Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Bridging the Accountability Gap: Rights for New Entities in the Information Society?

Technological developments in the information society bring new challenges, both to the applicability and to the enforceability of the law. One major challenge is posed by new entities such as pseudonyms, avatars, and software agents that operate at an increasing distance from the physical persons "behind" them (the "principal"). In case of accidents or misbehavior, current laws require that the physical or legal principal behind the entity be found so that she can be held to account. This may be problematic if the linkability of the principal and the operating entity is questionable. In light of the ongoing developments in electronic agents, there is sufficient reason to conduct a review of the literature in order to more closely examine arguments for and against legal personhood for some nonhuman acting entities. This article also includes a discussion of alternative approaches to solving the "accountability gap."

Rôle de l'imagerie dans le diagnostic et le suivi de la polyarthrite rhumatoïde [Role of imaging in the diagnosis and follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis].

Cross-sectional imaging techniques such as magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound are becoming essential tools not only for making an early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis, but also to help clarify the prognosis of the disease and better assess the response to various therapies. This article summarises the recommendations established in 2013 by the European League Against Rheumatism on the role of imaging in the diagnosis and follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis, while adding comments and emphasising on our Swiss experience with the use of ultrasound.

Self-Expanding Versus Balloon-Expandable Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction: Results From the APPOSITION II Study: Self-Expanding Stents in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate whether self-expanding stents are more effective than balloon-expandable stents for reducing stent malapposition at 3 days after implantation in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention. BACKGROUND: Acute myocardial infarction is associated with vasoconstriction and large thrombus burden. Resolution of vasoconstriction and thrombus load during the first hours to days after primary percutaneous coronary intervention may lead to stent undersizing and malapposition, which may subsequently lead to stent thrombosis or restenosis. In addition, aggressive stent deployment may cause distal embolization. METHODS: Eighty patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention were randomized to receive a self-expanding stent (STENTYS, STENTYS SA, Paris, France) (n = 43) or a balloon-expandable stent (VISION, Abbott Vascular, Santa Clara, California; or Driver, Medtronic, Minneapolis, Minnesota) (n = 37) at 9 European centers. The primary endpoint was the proportion of stent strut malapposition at 3 days after implantation measured by optical coherence tomography. Secondary endpoints included major adverse cardiac events (cardiac death, recurrent myocardial infarction, emergent bypass surgery, or clinically driven target lesion revascularization). RESULTS: At 3 days after implantation, on a per-strut basis, a lower rate of malapposed stent struts was observed by optical coherence tomography in the self-expanding stent group than in the balloon-expandable group (0.58% vs. 5.46%, p < 0.001). On a per-patient basis, none of the patients in the self-expanding stent group versus 28% in the balloon-expandable group presented ≥5% malapposed struts (p < 0.001). At 6 months, major adverse cardiac events were 2.3% versus 0% in the self-expanding and balloon-expandable groups, respectively (p = NS). CONCLUSIONS: Strut malapposition at 3 days is significantly lower in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients allocated to self-expanding stents when than in those allocated to balloon-expandable stents. The impact of this difference on clinical outcome and the risk of late stent thrombosis need to be evaluated further. (Randomized Comparison Between the STENTYS Self-expanding Coronary Stent and a Balloon-expandable Stent in Acute Myocardial Infarction [APPOSITION II]; NCT01008085).

Analyse de l'activité de match chez l'arbitre de football par accéléromètre et critique des tests de sélection FIFA

Introduction : Depuis 2005, le « Test FIFA » est utilisé chez les arbitres de football, comme critère de sélection pour monter dans les échelons de l'arbitrage et chaque arbitre base son entraînement dans cet objectif. Ce test a été développé grâce aux nombreux travaux scientifiques, ayant utilisé l'analyse vidéo, afin de quantifier les activités de match des arbitres et analyser leur performance en cours de match. Objectifs : Le but de ce travail a été d'évaluer la performance de l'arbitre, lors d'un match de football, au moyen d'un accéléromètre en raison de sa facilité d'utilisation et en particulier d'évaluer si au cours du match, il existe une éventuelle diminution de la capacité de performance engendrée par la fatigue. Enfin, à la lumière des résultats, nous avons pu discuter du bien fondé du «test par intervalle proposé par la FIFA» comme moyen d'estimation de la capacité physique d'un arbitre. Méthode : Il s'agit d'une étude prospective basée sur une analyse descriptive. Les données ont été récoltées dans des stades de football suisses ≥1ère Ligue, du 01.12.2011 au 01.12.2012. Le groupe étudié était composé de 5 arbitres de football de sexe masculin, dont deux officiant en 1ère Ligue et faisant partie des talents de l'Association Cantonale Vaudoise de Football (ACVF) et trois en Super League et Challenge League. Les 5 arbitres ont été équipés d'un iPhone 3GS®, muni d'une application, capable d'enregistrer les déplacements sur le terrain (arrêt, marche et course). Le traitement des données a été effectué par un programme Matlab®, élaboré par le Laboratoire des Mesures d'Analyse du Mouvement (LMAM) de l'EPFL, tout comme l'application en question. Pour ce travail ont été considérées les phases et les fréquences d'arrêt, de marche et de course tout au long de l'évolution de la partie. Résultats : Durant les 90 minutes du match, la répartition se fait de la manière suivante : 13,74% du temps total où l'accéléromètre ne mesure aucune activité, 33,70% concernent une activité de course alors que le reste, 52,48% est de la marche. Avec l'avancement dans le match, il est constaté une augmentation des phases d'arrêt et une diminution du temps de course. Une intensité d'effort plus importante est observée lors des 15 premières minutes du match (environ  41,7% de course), alors qu'en fin de la partie, il y a une alternance de marche et de course avec des efforts de plus en plus brefs. La détermination de la médiane de durée des différents efforts a montré qu'un épisode de marche ou de course étaient de 5-6 secondes. De plus, les épisodes de marche ou de course étaient rarement >20 secondes. Discussion : Les résultats montrent que l'accéléromètre est un système de mesure facile d'utilisation, permettant un gain de temps dans l'analyse des données pour évaluer la performance sportive. Les principaux résultats de cette étude, ont mis en évidence une diminution de l'intensité des activités physiques de l'arbitre avec l'avancement du match, résultant soit de sa propre fatigue, soit de celle des joueurs dictant le rythme du jeu. Cette diminution se traduit par des déplacements de plus en plus brefs au fil du temps. La mesure de médiane du temps de course et de marche (5-6 sec) correspond à une activité aérobie pour la marche et anaérobie alactique pour la course. Par conséquent, le « test par intervalle » de la FIFA actuel ne nous semble pas adéquat en raison de sa filière énergétique de type anaérobique lactique. Conclusion : Cette étude pilote apporte un nouveau type d'instrumentation efficace et simple, jamais employé auparavant dans l'analyse des activités de match des arbitres de football. Il permet d'explorer des mouvements avec précision au fil du match et apporte un nouvel aspect sur la quantification de performance des arbitres non exploré jusqu'ici. Après analyse de l'ensemble des paramètres, il semble que le test FIFA ne soit pas adapté à la performance exigée par l'arbitrage.

Plaque characteristics and arterial remodeling in coronary and peripheral arterial systems.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined plaque characteristics among multiple arterial beds in vivo. The purpose of this study was to compare the plaque morphology and arterial remodeling between coronary and peripheral arteries using gray-scale and radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) at clinical presentation. METHODS AND RESULTS: IVUS imaging was performed in 68 patients with coronary and 93 with peripheral artery lesions (29 carotid, 50 renal, and 14 iliac arteries). Plaques were classified as fibroatheroma (VH-FA) (further subclassified as thin-capped [VH-TCFA] and thick-capped [VH-ThCFA]), fibrocalcific plaque (VH-FC) and pathological intimal thickening (VH-PIT). Plaque rupture (13% of coronary, 7% of carotid, 6% of renal, and 7% of iliac arteries; P = NS) and VH-TCFA (37% of coronary, 24% of carotid, 16% of renal, and 7% of iliac arteries; P = 0.02) were observed in all arteries. Compared with coronary arteries, VH-FA was less frequently observed in renal (P < 0.001) and iliac arteries (P < 0.006). Lesions with positive remodeling demonstrated more characteristics of VH-FA in coronary (84% vs. 25%, P < 0.001), carotid (72% vs. 20%, P = 0.001), and renal arteries (42% vs. 4%, P = 0.001) compared with those with intermediate/negative remodeling. There was positive relationship between remodeling index and percent necrotic area in all four arteries. CONCLUSIONS: Atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes were heterogeneous among four different arteries; renal and iliac arteries had more stable phenotypes compared with coronary artery. In contrast, the associations of remodeling pattern with plaque phenotype and composition were similar among the various arterial beds.

Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the Canton of Vaud (Switzerland): A population-based cohort study

Background and aims: Because of the changing epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 0131)), we set out to characterize the population-based prevalence of Crohn's Disease (CD) and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) in a defined population of Switzerland. Methods: Adult IBD patients were identified by a cross-matched review of histological, hospital and gastroenterologist files throughout a geographical defined population (Canton of Vaud). Demographic factors statistically significantly associated with prevalence were evaluated using a stepwise Poisson regression analysis. Results were compared to IBD prevalence rates in other population-based studies and time trends were performed, based on a systematic literature review. Results: Age and sex-adjusted prevalence rates were 205.7 IBD (100.7 CD and 105.0 UC) cases per 105 inhabitants. Among 1016 IBD patients (519 CD and 497 UC), females outnumbered mates in CD (p < 0.001), but mates were more represented in elderly UC patients (p = 0.008). Thus, being a mate was statistically associated with UC (Relative Risk (RR) 1.25; p = 0.013), whereas being a female was associated with CD (RR 1.27; p = 0.007). Living in an urban zone was associated with both CD and UC (RR 1.49; p < 0.001, 1.63; p < 0.001, respectively). From 1960 to 2005, increases in UC and CD prevalences of 2.4% (95%CI, 2.1%-2.8%; p < 0.001) and 3.6% (95%CI, 3.1%-4.1%; p < 0.001) per annum were found in industrialised countries.

Demographic Study of Footballers in Europe / Etude démographique des footballeurs en Europe

The Demographic Study of European Footballers is an annual publication destined for anyone who wishes to acquire a scientific understanding of the European football players' labour market. It presents the dynamics at work in 36 first division leagues in UEFA member countries. This edition covers our biggest ever survey comprising 528 clubs and 12,524 footballers. Statistical indicators relative to nine thematics (morphology, age, experience training, origin, etc.) allow the comparison of player profiles and squad compositions at league and club level. Through easily-understable regression analyses, the Study brings to light the principle differences between clubs and leagues according to economic and sporting level of championships. The final part presents the list of the most promising players under 23 years of age by league and position.

An Integrated Study of Pervious Concrete Mixture Design for Wearing Course Applications, July 2011

This report presents the results of the largest and most comprehensive study to date on portland cement pervious concrete (PCPC). It is designed to be widely accessible and easily applied by designers, producers, contractors, and owners. The project was designed to begin with pervious concrete best practices and then to address the unanswered questions in a systematic fashion to allow a successful overlay project. Consequently, the first portion of the integrated project involved a combination of fundamental material property investigations, test method development, and addressing constructability issues before actual construction could take place. The second portion of the project involved actual construction and long-term testing before reporting successes, failures, and lessons learned. The results of the studies conducted show that a pervious concrete overlay can be designed, constructed, operated, and maintained. A pervious concrete overlay has several inherent advantages, including reduced splash and spray and reduced hydroplaning potential, as well as being a very quiet pavement. The good performance of this overlay in a particularly harsh freeze-thaw climate, Minnesota, shows pervious concrete is durable and can be successfully used in freeze-thaw climates with truck traffic and heavy snow plowing.

Guide to Cement-Based Integrated Pavement Solutions, August 2011

This guide provides a clear, concise, and cohesive presentation of cement-bound materials options for 10 specific engineering pavement applications: new concrete pavements, concrete overlays, previous concrete, precast pavements, roller-compacted concrete, cement-treated base, full-depth reclamation with cement, cement-modified soils, recycled concrete aggregates, and repair and restoration. Each application is presented as a method for meeting specific design and construction objectives that today’s pavement practitioners must accomplish. The benefits, considerations, brief description, and summary of materials, design, and construction requirements, as well as a list of sustainable attributes, are provided for every solution. This guide is intended to be short, simple, and easy to understand. It was designed so that the most up-to-date and relevant information is easily extractable. It is not intended to be used as a design guide for any of the applications identified herein. Recommendations for additional information that can provide such details are given at the end of each solution discussion. The intended audience is practitioners, including engineers and managers who face decisions regarding what materials to specify in the pavement systems they design or manage. The audience also includes city and county engineers, along with the A/E firms that often represent them, and state DOT engineers at all levels who are seeking alternatives in this era of changing markets.

Organic Matter Fractions and Quality of the Surface Layer of a Constructed and Vegetated Soil After Coal Mining. I - Humic Substances and Chemical Characterization

After open coal mining, soils are “constructed”, which usually contain low levels and quality of organic matter (OM). Therefore, the use of plant species for revegetation and reclamation of degraded areas is essential. This study evaluated the distribution of carbon (C) in the chemical fractions as well as the chemical characteristics and humification degree of OM in a soil constructed after coal mining under cultivation of perennial grasses. The experiment was established in 2003 with the following treatments: Hemarthria altissima (T1), Paspalum notatum (T2), Cynodon dactilon (T3), Urochloa brizantha (T4), bare constructed soil (T5), and natural soil (T6). In 2009, soil samples were collected from the 0.00-0.03 m layer and the total organic carbon stock (TOC) and C stock in the chemical fractions: acid extract (CHCl), fulvic acid (CFA), humic acid (CHA), and humin (CHU) were determined. The humic acid (HA) fraction was characterized by infrared spectroscopy and the laser-induced fluorescence index (ILIF) of OM was also calculated. After six years, differences were only observed in the CHA stocks, which were highest in T1 (0.89 Mg ha-1) and T4 (1.06 Mg ha-1). The infrared spectra of HA in T1, T2 and T4 were similar to T6, with greater contribution of aliphatic organic compounds than in the other treatments. In this way, ILIF decreased in the sequence T5>T3>T4>T1>T2>T6, indicating higher OM humification in T3 and T5 and more labile OM in the other treatments. Consequently, the potential of OM quality recovery in the constructed soil was greatest in treatments T1 and T4.

Federal Highway Administration Finding of No Signification Impact, September 2011

Description of the Proposed Action The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) propose to improve a 3.9-mile segment of Iowa Highway 86 (IA 86) from Iowa Highway 9 (IA 9) to near the Minnesota border within Dickinson County, Iowa (the Project). The existing IA 86 has narrow travel lanes and shoulders, steep foreslopes, and poor vertical alignment. Environmental Assessment Availability The Environmental Assessment (EA) for the Project was signed on June 30, 2011, and distributed to selected federal, state, and local resource agencies on July 5, 2011, for review and comment. A Notice of Public Hearing and Environmental Assessment Availability was published in the legal section of the Estherville Daily News on July 5, 2011, and the Ocheyedan Press-Melvin News and Dickinson County News on July 6, 2011. Review and Comment Period A review and comment period was established for receipt of comments on the EA, with an expiration date of August 8, 2011. A public hearing for the Project was held at the Dickinson County Courthouse on July 21, 2011. The public hearing used a combined open forum and formal format. A transcript of this meeting has been prepared and is available upon request.

Road Safety Audit for the Intersection of US 59 and IA 9 in Osceola County, Iowa Final Report, March 2012

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) requested a road safety audit (RSA) of the US 59/IA 9 intersection in northwestern Iowa, just south of the Minnesota border, to assess intersection environmental issues and crash history and recommend appropriate mitigation to address the identified safety issues at the intersection. Although the number of crashes at the location has not been significantly higher than the statewide average for similar intersections, the severity of these crashes has been of concern. This RSA was unique in that it included intersection video observation and recorded traffic conflict data analysis, along with the daylight and nighttime field reviews. This report outlines the findings and recommendations of the RSA team for addressing the safety concerns at this intersection.