The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability.

Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?

Recent analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the stratosphere and troposphere has suggested that predictability of the state of the tropospheric AO may be obtained from the state of the stratospheric AO. However, much of this research has been of a purely qualitative nature. We present a more thorough statistical analysis of a long AO amplitude dataset which seeks to establish the magnitude of such a link. A relationship between the AO in the lower stratosphere and on the 1000 hPa surface on a 10-45 day time-scale is revealed. The relationship accounts for 5% of the variance of the 1000 hPa time series at its peak value and is significant at the 5% level. Over a similar time-scale the 1000 hPa time series accounts for 1% of itself and is not significant at the 5% level. Further investigation of the relationship reveals that it is only present during the winter season and in particular during February and March. It is also demonstrated that using stratospheric AO amplitude data as a predictor in a simple statistical model results in a gain of skill of 5% over a troposphere-only statistical model. This gain in skill is not repeated if an unrelated time series is included as a predictor in the model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Potential energy functions for ground state surfaces of HCO and HNO

Analytical potential functions are reported for the ground state surfaces of HCO and HNO, the functions being derived from spectroscopic and ab initio data. Harmonized force fields have been deduced for the stable configurations of both molecules and vibration frequencies predicted for the metastable species COH and NOH.

Exploring the construction of social class in educational discourse: the rational order of the nation state versus global uncertainties

This article aims to create intellectual space in which issues of social inequality and education can be analyzed and discussed in relation to the multifaceted and multi-levelled complexities of the modern world. It is divided into three sections. Section One locates the concept of social class in the context of the modern nation state during the period after the Second World War. Focusing particularly on the impact of 'Fordism' on social organization and cultural relations, it revisits the articulation of social justice issues in the United Kingdom, and the structures put into place at the time to alleviate educational and social inequalities. Section Two problematizes the traditional concept of social class in relation to economic, technological and sociocultural changes that have taken place around the world since the mid-1980s. In particular, it charts some of the changes to the international labour market and global patterns of consumption, and their collective impact on the re-constitution of class boundaries in 'developed countries'. This is juxtaposed with some of the major social effects of neo-classical economic policies in recent years on the sociocultural base in developing countries. It discusses some of the ways these inequalities are reflected in education. Section Three explores tensions between the educational ideals of the 'knowledge economy' and the discursive range of social inequalities that are emerging within and beyond the nation state. Drawing on key motifs identified throughout, the article concludes with a reassessment of the concept of social class within the global cultural economy. This is discussed in relation to some of the major equity and human rights issues in education today.

In vitro studies on colonization resistance of the human gut microbiota to Candida albicans and the effects of tetracycline and Lactobacillus plantarum LPK

An anaerobic three-vessel continuous-flow culture system, which models the three major anatomical regions of the human colon, was used to study the persistence of Candida albicans in the presence of a faecal microbiota. During steady state conditions, overgrowth of C. albicans was prevented by commensal bacteria indigenous to the system. However antibiotics, such as tetracycline have the ability to disrupt the bacterial populations within the gut. Thus, colonization resistance can be compromised and overgrowth of undesirable microorganisms like C. albicans can then occur. In this study, growth of C. albicans was not observed in the presence of an established faecal microbiota. However, following the addition of tetracycline to the growth medium, significant growth of C. albicans occurred. A probiotic Lactobacillus plantarum LPK culture was added to the system to investigate whether this organism had any effects upon the Candida populations. Although C. albicans was not completely eradicated in the presence of this bacterium, cell counts were markedly reduced, indicating a compromised physiological function. This study shows that the normal gut flora can exert 'natural' resistance to C. albicans, however this may be diminished during antibiotic intake. The use of probiotics can help fortify natural resistance.

The climatology of the middle atmosphere in a vertically extended version of the Met Office's climate model. Part I: mean state

The climatology of a stratosphere-resolving version of the Met Office’s climate model is studied and validated against ECMWF reanalysis data. Ensemble integrations are carried out at two different horizontal resolutions. Along with a realistic climatology and annual cycle in zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, several physical effects are noted in the model. The time of final warming of the winter polar vortex is found to descend monotonically in the Southern Hemisphere, as would be expected for purely radiative forcing. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, the time of final warming is driven largely by dynamical effects in the lower stratosphere and radiative effects in the upper stratosphere, leading to the earliest transition to westward winds being seen in the midstratosphere. A realistic annual cycle in stratospheric water vapor concentrations—the tropical “tape recorder”—is captured. Tropical variability in the zonal mean zonal wind is found to be in better agreement with the reanalysis for the model run at higher horizontal resolution because the simulated quasi-biennial oscillation has a more realistic amplitude. Unexpectedly, variability in the extratropics becomes less realistic under increased resolution because of reduced resolved wave drag and increased orographic gravity wave drag. Overall, the differences in climatology between the simulations at high and moderate horizontal resolution are found to be small.

Photochromic dithienylethene derivatives containing Ru(II) or Os(II) metal units. Sensitized photocyclization from a triplet state

Efficient photocyclization from a low-lying triplet state is reported for a photochromic dithienylperfluorocyclopentene with Ru(bpy)(3) units attached via a phenylene linker to the thiophene rings. The ring-closure reaction in the nanosecond domain is sensitized by the metal complexes. Upon photoexcitation into the lowest Ru-to-bpy (MLCT)-M-1 state followed by intersystem crossing to emitting (MLCT)-M-3 states, photoreactive (IL)-I-3 states are populated by an efficient energy-transfer process. The involvement of these (IL)-I-3 states explains the quantum yield of the photocyclization, which is independent of the excitation wavelength but decreases strongly in the presence of dioxygen. This behavior differs substantially from the photocyclization of the nonemissive dithienylperfluorocyclopentene free ligand, which occurs from the lowest (IL)-I-1 state on a picosecond time scale and is insensitive to oxygen quenching. Cyclic voltammetric studies have also been performed to gain further insight into the energetics of the system. The very high photocyclization quantum yields, far above 0.5 in both cases, are ascribed to the strong steric repulsion between the bulky substituents on the dithienylperfluorocyclopentene bridge bearing the chelating bipyridine sites or the Ru(bpy)(3) moieties, forcing the system to adopt nearly exclusively the reactive antiparallel conformation. In contrast, replacement of both Ru(II) centers by Os(II) completely prevents the photocyclization reaction upon light excitation into the low-lying Os-to-bpy (MLCT)-M-1 state. The photoreaction can only be triggered by optical population of the higher lying (IL)-I-1 excited state of the central photochromic unit, but its yield is low due to efficient energy transfer to the luminescent lowest (MLCT)-M-3 state.

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

Advances in continuously profiling the thermodynamic state of the boundary layer: integration of measurements and methods

This paper describes advances in ground-based thermodynamic profiling of the lower troposphere through sensor synergy. The well-documented integrated profiling technique (IPT), which uses a microwave profiler, a cloud radar, and a ceilometer to simultaneously retrieve vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and liquid water content (LWC) of nonprecipitating clouds, is further developed toward an enhanced performance in the boundary layer and lower troposphere. For a more accurate temperature profile, this is accomplished by including an elevation scanning measurement modus of the microwave profiler. Height-dependent RMS accuracies of temperature (humidity) ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 K (0.5–0.8 g m−3) in the boundary layer are derived from retrieval simulations and confirmed experimentally with measurements at distinct heights taken during the 2005 International Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH) of the German Weather Service. Temperature inversions, especially of the lower boundary layer, are captured in a very satisfactory way by using the elevation scanning mode. To improve the quality of liquid water content measurements in clouds the authors incorporate a sophisticated target classification scheme developed within the European cloud observing network CloudNet. It allows the detailed discrimination between different types of backscatterers detected by cloud radar and ceilometer. Finally, to allow IPT application also to drizzling cases, an LWC profiling method is integrated. This technique classifies the detected hydrometeors into three different size classes using certain thresholds determined by radar reflectivity and/or ceilometer extinction profiles. By inclusion into IPT, the retrieved profiles are made consistent with the measurements of the microwave profiler and an LWC a priori profile. Results of IPT application to 13 days of the LAUNCH campaign are analyzed, and the importance of integrated profiling for model evaluation is underlined.