Economic transition and commercial property cycles in China

Drawn from a recently completed study, this paper aims at a better understanding of commercial property cycles in the transitional economy of China. It examines the behaviour of the property submarket system in China and considers structural changes in the socio-economic system as a primary factor in addressing the research problem. The study suggests that the underlying social and economic structure has greatly determined market behaviour. It finds that radical changes can alter the formal structure (the designed structure) of the market system, including the property market structure, but cannot alter the informal structure (i.e. the emergent structure) at the similar rate. As the study shows, cycles in the commercial property market in the economic transition is largely a key resulting feature of the continuous structural change both at formal and informal levels in a way that is often imbalanced and not always consistently changing together. The same situation also applies to the transformation of inner-city built form, which is featured by a delayed change of physical building stock against the space demand trend that is underpinned by the socio-economic transition. Put simply, there is a supply lag, mainly in the form of changing land use and building stock replacement, against economic change (the business cycle). This affects the level of effective demand for office space and hence becomes a major force in shaping current office cycles.

Importance of the contribution of Australians to the penetration of China by the China Inland Mission in the period 1888-1953, with particular reference to the work of Australian women missionaries

Australians, in the main, are unaware of the role which Australia played in the evangelization of China in the late nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth century. Most would never have heard of the China Inland Mission (CIM), the largest of the Protestant bodies which penetrated the Middle Kingdom, and few would know of the contribution that its Australian contingent, which consistently comprised about a tenth of the CIM's numbers, made towards the Christianization of that vast country. This thesis aims to raise the level of awareness in this area. Academic researchers have not totally neglected to examine the proselytization of China, and historians of the stature of Latourette have not let it escape their attention. However, most of the studies which have not merely fleetingly focused on the subject while viewing a larger canvas, have been North American, singling out the efforts of United States and Canadian bodies in introducing Christianity to the Chinese. Here, authors like Amerding, Bacon, Creighton, Gates, Hawkes, Ho, Ko, Mensendiek, Michell and Quale have left their mark. In the case of the present thesis, the outlook from which events played out in China are viewed is firmly based in Australia rather than North America. Earlier Australian research has been scarce, and is dominated by Loane and Dixon. Loane, evidently primarily working from Australasian Council minutes, mainly concentrates on the efforts of the CIM's Home Council, examining its endeavours decade by decade against a backdrop of contemporaneous events in China, and briefly referring to aspects of the lives of a cross-section of Australasian missionaries, without providing much idea about what they actually did in the field or what they achieved there. Because of its preoccupation with the Home Council, which never admitted women into its ranks, Loane's treatise is systemically biased towards men, though the more prominent of the women, like Mary Reed and Susie Garland, are given due recognition. The current thesis looks in detail at what Australians did in the field, the level of success they achieved, and at the particular contribution of Australian women towards the evangelization of China. Dixon took upon herself the formidable task of examining the endeavours of all missions in China which contained Australian missionaries. Because of the magnitude of her task, she could not focus to any great extent on particular missions, nor pursue in any detail the work of individual Australian missionaries. Like Loane, she was unable to explore what they actually did in the field or what they achieved there. Neither could she delve to any depth into the work of Australian women missionaries, though on the basis of the information she had accumulated, she drew the conclusion that Australian women had largely only brought about some unintended feminist consequences amongst Chinese women. This sweeping generalization failed to take into account the other very real social changes for Chinese women the Australian female missionaries quite purposely helped to bring about, and this thesis makes good that omission. This thesis studies aspects of the Australian missionary endeavour which both Loane and Dixon have neglected, thereby breaking new ground, and sets out to correct erroneous impressions which Dixon's dissertation has left on the historical record. One of these impressions concerned the longevity of the effect of the Australian effort in China. She had the View, writing in 1978, that the Chinese Church was moribund (a view shared by Varg and Lacy) , and that therefore the effects attributable to the endeavours of any nationality had proved fruitless, whereas the author is able to show, using modern-day sources, that the church has burgeoned in recent years thanks to earlier missionary endeavours and later neo-evangelistic efforts like Gospel radio, and now has a complement of perhaps 50 million adherents, making it second only to the United States in the size of its Protestant evangelical population. Another impression she left was that the Australian input into the evangelization of China can be largely dismissed because no totally Australian organization emerged, leaving the direction of Australia's effort in other hands. Contrary to that impression, the author shows that the Australian impact in China was significant and that Australians enjoyed more power than Dixon ever imagined. The author also shows that Australians were accepted as the equal of other nationalities in the CIM once they had acquired the necessary field expertise, a factor which doubtless also applied in respect of other missions with Australian components in China. Marchant has suggested that it is a fiction perpetuated by mission periodicals that Christianity spread and progressed in a determined manner in China. This thesis establishes that within the CIM's bailiwick, though there was some patchiness, Christianity progressed steadily and inexorably. One mission alone, the CIM, is concentrated upon, firstly in order to render the data manageable, secondly because it was the largest mission in China and had a sizeable Australian (including female) contingent, and thirdly because it exemplified many of the problems which would have been faced by missions in that country and their Australian components. The methodology employed is multifaceted. The written testimony of the missionaries themselves, contained in CIM periodicals, Field Bulletins, Monthly Notes, Annual Reports, autobiographies, personal files, diaries and letters is used to illustrate various aspects of the CIM's work in which Australians were engaged. This approach is augmented by other sources such as China and Australasian Home Council Minutes, missionary conference reports, Candidates' Books, biographies, and other selected material from archival holdings in Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, America and Canada. Statistics, especially ratio analyses and growth rate comparisons are used to demonstrate the relative success of different missions, missionaries and genders. Also employed are reminiscences of missionaries and descendants obtained by personal interview, and these are aggregated to provide some general conclusions. Data from these various sources have been synthesized to serve the central objective of demonstrating the importance of the contribution of Australians to the penetration of China by the CIM in the period 1888-1953 with particular reference to the work of Australian women missionaries.

The value of design : a discussion paper

Although there is often a difference between the architectural understanding of forms and their social and value-related perception (Malhis, 2008), elements of architectural value are often divided into economic or cultural concerns. Architecture’s true value, however, may be found at the resolution of this dichotomy although it can be argued it is not straightforward to isolate
and measure the true value of architecture. This discussion paper suggests that whilst many of the concerns highlighted appear in conflict, they are in fact reciprocal in nature with both causes being advanced through the efficiencies of architectural design. One viewpoint is that economic value perhaps should not be a topic of infrequent discussion, but rather it should be raised from time to time within the context of the broader market within which architecture is positioned. Even this viewpoint is subject to conjecture
for some. This discussion paper places the focus on the importance and relevance of value from an architectural perspective, which often is a concept rarely discussed in design circles. It is meant to encourage discourse and discussion about the different forms of value and how it is perceived in an architectural sense. As there are numerous classifications and perceptions of value in our society which are in a constant state of change, it is imperative that we regularly re-evaluate the relevance of these ever-changing values to design.

Will residential aged care facilities meet long-term demand?

Purpose – This paper aims to provide an invaluable insight into long-term forecasting of demand for aged care facilities. This will ensure the provision of adequate supply by government bodies, stakeholders and developers in order to meet the anticipated level of demand, without creating an over-supply or an under-supply scenario.

Design/methodology/approach – Using an innovative approach, different data sources were collectively used to forecast separate individual supply and demand levels, which were then examined together in order to measure the difference between the two variables between 2009-2020. A case study approach was used for Victoria, Australia.

Findings – The paper finds that, although there is excess supply between 2009-2010 and 2019-2020, the period between 2010 and 2019 will experience an under-supply period which cannot be easily rectified over the short term.

Research limitations/implications – The case study was limited to residential care facilities in Victoria, Australia, although some countries have substantially different age profiles and accommodation supply for older residents. Forecasts are based on information sources from various data suppliers and collectively analysed.

Practical implications – The results are also of direct interest to place managers and planning authorities who are charged with providing medium- and long-term visions and plans for specific locations. This type of research is essential when planning for the eventual aging of the population, where the methodology can be replicated in different areas. Most importantly, this research approach provides a solid basis for decisions regarding the supply of residential aged care facilities as opposed to a simple estimate.

Originality/value – The study adopted a unique approach to analysing the individual supply and demand components for aged care facilities over the long term. This approach is able to accurately determine when there will be an under-supply or over-supply situation and thus provide the opportunity to address the difference before it occurs. This will allow informed decisions about planning aged care facilities in the future to be made as required.

Considerations for appraisers in regard to dummy auction bids

Focuses on the auction process and the practice of dummy bids in Melbourne, Victoria. Techniques employed by a dummy bidder during the auction process for a residential real estate; Effect of dummy bidding on market value; Suggested amendments to the auction process.

Understanding property cycles in a residential market

Purpose – This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

Findings – It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low-income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

Practical implications – In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

Originality/value – This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

Green roof retrofit potential in the central business district

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential for green roof retrofit to commercial buildings in a city centre to property managers and other property professionals.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper addresses the research question: what is the potential of existing buildings in the CBD to accommodate a retrofitted green roof? Furthermore, it questions how many buildings are suitable for green roofs? The researchers compile a unique building database incorporating information about 536 commercial buidings and evaluate the potential suitability of each building to undergo a green roof retrofit. Assisted by other commercially available databases and software, the researchers are able to assess each roof based on criteria derived from an extensive literature review.

Findings – A relatively small proportion of roofs are found to be suitable, partly a result of local climate conditions and rainfall patterns, and the physical property stock. On a purely physical assessment, only a very small proportion of CBD stock is found to be suited. These buildings are most likely to be in low secondary locations, ungraded or B grade buildings, privately owned, concrete framed and not overshadowed by adjoining properties.

Practical implications – Property managers and other property professionals can now determine the potential of their portfolio stock for green roof retrofit based on the review of building attributes required for success adaptation in this paper. It possible that greater potential for green roof retrofit exists in the suburbs or regional towns where lower rise buildings may reduce the amount of overshadowing found in city centres. Follow-up research could focus on a comparison of regional and suburban developments.

Originality/value – This is the first study of its kind and has assessed such a large number of buildings for their suitability for green roof retrofit; the findings provide a reliable guide for policymakers regarding the potential number of city centre buildings which would be possible to retrofit. Such findings should influence policymaking and incentives to target effective sustainability policies with regards to existing buildings.

International comparison of sustainable rating tools

This paper undertakes an international comparison of global sustainability tools and examines their characteristics and differences. Most importantly, it focuses on which tools from different countries can be directly compared with each other (i.e., is a five-star building with one rating system directly comparable with a four-star rating of another rating system?). The results are designed to provide some clarification of the assessment tools for sustainable buildings, which in turn will assist investors, developers, tenants, and government bodies in making
informed decisions about green buildings. In addition, it is envisaged that removing some of the uncertainty associated with sustainable buildings will increase transparency for stakeholders and facilitate their acceptance.

Using building adaptation to deliver sustainability in Australia

Purpose – This paper seeks to establish the rationale for existing office building adaptation within Melbourne, Australia, as the city strives to become carbon neutral by 2020. The problems faced by policy makers to determine which buildings have the optimum adaptation potential are to be identified and discussed.

Design/methodology/approach – This research adopts the approach of creating a database of all the buildings in the Melbourne CBD including details of physical, social, economic and technological attributes. This approach will determine whether relationships exist between attributes and the frequency of building adaptation or whether triggers to adaptation can be determined.

Findings – This research provided evidence that a much faster rate of office building adaptation is necessary to meet the targets already set for carbon neutrality. The findings demonstrate that a retrospective comprehensive examination of previous adaptation in the CBD is a unique and original approach to determining the building characteristics associated with adaptation and whether triggers can be identified based on previous practices. The implication is that a decision-making tool should be developed to allow policy makers to target sectors of the office building stock to deliver carbon neutrality within the 2020 timeframe.

Practical implications – Drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate global warming and climate change and all stakeholders should be looking at ways of reducing emissions from existing stock.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the existing body of knowledge by raising awareness of the way in which the adaptation of large amounts of existing stock can be fast tracked to mitigate the impact of climate change and warming associated with the built environment, and in addition it establishes a framework for a decision-making tool for policy makers.