Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system

A global river routing scheme coupled to the ECMWF land surface model is implemented and tested within the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project II, to evaluate the feasibility of modelling global river runoff at a daily time scale. The exercise is designed to provide benchmark river runoff predictions needed to verify the land surface model. Ten years of daily runoff produced by the HTESSEL land surface scheme is input into the TRIP2 river routing scheme in order to generate daily river runoff. These are then compared to river runoff observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in order to evaluate the potential and the limitations. A notable source of inaccuracy is bias between observed and modelled discharges which is not primarily due to the modelling system but instead of to the forcing and quality of observations and seems uncorrelated to the river catchment size. A global sensitivity analysis and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis are applied to the global routing model. The ground water delay parameter is identified as being the most sensitive calibration parameter. Significant uncertainties are found in results, and those due to parameterisation of the routing model are quantified. The difficulty involved in parameterising global river discharge models is discussed. Detailed river runoff simulations are shown for the river Danube, which match well observed river runoff in upstream river transects. Results show that although there are errors in runoff predictions, model results are encouraging and certainly indicative of useful runoff predictions, particularly for the purpose of verifying the land surface scheme hydrologicly. Potential of this modelling system on future applications such as river runoff forecasting and climate impact studies is highlighted. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Evidence from Meteosat imagery of the interaction of sting jets with the boundary layer

Meteosat infra-red imagery for the Great Storm of October 1987 is analysed to show a series of very shallow arc-shaped and smaller chevron-shaped cloud features that were associated with damaging surface winds in the dry-slot region of this extra-tropical cyclone. Hypotheses are presented that attribute these low-level cloud features to boundary-layer convergence lines ahead of wind maxima associated with the downward transport of high momentum from overrunning, so-called sting-jet, flows originating in the storm's main cloud head. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society.

Mark Casson: the Entrepreneur at 30 -continued relevance?

Mark Casson's The Entrepreneur: An Economic Theory (1982) has become one of the most influential books in the field of entrepreneurship. For the first time, this article outlines its origins and summarizes its main themes. The article goes on to show how Casson's subsequent research has closely followed the research agenda he set for himself in The Entrepreneur and illustrates the continuing challenge his work presents to entrepreneurship scholars. The article is based on an interview the authors conducted with Mark Casson on the thirtieth anniversary of the book's publication. Copyright © 2014 Strategic Management Society.

Heterogeneous photocatalytic degradation of acid dyes in aqueous TiO2 suspensions: Kinetics and toxicity

This work assesses the photocatalytic (TiO2/UV) degradation of a simulated acid dye bath (Yellow 3, Red 51, Blue 74, and auxiliary chemicals). Color and phytotoxicity removal were monitored by spectrophotometry and lettuce (Lactuca sativa) seeds as the test organism, respectively. Mineralization was determined by DOC analyses. Photocatalytic, photolytic, and adsorption experiments were performed, showing that adsorption was negligible. After 240 minutes of irradiation, it was achieved 96% and 78% of color removal with photocatalysis and photolysis, respectively. 37% of mineralization occurred with photocatalysis only. The dye bath was rendered completely non-toxic after 60 minutes of photocatalytic treatment; the same result was only achieved with photolysis after 90 minutes. A kinetic model composed of two first-order in series reactions was used. The first photocatalytic decolorization rate constant was k(1) = 0.062 min(-1) and the second k(2) = 0.0043 min(-1), approximately two times greater than the photolytic ones.

Sociologin, hybriderna och den sociala verkligheten : exemplet kärnavfall

Sociology, hybrids and social reality: the case of nuclear waste The continuing technological transformation of nature means that sociology’s traditional vision of a sharp divide between nature and society is becoming ever harder to defend. Starting from Bruno Latour’s critique of modernity, and Nikolas Rose’s explorations of political power beyond the state, this article presents a framework for analysing the expanding wealth of hybrids of nature and society surrounding us today, and the problems of government they pose. These hybrids confront us with the need to rethink sociology’s conception of ‘the social’. With Latour’s help, the interplay of nature and society can be understood as subject to technical mediation, opening the way for studies of the varying arrangements through which different configurations of nature and society are produced. Rather than alternative social constructions of nature, what sociologists should be at pains to analyse and question are different programmes and strategies for bringing together natural and social forces in durable combinations. In the article, the geological disposal of nuclear waste serves as a useful example for exploring the fruitfulness of the analytical framework put forward. This complex undertaking constitutes just one component in a larger field of technoscientific endeavour that has irrevocably transformed nature while simultaneously re-making society. Addressing this case, we seek to reveal the promise of a sociology that does not bound ‘the social’ in advance, but rather makes the co-production of technology and society one of its most important objects of study.

Uma sequência didática a partir da temática terremotos com ênfase em CTS

Throughout its history the population of the region of Mato Grande, which includes the city of João Câmara, in Rio Grande do Norte, was subject to earthquakes. These events are caused by a geological fault, known as fault Samambaia. In the 1980s there was an intensification of this phenomenon culminating in an earthquake 5.1 on the Richter scale in the early hours of November 30, 1986, causing researchers from Brazil and other countries to shift to the region to conduct research in Seismology. During this period there was a strong interaction between scientists and local people. With the aim of studying how people experienced that moment that marked the history of the city of João Câmara, from interviews with some individuals who witnessed the incident, is that this research was developed. Taking as a theoretical approach to Science, Technology and Society (STS), aimed to thus carry the theme in a systematic way to the classroom, promoting ways to help teachers with the scientific training and guidance to students in case of occurrence of earthquakes

Argumentações discentes e docente envolvendo aspectos ambientais em sala de aula: uma análise

Este trabalho trata da interação entre professor e alunos mediante a utilização do texto paradidático intitulado Nosso Universo em aulas de Física, em uma sala de Educação de Jovens e Adultos. Neste artigo é analisado um episódio que articula Ciência, Tecnologia e Sociedade aos aspectos ambientais. Esse episódio aborda o problema do efeito estufa, do buraco na camada de ozônio e da escassez da água. Para a análise, foram elaboradas categorias referentes às argumentações discentes e docente. Os resultados envolvendo o tripé professor/aluno/texto apontam que tais interações propiciaram a motivação e a formação do aluno enquanto indivíduo crítico e reflexivo, em condições de argumentar e atuar criticamente em seu meio social.

Human colostral phagocytes eliminate enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli opsonized by colostrum supernatant

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of Medicines Among a Brazilian Elderly Sample: A Cross-sectional Study

Background: The use of multiple medicines is very frequent among the elderly, allowing them to perceive more often adverse side effects from drugs and present undesirable drug interactions.Methods: This article presents a cross-sectional survey about the use of medicines among 300 elderly Brazilians, equally divided into institutionalized and community-dwelling groups.Results: The average daily intake of medicines is 3.2 among institutionalized elderly, a higher (p < 0.001) number when compared with community-dwelling elderly, who takes an average of 1.8 medicines daily. The most commonly used medications are antihypertensives (58.0%), diuretics (23.0%), nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (22.7%), supplements (21.7%), antidiabetics (16.3%), and antiulcerants (14.0%). Antiulcerants, diuretics, supplements, and central nervous system drugs are more frequently used by institutionalized than by community-dwelling elderly.Conclusion: In this Brazilian elderly sample, the most widely used medicines were antihypertensives, diuretics, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and institutionalized used more medications than community-dwelling elderly. Copyright (C) 2011, Taiwan Society of Geriatric Emergency & Critical Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC. All rights reserved.

O pro-álcool e algumas relações CTS concebidas por alunos de 6ª série do ensino fundamental

A crescente degradação do meio ambiente e o reconhecimento, por parte da sociedade contemporânea, da existência de problemas considerados críticos, acentuadamente a questão energética, intensifica a preocupação em incorporar nas atividades de ensino aspectos da relação do ser humano com o ambiente. A necessidade de abordar, durante atividades de ensino de ciências, questões relacionadas com a dimensão valorativa e aspectos da relação entre ciência, tecnologia e sociedade passa a ser reconhecida tanto por educadores de maneira geral quanto por especialistas da área, de maneira particular. O movimento Ciência, Tecnologia e Sociedade (CTS) como um conjunto de propostas para o ensino de ciências é uma conseqüência concreta desta tendência. No caso do Brasil são poucas as pesquisas em ensino de ciências que exploram essa possibilidade e são poucas as experiências em termos de trabalhos em sala de aula que abordam esta questão. Este trabalho, realizado entre maio e novembro de 1996, sistematiza os dados coletados em uma classe de 6ª série do ensino fundamental que teve como tema de estudos o Projeto Pro-Álcool. Foi planejado e desenvolvido um conjunto de atividades, utilizando-se de um número bastante diversificado de procedimentos didáticos. Os resultados de pesquisa indicam que, um trabalho que ofereça aos alunos oportunidades de discussões e reflexões, a partir de procedimentos e material didático diversificado e rico em termos de solicitações e propostas aos alunos, pode promover a incorporação, em sala de aula, de diferentes dimensões relacionadas com a ciência, tecnologia, sociedade e ambiente.

Estimation of variances of the effects of incomplete diallels using a matrix approach

A matrix approach is described for assessing the variance of effects in incomplete diallels designs. The method is illustrated by reference to simulated complete and incomplete diallels using different combinations of constraints, average degree of dominance and, for the incomplete diallel, number of hybrids. Our results showed that caution should be taken in working with incomplete diallels under conditions of overdominance because there were changes in the rank of the genotypes when the excluded hybrid had parents with a low frequency of the favorable allele (i.e. the allele which increases expression of a character). The expression described in this paper is a rapid and safe approach to estimate variances and covariances of the effects of contrasts of incomplete diallels. Copyright by the Brazilian Society of Genetics.

Genotoxic and antigenotoxic effects of organic extracts of mushroom Agaricus blazei Murrill on V79 cells

Agaricus blazei Murrill, popularly known as the sun mushroom, is a native mushroom in SP, Brazil, that has been widely used in the treatment of cancer and many other pathologies in different parts of the world. A water-soluble protein-polysaccharide complex (1 → 6)β-D-glucan has been isolated from its fruiting body that showed immune-modulation activity. From organic extracts, linoleic acid has been isolated and determined to be the main substance with antimutagenic activity. Using both the micronucleus (MN) and comet (single cell microgel electrophoresis) assays, this study determined the genotoxic and antigenotoxic potential of A. blazei (AB) obtained from commercial sources or the following strains: a) strains AB 97/29 (young and sporulated phases); b) a mixture taken from AB 96/07, AB 96/09 and AB 97/ 11 strains; and c) commercial mushrooms from Londrina, PR and Piedade, SP, designated as AB PR and AB SP, respectively. The extracts from these mushrooms were isolated in chloroform:methanol (3:1) and used in vitro at three different concentrations. V79 cells (Chinese hamster lung cells) were exposed to the extracts under pre-, simultaneous and post-treatment conditions, combined with methyl methanesulfonate (MMS). Under the circumstances of this study, these organic extracts did not show any genotoxic or mutagenic effects, but did protect cells against the induction of micronuclei by MMS. Copyright by the Brazilian Society of Genetics.

Age-age correlation for early selection of rubber tree genotypes in São Paulo State, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)