A note on estimating market–based minimum capital risk requirements: a multivariate GARCH approach

Internal risk management models of the kind popularized by J. P. Morgan are now used widely by the world’s most sophisticated financial institutions as a means of measuring risk. Using the returns on three of the most popular futures contracts on the London International Financial Futures Exchange, in this paper we investigate the possibility of using multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a method for the estimation of the value at risk of a portfolio based on a multivariate GARCH model. We find that the consideration of the correlation between the contracts can lead to more accurate, and therefore more appropriate, MCRRs compared with the values obtained from a univariate approach to the problem.

Determination of the degradation kinetics of anthocyanins in a model juice system using isothermal and non-isothermal methods

The effect of temperature on the degradation of blackcurrant anthocyanins in a model juice system was determined over a temperature range of 4–140 °C. The thermal degradation of anthocyanins followed pseudo first-order kinetics. From 4–100 °C an isothermal method was used to determine the kinetic parameters. In order to mimic the temperature profile in retort systems, a non-isothermal method was applied to determine the kinetic parameters in the model juice over the temperature range 110–140 °C. The results from both isothermal and non-isothermal methods fit well together, indicating that the non-isothermal procedure is a reliable mathematical method to determine the kinetics of anthocyanin degradation. The reaction rate constant (k) increased from 0.16 (±0.01) × 10−3 to 9.954 (±0.004) h−1 at 4 and 140 °C, respectively. The temperature dependence of the rate of anthocyanin degradation was modelled by an extension of the Arrhenius equation, which showed a linear increase in the activation energy with temperature.

Images of the multinational firm

A compilation of perspectives from leading authors from international business studies and organisation studies, including John Dunning, Eleanor Westney, John Cantwell, Richard Whitely and Alan Rugman.

Ballet-Granite

Live Performance, Szuper Gallery + Curtain Razors Dur: 50 mins NTSC HD 2011 Direction/Conception - Susanne Clausen, Pavlo Kerestey, Michele Sereda Performance Installation - Susanne Clausen, Pavlo Kerestey Performers - Jason Cawood, Susanne Clausen, Blair Fornwald, Morgan Garneau, John Hampton, Pavlo Kerestey, Michele Sereda Cave Video - Susanne Clausen and Pavlo Kerestey Sound scape - Szuper Gallery Voice - Michele Sereda Ballet Band - Billy Hughes, Trent Mailander and Otis Young Music - Dance of the Spirits - Danilo Villalta Technical Direction - Kenneth Young Stage Management - Paul Crepeau Sound Support - Jeff Morton Structural Design Consultant - James Phillips and Caragana Production Design Inc Set Assistants - Rebbeca Donison and Shelby Lowe Headress - Alla Sidorenko Costume consultation - Dean Renwick Documentation, Still - Carey Shaw, Szuper Gallery Documentation, Moving - Gabriel Yahyahkeekoot Administration + PR - Carey Shaw and the Mackenzie Art Gallery Poster Design - Rio Saxon Design Produced by Curtain Razors and Szuper Gallery in collaboration with the Mackenzie Art Gallery with the support of the Canada Council for the Arts, the Saskatchewan Arts Board and the City of Regina Arts Advisory Committee.

Supranutritional selenium induces alterations in molecular targets related to energy metabolism in skeletal muscle and visceral adipose tissue of pigs

While selenium (Se) is an essential micronutrient for humans, epidemiological studies have raised concern that supranutritional Se intake may increase the risk to develop Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to determine the impact of Se at a dose and source frequently ingested by humans on markers of insulin sensitivity and signalling. Male pigs were fed either a Se-adequate (0.17 mg Se/kg) or a Se-supranutritional (0.50 mg Se/kg; high-Se) diet. After 16 weeks of intervention, fasting plasma insulin and cholesterol levels were non-significantly increased in the high-Se pigs, whereas fasting glucose concentrations did not differ between the two groups. In skeletal muscle of high-Se pigs, glutathione peroxidase activity was increased, gene expression of forkhead box O1 transcription factor and peroxisomal proliferator-activated receptor- coactivator 1 were increased and gene expression of the glycolytic enzyme pyruvate kinase was decreased. In visceral adipose tissue of high-Se pigs, mRNA levels of sterol regulatory element-binding transcription factor 1 were increased, and the phosphorylation of Akt, AMP-activated kinase and mitogen-activated protein kinases was affected. In conclusion, dietary Se oversupply may affect expression and activity of proteins involved in energy metabolism in major insulin target tissues, though this is probably not sufficient to induce diabetes.

Children with Special Educational Needs as film makers: Using digital video to support Understandings of Narrative

The literature has identified issues around transitions among phases for all pupils (Cocklin, 1999) including pupils with special educational needs (SEN) (Morgan 1999, Maras and Aveling 2006). These issues include pupils’ uncertainties and worries about building size and spatial orientation, exposure to a range of teaching styles, relationships with peers and older pupils as well as parents’ difficulties in establishing effective communications with prospective secondary schools. Research has also identified that interventions to facilitate these educational transitions should consider managerial support, social and personal familiarisation with the new setting as well as personalised learning strategies (BECTA 2004). However, the role that digital technologies can play in supporting these strategies or facilitating the role of the professionals such as SENCos and heads of departments involved in supporting effective transitions for pupils with SEN has not been widely discussed. Uses of ICT include passing references of student-produced media presentations (Higgins 1993) and use of photographs of activities attached to a timetable to support familiarisation with the secondary curriculum for pupils with autism (Cumine et al. 1998).

Describing Earth system simulations with the Metafor CIM

The Metafor project has developed a common information model (CIM) using the ISO19100 series for- malism to describe numerical experiments carried out by the Earth system modelling community, the models they use, and the simulations that result. Here we describe the mechanism by which the CIM was developed, and its key properties. We introduce the conceptual and application ver- sions and the controlled vocabularies developed in the con- text of supporting the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We describe how the CIM has been used in experiments to describe model coupling properties and de- scribe the near term expected evolution of the CIM.

The maximum rate of mammal evolution

How fast can a mammal evolve from the size of a mouse to the size of an elephant? Achieving such a large transformation calls for major biological reorganization. Thus, the speed at which this occurs has important implications for extensive faunal changes, including adaptive radiations and recovery from mass extinctions. To quantify the pace of large-scale evolution we developed a metric, clade maximum rate, which represents the maximum evolutionary rate of a trait within a clade. We applied this metric to body mass evolution in mammals over the last 70 million years, during which multiple large evolutionary transitions occurred in oceans and on continents and islands. Our computations suggest that it took a minimum of 1.6, 5.1, and 10 million generations for terrestrial mammal mass to increase 100-, and 1,000-, and 5,000- fold, respectively. Values for whales were down to half the length (i.e., 1.1, 3, and 5 million generations), perhaps due to the reduced mechanical constraints of living in an aquatic environment. When differences in generation time are considered, we find an exponential increase in maximum mammal body mass during the 35 million years following the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event. Our results also indicate a basic asymmetry in macroevolution: very large decreases (such as extreme insular dwarfism) can happen at more than 10 times the rate of increases. Our findings allow more rigorous comparisons of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Keywords: haldanes, biological time, scaling, pedomorphosis

The combined effects of porous asphalt surfacing and barriers on traffic noise

There is considerable interest in the use of porous asphalt (PA) surfacing on highways since physical and subjective assessments of noise have indicated a significant advantage over conventional non-porous surfaces such as hot rolled asphalt (HRA) used widely for motorway surfacing in the UK. However, it was not known whether the benefit of the PA surface was affected by the presence of roadside barriers. Noise predictions have been made using the Boundary Element Method (BEM) approach to determine the extent to which the noise reducing benefits of PA could be added to the screening effects of noise barriers in order to obtain the overall reduction in noise levels

Influence of shape and absorbing surface: a numerical study of railway noise barriers

Results are presented of a study of a performance of various track-side railway noise barriers, determined by using a two- dimensional numerical boundary element model. The basic model uses monopole sources and has been adapted to allow the sources to exhibit dipole-type radiation characteristics. A comparison of boundary element predictions of the performance of simple barriers and vehicle shapes is made with results obtained by using the standard U.K. prediction method. The results obtained from the numerical model indicate that modifying the source to exhibit dipole characteristics becomes more significant as the height of the barrier increases, and suggest that for any particular shape, absorbent barriers provide much better screening efficiency than the rigid equivalent. The cross-section of the rolling stock significantly affects the performance of rigid barriers. If the position of the upper edge is fixed, the results suggest that simple absorptive barriers provide more effective screening than tilted barriers. The addition of multiple edges to a barrier provides additional insertion loss without any increase in barrier height.

Can nutrition be promoted through agriculture-led food price policies? A systematic review

Abstract Objective: To systematically review the available evidence on whether national or international agricultural policies that directly affect the price of food influence the prevalence rates of undernutrition or nutrition-related chronic disease in children and adults. Design: Systematic review. Setting: Global. Search strategy: We systematically searched five databases for published literature (MEDLINE, EconLit, Agricola, AgEcon Search, Scopus) and systematically browsed other databases and relevant organisational websites for unpublished literature. Reference lists of included publications were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. We included studies that evaluated or simulated the effects of national or international food-price-related agricultural policies on nutrition outcomes reporting data collected after 1990 and published in English. Primary and secondary outcomes: Prevalence rates of undernutrition (measured with anthropometry or clinical deficiencies) and overnutrition (obesity and nutrition-related chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and diabetes). Results: We identified a total of four relevant reports; two ex post evaluations and two ex ante simulations. A study from India reported on the undernutrition rates in children, and the other three studies from Egypt, the Netherlands and the USA reported on the nutrition related chronic disease outcomes in adults. Two of the studies assessed the impact of policies that subsidised the price of agricultural outputs and two focused on public food distribution policies. The limited evidence base provided some support for the notion that agricultural policies that change the prices of foods at a national level can have an effect on population-level nutrition and health outcomes. Conclusions: A systematic review of the available literature suggests that there is a paucity of robust direct evidence on the impact of agricultural price policies on nutrition and health.

Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m−2 yr−1). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr−1 for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration.

Beyond urban legends : an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions about urban ecosystems. The findings suggest a broader range of structural and functional relationships than is often assumed for urban ecological systems. We address the relationships between social status and awareness of environmental problems, and between race and environmental hazard. We present patterns of species diversity, riparian function, and stream nitrate loading. In addition, we probe the suitability of land-use models, the diversity of soils, and the potential for urban carbon sequestration. Finally, we illustrate lags between social patterns and vegetation, the biogeochemistry of lawns, ecosystem nutrient retention, and social-biophysical feedbacks. These results suggest a framework for a theory of urban ecosystems.

Prediction of Staphylococcus aureus antimicrobial resistance by whole-genome sequencing

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) could potentially provide a single platform for extracting all the information required to predict an organism’s phenotype. However, its ability to provide accurate predictions has not yet been demonstrated in large independent studies of specific organisms. In this study, we aimed to develop a genotypic prediction method for antimicrobial susceptibilities. The whole genomes of 501 unrelated Staphylococcus aureus isolates were sequenced, and the assembled genomes were interrogated using BLASTn for a panel of known resistance determinants (chromosomal mutations and genes carried on plasmids). Results were compared with phenotypic susceptibility testing for 12 commonly used antimicrobial agents (penicillin, methicillin, erythromycin, clindamycin, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, vancomycin, trimethoprim, gentamicin, fusidic acid, rifampin, and mupirocin) performed by the routine clinical laboratory. We investigated discrepancies by repeat susceptibility testing and manual inspection of the sequences and used this information to optimize the resistance determinant panel and BLASTn algorithm. We then tested performance of the optimized tool in an independent validation set of 491 unrelated isolates, with phenotypic results obtained in duplicate by automated broth dilution (BD Phoenix) and disc diffusion. In the validation set, the overall sensitivity and specificity of the genomic prediction method were 0.97 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.95 to 0.98) and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.99 to 1), respectively, compared to standard susceptibility testing methods. The very major error rate was 0.5%, and the major error rate was 0.7%. WGS was as sensitive and specific as routine antimicrobial susceptibility testing methods. WGS is a promising alternative to culture methods for resistance prediction in S. aureus and ultimately other major bacterial pathogens.