975 resultados para Multivariate models


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An important safety aspect to be considered when foods are enriched with phytosterols and phytostanols is the oxidative stability of these lipid compounds, i.e. their resistance to oxidation and thus to the formation of oxidation products. This study concentrated on producing scientific data to support this safety evaluation process. In the absence of an official method for analyzing of phytosterol/stanol oxidation products, we first developed a new gas chromatographic - mass spectrometric (GC-MS) method. We then investigated factors affecting these compounds' oxidative stability in lipid-based food models in order to identify critical conditions under which significant oxidation reactions may occur. Finally, the oxidative stability of phytosterols and stanols in enriched foods during processing and storage was evaluated. Enriched foods covered a range of commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients, different heat treatments during food processing, and different multiphase food structures. The GC-MS method was a powerful tool for measuring the oxidative stability. Data obtained in food model studies revealed that the critical factors for the formation and distribution of the main secondary oxidation products were sterol structure, reaction temperature, reaction time, and lipid matrix composition. Under all conditions studied, phytostanols as saturated compounds were more stable than unsaturated phytosterols. In addition, esterification made phytosterols more reactive than free sterols at low temperatures, while at high temperatures the situation was the reverse. Generally, oxidation reactions were more significant at temperatures above 100°C. At lower temperatures, the significance of these reactions increased with increasing reaction time. The effect of lipid matrix composition was dependent on temperature; at temperatures above 140°C, phytosterols were more stable in an unsaturated lipid matrix, whereas below 140°C they were more stable in a saturated lipid matrix. At 140°C, phytosterols oxidized at the same rate in both matrices. Regardless of temperature, phytostanols oxidized more in an unsaturated lipid matrix. Generally, the distribution of oxidation products seemed to be associated with the phase of overall oxidation. 7-ketophytosterols accumulated when oxidation had not yet reached the dynamic state. Once this state was attained, the major products were 5,6-epoxyphytosterols and 7-hydroxyphytosterols. The changes observed in phytostanol oxidation products were not as informative since all stanol oxides quantified represented hydroxyl compounds. The formation of these secondary oxidation products did not account for all of the phytosterol/stanol losses observed during the heating experiments, indicating the presence of dimeric, oligomeric or other oxidation products, especially when free phytosterols and stanols were heated at high temperatures. Commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients were stable during such food processes as spray-drying and ultra high temperature (UHT)-type heating and subsequent long-term storage. Pan-frying, however, induced phytosterol oxidation and was classified as a rather deteriorative process. Overall, the findings indicated that although phytosterols and stanols are stable in normal food processing conditions, attention should be paid to their use in frying. Complex interactions between other food constituents also suggested that when new phytosterol-enriched foods are developed their oxidative stability must first be established. The results presented here will assist in choosing safe conditions for phytosterol/stanol enrichment.

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This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.

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We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

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The retinylidene Schiff base derivative of seven lysine containing peptides have been prepared in order to investigate solvent and neighboring group effects, on the absorption maximum of the protonated Schiff base chromophore. The peptides studied are Boc-Aib-Lys-Aib-OMe (1), Boc-Ala-Aib-Lys-OMe (2), Boc-Ala-Aib-Lys-Aib-OMe (3), Boc-Aib-Asp-Aib-Aib-Lys-Aib-OMe (4), Boc-Aib-Asp-Aib-Ala-Aib-Lys-Aib-OMe (5), Boc-Lys-Val-Gly-Phe-OMe (6) and Boc-Ser-Ala-Lys-Val-Gly-Phe-OMe (7). In all cases protonation shifts the absorption maxima to the red by 3150–8450 cm-1. For peptides 1–3 the protonation shifts are significantly larger in nonhydrogen bonding solvents like CHCl3 or CH2Cl2 as compared to hydrogen bonding solvents like CH3OH. The presence of a proximal Asp residue in 4 and 5 results in pronounced blue shift of the absorption maximum of the protonated Schiff base in CHCl3, relative to peptides lacking this residue. Peptides 6 and 7 represent small segments of the bacteriorhodopsin sequence in the vicinity of Lys-216. The presence of Ser reduces the magnitude of the protonation shift.

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The treatment of large segmental bone defects remains a significant clinical challenge. Due to limitations surrounding the use of bone grafts, tissue-engineered constructs for the repair of large bone defects could offer an alternative. Before translation of any newly developed tissue engineering (TE) approach to the clinic, efficacy of the treatment must be shown in a validated preclinical large animal model. Currently, biomechanical testing, histology, and microcomputed tomography are performed to assess the quality and quantity of the regenerated bone. However, in vivo monitoring of the progression of healing is seldom performed, which could reveal important information regarding time to restoration of mechanical function and acceleration of regeneration. Furthermore, since the mechanical environment is known to influence bone regeneration, and limb loading of the animals can poorly be controlled, characterizing activity and load history could provide the ability to explain variability in the acquired data sets and potentially outliers based on abnormal loading. Many approaches have been devised to monitor the progression of healing and characterize the mechanical environment in fracture healing studies. In this article, we review previous methods and share results of recent work of our group toward developing and implementing a comprehensive biomechanical monitoring system to study bone regeneration in preclinical TE studies.

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Options for the integrated management of white blister (caused by Albugo candida) of Brassica crops include the use of well timed overhead irrigation, resistant cultivars, programs of weekly fungicide sprays or strategic fungicide applications based on the disease risk prediction model, Brassica(spot)(TM). Initial systematic surveys of radish producers near Melbourne, Victoria, indicated that crops irrigated overhead in the morning (0800-1200 h) had a lower incidence of white blister than those irrigated overhead in the evening (2000-2400 h). A field trial was conducted from July to November 2008 on a broccoli crop located west of Melbourne to determine the efficacy and economics of different practices used for white blister control, modifying irrigation timing, growing a resistant cultivar and timing spray applications based on Brassica(spot)(TM). Growing the resistant cultivar, 'Tyson', instead of the susceptible cultivar, 'Ironman', reduced disease incidence on broccoli heads by 99 %. Overhead irrigation at 0400 h instead of 2000 h reduced disease incidence by 58 %. A weekly spray program or a spray regime based on either of two versions of the Brassica(spot)(TM) model provided similar disease control and reduced disease incidence by 72 to 83 %. However, use of the Brassica(spot)(TM) models greatly reduced the number of sprays required for control from 14 to one or two. An economic analysis showed that growing the more resistant cultivar increased farm profit per ha by 12 %, choosing morning irrigation by 3 % and using the disease risk predictive models compared with weekly sprays by 15 %. The disease risk predictive models were 4 % more profitable than the unsprayed control.

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We trace the evolution of the representation of management in cropping and grazing systems models, from fixed annual schedules of identical actions in single paddocks toward flexible scripts of rules. Attempts to define higher-level organizing concepts in management policies, and to analyse them to identify optimal plans, have focussed on questions relating to grazing management owing to its inherent complexity. “Rule templates” assist the re-use of complex management scripts by bundling commonly-used collections of rules with an interface through which key parameters can be input by a simulation builder. Standard issues relating to parameter estimation and uncertainty apply to management sub-models and need to be addressed. Techniques for embodying farmers' expectations and plans for the future within modelling analyses need to be further developed, especially better linking planning- and rule-based approaches to farm management and analysing the ways that managers can learn.

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Having the ability to work with complex models can be highly beneficial, but the computational cost of doing so is often large. Complex models often have intractable likelihoods, so methods that directly use the likelihood function are infeasible. In these situations, the benefits of working with likelihood-free methods become apparent. Likelihood-free methods, such as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood that uses the likelihood of an alternative parametric auxiliary model, have been explored throughout the literature as a good alternative when the model of interest is complex. One of these methods is called the synthetic likelihood (SL), which assumes a multivariate normal approximation to the likelihood of a summary statistic of interest. This paper explores the accuracy and computational efficiency of the Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (BSL) approach in comparison to a competitor known as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and its sensitivity to its tuning parameters and assumptions. We relate BSL to pseudo-marginal methods and propose to use an alternative SL that uses an unbiased estimator of the exact working normal likelihood when the summary statistic has a multivariate normal distribution. Several applications of varying complexity are considered to illustrate the findings of this paper.

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Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

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This work develops methods to account for shoot structure in models of coniferous canopy radiative transfer. Shoot structure, as it varies along the light gradient inside canopy, affects the efficiency of light interception per unit needle area, foliage biomass, or foliage nitrogen. The clumping of needles in the shoot volume also causes a notable amount of multiple scattering of light within coniferous shoots. The effect of shoot structure on light interception is treated in the context of canopy level photosynthesis and resource use models, and the phenomenon of within-shoot multiple scattering in the context of physical canopy reflectance models for remote sensing purposes. Light interception. A method for estimating the amount of PAR (Photosynthetically Active Radiation) intercepted by a conifer shoot is presented. The method combines modelling of the directional distribution of radiation above canopy, fish-eye photographs taken at shoot locations to measure canopy gap fraction, and geometrical measurements of shoot orientation and structure. Data on light availability, shoot and needle structure and nitrogen content has been collected from canopies of Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Shoot structure acclimated to light gradient inside canopy so that more shaded shoots have better light interception efficiency. Light interception efficiency of shoots varied about two-fold per needle area, about four-fold per needle dry mass, and about five-fold per nitrogen content. Comparison of fertilized and control stands of Norway spruce indicated that light interception efficiency is not greatly affected by fertilization. Light scattering. Structure of coniferous shoots gives rise to multiple scattering of light between the needles of the shoot. Using geometric models of shoots, multiple scattering was studied by photon tracing simulations. Based on simulation results, the dependence of the scattering coefficient of shoot from the scattering coefficient of needles is shown to follow a simple one-parameter model. The single parameter, termed the recollision probability, describes the level of clumping of the needles in the shoot, is wavelength independent, and can be connected to previously used clumping indices. By using the recollision probability to correct for the within-shoot multiple scattering, canopy radiative transfer models which have used leaves as basic elements can use shoots as basic elements, and thus be applied for coniferous forests. Preliminary testing of this approach seems to explain, at least partially, why coniferous forests appear darker than broadleaved forests in satellite data.

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The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.