barnett’s BFD [3] curves using both full scale fire tests and numerical studies. It included LSF walls without cavity insulation, and the recently developed externally insulated composite panel system. This paper presents the details of finite element models developed to simulate the full scale fire tests of LSF wall panels under realistic design fires. Finite element models of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires were developed, and analysed under both transient and steady state fire conditions using the measured stud time-temperature curves. Transient state analyses were performed to simulate fire test conditions while steady state analyses were performed to obtain the load ratio versus time and failure temperature curves of LSF walls. Details of the developed finite element models and the results including the axial deformation and lateral deflection versus time curves, and the stud failure modes and times are presented in this paper. Comparison with fire test results demonstrate the ability of developed finite element models to predict the performance and fire resistance ratings of LSF walls under realistic design fires.