Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Electromagnetic analysis of novel class of multiple core/multiple clad step index single mode optical fiber by analytical means

General propagation properties and universal curves are given for double clad single mode fibers with inner cladding index higher or lower than the outer cladding index, using the parameter: inner cladding/core radii ratio. Mode cut-off conditions are also examined for the cases. It is shown that dispersion properties largely differ from the single clad single mode fiber case, leading to large new possibilities for extension of single mode operation for large wavelength tange. Paper demonstrates that how substantially we can extend the single mode operation range by using the raised inner cladding fiber. Throughout we have applied our own computations technique to find out the eigenvalue for a given modes. Detail derivations with all trivial mathematics for eigenmode equation are derived for each case. Paper also demonstrates that there is not much use of using depressed inner cladding fiber. We have also concluded that using the large inner cladding/inner core radius we can significantly increase the single mode operation range for the large wavelength region. (C) 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Optical-Phonon-Limited High-Field Transport in Layered Materials

An optical-phonon-limited velocity model has been employed to investigate high-field transport in a selection of layered 2-D materials for both, low-power logic switches with scaled supply voltages, and high-power, high-frequency transistors. Drain currents, effective electron velocities, and intrinsic cutoff frequencies as a function of carrier density have been predicted, thus providing a benchmark for the optical-phonon-limited high-field performance limits of these materials. The optical-phonon-limited carrier velocities for a selection of multi-layers of transition metal dichalcogenides and black phosphorus are found to be modest compared to their n-channel silicon counterparts, questioning the utility of biasing these devices in the source-injection dominated regime. h-BN, at the other end of the spectrum, is shown to be a very promising material for high-frequency, high-power devices, subject to the experimental realization of high carrier densities, primarily due to its large optical-phonon energy. Experimentally extracted saturation velocities from few-layer MoS2 devices show reasonable qualitative and quantitative agreement with the predicted values. The temperature dependence of the measured v(sat) is discussed and compared with the theoretically predicted dependence over a range of temperatures.

Mechanism to synthesize a `moving optical mark' at solid-ambient interface for the estimation of thermal diffusivity of solid

supporting unsteady heat flow with its ambient-humidity; invokes phase transformation of water-vapour molecule and synthesize a `moving optical-mark' at sample-ambient-interface. Under tailored condition, optical-mark exhibits a characteristic macro-scale translatory motion governed by thermal diffusivity of solid. For various step-temperature inputs via cooling, position-dependent velocities of moving optical-mark are measured at a fixed distance. A new approach is proposed. `Product of velocity of optical-mark and distance' versus `non-dimensional velocity' is plotted. The slope reveals thermal diffusivity of solid at ambient-temperature; preliminary results obtained for Quartz-glass is closely matching with literature. (C) 2016 Author(s). All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Region-of-interest diffuse optical tomography system

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) using near-infrared light is a promising tool for non-invasive imaging of deep tissue. This technique is capable of quantitative reconstruction of absorption (mu(a)) and scattering coefficient (mu(s)) inhomogeneities in the tissue. The rationale for reconstructing the optical property map is that the absorption coefficient variation provides diagnostic information about metabolic and disease states of the tissue. The aim of DOT is to reconstruct the internal tissue cross section with good spatial resolution and contrast from noisy measurements non-invasively. We develop a region-of-interest scanning system based on DOT principles. Modulated light is injected into the phantom/tissue through one of the four light emitting diode sources. The light traversing through the tissue gets partially absorbed and scattered multiple times. The intensity and phase of the exiting light are measured using a set of photodetectors. The light transport through a tissue is diffusive in nature and is modeled using radiative transfer equation. However, a simplified model based on diffusion equation (DE) can be used if the system satisfies following conditions: (a) the optical parameter of the inhomogeneity is close to the optical property of the background, and (b) mu(s) of the medium is much greater than mu(a) (mu(s) >> mu(a)). The light transport through a highly scattering tissue satisfies both of these conditions. A discrete version of DE based on finite element method is used for solving the inverse problem. The depth of probing light inside the tissue depends on the wavelength of light, absorption, and scattering coefficients of the medium and the separation between the source and detector locations. Extensive simulation studies have been carried out and the results are validated using two sets of experimental measurements. The utility of the system can be further improved by using multiple wavelength light sources. In such a scheme, the spectroscopic variation of absorption coefficient in the tissue can be used to arrive at the oxygenation changes in the tissue. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Enhanced nonlinear optical properties of graphene oxide-silver nanocomposites measured by Z-scan technique

Nonlinear optical properties (NLO) of a graphene oxide-silver (GO-Ag) nanocomposite have been investigated by the Z-scan setup at Q-switched Nd:YAG laser second harmonic radiation i.e., at 532 nm excitation in a nanosecond regime. A noteworthy enhancement in the NLO properties in the GO-Ag nanocomposite has been reported in comparison with those of the synthesized GO nanosheet. The extracted value of third order nonlinear susceptibility (chi(3)), at a peak intensity of I-0 = 0.2 GW cm(-2), for GO-Ag has been found to be 2.8 times larger than that of GO. The enhancement in NLO properties in the GO-Ag nanocomposite may be attributed to the complex energy band structures formed during the synthesis which promote resonant transition to the conduction band via surface plasmon resonance (SPR) at low laser intensities and excited state transition (ESA) to the conduction band of GO at higher intensities. Along with this photogenerated charge carriers in the conduction band of silver or the increase in defect states during the formation of the GO-Ag nanocomposite may contribute to ESA. Open aperture Z-scan measurement indicates reverse saturable absorption (RSA) behavior of the synthesized nanocomposite which is a clear indication of the optical limiting (OL) ability of the nanocomposite.

Magnetic structures and magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied by neutron powder diffraction

The magnetic structures and the magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied using neutron powder diffraction are reported. Magnetic phase transitions are identified at T-N(Fe/Mn) approximate to 295K where a paramagnetic-to-antiferromagnetic transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice, T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K where a spin-reorientation transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice and T-N(R) approximate to 2K where Tb-ordering starts to manifest. At 295 K, the magnetic structure of the Fe/Mn sublattice in TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 belongs to the irreducible representation Gamma(4) (G(x)A(y)F(z) or Pb'n'm). A mixed-domain structure of (Gamma(1) + Gamma(4)) is found at 250K which remains stable down to the spin re-orientation transition at T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K. Below 26K and above 250 K, the majority phase (>80%) is that of Gamma(4). Below 10K the high-temperature phase Gamma(4) remains stable till 2K. At 2 K, Tb develops a magnetic moment value of 0.6(2) mu(B)/f.u. and orders long-range in F-z compatible with the Gamma(4) representation. Our study confirms the magnetic phase transitions reported already in a single crystal of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 and, in addition, reveals the presence of mixed magnetic domains. The ratio of these magnetic domains as a function of temperature is estimated from Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. Indications of short-range magnetic correlations are present in the low-Q region of the neutron diffraction patterns at T < T-SR(Fe/Mn). These results should motivate further experimental work devoted to measure electric polarization and magnetocapacitance of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Effect of RF power on the structural, optical and gas sensing properties of RF-sputtered Al doped ZnO thin films

The effect of Radio Frequency (RF) power on the properties of magnetron sputtered Al doped ZnO thin films and the related sensor properties are investigated. A series of 2 wt% Al doped ZnO; Zn0.98Al0.02O (AZO) thin films prepared with magnetron sputtering at different RF powers, are examined. The structural results reveal a good adhesive nature of thin films with quartz substrates as well as increasing thickness of the films with increasing RF power. Besides, the increasing RF power is found to improve the crystallinity and grain growth as confirmed by X-ray diffraction. On the other hand, the optical transmittance is significantly influenced by the RF power, where the transparency values achieved are higher than 82% for all the AZO thin films and the estimated optical band gap energy is found to decrease with RF power due to an increase in the crystallite size as well as the film thickness. In addition, the defect induced luminescence at low temperature (77 K) and room temperature (300 K) was studied through photoluminescence spectroscopy, it is found that the defect density of electronic states of the Al3+ ion increases with an increase of RF power due to the increase in the thickness of the film and the crystallite size. The gas sensing behavior of AZO films was studied for NO2 at 350 degrees C. The AZO film shows a good response towards NO2 gas and also a good relationship between the response and the NO2 concentration, which is modeled using an empirical formula. The sensing mechanism of NO2 is discussed.

Magnetic structures and magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied by neutron powder diffraction

The magnetic structures and the magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied using neutron powder diffraction are reported. Magnetic phase transitions are identified at T-N(Fe/Mn) approximate to 295K where a paramagnetic-to-antiferromagnetic transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice, T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K where a spin-reorientation transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice and T-N(R) approximate to 2K where Tb-ordering starts to manifest. At 295 K, the magnetic structure of the Fe/Mn sublattice in TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 belongs to the irreducible representation Gamma(4) (G(x)A(y)F(z) or Pb'n'm). A mixed-domain structure of (Gamma(1) + Gamma(4)) is found at 250K which remains stable down to the spin re-orientation transition at T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K. Below 26K and above 250 K, the majority phase (>80%) is that of Gamma(4). Below 10K the high-temperature phase Gamma(4) remains stable till 2K. At 2 K, Tb develops a magnetic moment value of 0.6(2) mu(B)/f.u. and orders long-range in F-z compatible with the Gamma(4) representation. Our study confirms the magnetic phase transitions reported already in a single crystal of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 and, in addition, reveals the presence of mixed magnetic domains. The ratio of these magnetic domains as a function of temperature is estimated from Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. Indications of short-range magnetic correlations are present in the low-Q region of the neutron diffraction patterns at T < T-SR(Fe/Mn). These results should motivate further experimental work devoted to measure electric polarization and magnetocapacitance of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Transitions and blowoff of unconfined non-premixed swirling flame

The present experimental work reports the first observations of primary and secondary transitions in the time-averaged flame topology in a non-premixed swirling flame as the geometric swirl number S-G (a non dimensional number used to quantify the intensity of imparted swirl) is varied from a magnitude of zero till flame blowout. First observations of two transition types viz. primary and secondary transitions are reported. The primary transition represents a transformation from yellow straight jet flame (at S-G = 0) to lifted flame with blue base and finally to swirling seated (burner attached) yellow flame. Time-averaged streamline plot obtained from 2D PIV in mid-longitudinal plane shows a recirculation zone (RZ) at the immediate vicinity of burner exit. The lifted flame is stabilized along the vortex core of this RZ. Further, when S-G similar to 1.4-3, the first occurrence of vortex breakdown (VB) induced internal recirculation zone (IRZ) is witnessed. The flame now stabilizes at the upstream stagnation point of the VB-IRZ, which is attached to the burner lip. The secondary transition represents a transformation from a swirling seated flame to swirling flame with a conical tailpiece and finally to a highly-swirled near blowout oxidizer-rich flame. This transition is understood to be the result of transition in vortex breakdown modes of the swirling flow field from dual-ring VB bubble to central toroidal recirculation zone (CTRZ). The physics of transition is described on the basis of modified Rossby number (Ro(m)). Finally, when the swirl intensity is very high i.e. SG similar to 10, the flame blows out due to excessive straining and due to entrainment of large amount of oxidizer due to partial premixing. The present investigation involving changes in flame topology is immensely important because any change in global flame structure causes oscillatory heat release that can couple with dynamic pressure and velocity fluctuations leading to unsteady combustion. In this light, understanding mechanisms of flame stabilization is essential to tackle the problem of thermo-acoustic instability. (C) 2015 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of RF power on the structural, optical and gas sensing properties of RF-sputtered Al doped ZnO thin films

The effect of Radio Frequency (RF) power on the properties of magnetron sputtered Al doped ZnO thin films and the related sensor properties are investigated. A series of 2 wt% Al doped ZnO; Zn0.98Al0.02O (AZO) thin films prepared with magnetron sputtering at different RF powers, are examined. The structural results reveal a good adhesive nature of thin films with quartz substrates as well as increasing thickness of the films with increasing RF power. Besides, the increasing RF power is found to improve the crystallinity and grain growth as confirmed by X-ray diffraction. On the other hand, the optical transmittance is significantly influenced by the RF power, where the transparency values achieved are higher than 82% for all the AZO thin films and the estimated optical band gap energy is found to decrease with RF power due to an increase in the crystallite size as well as the film thickness. In addition, the defect induced luminescence at low temperature (77 K) and room temperature (300 K) was studied through photoluminescence spectroscopy, it is found that the defect density of electronic states of the Al3+ ion increases with an increase of RF power due to the increase in the thickness of the film and the crystallite size. The gas sensing behavior of AZO films was studied for NO2 at 350 degrees C. The AZO film shows a good response towards NO2 gas and also a good relationship between the response and the NO2 concentration, which is modeled using an empirical formula. The sensing mechanism of NO2 is discussed.

Optical and Morphological Properties of Sol Gel derived Titanium dioxide Films

Titanium oxide (Titania) thin films were synthesized on different substrates via the sol-gel dip-coating method using alkoxide solution. Some selected samples were also prepared with different percentage of Lead (Pb). The influence of Pb addition in precursor sol on the optical properties of titanium dioxide thin films was studied. The optical transmittance in the visible region has increased with increase in weight percentage of lead. The refractive index was slightly decreased with Pb addition. Crystallization of these coatings was achieved through thermal annealing at temperatures above 400 degrees C. The structural properties and surface morphology of the crystallized coatings were studied by Scanning Electron Microscopy. Increase in average grain size from 250 nm to 350 nm with increase in Pb concentration is observed. Films were appeared to more coarse with increase in Pb addition. An increase in Pb addition resulted increase in average roughness from 12 nm to 25 nm.

Structural, Optical, and Piezoelectric Response of Lead-Free Ba0.95Mg0.05Zr0.1Ti0.9O3 Nanocrystalline Powder

Nanocrystalline powders of Ba1-xMgxZr0.1Ti0.9O3 (x = 0.025-0.1) were synthesized via citrate assisted sol-gel method. Interestingly, the one with x = 0.05 in the system Ba1-xMgxZr0.1Ti0.9O3 exhibited fairly good piezoelectric response aside from the other physical properties. The phase and structural confirmation of synthesized powder was established by X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and Raman Spectroscopic techniques. Two distinct Raman bands i.e., 303 and 723 cm(-1) characteristic of tetragonal phase were observed. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was performed to evaluate the phase decomposition of the as-synthesized Ba0.95Mg0.05Zr0.1Ti0.9O3 sample as a function of temperature. The average crystallite size associated with Ba0.95Mg0.05Zr0.1Ti0.9O3 was calculated using Scherrer formula based on the XRD data and was found to be 25 nm. However, Scanning and Transmission Electron Microscopy studies revealed the average crystallite size to be in the range of 30-40 nm, respectively. Kubelka-Munk function was employed to determine the optical band gap of these nanocrystallites. A piezoelectric response of 26 pm/V was observed for Ba0.95Mg0.05Zr0.1Ti0.9O3 nanocrystal by Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM) technique. Photoluminescence (PL) study carried out on these nanocrystals exhibited a blue emission (470 nm) at room temperature.

An out-of-plane linear motion measurement system based on optical beam deflection

Measurement of out-of-plane linear motion with high precision and bandwidth is indispensable for development of precision motion stages and for dynamic characterization of mechanical structures. This paper presents an optical beam deflection (OBD) based system for measurement of out-of-plane linear motion for fully reflective samples. The system also achieves nearly zero cross-sensitivity to angular motion, and a large working distance. The sensitivities to linear and angular motion are analytically obtained and employed to optimize the system design. The optimal shot-noise limited resolution is shown to be less than one angstrom over a bandwidth in excess of 1 kHz. Subsequently, the system is experimentally realized and the sensitivities to out-of-plane motions are calibrated using a novel strategy. The linear sensitivity is found to be in agreement with theory. The angular sensitivity is shown to be over 7.5-times smaller than that of conventional OBD. Finally, the measurement system is employed to measure the transient response of a piezo-positioner, and, with the aid of an open-loop controller, reduce the settling time by about 90%. It is also employed to operate the positioner in closed-loop and demonstrate significant minimization of hysteresis and positioning error.

Morphological transitions and buckling characteristics in a nanoparticle-laden sessile droplet resting on a heated hydrophobic substrate

In this work, we have established the evaporation-liquid flow coupling mechanism by which sessile nanofluid droplets on a hydrophobic substrate evaporate and agglomerate to form unique morphological features under controlled external heating. It is well understood that evaporation coupled with internal liquid flow controls particle transport in a spatiotemporal sense. Flow characteristics inside the heated droplet are investigated and found to be driven by the buoyancy effects. Velocity magnitudes are observed to increase by an order at higher temperatures with similar looking flow profiles. The recirculating flow induced particle transport coupled with collision of particles and shear interaction between them leads to the formation of dome shaped viscoelastic shells of different dimensions depending on the surface temperature. These shells undergo sol-gel transition and subsequently undergo buckling instability leading to the formation of daughter cavities. With an increase in the surface temperature, droplets exhibit buckling from multiple sites over a larger sector in the top half of the droplet. Irrespective of the initial nanoparticle concentration and substrate temperature, growth of a daughter cavity (subsequent to buckling) inside the droplet is found to be controlled by the solvent evaporation rate from the droplet periphery and is shown to exhibit a universal trend.