994 resultados para North Atlantic Oscillation


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Growing evidence suggests environmental change to be most severe across the semi-arid subtropics, with past, present and projected drying of the Mediterranean Basin posing a key multidisciplinary challenge. Consideration of a single climatic factor, however, often fails to explain spatiotemporal growth dynamics of drought-prone ecosystems. Here, we present annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurements of 871 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) from 18 individual plot sites in the Central Spanish Pinar Grande forest reserve. Although comprising tree ages from 6 to 175 years, this network correlates surprisingly well with the inverse May–July diurnal temperature range (r = 0.84; p < 0.00011956–2011). Ring width extremes were triggered by pressure anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term growth decline coincided with Iberian-wide drying since the mid-1970s. Climate model simulations not only confirm this negative trend over the last decades but also project drought to continuously increase over the 21st century. Associated ecological effects and socio-economic consequences should be considered to improve adaptation strategies of agricultural and forest management, as well as biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The decadal-scale variability in winter hazardous winds in northern Switzerland from 1871 to present is investigated in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). Independent wind speed measurements taken at Zurich climate station show that the interannual and decadal variability in hazardous winds in northern Switzerland is realistically represented in the 20CR. Both time series exhibit pronounced decadal-scale variability with periods between approximately 36 and 47 years. At these periodicities, the hazardous wind variability in northern Switzerland is positively correlated with the variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation, however the strength and statistical significance of their co-variability varies over time.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a global warming hotspot, where future climate impacts are expected to have significant consequences on societal and ecosystem well-being. To put ongoing trends of summer climate into the context of past natural variability, we reconstructed climate from maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of Pinus heldreichii (1521–2010) and latewood width (LWW) of Pinus nigra (1617–2010) on Mt. Olympus, Greece. Previous research in the northeastern Mediterranean has primarily focused on inter-annual variability, omitting any low-frequency trends. The present study utilizes methods capable of retaining climatically driven long-term behavior of tree growth. The LWW chronology corresponds closely to early summer moisture variability (May–July, r = 0.65, p < 0.001, 1950–2010), whereas the MXD-chronology relates mainly to late summer warmth (July–September, r = 0.64, p < 0.001; 1899–2010). The chronologies show opposing patterns of decadal variability over the twentieth century (r = −0.68, p < 0.001) and confirm the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) for summer climate in the northeastern Mediterranean, with positive sNAO phases inducing cold anomalies and enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. The combined reconstructions document the late twentieth—early twenty-first century warming and drying trend, but indicate generally drier early summer and cooler late summer conditions in the period ~1700–1900 CE. Our findings suggest a potential decoupling between twentieth century atmospheric circulation patterns and pre-industrial climate variability. Furthermore, the range of natural climate variability stretches beyond summer moisture availabilityobserved in recent decades and thus lends credibility to the significant drying trends projected for this region in current Earth System Model simulations.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Marine sediments from the Portuguese shelf are influenced by environmental changes in the surrounding continental and marine environment. These are largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, but additional impacts may arise from episodic tsunamis. In order to investigate these influences, a high resolution multi-proxy study has been carried out on a 5.4 m long gravity core and five box cores from the Tagus prodelta on the western Portuguese margin, incorporating geochemical (Corg/Ntotal ratios, d13Corg, d15N, d18O, Corg and CaCO3 content) and physical sediment properties (magnetic susceptibility, grain-size). Subsurface data of the five box cores indicate no major effect of early postdepositional alteration. Surface data show a higher fraction of terrigenous organic material close to the river mouth and in the southern prodelta. Gravity core GeoB 8903 covers the last 3.2 kyrs with a temporal resolution of at least 0.1 cm/yr. Very high sedimentation rates between 69 and 140 cm core depth indicate a possible disturbance of the record by the AD1755 tsunami, although no evidence for a disturbance is observed in the data. Sea surface temperature and salinity on the prodelta, the local budget of marine NO3- as well as the provenance of organic matter remained virtually constant during the past 3.2 kyrs. A positive correlation between magnetic susceptibility (MS) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is evident for the past 250 years, coinciding with a negative correlation between mean grain-size and NAO. This is assigned to a constant riverine supply of fine material with high MS, which is diluted by the riverine input of a coarser, low-MS component during NAO negative, high-precipitation phases. End-member modelling of the lithic grain-size spectrum supports this, revealing a third, coarse lithic component. The high abundance of this coarse end-member prior to 2 kyr BP is interpreted as the result of stronger bottom currents, concentrating the coarse sediment fraction by winnowing. As continental climate was more arid prior to 2 kyr BP (Subboreal), the coarse end-member may also consist of dust from local sources. A decrease in grain-size and CaCO3 content after 2 kyr BP is interpreted as a result of decreasing wind strength. The onset of a fining trend and a further decrease in CaCO3 around AD900 occurs simultaneous to climatic variations, reconstructed from eastern North Atlantic records. A strong increase in MS between AD1400 and AD1500 indicates higher lithic terrigenous input, caused by deforestation in the hinterland.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100-4350, 3450-2850, and 1900-1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct ~1500-year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Twenty ice cores drilled in medium to high accumulation areas of the Greenland ice sheet have been used to extract seasonally resolved stable isotope records. Relationships between the seasonal stable isotope data and Greenland and Icelandic temperatures as well as atmospheric flow are investigated for the past 150-200 years. The winter season stable isotope data are found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and very closely related to SW Greenland temperatures. The linear correlation between the first principal component of the winter season stable isotope data and Greenland winter temperatures is 0.71 for seasonally resolved data and 0.83 for decadally filtered data. The summer season stable isotope data display higher correlations with Stykkisholmur summer temperatures and North Atlantic SST conditions than with SW Greenland temperatures. The linear correlation between Stykkisholmur summer temperatures and the first principal component of the summer season stable isotope data is 0.56, increasing to 0.66 for decadally filtered data. Winter season stable isotope data from ice core records that reach more than 1400 years back in time suggest that the warm period that began in the 1920s raised southern Greenland temperatures to the same level as those that prevailed during the warmest intervals of the Medieval Warm Period some 900-1300 years ago. This observation is supported by a southern Greenland ice core borehole temperature inversion. As Greenland borehole temperature inversions are found to correspond better with winter stable isotope data than with summer or annual average stable isotope data it is suggested that a strong local Greenland temperature signal can be extracted from the winter stable isotope data even on centennial to millennial time scales.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) core can enhance our understanding of the relationship between parameters measured in the ice in central Greenland and variability in the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere of the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent land masses. Seasonal (summer, winter) to annual responses of dD and deuterium excess isotopic signals in the GISP2 core to the seesaw in winter temperatures between West Greenland and northern Europe from A.D. 1840 to 1970 are investigated. This seesaw represents extreme modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which also influences sea surface temperatures (SSTs), atmospheric pressures, geostrophic wind strength, and sea ice extents beyond the winter season. Temperature excursions inferred from the dD record during seesaw/extreme NAO mode years move in the same direction as the West Greenland side of the seesaw. Symmetry with the West Greenland side of the seesaw suggests a possible mechanism for damping in the ice core record of the lowest decadal temperatures experienced in Europe from A.D. 1500 to 1700. Seasonal and annual deuterium excess excursions during seesaw years show negative correlation with dD. This suggests an isotopic response to a SST/ land temperature seesaw. The isotopic record from GISP2 may therefore give information on both ice sheet and sea surface temperature variability. Cross-plots of dD and d show a tendency for data to be grouped according to the prevailing mode of the seesaw, but do not provide unambiguous identification of individual seesaw years. A combination of ice core and tree ring data sets may allow more confident identification of GA and GB (extreme NAO mode) years prior to 1840.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We investigated two lignite quarries in northern Greece for orbital and suborbital climate variability. Sections Lava and Vegora are located at the southern and northern boundaries of the Ptolemais Basin, a northwest southeast elongated intramontane basin that contains Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene lacustrine sediments. Sediments show cyclic alterations of marl-rich (light), and coal-rich or clay-rich (dark) strata on a decimeter to meter scale. First, we established low-resolution ground-truth stratigraphy based on paleomagnetics and biostratigraphy. Accordingly, the lower 67 m and 65 m that were investigated in both sections Vegora and Lava, respectively, belong to the Upper Miocene and cover a time period of 6.85 to 6.57 and 6.46 to 5.98 Ma at sedimentation rates of roughly 14 and 22 cm/ka. In order to obtain a robust and high-resolution chronology, we then tuned carbonate minima (low L* values; high magnetic susceptibility values) to insolation minima. Besides the known dominance of orbital precession and eccentricity, we detected a robust hemi-precessional cycle in most parameters, most likely indicative for monsoonal influence on climate. Moreover, the insolation-forced time series indicate a number of millennial-scale frequencies that are statistically significant with dominant periods of 1.5-8 kyr. Evolutionary spectral analysis indicates that millennial-scale climate variability documented for the Ptolemais Basin resembles the one that is preserved in ice-core records of Greenland. Most cycles show durations of several tens of thousands of years before they diminish or cease. This is surprising because the generally argued cause for Late Quaternary millennial-scale variability is associated with the presence of large ice sheets, which cannot be the case for the Upper Miocene. Possible explanations maybe a direct response to solar forcing, an influence on the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water through the outflow of high-salinity water, or an atmospheric link to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The marine laboratories in Plymouth have sampled at two principle sites in the Western English Channel for over a century in open-shelf (station E1; 50° 02'N, 4° 22'W) and coastal (station L4; 50° 15'N, 4° 13'W) waters. These stations are seasonally stratified from late-April until September, and the variable biological response is regulated by subtle variations in temperature, light, nutrients and meteorology. Station L4 is characterized by summer nutrient depletion, although intense summer precipitation, increasing riverine input to the system, results in pulses of increased nitrate concentration and surface freshening. The winter nutrient concentrations at E1 are consistent with an open-shelf site. Both stations have a spring and autumn phytoplankton bloom; at station E1, the autumn bloom tends to dominate in terms of chlorophyll concentration. The last two decades have seen a warming of around 0.6°C per decade, and this is superimposed on several periods of warming and cooling over the past century. In general, over the Western English Channel domain, the end of the 20th century was around 0.5°C warmer than the first half of the century. The warming magnitude and trend is consistent with other stations across the north-west European Shelf and occurred during a period of reduced wind stress and increased levels of insolation (+20%); these are both correlated with the larger scale climatic forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

To obtain insight into character and potential forcing of short-term climatic and oceanographic variability in the southern Italian region during the "Roman Classical Period" (60 BC-AD 200), climatic and environmental reconstructions based on a dinoflagelate cyst record from a well dated site in the Gulf of Taranto located at the distal end of the Po-river discharge plume have been established with high temporal resolution. Short-term fluctuations in accumulation rates of the Adriatic Surface Water species Lingulodinium machaerophorum, the freshwater algae Concentricystes and species resistant to aerobic degradation indicate that fluctuations in the trophic state of the upper waters are related to river discharge of northern and eastern Italian rivers which in turn are strongly related to precipitation in Italy. The dinoflagellate cyst association indicates that local sea surface temperatures which in this region are strongly linked to local air temperatures were slightly higher than today. We reconstruct that sea surface temperatures have been relatively high and stable between 60 BC-AD 90 and show a decreasing trend after AD 90. Fluctuations in temperature and river discharge rates have a strong cyclic character with main cyclicities of 7-8 and 11 years. We argue that these cycles are related to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation climate mode. A strong correlation is observed with global variation in Delta14C anomalies suggesting that solar variability might be one of the major forcings of the regional climate. Apart from cyclic climate variability we observed a good correlation between non-cyclic temperature drops and global volcanic activity indicating that the latter forms an additional major forcing factor of the southern Italian climate during the Roman Classical Period.