Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Space-based lidar measurements of global ocean carbon stocks

Global ocean phytoplankton biomass (C-phyto) and total particulate organic carbon (POC) stocks have largely been characterized from space using passive ocean color measurements. A space-based light detection and ranging (lidar) system can provide valuable complementary observations for C-phyto and POC assessments, with benefits including day-night sampling, observations through absorbing aerosols and thin cloud layers, and capabilities for vertical profiling through the water column. Here we use measurements from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) to quantify global C-phyto and POC from retrievals of subsurface particulate backscatter coefficients (b(bp)). CALIOP b(bp) data compare favorably with airborne, ship-based, and passive ocean data and yield global average mixed-layer standing stocks of 0.44 Pg C for C-phyto and 1.9 Pg for POC. CALIOP-based C-phyto and POC data exhibit global distributions and seasonal variations consistent with ocean plankton ecology. Our findings support the use of spaceborne lidar measurements for advancing understanding of global plankton systems.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

A 'ruin of all space, shattered glass and toppling masonry': Joyce's Orientalism in the Context of 11 September 2001 and 1922

Chapters 3 and 15 of Joyce's Ulysses exhibit glimpses of three dreams, fantasies and eventual nightmares linked to the figure of 'Haroun al Raschid.' Historically speaking, the latter was a powerful Caliph of Baghdad, a medieval potentate about whom many of the most memorable of The Thousand and One Nights or The Arabian Nights' Entertainments were once and then again spun as tales of pleasure. Joyce seizes upon the figure of 'Haroun al Raschid' as a fictive measure to articulate the 'orientalist' fantasies of Stephen Dedalus and Leopold Bloom. However, this evocative figure of Near Eastern history, of fabulous narrative and the progressively converging fantasies of two modern European literary characters is riddled with paradox. Such material provides Joyce a perceptive and proleptic sense of the paradoxes and brutal historical contradictions through which Western and Eastern dreams of theocratic nationalism, ethnic zealotry, colonial rebellion and Zionism are to be played out. W. B. Yeats' poem 'The Gift of Harun al-Raschid', written in 1923, the year after the book publication of Ulysses, provides both a fitting foil and a significant socio-historical point of reference for Joyce's own figurative use of the Caliph of Baghdad.

Performing Space

This article discusses how the notion of performance provides impetus for the design of interactive digital environments. These environments can ultimately be regarded as user-spaces; a condition which replaces the "fixed" art-object with a configuration of interactions. Our understanding of space, as suggested by Lefevbre (2001), defines the "inhabitant" as a full participant, a user, a performer of space. What is at play when the installation artist designs environments that invite performative exploration? The issue of improvised performance in the inhabiting of installation spaces is exposed. Two interactive installations by the author and works by others in the field provide a context for discussion for discussion and analysis.