How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

The generalized index of maximum and minimum level and its application in decision making

[spa] El índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel es una técnica muy útil, especialmente para toma de decisiones, que usa la distancia de Hamming y el coeficiente de adecuación en el mismo problema. En este trabajo, se propone una generalización a través de utilizar medias generalizadas y cuasi aritméticas. A estos operadores de agregación, se les denominará el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel medio ponderado ordenado generalizado (GOWAIMAM) y cuasi aritmético (Quasi-OWAIMAM). Estos nuevos operadores generalizan una amplia gama de casos particulares como el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel generalizado (GIMAM), el OWAIMAM, y otros. También se desarrolla una aplicación en la toma de decisiones sobre selección de productos.

There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

After a steady decline in the early 20th century, several terrestrial carnivore species have recently recovered in Western Europe, either through reintroductions or natural recolonization. Because of the large space requirements of these species and potential conflicts with human activities, ensuring their recovery requires the implementation of conservation and management measures that address the environmental, landscape and social dimensions of the problem. Few examples exist of such integrated management. Taking the case of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Switzerland, we propose a multi-step approach that allows to (1) identify areas with potentially suitable habitat, (2) evaluate their connectivity, (3) verify the potentiality of the species recolonization from populations in neighbouring countries. We showed that even though suitable habitat is available for the species and the level of structural connectivity within Switzerland is satisfactory, the level of connectivity with neighbouring populations is crucial to prioritize strategies that favour the species recovery in the field. This research is the first example integrating habitat suitability and connectivity assessment at different scales with other factors in a multi-step assessment for species recovery.

Transient Ischemic Dilation (TID) ratio measurement during Rb-82 cardiac PET: Comparison between three different software packages.

Background: TIDratio indirectly reflects myocardial ischemia and is correlated with cardiacprognosis. We aimed at comparing the influence of three different softwarepackages for the assessment of TID using Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT. Methods: Intotal, data of 30 patients were used based on normal myocardial perfusion(SSS<3 and SRS<3) and stress myocardial blood flow 2mL/min/g)assessed by Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT. After reconstruction using 2D OSEM (2Iterations, 28 subsets), 3-D filtering (Butterworth, order=10, ωc=0.5), data were automatically processed, and then manually processed fordefining identical basal and apical limits on both stress and rest images.TIDratio were determined with Myometrix®, ECToolbox® and QGS®software packages. Comparisons used ANOVA, Student t-tests and Lin concordancetest (ρc). Results: All of the 90 processings were successfullyperformed. TID ratio were not statistically different between software packageswhen data were processed automatically (P=0.2) or manually (P=0.17). There was a slight, butsignificant relative overestimation of TID with automatic processing incomparison to manual processing using ECToolbox® (1.07 ± 0.13 vs 1.0± 0.13, P=0.001)and Myometrix® (1.07 ± 0.15 vs 1.01 ± 0.11, P=0.003) but not using QGS®(1.02 ±0.12 vs 1.05 ± 0.11, P=0.16). The best concordance was achieved between ECToolbox®and Myometrix® manual (ρc=0.67) processing.Conclusion: Using automatic or manual mode TID estimation was not significantlyinfluenced by software type. Using Myometrix® or ECToolbox®TID was significantly different between automatic and manual processing, butnot using QGS®. Software package should be account for when definingTID normal reference limits, as well as when used in multicenter studies. QGS®software seemed to be the most operator-independent software package, whileECToolbox® and Myometrix® produced the closest results.

Maximum mass of neutron stars

We determine the structure of neutron stars within a Brueckner-Hartree-Fock approach based on realistic nucleon-nucleon, nucleon-hyperon, and hyperon-hyperon interactions. Our results indicate rather low maximum masses below 1.4 solar masses. This feature is insensitive to the nucleonic part of the EOS due to a strong compensation mechanism caused by the appearance of hyperons and represents thus strong evidence for the presence of nonbaryonic "quark" matter in the interior of heavy stars.

Two nucleon induced Lambda decay and the proton to neutron induced ratio

We reanalyze the decay mode of Lambda hypernuclei induced by two nucleons modifying previous numerical results and the interpretation of the process. The repercussions of this channel in the ratio of neutron to proton induced Lambda decay is studied in detail in connection with the present experimental data. This leads to ratios that are in greater contradiction with usual one pion exchange models than those deduced before.

Competition between beta-subunits of cardiac L-type calcium channels

Cardiac L-type Ca (CaV1.2) channels are composed of a pore forming CaV1.2-α1 subunit and auxiliary β- and α2δ-subunits. β-subunits are important not only for surface expression of the channel pore but also for modulation of channel gating properties. Different β-subunits differentially modulate channel activity (Hullin et al., PLOSone, 2007) and thus L-type Ca2+ channel gating is altered when β-subunit expression pattern is changed. In human heart failure increased activity of single ventricular L-type Ca2+-channels is associated with an increased expression of β2-subunits. Interestingly, induction of β2-subunit over-expression in hearts of transgenic mice resembled this heart failure phenotype of hyperactive single L-type Ca2+-channel channels (Beetz et al., Cardiovasc Res. 2009). We hypothesised that competition of less stimulating β-subunits (e.g. β1) with β-subunits causing strong channel stimulation (e.g. β2) might be a means to treat dysfunctional L-type Ca2+-channel activity. To test this hypothesis, we performed whole-cell and single-channel measurements employing recombinant CaV1.2 channels expressed in HEK293 cells together with both β- and β1a2b-subunits. Whole-cell analysis revealed no differences of maximum L-type Ca2+-current densities [pA/pF] with coexpression of either β1a-subunits (-52±3.8), β2b-subunits (-61.5±6.6) or the mixtures of β- and β1a2b-subunits with the plasmid transfection ratio of 2:1 (-60.2±1.6) and 1:1 (-56.7±2.6) respectively. However, steady state inactivation kinetics differed between particular β-subunit and the relative amount of β-subunit presence in the mixtures (β1a1a-subunit (-41.1±1.0), β2b-subunits (-35.1±1.1), mixture 2:1 (-40.3±1.5), and mixture 1:1 (-38.4±2.0); [mV]; p<0.05, students t-test). Using a novel single-channel analysis, switching of gating between β1-like and β2-like modes was monitored on a minute time-scale when both β-subunits were co-expressed in the same cells, but the larger amount of β1a-subunits is required for the effective switching of gating. Our results indicate a model of mutually exclusive binding and effective competition between several β-subunits suggesting that hyperactive channel gating mediated e.g. by β2-subunits can be normalized by β1-subunits. Therefore, competitive replacement between different L-type Ca2+-channel β-subunits might serve as a novel therapeutic strategy for e.g. heart failure.

Straw decomposition of nitrogen-fertilized grasses intercropped with irrigated maize in an integrated crop-livestock system

The greatest limitation to the sustainability of no-till systems in Cerrado environments is the low quantity and rapid decomposition of straw left on the soil surface between fall and spring, due to water deficit and high temperatures. In the 2008/2009 growing season, in an area under center pivot irrigation in Selvíria, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, this study evaluated the lignin/total N ratio of grass dry matter , and N, P and K deposition on the soil surface and decomposition of straw of Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia, P. maximum cv. Mombaça, Brachiaria. brizantha cv. Marandu and B. ruziziensis, and the influence of N fertilization in winter/spring grown intercropped with maize, on a dystroferric Red Latosol (Oxisol). The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design in split-plots; the plots were represented by eight maize intercropping systems with grasses (sown together with maize or at the time of N side dressing). Subplots consisted of N rates (0, 200, 400 and 800 kg ha-1 year-1) sidedressed as urea (rates split in four applications at harvests in winter/spring), as well as evaluation of the straw decomposition time by the litter bag method (15, 30, 60, 90, 120, and 180 days after straw chopping). Nitrogen fertilization in winter/spring of P. maximum cv. Tanzânia, P. maximum cv. Mombaça, B. brizantha cv. Marandu and B. ruziziensis after intercropping with irrigated maize in an integrated crop-livestock system under no-tillage proved to be a technically feasible alternative to increase the input of straw and N, P and K left on the soil surface, required for the sustainability of the system, since the low lignin/N ratio of straw combined with high temperatures accelerated straw decomposition, reaching approximately 30 % of the initial amount, 90 days after straw chopping.

Environmental sex reversal, Trojan sex genes, and sex ratio adjustment: conditions and population consequences.

Abstract The great diversity of sex determination mechanisms in animals and plants ranges from genetic sex determination (GSD, e.g. mammals, birds, and most dioecious plants) to environmental sex determination (ESD, e.g. many reptiles) and includes a mixture of both, for example when an individual's genetically determined sex is environmentally reversed during ontogeny (ESR, environmental sex reversal, e.g. many fish and amphibia). ESD and ESR can lead to widely varying and unstable population sex ratios. Populations exposed to conditions such as endocrine-active substances or temperature shifts may decline over time due to skewed sex ratios, a scenario that may become increasingly relevant with greater anthropogenic interference on watercourses. Continuous exposure of populations to factors causing ESR could lead to the extinction of genetic sex factors and may render a population dependent on the environmental factors that induce the sex change. However, ESR also presents opportunities for population management, especially if the Y or W chromosome is not, or not severely, degenerated. This seems to be the case in many amphibians and fish. Population growth or decline in such species can potentially be controlled through the introduction of so-called Trojan sex genes carriers, individuals that possess sex chromosomes or genes opposite from what their phenotype predicts. Here, we review the conditions for ESR, its prevalence in natural populations, the resulting physiological and reproductive consequences, and how these may become instrumental for population management.

Recommendation of soil fertility levels for willow in the southern highlands of Santa Catarina

The species Salix x rubens is being grown on the Southern Plateau of Santa Catarina since the 1940s, but so far the soil fertility requirements of the crop have not been assessed. This study is the first to evaluate the production profile of willow plantations in this region, based on the modified method of Summer & Farina (1986), for the recommendation of fertility levels for willow. By this method, based on the law of Minimum and of Maximum for willow production for the conditions on the Southern Plateau of Santa Catarina, the following ranges could be recommended: pH: 5.0-6.5; P: 12-89 mg dm-3; Mg: 3.2-7.5 mg; Zn: 5.0-8.3 mg dm-3; Cu: 0.8-4.6 mg dm-3; and Mn; 20-164 mg dm-3. The Ca/Mg ratio should be between 1.2 and 2.9. For K and Ca only the lower (sufficiency level), but not the upper threshold (excess) was established, with respectively 114 mg dm-3 and 5.3 cmol c dm-3. It was also possible to determine the upper threshold for Al and the Al/Ca ratio, i.e., 1.7 cmol c dm-3 and 0.28, respectively. For maximum yields, the clay in the soil surface layer should be below 320 g dm-3.

Urea coated with oxidized charcoal reduces ammonia volatilization

Urea is the most consumed nitrogen fertilizer in the world. However, its agronomic and economic efficiency is reduced by the volatilization of NH3, which can reach 78 % of the applied nitrogen. The coating of urea granules with acidic compounds obtained by charcoal oxidation has the potential to reduce the volatilization, due to the acidic character, the high buffering capacity and CEC. This work aimed to evaluate the effect of HNO3-oxidized carbon on the control of NH3 volatilization. These compounds were obtained by oxidation of Eucalyptus grandis charcoal, produced at charring temperatures of 350 and 450 ºC, with 4.5 mol L-1 HNO3. The charcoal was oxidized by solubilization in acidic or alkaline medium, similar to the procedure of soil organic matter fractionation (CHox350 and CHox450). CHox was characterized by C, H, O, N contents and their respective atomic relations, by the ratio E4 (absorbance 465 nm) by E6 (absorbance 665 nm), and by active acidity and total acidity (CEC). The inhibitory effect of CHox on the urease activity of Canavalia ensiformis was assessed in vitro. The NH3 volatilization from urea was evaluated with and without coating of oxidized charcoal (U-CHox350 or U-CHox450) in a closed system with continuous air flow. The pH of both CHox was near 2.0, but the total acidity of CHox350 was higher, 72 % of which was attributed to carboxylic groups. The variation in the ionization constants of CHox350 was also greater. The low E4/E6 ratios characterize the high stability of the compounds in CHox. CHox did not inhibit the urease activity in vitro, although the maximum volatilization peak from U-CHox450 and U-CHox350 occurred 24 h after that observed for uncoated urea. The lowest volatilization rate was observed for U-CHox350 as well as a 43 % lower total amount of NH3 volatilized than from uncoated urea.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

hMMP9 as predictive factor for response and progression free survival in breast cancer patients treated with bevacizumab and pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD)

Background: The anti-angiogenic drug, bevacizumab (Bv), is currently used in the treatment of different malignancies including breast cancer. Many angiogenesis-associated molecules are found in the circulation of cancer patients. Until now, there are no prognostic or predictive factors identified in breast cancer patients treated with Bv. We present here the first results of the prospective monitoring of 6 angiogenesis-related molecules in the peripheral blood of breast cancer patients treated with a combination of Bv and PLD in the phase II trial, SAKK 24/06. Methods: Patients were treated with PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bv (10 mg/kg) on days 1 and 15 of each 4-week cycle for a maximum of 6 cycles, followed by Bv monotherapy maintenance (10 mg/m2 q2 weeks) until progression or severe toxicity. Plasma and serum samples were collected at baseline, after 2 months of therapy, then every 3 months and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&D Systems and Reliatech) were used to measure the expression levels of human vascular endothelial growth factor (hVEGF), placental growth factor (hPlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (hMMP9) and soluble VEGF receptors hsVEGFR-1, hsVEGFR-2 and hsVEGFR-3. The log-transformed data (to reduce the skewness) for each marker was analyzed using an analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to determine if there was a difference between the mean of the subgroups of interest (where α = 0.05). The untransformed data was also analyzed in the same manner as a "sensitivity" check. Results: 132 blood samples were collected in 41 out of 43 enrolled patients. Baseline levels of the molecules were compared to disease status according to RECIST. There was a statistically significant difference in the mean of the log-transformed levels of hMMP9 between responders [CR+PR] versus the mean in patients with PD (p-value=0.0004, log fold change=0.7536), and between patients with disease control [CR+PR+SD] and those with PD (p-value=<0.0001, log fold change=0.81559), with the log-transformed level of hMMP9 being higher for the responder group. The mean of the log-transformed levels of hsVEGFR-1 was statistically significantly different between patients with disease control [CR+PR+SD] and those with PD (p-value=0.0068, log fold change=-0.6089), where the log-transformed level of hsVEGFR-1 was lower for the responder group. The log-transformed level of hMMP9 at baseline was identified as a significant prognostic factor in terms of progression free survival (PFS): p-value=0.0417, hazard ratio (HR)=0.574 with a corresponding 95% confidence interval (0.336 - 0.979)). No strong correlation was shown either between the log-transformed levels of hsVEGF, hPlGF, hsVEGFR-2 or hsVEGFR-3 and clinical response or the occurrence of severe toxicity, or between the levels of the different molecules. Conclusions: Our results suggest that baseline plasma level of the matrix metalloproteinase, hMMP9, could predict tumor response and PFS in patients treated with a combination of Bv and PLD. These data justify further investigation in breast cancer patients treated with anti-angiogenic therapy.

Particulate soil organic carbon and stratification ratio increases in response to crop residue decomposition under no-till

In soils under no-tillage (NT), the continuous crop residue input to the surface layer leads to carbon (C) accumulation. This study evaluated a soil under NT in Ponta Grossa (State of Paraná, Brazil) for: 1) the decomposition of black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, 2) relation of the biomass decomposition effect with the soil organic carbon (SOC) content, the particulate organic carbon (POC) content, and the soil carbon stratification ratio (SR) of an Inceptisol. The assessments were based on seven samplings (t0 to t6) in a period of 160 days of three transects with six sampling points each. The oat dry biomass was 5.02 Mg ha-1 at t0, however, after 160 days, only 17.8 % of the initial dry biomass was left on the soil surface. The SOC in the 0-5 cm layer varied from 27.56 (t0) to 30.07 g dm-3 (t6). The SR increased from 1.33 to 1.43 in 160 days. There was also an increase in the POC pool in this period, from 8.1 to 10.7 Mg ha-1. The increase in SOC in the 0-5 cm layer in the 160 days was mainly due to the increase of POC derived from oat residue decomposition. The linear relationship between SOC and POC showed that 21 % of SOC was due to the more labile fraction. The results indicated that the continuous input of residues could be intensified to increase the C pool and sequestration in soils under NT.