Sequential Monte Carlo computation of the score and observed information matrix in state-space models with application to parameter estimation

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are popular computational tools for Bayesian inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. For this class of models, we propose SMC algorithms to compute the score vector and observed information matrix recursively in time. We propose two different SMC implementations, one with computational complexity $\mathcal{O}(N)$ and the other with complexity $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ where $N$ is the number of importance sampling draws. Although cheaper, the performance of the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method degrades quickly in time as it inherently relies on the SMC approximation of a sequence of probability distributions whose dimension is increasing linearly with time. In particular, even under strong \textit{mixing} assumptions, the variance of the estimates computed with the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method increases at least quadratically in time. The $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ is a non-standard SMC implementation that does not suffer from this rapid degrade. We then show how both methods can be used to perform batch and recursive parameter estimation.

Description of a new genus and species of hummingbird from Panama

Since January, 1911, Mr. E. A. Goldman, of the Biological Survey, U.S.Department of Agriculture, has been detailed to the Smithsonian Biological Survey of the Panama Canal Zone to collect mammals and birds in the Canal Zone and adjacent parts of Panama... (Document contains 4 pages)

Descriptions of new genera, species and subspecies of birds from Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador

The first of January, 1912, E. A. Goldman, of the Biological Survey, Department of Agriculture, was again detailed on the Smithsonian Biological Survey of the Canal Zone. He returned to Panama in January and remained there until the last of June passing most of this period in collecting birds and mammals on the slopes of Mount Pirri on the Pacific side of eastern Panama, near the Colombian border...(Document contains 27 pages)

Descriptions of new mammals from Panama and Mexico

Further study of the collection of mammals taken by the writer while detailed from the Biological Survey, U.S. Department of Agriculture, to the Smithsonian Biological Survey of the Panama Canal Zone has resulted in the discovery of eleven new species and subspecies in addition to those already published...(Document contains 22 pages.)

Descriptions of twelve new species and subspecies of mammals from Panama

In the early part of 1911 a collection of 368 mammals was made by me while engaged in the biological survey of the Canal Zone, and adjacent parts of Panama, undertaken by the Smithsonian Institution in cooperation with several government departments, including the War Department and Department of Agriculture. This collection, representing between 40 and 50 genera, includes 12 new species and subspecies which are here published in advance of a general report on the mammals of the region...(Document contains 13 pages)

Proceedings of the workshop on conclusions and lessons learnt from the livelihood study. Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 26-27 September 2002

This workshop is to follow-up the study on livelihoods of farmers and fishers in Kandal, Kampong Chhnang and Kratie provinces in Cambodia. It was the fourth workshop, part of an ongoing series of activities that will inform the Community Fisheries Development (CFD) Office of the Department of Fisheries (DOF), of the development of and changes in the fisheries law as it affects poor users of aquatic resources.(41 p.)

Channel Islands marine protected areas first 5 years of monitoring: 2003-2008 [Report produced by the California Department of Fish and Game in collaboration with the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans (PISCO), Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary, and Channel Islands National Park]

The Channel Islands—sometimes called the Galapagos of North America—are known for their great beauty, rich biodiversity, cultural heritage, and recreational opportunities. In 1980, in recognition of the islands’ importance, the United States Congress established a national park encompassing 5 of California’s Channel Islands (Santa Barbara, Anacapa, Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa, and San Miguel Islands) and waters within 1 nautical mile of the islands. In the same year, Congress declared a national marine sanctuary around each of these islands, including waters up to 6 nautical miles offshore. Approximately 60,000 people visit the Channel Islands each year for aquatic recreation such as fishing, sailing, kayaking, wildlife watching, surfing, and diving. Another 30,000 people visit the islands for hiking, camping, and sightseeing. Dozens of commercial fishing boats based in Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard, and other ports go to the Channel Islands to catch squid, spiny lobster, sea urchin, rockfish, crab, sheephead, flatfish, and sea cucumber, among other species. In the past few decades, advances in fishing technology and the rising number of fishermen, in conjunction with changing ocean conditions and diseases, have contributed to declines in some marine fishes and invertebrates at the Channel Islands. In 1998, citizens from Santa Barbara and Ventura proposed establishment of no-take marine reserves at the Channel Islands, beginning a 4-year process of public meetings, discussions, and scientific analyses. In 2003, the California Fish and Game Commission designated a network of marine protected areas (MPAs) in state waters around the northern Channel Islands. In 2006 and 2007, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extended the MPAs into the national marine sanctuary’s deeper, federal waters. To determine if the MPAs are protecting marine species and habitats, scientists are monitoring ecological changes. They are studying changes in habitats; abundance and size of species of interest; the ocean food web and ecosystem; and movement of fish and invertebrates from MPAs to surrounding waters. Additionally, scientists are monitoring human activities such as commercial and recreational fisheries, and compliance with MPA regulations. This booklet describes some results from the first 5 years of monitoring the Channel Islands MPAs. Although 5 years is not long enough to determine if the MPAs will accomplish all of their goals, this booklet offers a glimpse of the changes that are beginning to take place and illustrates the types of information that will eventually be used to assess the MPAs’ effectiveness. (PDF contains 24 pages.)

Analysis of Sample Frames and Subsampling Methods for Reef Fish Surveys

Introduction: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Biogeography Branch has conducted surveys of reef fish in the Caribbean since 1999. Surveys were initially undertaken to identify essential fish habitat, but later were used to characterize and monitor reef fish populations and benthic communities over time. The Branch’s goals are to develop knowledge and products on the distribution and ecology of living marine resources and provide resource managers, scientists and the public with an improved ecosystem basis for making decisions. The Biogeography Branch monitors reef fishes and benthic communities in three study areas: (1) St. John, USVI, (2) Buck Island, St. Croix, USVI, and (3) La Parguera, Puerto Rico. In addition, the Branch has characterized the reef fish and benthic communities in the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary and around the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Reef fish data are collected using a stratified random sampling design and stringent measurement protocols. Over time, the sampling design has changed in order to meet different management objectives (i.e. identification of essential fish habitat vs. monitoring), but the designs have always remained: • Probabilistic – to allow inferences to a larger targeted population, • Objective – to satisfy management objectives, and • Stratified – to reduce sampling costs and obtain population estimates for strata. There are two aspects of the sampling design which are now under consideration and are the focus of this report: first, the application of a sample frame, identified as a set of points or grid elements from which a sample is selected; and second, the application of subsampling in a two-stage sampling design. To evaluate these considerations, the pros and cons of implementing a sampling frame and subsampling are discussed. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of each design on accuracy (bias), feasibility and sampling cost (precision). Further, this report presents an analysis of data to determine the optimal number of subsamples to collect if subsampling were used. (PDF contains 19 pages)

Magnitude and Extent of Contaminated Sediment and Toxicity in Chesapeake Bay

INTRODUCTION: This report summarizes the results of NOAA's sediment toxicity, chemistry, and benthic community studies in the Chesapeake Bay estuary. As part of the National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program, NOAA has conducted studies to determine the spatial extent and severity of chemical contamination and associated adverse biological effects in coastal bays and estuaries of the United States since 1991. Sediment contamination in U.S. coastal areas is a major environmental issue because of its potential toxic effects on biological resources and often, indirectly, on human health. Thus, characterizing and delineating areas of sediment contamination and toxicity and demonstrating their effect(s) on benthic living resources are viewed as important goals of coastal resource management. Benthic community studies have a history of use in regional estuarine monitoring programs and have been shown to be an effective indicator for describing the extent and magnitude of pollution impacts in estuarine ecosystems, as well as for assessing the effectiveness of management actions. Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuarine system in the United States. Including tidal tributaries, the Bay has approximately 18,694 km of shoreline (more than the entire US West Coast). The watershed is over 165,000 km2 (64,000 miles2), and includes portions of six states (Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia) and the District of Columbia. The population of the watershed exceeds 15 million people. There are 150 rivers and streams in the Chesapeake drainage basin. Within the watershed, five major rivers - the Susquehanna, Potomac, Rappahannock, York and James - provide almost 90% of the freshwater to the Bay. The Bay receives an equal volume of water from the Atlantic Ocean. In the upper Bay and tributaries, sediments are fine-grained silts and clays. Sediments in the middle Bay are mostly made of silts and clays derived from shoreline erosion. In the lower Bay, by contrast, the sediments are sandy. These particles come from shore erosion and inputs from the Atlantic Ocean. The introduction of European-style agriculture and large scale clearing of the watershed produced massive shifts in sediment dynamics of the Bay watershed. As early as the mid 1700s, some navigable rivers were filled in by sediment and sedimentation caused several colonial seaports to become landlocked. Toxic contaminants enter the Bay via atmospheric deposition, dissolved and particulate runoff from the watershed or direct discharge. While contaminants enter the Bay from several sources, sediments accumulate many toxic contaminants and thus reveal the status of input for these constituents. In the watershed, loading estimates indicate that the major sources of contaminants are point sources, stormwater runoff, atmospheric deposition, and spills. Point sources and urban runoff in the Bay proper contribute large quantities of contaminants. Pesticide inputs to the Bay have not been quantified. Baltimore Harbor and the Elizabeth River remain among the most contaminated areas in the Unites States. In the mainstem, deep sediment core analyses indicate that sediment accumulation rates are 2-10 times higher in the northern Bay than in the middle and lower Bay, and that sedimentation rates are 2-10 times higher than before European settlement throughout the Bay (NOAA 1998). The core samples show a decline in selected PAH compounds over the past several decades, but absolute concentrations are still 1 to 2 orders of magnitude above 'pristine' conditions. Core data also indicate that concentrations of PAHs, PCBs and, organochlorine pesticides do not demonstrate consistent trends over 25 years, but remain 10 times lower than sediments in the tributaries. In contrast, tri-butyl-tin (TBT) concentrations in the deep cores have declined significantly since it=s use was severely restricted. (PDF contains 241 pages)

A livelihoods study of fishers and farmers in Long An Province

This is the report of a livelihoods study team working together with people from two villages in Long An Province, Vietnam. The study is based on information provided by the villagers, who shared their knowledge and spoke about real problems they face with their livelihoods. This study was conducted from 11-20 October 2001. The team worked with key informants in two communes, Thuan Nghia Hoa and My Thanh Dong, who volunteered to participate and represented the 177 households in the village. (PDF contains 40 pages)

A livelihoods study of fishers and farmers in Quang Tri Province

This is the report of a livelihoods study team working together with villagers from two communes in Quang Tri Province, Vietnam: Ta Long Commune in Dakrong District and A Tuc Commune in Huong Hoa District. The study is based on information provided by members of the communes, who shared their knowledge and spoke about real problems they face with their livelihoods. This study was conducted from 10-22 October 2001. The team worked with key informants in two communes who volunteered to participate and represented the households in the village. (PDF contains 31 pages)

A livelihoods study of fishers and farmers in Thai Nguyen Province

This is the report of a livelihoods study team working together with members of two communes in Quang Tri Province, Vietnam. The study is based on information provided by the commune members, who shared their knowledge and spoke about real problems they face with their livelihoods. The study was conducted from 10-30 October 2001. The team worked with key informants in two communes, Dan Tien in Vo Nhia District and Phuong Tien in Dinh Hoa District, who participated in discussions and represented households in the commune. The livelihoods studies in Dan Tien and Phuong Tien communes explored existing human, labor and natural resources as well as other factors affecting people’s livelihoods. (PDF contains 32 pages)