Constraining complex aquifer geometry with geophysics (2-D ERT and MRS measurements) for stochastic modelling of groundwater flow

Stochastic modelling is a useful way of simulating complex hard-rock aquifers as hydrological properties (permeability, porosity etc.) can be described using random variables with known statistics. However, very few studies have assessed the influence of topological uncertainty (i.e. the variability of thickness of conductive zones in the aquifer), probably because it is not easy to retrieve accurate statistics of the aquifer geometry, especially in hard rock context. In this paper, we assessed the potential of using geophysical surveys to describe the geometry of a hard rock-aquifer in a stochastic modelling framework. The study site was a small experimental watershed in South India, where the aquifer consisted of a clayey to loamy-sandy zone (regolith) underlain by a conductive fissured rock layer (protolith) and the unweathered gneiss (bedrock) at the bottom. The spatial variability of the thickness of the regolith and fissured layers was estimated by electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles, which were performed along a few cross sections in the watershed. For stochastic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, the generated random layer thickness was made conditional to the available data from the geophysics. In order to simulate steady state flow in the irregular domain with variable geometry, we used an isoparametric finite element method to discretize the flow equation over an unstructured grid with irregular hexahedral elements. The results indicated that the spatial variability of the layer thickness had a significant effect on reducing the simulated effective steady seepage flux and that using the conditional simulations reduced the uncertainty of the simulated seepage flux. As a conclusion, combining information on the aquifer geometry obtained from geophysical surveys with stochastic modelling is a promising methodology to improve the simulation of groundwater flow in complex hard-rock aquifers. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solid-solid collapse transition in a two dimensional model molecular system

Solid-solid collapse transition in open framework structures is ubiquitous in nature. The real difficulty in understanding detailed microscopic aspects of such transitions in molecular systems arises from the interplay between different energy and length scales involved in molecular systems, often mediated through a solvent. In this work we employ Monte-Carlo simulation to study the collapse transition in a model molecular system interacting via both isotropic as well as anisotropic interactions having different length and energy scales. The model we use is known as Mercedes-Benz (MB), which, for a specific set of parameters, sustains two solid phases: honeycomb and oblique. In order to study the temperature induced collapse transition, we start with a metastable honeycomb solid and induce transition by increasing temperature. High density oblique solid so formed has two characteristic length scales corresponding to isotropic and anisotropic parts of interaction potential. Contrary to the common belief and classical nucleation theory, interestingly, we find linear strip-like nucleating clusters having significantly different order and average coordination number than the bulk stable phase. In the early stage of growth, the cluster grows as a linear strip, followed by branched and ring-like strips. The geometry of growing cluster is a consequence of the delicate balance between two types of interactions, which enables the dominance of stabilizing energy over destabilizing surface energy. The nucleus of stable oblique phase is wetted by intermediate order particles, which minimizes the surface free energy. In the case of pressure induced transition at low temperature the collapsed state is a disordered solid. The disordered solid phase has diverse local quasi-stable structures along with oblique-solid like domains. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

Formulation of a mathematical approach to regional frequency analysis

Estimation of design quantiles of hydrometeorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on index-flood approach and L-moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real-world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach (PA) in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the PA outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.