The thinking child resource book : brain-based learning for the early years foundation stage.

Ofrece a los profesores, estudiantes y padres, prácticas y sugerencias para la aplicación del aprendizaje, basado en cómo está configurado el cerebro del niño en sus primeros años de vida. Se enumeran ideas sobre cómo usar técnicas de aprendizaje que incluyen las formas de promover la autoestima y la inteligencia emocional, las ideas para la enseñanza a través del juego, música y movimiento, actividades para la hora de la asamblea, asesoramiento sobre el manejo de la conducta positiva y fomento de las relaciones con padres y cuidadores. Los estudios de casos, tomados de una variedad de entornos, dan una idea de cómo las técnicas basadas en el cerebro pueden ser utilizados para enriquecer la experiencia de aprendizaje de los niños pequeños.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Habilidades cognitivas e competências de leitura em crianças do 1º ano

A criança quando inicia a educação pré-escolar, já sabe muitas coisas sobre o mundo que a rodeia através do seu meio familiar e sociocultural. O conjunto de estimulações fornecidas, desde muito cedo, faz com que a criança desenvolva o potencial cognitivo e afetivo. O desenvolvimento e as aprendizagens adquiridas dependem das estimulações realizadas pelo meio envolvente e da qualidade das interações logo desde o nascimento. Este processo antes da entrada na escola é movido pelo desejo de saber da criança e a sua exploração do meio, passando com o início da escolaridade a ser movido por necessidades externas à criança. O aluno é confrontado com um currículo formal com objetivos prévios de aprendizagem que, por vezes, podem estar além dos seus desejos de descoberta ou da sua história de vida. A aprendizagem da leitura é uma construção que tem início antes da entrada no 1º ciclo através do desenvolvimento da linguagem oral e do contacto com a cultura escrita, que permite novas modalidades de comunicação, nova capacidade de simbolizar e de dominar o meio envolvente. O sucesso escolar vai depender quer das aprendizagens prévias quer da capacidade de adaptação e integração no meio escolar. Foi nosso propósito verificar se existem habilidades cognitivas antecedentes que predizem o sucesso da leitura. O interesse por este estudo prende-se com a necessidade que professores e restantes profissionais da educação têm em compreender e analisar com cuidado a situação de entrada na aprendizagem da leitura de cada uma das crianças. Escolhemos, baseado na literatura científica, duas habilidades que testamos previamente em alunos do 1.º ano: a consciência fonológica e o vocabulário. Entre Março e Junho foi aplicado um teste de leitura/descodificação. O estudo é de tipo correlacional que se situa entre o estudo descritivo e uma abordagem experimental. Constatamos que na análise dos resultados obtidos nesta pesquisa, não observamos correlação entre os níveis da consciência fonológica e a leitura e o vocabulário e a leitura, não permitindo afirmar que existe uma relação preditora de uma dessas habilidades com a competência leitora.

A comparison of the QuickSIN and TEN tests: two recent tests designed to predict patient benefit from high frequency amplification

This paper presents a comparison of two tests designed to predict which hearing impaired patients may benefit from high frequency amplification.

Development of a simple index to predict benefit and satisfaction from amplification

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of non-audiological patient-based variables; amount of bother, importance of improved hearing, and expectations, as reliable predictors of benefit and satisfaction from amplification. Study findings were then used to develop two initial prognostic indices.

Evaluating the Small Population Paradigm for Rare Large-Bodied Woodpeckers, with Implications for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

Six large-bodied, ≥ 120 g, woodpecker species are listed as near-threatened to critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The small population paradigm assumes that these populations are likely to become extinct without an increase in numbers, but the combined influences of initial population size and demographic rates, i.e., annual adult survival and fecundity, may drive population persistence for these species. We applied a stochastic, stage-based single-population model to available demographic rates for Dryocopus and Campephilus woodpeckers. In particular, we determined the change in predicted extinction rate, i.e., proportion of simulated populations that went extinct within 100 yr, to concomitant changes in six input parameters. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the combined importance of initial population size and demographic rates for the persistence of large-bodied woodpeckers. Under a worse-case scenario, the median time to extinction was 7 yr (range: 1–32). Across the combinations of other input values, increasing initial population size by one female induced, on average, 0.4%–3.2% (range: 0%–28%) reduction in extinction rate. Increasing initial population size from 5–30 resulted in extinction rates < 0.05 under limited conditions: (1) all input values were intermediate, or (2) Allee effect present and annual adult survival ≥ 0.8. Based on our model, these species can persist as rare, as few as five females, and thus difficult-to-detect, populations provided they maintain ≥ 1.1 recruited females annually per adult female and an annual adult survival rate ≥ 0.8. Athough a demographic-based population viability analysis (PVA) is useful to predict how extinction rate changes across scenarios for life-history attributes, the next step for modeling these populations should incorporate more easily acquired data on changes in patch occupancy to make predictions about patch colonization and extinction rates.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area.

Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Regular visual observations of persistent contrails over Reading, UK, have been used to evaluate radiosonde measurements of temperature and humidity defining cold ice-supersaturated atmospheric regions which are assumed to be a necessary condition for persistent condensation trails (contrails) to form. Results show a good correlation between observations and predictions using data from Larkhill, 63 km from Reading. A statistical analysis of this result and the forecasts using data from four additional UK radiosonde stations are presented. The horizontal extent of supersaturated layers could be inferred from this to be several hundred kilometres. The necessity of bias corrections to radiosonde humidity measurements is discussed and an analysis of measured ice-supersaturated atmospheric layers in the troposphere is presented. It is found that ice supersaturation is more likely to occur in winter than in summer, with frequencies of 17.3% and 9.4%, respectively, which is mostly due to the layers being thicker in winter than in summer. The most probable height for them to occur is about 10 km.