Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Evaluation of the xenodiagnosis of chronic Chagas patients infected ten years or over in an area where transmission has been interrupted - Iguatama and Pains, west Minas Gerais State, Brazil

To evaluate the results of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas patients infected for ten years or over in an area where transmission has been stemmed as well as the performance of these tests applied one or more times to determine the presence of the paraiste in serum-positive patients for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, 570 xenodiagnosis were performed in 246 patients by exoposing each pacient to 40 Triatoma infestans nymphs of 3 rd/4th stage once, twice or three times, at 30 days intervals. The 570 xenodiagnosis showed overall positive results in 50.7% with a peak 78% in patients under 20 years of age, and 60.5% in those over 60. Of the l58 patients who underwent three xenodiagnosis, 51 (32.3%) had three positive tests, 48 (30.3%) had all negative results, and the remainder had alternating positve and negative findings. There was no difference in number of positive results between the 1st, 2nd and 2rd tests; however, the 1st and 2nd trials added up to 53.2% and the sum total of all three trials was 57.7%.

Serological survey for canine cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in areas at risk for transmission in Rio de Janeiro where prophylatic measures had been adopted

A serological survery for canine visceral (VL) and American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) has been carried out during 1984-1989, to assess the effects of the prophylactic measures adopted in areas where there was a risk of transmission of the diseases in Rio de Janeiro. A previous serologival survey (1982/83) had detected serum positive dogas as well as the human disease in these same areas. A total fo 22,828 dogs have been examined in this last survey, 7,807 of which came from Campo Grande (VL and ACL area), 4,110 from Jacarepaguá (ACL area), 4,l46 from Realengo, 3,879 from Bangu and 2,886 from Senador Camará, (three VL areas). The analysis of these results showed a notable reduction in the number of serum positve dogs, compared to those of the first survey was 12.7%, against 0.62% of the second; (b) in Jacarepaguá (ACL) it decreased from 8.6%) to l.8% (c) in Bangu, Realengo and Senador Camará (VL) the rate decreased from 4.3% to 0.38%. The results indicate that this decrease was due to the prophylactic measures adopted in those areas.

Stable transmission of targeted gene modification using single-stranded oligonucleotides with flanking LNAs.

Targeted mutagenesis directed by oligonucleotides (ONs) is a promising method for manipulating the genome in higher eukaryotes. In this study, we have compared gene editing by different ONs on two new target sequences, the eBFP and the rd1 mutant photoreceptor betaPDE cDNAs, which were integrated as single copy transgenes at the same genomic site in 293T cells. Interestingly, antisense ONs were superior to sense ONs for one target only, showing that target sequence can by itself impart strand-bias in gene editing. The most efficient ONs were short 25 nt ONs with flanking locked nucleic acids (LNAs), a chemistry that had only been tested for targeted nucleotide mutagenesis in yeast, and 25 nt ONs with phosphorothioate linkages. We showed that LNA-modified ONs mediate dose-dependent target modification and analyzed the importance of LNA position and content. Importantly, when using ONs with flanking LNAs, targeted gene modification was stably transmitted during cell division, which allowed reliable cloning of modified cells, a feature essential for further applications in functional genomics and gene therapy. Finally, we showed that ONs with flanking LNAs aimed at correcting the rd1 stop mutation could promote survival of photoreceptors in retinas of rd1 mutant mice, suggesting that they are also active in vivo.

Household-based malaria control in a highly endemic area of Africa (Tanzania): determinants of transmission and disease and indicators for monitoring - Kilombero Malaria Project

The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.

Transmission and diagnosis of equine babesiosis in South Africa

The transmission and prevalence of Babesia equi and B. caballi are being studied. Rhipicephalus evertsi mimeticus an ixodid tick from Namibia was identified as a new vector of B. equi, however, R. turanicus, previously reported to be a vector, failed to transmit both B. equi and B. caballi in the laboratory. The accurate diagnosis of B. caballi is being investigated because the nature of its low level parasitaemia does not allow easy detection in thin blood smears, routinely used for diagnosis, by clinicians. Consequently its role as a pathogen remains obscure. The importance of identifying infected horses, destined for export to Babesia-free coutries, is also stressed. Thock and thin blood smears, serology (IFAT) and DNA probes are currently employed to study disease prevalence. To date 293 healthy, adult, throughbred horses have been screened by all three methods. The percentage positives are as follows: B. equi 4.4%, 70.6%, 13% and B. caballi 0.7%, 37%, 18.4% respectively. The DNA probes were more sensitive than blood smear examination for diagnosing carrier infections but are probably not sensitive enough to identify all carrier infections. A poor correlation was found between detection of the parasites' DNA and seropositivity. However, polymerase chain reaction could be used to amplify parasite DNA in a particular sample and its could result in more accurate diagnosis.

Transmission immunity in malaria: reflections on the underlying immune mechanisms during natural infections and following artificial immunization

Malaria transmission-blocking immunity has been studied in natural malaria infections in man, during infections in animals and following artificial immunization of animals with sexual stage malaria parasites. Effective immunity, which prevents infectivity of a malarial infection to mosquitoes, has been observed under all of these circumstances. Two general types of effector mechanism have been identified. One is an antibody mediated mechanism which acts against the extracellular sexual stages of the parasite within the midgut of a blood feeding mosquito. The other is a cytokine mediated mechanism which inactivates the gametocytes of the parasites while in the circulation of the vertebrate host. Both effects have been observed during natural infections and following artificial immunization. The basis of induction of transmission-blocking immunity, including the nature of the memory for such immunity, however, may be very different in different host/parasite systems and during natural infection of following artificial immunization. Following artificial immunization a strong immune memory for transmission blocking immunity has been observed in animal systems. By contrast, following natural infections in man immune memory for transmission blocking immunity has been found to be weak and short lived if it occurs at all. It is suggested that the immunogens which induce natural transmission blocking immunity may be CD4+ independent.

Efficacy of insecticide impregnated bed-nets to control malaria in a rural forested area in Southern Cameron

Due to current spreading of chemoresistant strains of Plasmodium falciparum malaria control must incorporate vector control programmes. Due to well known constraints house sprayings cannot be performed as before. Personal protection can be developed and a large scale use of insecticide treated bed-nets appeared to be very useful to reduce man-vector contact in Asia, South America and West and East Africa. No trial has done is forest Central Africa where transmission is permanent. We performed such a trial in the southern part of Cameroon (using deltamethrin, at 25mg/m*) and obtained similar data to those observed in the Gambia Burkina Faso and Tanzania with a noteworthy reduction of both transmission and high parasitaemia of P. falciparum (respectively 78% and 75%) meaning a drop of malaria morbidity.

Transmission factors in malaria epidemiology and control in Africa

Genetic and environmental components of factors contributing in malaria transmission are reviewed. Particular attention is given to density dependent regulation of vector populations in relation to the survival rate anophelines. The expectation of vector activities are different according to the epidemiological characteristics of malaria, mainly its stability. In areas with perennial and high transmission (stable malaria) vector control could reduce malaria related morbidity and mortality, whithout any effect on the endemicity. However this need further investigations. In areas where the transmission period is very short (unstable malaria), vector control will have an important impact on the disease and the endemicity. Control projects using indoor spraying with insecticide and impregnated bed nets are discussed.

Brazilian contributions to epidemiological aspects of schistosomiasis mansoni

A review of epidemiological aspects of endemic areas for schistosomiasis, especially in Brazil, will be presented. These studies, performed by several authors from different states of the country, have been very useful in indicating the relative efficacy of control measures. For example quoting only one aspect, specific treatment was demonstrated by Brazilian researches to be the most important individual tool for morbidity control. More recently the study of risk factors in endemic areas has been seen to be a very important approach when transmission control is the final goal.

Ecological studies on the intermediate host snails and the relevance to schistosomiasis control

A detailed knoledge of distribution patterns schistosome intermediate hsts and their populations dynamics and factors affecting these patterns will provide useful information about the possibilities and desirability of conducting snail control measures in various transmission situations. On the basis of various case studies the association between the occurence of human water contacts and the presence of schistosome intermediate hosts or infections in the intermediate hosts is illustrated. Other parameters affecting snail distribution patterns and density fluctuations are discussed. It is concluded that ecological studies on the intermediate host are extremely relevant, either to optimally apply existing control measures or to develop alternative measures of snail control, such as ecological or biological control.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa adhesion to normal and injured respiratory mucosa

Human nasal polyps outgrowth culture were used to study the adhesion of Pseudomonas aeruginosa to respiratory cells. By transmission electron microscopy, bacteria associated with ciliated cells were identified trapped at the extremities of cilia, usually as aggregates of several bacterial cells. They were never seen at the interciliary spaces or attached along cilia. Bacteria were also seen to adhere to migrating cells of the periphery of the outgrowth culture. Using a model of repair of wounded respiratory epithelial cells in culture, we observed that the adhesion of P. aeruginosa to migrating cells of the edges of the repairing wounds was significantly higher than the adhesion to non-migrating cells and that adherent bacteria were surrounded by a fibrocnectin-containing fibrillar material The secretion of extracellular matrix components is involved in the process of epithelium repair following injury. To investigate the molecular basis of P. aeruginosa adhesion to migrating cells, bacteria were treated with a fibronectin solution before their incubation with the respiratory cells. P. aeruginosa treatment by fibronectin significantly increased their adhesion to migrating cells. Accordingly, we hypothesize that during cell migration, fibronectin secreted by epithelial cells may favour P. aeruginosa adhesion by establishing a bridge between the bacteria and the epithelial cell receptors. Such a mechanism may represent a critical step for P. aeruginosa infection of healing injured epithelium.

Improved virological outcome in White patients infected with HIV-1 non-B subtypes compared to subtype B.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral compounds have been predominantly studied in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B, but only ~10% of infections worldwide are caused by this subtype. The analysis of the impact of different HIV subtypes on treatment outcome is important. METHODS: The effect of HIV-1 subtype B and non-B on the time to virological failure while taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was analyzed. Other studies that have addressed this question were limited by the strong correlation between subtype and ethnicity. Our analysis was restricted to white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who started cART between 1996 and 2009. Cox regression models were performed; adjusted for age, sex, transmission category, first cART, baseline CD4 cell counts, and HIV RNA levels; and stratified for previous mono/dual nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor treatment. RESULTS: Included in our study were 4729 patients infected with subtype B and 539 with non-B subtypes. The most prevalent non-B subtypes were CRF02_AG (23.8%), A (23.4%), C (12.8%), and CRF01_AE (12.6%). The incidence of virological failure was higher in patients with subtype B (4.3 failures/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-4.5]) compared with non-B (1.8 failures/100 person-years; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4). Cox regression models confirmed that patients infected with non-B subtypes had a lower risk of virological failure than those infected with subtype B (univariable hazard ratio [HR], 0.39 [95% CI, .30-.52; P < .001]; multivariable HR, 0.68 [95% CI, .51-.91; P = .009]). In particular, subtypes A and CRF02_AG revealed improved outcomes (multivariable HR, 0.54 [95% CI, .29-.98] and 0.39 [95% CI, .19-.79], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Improved virological outcomes among patients infected with non-B subtypes invalidate concerns that these individuals are at a disadvantage because drugs have been designed primarily for subtype B infections.

Cultural transmission can inhibit the evolution of altruistic helping.

The study of culturally inherited traits has led to the suggestion that the evolution of helping behaviors is more likely with cultural transmission than without. Here we evaluate this idea through a comparative analysis of selection on helping under both genetic and cultural inheritance. We develop two simple models for the evolution of helping through cultural group selection: one in which selection on the trait depends solely on Darwinian fitness effects and one in which selection is driven by nonreproductive factors, specifically imitation of strategies achieving higher payoffs. We show that when cultural variants affect Darwinian fitness, the selection pressure on helping can be markedly increased relative to that under genetic transmission. By contrast, when variants are driven by nonreproductive factors, the selection pressure on helping may be reduced relative to that under genetic inheritance. This occurs because, unlike biological offspring, the spread of cultural variants from one group to another through imitation does not reduce the number of these variants in the source group. As a consequence, there is increased within-group competition associated with traits increasing group productivity, which reduces the benefits of helping. In these cases, selection for harming behavior (decreasing the payoff to neighbors) may occur rather than selection for helping.

Prevalence of antibodies to Hepatitis C virus in populations at low and high risk for sexually transmited diseases in Rio de Janeiro

In order to investigate the sexual transmission of the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV), the prevalence of specific antibodies in populations at high and low risk for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) was evaluated. The population at low risk for STDs was composed of persons who voluntarity donated blood at the Hospital Universitário Clementino Fraga Filho (HUCFF) between July and November, 1990 (n = 2494). The population at high risk for STDs was drawn from an ongoing study on the natural history of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection (n = 210, 187 with sexual risk factors for HIV infection). All samples were screened using a first generation ELISA. Repeat reactive samples were then tested in a second generation RIBA. For all ELISA positive samples, two sex and age-matched ELISA negative controls were selected. Data pertaining to the presence of antibodies to the Hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBC antibodies) and to Treponema pallidum were abstracted from the medical records. The prevalence of RIBA 2 confirmed HCV infection among the blood donors was 2.08%, which is well above the reported prevalence in similar populations from developed western countries. Among the HIV infected homosexuals, the encountered prevalence was 7.96% (p < 0.0005). For the whole group with sexually acquired HIV infection, the prevalence was 8.02% (p < 0.000005). Anti-HBc antibodies were more frequently present in anti-HCV RIBA-2 confirmed positive blood donors than in controls (p < 0.001). 33.3% of the HCV-positive blood donors and 11.04% controls were found to be anti-HBc positive (p < 0.0005). As for the FTA-ABs, 17.6% HCV-positive donors and 4,9% controls were positive (p < 0.01). 5.9% samples from blood donors were both anti-HBc and FTA-ABS positive, whereas none of the controls reacted in both tests (p < 0.05). The association between HCV, Hepatitis B infection and syphilis in individuals at low risk for parenterally transmitted diseases suggests that sexual transmission contributes to the maintenance of the endemicity of HCV in the local population.