Current genetic data do not improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the CoLaus study.

CONTEXT: Several genetic risk scores to identify asymptomatic subjects at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been proposed, but it is unclear whether they add extra information to risk scores based on clinical and biological data. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to assess the extra clinical value of genetic risk scores in predicting the occurrence of T2DM. DESIGN: This was a prospective study, with a mean follow-up time of 5 yr. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The study included 2824 nondiabetic participants (1548 women, 52 ± 10 yr). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Six genetic risk scores for T2DM were tested. Four were derived from the literature and two were created combining all (n = 24) or shared (n = 9) single-nucleotide polymorphisms of the previous scores. A previously validated clinic + biological risk score for T2DM was used as reference. RESULTS: Two hundred seven participants (7.3%) developed T2DM during follow-up. On bivariate analysis, no differences were found for all but one genetic score between nondiabetic and diabetic participants. After adjusting for the validated clinic + biological risk score, none of the genetic scores improved discrimination, as assessed by changes in the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (range -0.4 to -0.1%), sensitivity (-2.9 to -1.0%), specificity (0.0-0.1%), and positive (-6.6 to +0.7%) and negative (-0.2 to 0.0%) predictive values. Similarly, no improvement in T2DM risk prediction was found: net reclassification index ranging from -5.3 to -1.6% and nonsignificant (P ≥ 0.49) integrated discrimination improvement. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, adding genetic information to a previously validated clinic + biological score does not seem to improve the prediction of T2DM.

Reducing the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET)

Evidence Review 3 - Reducing the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) Briefing 3 - Reducing the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, examine how to help young people into employment, education or training. They describe the relationship between being NEET and health; inequalities in prevalence of being NEET; and the scale of the problem. The papers show that being NEET, particularly for prolonged periods, is associated with negative effects on health and a range of other outcomes. Furthermore, the chances of becoming NEET are not equally or randomly distributed throughout society – those who are relatively disadvantaged, from poor backgrounds, or who have had negative experiences at school are more likely to spend some time being NEET. The papers also propose actions that can be taken at a local level in order to reduce the proportion of young people who are NEET. There is good evidence on what works in order to enable and support young people to enter employment, education and training. Taking action to reduce NEET levels is both possible and necessary – both to ensure young people have opportunities, and also as an important way to improve public health and reduce inequalities. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Building Children and Young People's Resilience in Schools

Evidence Review 2 - Building children and young people's resilience in schools Briefing 2 - Building children and young people's resilience in schools This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the role of schools in building children and young people’s resilience and capabilities. They provide a summary of evidence about the effect of resilience on health, the unequal distribution of resilience and its contribution to levels of health inequalities. The review outlines the potential actions that can be taken in schools in order to build resilience for all children and young people and reduce inequalities in resilience. Throughout, a social determinants approach to resilience is taken. Children and young people’s individual characteristics are seen as shaped by, and related to, inequities in power, money and resources, and the conditions in which they are born, grow, live, and in which they will work and age. Family and community resilience are highly significant and similarly shaped by wider social and economic factors. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

The IC3D classification of the corneal dystrophies.

BACKGROUND: The recent availability of genetic analyses has demonstrated the shortcomings of the current phenotypic method of corneal dystrophy classification. Abnormalities in different genes can cause a single phenotype, whereas different defects in a single gene can cause different phenotypes. Some disorders termed corneal dystrophies do not appear to have a genetic basis. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a new classification system for corneal dystrophies, integrating up-to-date information on phenotypic description, pathologic examination, and genetic analysis. METHODS: The International Committee for Classification of Corneal Dystrophies (IC3D) was created to devise a current and accurate nomenclature. RESULTS: This anatomic classification continues to organize dystrophies according to the level chiefly affected. Each dystrophy has a template summarizing genetic, clinical, and pathologic information. A category number from 1 through 4 is assigned, reflecting the level of evidence supporting the existence of a given dystrophy. The most defined dystrophies belong to category 1 (a well-defined corneal dystrophy in which a gene has been mapped and identified and specific mutations are known) and the least defined belong to category 4 (a suspected dystrophy where the clinical and genetic evidence is not yet convincing). The nomenclature may be updated over time as new information regarding the dystrophies becomes available. CONCLUSIONS: The IC3D Classification of Corneal Dystrophies is a new classification system that incorporates many aspects of the traditional definitions of corneal dystrophies with new genetic, clinical, and pathologic information. Standardized templates provide key information that includes a level of evidence for there being a corneal dystrophy. The system is user-friendly and upgradeable and can be retrieved on the website www.corneasociety.org/ic3d.

Cannabis use in a Swiss male prison: qualitative study exploring detainees' and staffs' perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Several studies suggest a high prevalence of cannabis use before and during imprisonment, but subjective perspectives of detainees and staff towards its use in prison are lacking. This issue was explored in the framework of an observational study addressing tobacco use in three Swiss prisons in 2009 and 2010 that involved multiple strands (quantitative and qualitative components). This article presents qualitative data on cannabis use collected in one of the settings. METHODS: We used in-depth semi-structured interviews with both detainees and staff to explore their attitudes towards cannabis in one post-trial male Swiss prison. We performed specific coding and thematic analysis for cannabis with the support of ATLAS.ti, compared detainees' and staff's opinions, and considered the results with regard to drug policy in prison in general. RESULTS: 58 participants (31 male offenders, mean age 35 years, and 27 prison staff, mean age 46 years, 33% female) were interviewed. Detainees estimated the current use of cannabis use to be as high as 80%, and staff 50%. Participants showed similar opinions on effects of cannabis use that were described both at individual and institutional levels: analgesic, calming, self-help to go through the prison experience, relieve stress, facilitate sleep, prevent violence, and social pacifier. They also mentioned negative consequences of cannabis use (sleepiness, decreased perception of danger and social isolation), and dissatisfaction regarding the ongoing ambiguous situation where cannabis is forbidden but detection in the urine was not sanctioned. However, the introduction of a more restrictive regulation induced fear of violence, increased trafficking and a shift to other drug use. CONCLUSION: Although illegal, cannabis use is clearly involved in daily life in prison. A clearer and comprehensive policy addressing cannabis is needed, including appropriate measures tailored to individual users. To sustain a calm and safe environment in prison, means other than substance or medication use are required.

Use of nicotine substitute prescribed at hourly plus ab libitum intake or ad libitum for heavy smokers willing to quit: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of instructional guidance in the regular use of use nicotine nasal spray (NNS) on the true use of NNS during the first three weeks of smoking cessation for heavy smokers who are willing to quit. METHODS: This randomized, open, controlled trial included 50 patients who were heavy smokers, were willing to quit, and attending an academic outpatient clinic in Western Switzerland. Patients were randomised to instruction on NNS use as "ad libitum" (administration whenever cravings appear; control group) or to use NNS when craving appears and at least every hour when awake (intervention group). Intakes were monitored using an electronic device fixed in the spray unit (MDILog) during the first three weeks of use. Self reported abstinence from smoking at six months was confirmed by expired-air carbon monoxide. Using intention-to-treat analysis, random-effect GLS regression was used to calculate the mean difference of daily doses between groups controlling for lack of independence between measures from the same individual. RESULTS: One patient was lost to follow-up. At baseline randomization, the group receiving instruction to use NNS hourly included more women, patients with previous desires to quit, and patients with more psychiatric comorbidities and less somatic complaints compared to the group instructed to use NNS with cravings (group imbalance). Both groups self-administered more than the daily recommended dosage of 8 uses. Mean daily usage was 13.6 dose/day and 11.1 dose/day for the group instructed to use NNS hourly and with cravings, respectively. Adjusting for baseline imbalance, the increased daily doses in the intervention group (hourly use) remained nonsignificant compared to ad libitum use (-0.5 dose/day; CI 95% -6.2; 5.3, from day 1 to day 7; and 2.3 dose/day; CI 95% -5.4; 10.0, from day 8 to day 21). Instructing patients to use the NNS daily had no effect on smoking cessation at six months (RR = 0.69; CI 95% 0.34; 1.39). CONCLUSION: Heavy smokers willing to quit use NNS frequently, regardless of the instructions given. Recommending the use of NNS only when craving appears for heavy smokers willing to quit seems acceptable compared to prescribing hourly administration. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00861276.

Delirium: draft full guideline for consultation

A clinical practice guideline on Delirium is being developed for use in the NHS in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Registered stakeholders for this guideline are invited to comment on the provisional recommendations via this website.�� Individuals and organisations not registered as stakeholders are not able to comment, we recommend that you register as a stakeholder or you contact the registered stakeholder organisation that most closely represents your interests and pass your comments to them. Note that the provisional recommendations presented here do not constitute the Institute's formal guidance on this topic. The recommendations are provisional and may change after consultation. Consultation dates: 11 November 2009 - 6 January 2010 Consultation documents Full guidelineFull guideline appendicesAlgorithmNICE guidelineConsultation comments proforma��

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

This thesis consists of four essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The main topic is investors' heterogeneity: I investigates the equilibrium implications for the financial markets when investors have different attitudes toward risk. The first chapter studies why expected risk and remuneration on the aggregate market are negatively related, even if intuition and standard theory suggest a positive relation. I show that the negative trade-off can obtain in equilibrium if investors' beliefs about economic fundamentals are procyclically biased and the market Sharpe ratio is countercyclical. I verify that such conditions hold in the real markets and I find empirical support for the risk-return dynamics predicted by the model. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay studies how het¬erogeneity in risk preferences interacts with other sources of heterogeneity and how this affects asset prices in equilibrium. Using perceived macroeconomic un¬certainty as source of heterogeneity, the model helps to explain some patterns of financial returns, even if heterogeneity is small as suggested by survey data. The second essay determines conditions such that equilibrium prices have analytical solutions when investors have heterogeneous risk attitudes and macroeconomic fundamentals feature latent uncertainty. This approach provides additional in-sights to the previous literature where models require numerical solutions. The third chapter studies why equity claims (i.e. assets paying a single future dividend) feature premia and risk decreasing with the horizon, even if standard models imply the opposite shape. I show that labor relations helps to explain the puzzle. When workers have bargaining power to exploit partial income insurance within the firm, wages are smoother and dividends are riskier than in a standard economy. Distributional risk among workers and shareholders provides a rationale to the equity short-term risk, which leads to downward sloping term structures of premia and risk for equity claim. Résumé Cette thèse se compose de quatre essais dans l'évaluation des actifs d'équilibre. Le sujet principal est l'hétérogénéité des investisseurs: J'étudie les implications d'équilibre pour les marchés financiers où les investisseurs ont des attitudes différentes face au risque. Le première chapitre étudie pourquoi attendus risque et la rémunération sur le marché global sont liées négativement, même si l'intuition et la théorie standard suggèrent une relation positive. Je montre que le compromis négatif peut obtenir en équilibre si les croyances des investisseurs sur les fondamentaux économiques sont procyclique biaisées et le ratio de Sharpe du marché est anticyclique. Je vérifier que ces conditions sont réalisées dans les marchés réels et je trouve un appui empirique à la dynamique risque-rendement prédites par le modèle. Le deuxième chapitre se compose de deux essais. Le première essai étudie com¬ment hétérogénéité dans les préférences de risque inter agit avec d'autres sources d'hétérogénéité et comment cela affecte les prix des actifs en équilibre. Utili¬sation de l'incertitude macroéconomique perù comme source d'hétérogénéité, le modèle permet d'expliquer certaines tendances de rendements financiers, même si l'hétérogénéité est faible comme suggéré par les données d'enquête. Le deuxième essai détermine des conditions telles que les prix d'équilibre disposer de solutions analytiques lorsque les investisseurs ont des attitudes des risques hétérogènes et les fondamentaux macroéconomiques disposent d'incertitude latente. Cette approche fournit un éclairage supplémentaire à la littérature antérieure où les modèles nécessitent des solutions numériques. Le troisième chapitre étudie pourquoi les equity-claims (actifs que paient un seul dividende futur) ont les primes et le risque décroissante avec l'horizon, mme si les modèles standards impliquent la forme opposée. Je montre que les relations de travail contribue à expliquer l'énigme. Lorsque les travailleurs ont le pouvoir de négociation d'exploiter assurance revenu partiel dans l'entreprise, les salaires sont plus lisses et les dividendes sont plus risqués que dans une économie standard. Risque de répartition entre les travailleurs et les actionnaires fournit une justification à le risque à court terme, ce qui conduit à des term-structures en pente descendante des primes et des risques pour les equity-claims.

The new EASL guidelines for the management of chronic hepatitis B infection adapted for Swiss physicians.

Since the arrival of several new antivirals and due to the growing molecular and clinical knowledge of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, therapy of hepatitis B has become complex. Clinical guidelines aim at streamlining medical attitudes: in this respect, the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) recently issued clinical practice guidelines for the management of chronic hepatitis B. Guidelines made by international experts need however to be adapted to local health care systems. Here, we summarise the EASL guidelines with some minor modifications in order to be compatible with the particular Swiss situation, while discussing in more detail some aspects. Chronic hepatitis B is a complex disease with several phases where host and viral factors interact: the features of this continuous interplay need to be evaluated when choosing the most appropriate treatment. The EASL guidelines recommend, as first-line agents, using the most potent antivirals available with the optimal resistance profile, in order to abate HBV DNA as rapidly and as sustainably as possible. Once therapy has been started, the infection evolves and resistant viral strains may emerge. Rescue therapy needs to be started early with more potent agents lacking cross-resistance.

Aptitude au volant: quelle conduite pour les médecins en 2008? [Fitness to drive: which assessment by doctors in 2008?]

La fréquence et la complexité des problèmes médicaux qui concernent la conduite automobile augmentent progressivement. Dans la plupart des cantons suisses, tout médecin peut être amené à se prononcer sur l'aptitude à conduire en tant que médecin-conseil au sujet d'un de ses patients. Ces dernières années, plusieurs nouvelles recommandations de différentes sociétés médicales ont été publiées en Suisse. Il nous a paru utile de faire une synthèse de ce qui paraît essentiel de savoir avant de rédiger un certificat d'aptitude à la conduite. Medical problems related to car driving are more and more complex and frequent. In the most areas of Switzerland each doctor can be asked to assess the fitness to drive of his patients. Several guidelines from medical societies have been published recently in Switzerland. Therefore it appears to be useful to synthesize the essential knowledge to have before signing fitness-to-drive certificates

Dexamethasone therapy and cortisol excretion in severe pediatric head injury.

Glucocorticoids are used in an attempt to reduce brain edema secondary to head injury. Nevertheless, their usefulness remains uncertain and contradictory. In a randomized study of 24 children with severe head injury, urinary free cortisol was measured by radioimmunoassay. Twelve patients (group 1) received dexamethasone and 12 (group 2) did not. All patients were treated with a standardized regimen. In group 1 there was complete suppression of endogenous cortisol production. In group 2 free cortisol was up to 20-fold higher than under basal conditions and reached maximum values on days 1-3. Since the excretion of cortisol in urine reflects the production rate closely and is not influenced by liver function and barbiturates, the results in group 2 show that the endogenous production of steroids is an adequate reaction to severe head injury. Exogenous glucocorticoids are thus unlikely to have any more beneficial effects than endogenous cortisol.

Why did Swiss citizens refuse to ban tobacco advertising?

A ban on tobacco advertising is one of the major tools to promote tobacco control. Swiss citizens recently refused to modify the Swiss Constitution to ban tobacco advertising. This case study shows how a strong alliance among the tobacco industry, the state, the media, and sports and cultural activities planners made it difficult for people to make an informed decision. The promoters of the ban were unable to provide counter-arguments to the mostly fallacious claims made by the opponents regarding the likely health and economic impact of this ban. A comparison to successful campaigns in Canada and New Zealand provides insight regarding factors missing in the Swiss campaign which might have been useful in obtaining support from Swiss citizens.

Indexes and boundaries for "quantitative significance" in statistical decisions.

Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.