Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Ultrahigh Brilliance Multi-MeV γ-Ray Beams from Nonlinear Relativistic Thomson Scattering

We report on the generation of a narrow divergence (θγ<2.5mrad), multi-MeV (Emax≈18MeV) and ultrahigh peak brilliance (>1.8×1020photonss-1mm-2mrad-2 0.1% BW) γ-ray beam from the scattering of an ultrarelativistic laser-wakefield accelerated electron beam in the field of a relativistically intense laser (dimensionless amplitude a0≈2). The spectrum of the generated γ-ray beam is measured, with MeV resolution, seamlessly from 6 to 18 MeV, giving clear evidence of the onset of nonlinear relativistic Thomson scattering. To the best of our knowledge, this photon source has the highest peak brilliance in the multi-MeV regime ever reported in the literature.

The organizational ecology of ethnic cleavages: The nonlinear effects of ethnic diversity on party system fragmentation

The conventional wisdom regarding party system fragmentation assumes that the effects of electoral systems and social cleavages are linear. However, recent work applying organizational ecology theories to the study of party systems has challenged the degree to which electoral system effects are linear. This paper applies such concepts to the study of social cleavages. Drawing from theories of organizational ecology and the experience of many ethnically diverse African party systems, I argue that the effects of ethnic diversity are nonlinear, with party system fragmentation increasing until reaching moderate levels of diversity before declining as diversity reaches extreme values. Examining this argument cross-nationally, the results show that accounting for nonlinearity in ethnic diversity effects significantly improves model fit.

Modeling relativistic soliton interactions in overdense plasmas: A perturbed nonlinear Schrodinger equation framework

We investigate the dynamics of localized solutions of the relativistic cold-fluid plasma model in the small but finite amplitude limit, for slightly overcritical plasma density. Adopting a multiple scale analysis, we derive a perturbed nonlinear Schrodinger equation that describes the evolution of the envelope of circularly polarized electromagnetic field. Retaining terms up to fifth order in the small perturbation parameter, we derive a self-consistent framework for the description of the plasma response in the presence of localized electromagnetic field. The formalism is applied to standing electromagnetic soliton interactions and the results are validated by simulations of the full cold-fluid model. To lowest order, a cubic nonlinear Schrodinger equation with a focusing nonlinearity is recovered. Classical quasiparticle theory is used to obtain analytical estimates for the collision time and minimum distance of approach between solitons. For larger soliton amplitudes the inclusion of the fifth-order terms is essential for a qualitatively correct description of soliton interactions. The defocusing quintic nonlinearity leads to inelastic soliton collisions, while bound states of solitons do not persist under perturbations in the initial phase or amplitude

Pressure anisotropy effects on nonlinear electrostatic excitations in magnetized electron-positron-ion plasmas

The propagation of linear and nonlinear electrostatic waves is investigated in a magnetized anisotropic electron-positron-ion (e-p-i) plasma with superthermal electrons and positrons. A two-dimensional plasma geometry is assumed. The ions are assumed to be warm and anisotropic due to an external magnetic field. The anisotropic ion pressure is defined using the double adiabatic Chew-Golberger-Low (CGL) theory. In the linear regime, two normal modes are predicted, whose characteristics are investigated parametrically, focusing on the effect of superthermality of electrons and positrons, ion pressure anisotropy, positron concentration and magnetic field strength. A Zakharov-Kuznetsov (ZK) type equation is derived for the electrostatic potential (disturbance) via a reductive perturbation method. The parametric role of superthermality, positron content, ion pressure anisotropy and magnetic field strength on the characteristics of solitary wave structures is investigated. Following Allen and Rowlands [J. Plasma Phys. 53, 63 (1995)], we have shown that the pulse soliton solution of the ZK equation is unstable to oblique perturbations, and have analytically traced the dependence of the instability growth rate on superthermality and ion pressure anisotropy.

Tailoring the nonlinear frequency coupling between odd harmonics for the optimisation of charged particle dynamics in capacitively coupled oxygen plasmas

The influence of nonlinear frequency coupling in an oxygen plasma excited by two odd harmonics at moderate pressure is investigated using a numerical model. Through variations in the voltage ratio and phase shift between the frequency components changes in ionization dynamics and sheath voltages are demonstrated. Furthermore, a regime in which the voltage drop across the plasma sheath is minimised is identified. This regime provides a significantly higher ion flux than a single frequency discharge driven by the lower of the two frequencies alone. These operating parameters have potential to be exploited for plasma processes requiring low ion bombardment energies but high ion fluxes. 

Nonreciprocal nonlinear scattering by stacked magnetoactive semiconductor layers

The combinatorial frequency generation by the periodic stacks of magnetically biased semiconductor layers has been modelled in the self-consistent problem formulation, taking into account the nonlinear dynamics of carriers. It has been shown that the nonlinear response of the magnetoactive semiconductor periodic structure is strongly enhanced by magnetic bias and combinations of the layer physical and geometrical parameters. The effects of the pump wave nonreciprocal reflectance and field displacement on the efficiency of three-wave mixing process is illustrated by the simulation results

Nonlinear hydrodynamic Langmuir waves in fully degenerate relativistic plasma

The combined effect of special relativity and electron degeneracy on Langmuir waves is analyzed by utilizing a rigorous fully relativistic hydrodynamic model. Assuming a traveling wave solution form, a set of conservation laws is identified, together with a pseudo-potential function depending on the relativistic parameter p<inf>F</inf>/(m c) (where p<inf>F</inf> is the Fermi momentum, m is the mass of the charge carriers and c the speed of light), as well as on the amplitude of the electrostatic energy perturbation.

Developed turbulence and nonlinear amplification of magnetic fields in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas

The visible matter in the universe is turbulent and magnetized. Turbulence in galaxy clusters is produced by mergers and by jets of the central galaxies and believed responsible for the amplification of magnetic fields. We report on experiments looking at the collision of two laser-produced plasma clouds, mimicking, in the laboratory, a cluster merger event. By measuring the spectrum of the density fluctuations, we infer developed, Kolmogorov-like turbulence. From spectral line broadening, we estimate a level of turbulence consistent with turbulent heating balancing radiative cooling, as it likely does in galaxy clusters. We show that the magnetic field is amplified by turbulent motions, reaching a nonlinear regime that is a precursor to turbulent dynamo. Thus, our experiment provides a promising platform for understanding the structure of turbulence and the amplification of magnetic fields in the universe.

Forward and backward least angle regression for nonlinear system identification

A forward and backward least angle regression (LAR) algorithm is proposed to construct the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) that is widely used to describe a large class of nonlinear dynamic systems. The main objective of this paper is to improve model sparsity and generalization performance of the original forward LAR algorithm. This is achieved by introducing a replacement scheme using an additional backward LAR stage. The backward stage replaces insignificant model terms selected by forward LAR with more significant ones, leading to an improved model in terms of the model compactness and performance. A numerical example to construct four types of NARX models, namely polynomials, radial basis function (RBF) networks, neuro fuzzy and wavelet networks, is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique in comparison with some popular methods.

Kernel based approaches to local nonlinear non-parametric variable selection

In this paper, we consider the variable selection problem for a nonlinear non-parametric system. Two approaches are proposed, one top-down approach and one bottom-up approach. The top-down algorithm selects a variable by detecting if the corresponding partial derivative is zero or not at the point of interest. The algorithm is shown to have not only the parameter but also the set convergence. This is critical because the variable selection problem is binary, a variable is either selected or not selected. The bottom-up approach is based on the forward/backward stepwise selection which is designed to work if the data length is limited. Both approaches determine the most important variables locally and allow the unknown non-parametric nonlinear system to have different local dimensions at different points of interest. Further, two potential applications along with numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed algorithms.