Analyzing diffuse scattering with supercomputers

Two new approaches to quantitatively analyze diffuse diffraction intensities from faulted layer stacking are reported. The parameters of a probability-based growth model are determined with two iterative global optimization methods: a genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results are compared with those from a third global optimization method, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm [Storn & Price (1997). J. Global Optim. 11, 341–359]. The algorithm efficiencies in the early and late stages of iteration are compared. The accuracy of the optimized parameters improves with increasing size of the simulated crystal volume. The wall clock time for computing quite large crystal volumes can be kept within reasonable limits by the parallel calculation of many crystals (clones) generated for each model parameter set on a super- or grid computer. The faulted layer stacking in single crystals of trigonal three-pointedstar- shaped tris(bicylco[2.1.1]hexeno)benzene molecules serves as an example for the numerical computations. Based on numerical values of seven model parameters (reference parameters), nearly noise-free reference intensities of 14 diffuse streaks were simulated from 1280 clones, each consisting of 96 000 layers (reference crystal). The parameters derived from the reference intensities with GA, PSO and DE were compared with the original reference parameters as a function of the simulated total crystal volume. The statistical distribution of structural motifs in the simulated crystals is in good agreement with that in the reference crystal. The results found with the growth model for layer stacking disorder are applicable to other disorder types and modeling techniques, Monte Carlo in particular.

The imaging and dosimetric capabilities of a CT/MR-suitable, anatomically adaptive, shielded intracavitary brachytherapy applicator for the treatment of cervical cancer

Introduction. Investigations into the shortcomings of current intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT) technology has lead us to design an Anatomically Adaptive Applicator (A3). The goal of this work was to design and characterize the imaging and dosimetric capabilities of this device. The A3 design incorporates a single shield that can both rotate and translate within the colpostat. We hypothesized that this feature, coupled with specific A3 component construction materials and imaging techniques, would facilitate artifact-free CT and MR image acquisition. In addition, by shaping the delivered dose distribution via the A3 movable shield, dose delivered to the rectum will be less compared to equivalent treatments utilizing current state-of-the-art ICBT applicators. ^ Method and materials. A method was developed to facilitate an artifact-free CT imaging protocol that used a "step-and-shoot" technique: pausing the scanner midway through the scan and moving the A 3 shield out of the path of the beam. The A3 CT imaging capabilities were demonstrated acquiring images of a phantom that positioned the A3 and FW applicators in a clinically-applicable geometry. Artifact-free MRI imaging was achieved by utilizing MRI-compatible ovoid components and pulse-sequences that minimize susceptibility artifacts. Artifacts were qualitatively compared, in a clinical setup. For the dosimetric study, Monte-Carlo (MC) models of the A3 and FW (shielded and unshielded) applicators were validated. These models were incorporated into a MC model of one cervical cancer patient ICBT insertion, using 192Ir (mHDR v2 source). The A3 shield's rotation and translation was adjusted for each dwell position to minimize dose to the rectum. Superposition of dose to rectum for all A3 dwell sources (4 per ovoid) was applied to obtain a comparison of equivalent FW treatments. Rectal dose-volume histograms (absolute and HDR/PDR biologically effective dose (BED)) and BED to 2 cc (BED2cc ) were determined for all applicators and compared. ^ Results. Using a "step-and-shoot" CT scanning method and MR compliant materials and optimized pulse-sequences, images of the A 3 were nearly artifact-free for both modalities. The A3 reduced BED2cc by 18.5% and 7.2% for a PDR treatment and 22.4% and 8.7% for a HDR treatment compared to treatments delivered using an uFW and sFW applicator, respectively. ^ Conclusions. The novel design of the A3 facilitated nearly artifact-free image quality for both CT and MR clinical imaging protocols. The design also facilitated a reduction in BED to the rectum compared to equivalent ICBT treatments delivered using current, state-of-the-art applicators. ^

A Bayesian approach to estimating the regression coefficients of a multinomial logit model

A Bayesian approach to estimation of the regression coefficients of a multinominal logit model with ordinal scale response categories is presented. A Monte Carlo method is used to construct the posterior distribution of the link function. The link function is treated as an arbitrary scalar function. Then the Gauss-Markov theorem is used to determine a function of the link which produces a random vector of coefficients. The posterior distribution of the random vector of coefficients is used to estimate the regression coefficients. The method described is referred to as a Bayesian generalized least square (BGLS) analysis. Two cases involving multinominal logit models are described. Case I involves a cumulative logit model and Case II involves a proportional-odds model. All inferences about the coefficients for both cases are described in terms of the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients. The results from the BGLS method are compared to maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients. The BGLS method avoids the nonlinear problems encountered when estimating the regression coefficients of a generalized linear model. The method is not complex or computationally intensive. The BGLS method offers several advantages over Bayesian approaches. ^

Logistic regression with Markov chains as covariates

The tobacco-specific nitrosamine 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) is an obvious carcinogen for lung cancer. Since CBMN (Cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus) has been found to be extremely sensitive to NNK-induced genetic damage, it is a potential important factor to predict the lung cancer risk. However, the association between lung cancer and NNK-induced genetic damage measured by CBMN assay has not been rigorously examined. ^ This research develops a methodology to model the chromosomal changes under NNK-induced genetic damage in a logistic regression framework in order to predict the occurrence of lung cancer. Since these chromosomal changes were usually not observed very long due to laboratory cost and time, a resampling technique was applied to generate the Markov chain of the normal and the damaged cell for each individual. A joint likelihood between the resampled Markov chains and the logistic regression model including transition probabilities of this chain as covariates was established. The Maximum likelihood estimation was applied to carry on the statistical test for comparison. The ability of this approach to increase discriminating power to predict lung cancer was compared to a baseline "non-genetic" model. ^ Our method offered an option to understand the association between the dynamic cell information and lung cancer. Our study indicated the extent of DNA damage/non-damage using the CBMN assay provides critical information that impacts public health studies of lung cancer risk. This novel statistical method could simultaneously estimate the process of DNA damage/non-damage and its relationship with lung cancer for each individual.^

Understanding the Influence of Photon Energy on 6MV Non Reference Dosimetry and CT Dosimetry using TLD and OSLD

Measurement of the absorbed dose from ionizing radiation in medical applications is an essential component to providing safe and reproducible patient care. There are a wide variety of tools available for measuring radiation dose; this work focuses on the characterization of two common, solid-state dosimeters in medical applications: thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) and optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLD). There were two main objectives to this work. The first objective was to evaluate the energy dependence of TLD and OSLD for non-reference measurement conditions in a radiotherapy environment. The second objective was to fully characterize the OSLD nanoDot in a CT environment, and to provide validated calibration procedures for CT dose measurement using OSLD. Current protocols for dose measurement using TLD and OSLD generally assume a constant photon energy spectrum within a nominal beam energy regardless of measurement location, tissue composition, or changes in beam parameters. Variations in the energy spectrum of therapeutic photon beams may impact the response of TLD and OSLD and could thereby result in an incorrect measure of dose unless these differences are accounted for. In this work, we used a Monte Carlo based model to simulate variations in the photon energy spectra of a Varian 6MV beam; then evaluated the impact of the perturbations in energy spectra on the response of both TLD and OSLD using Burlin Cavity Theory. Energy response correction factors were determined for a range of conditions and compared to measured correction factors with good agreement. When using OSLD for dose measurement in a diagnostic imaging environment, photon energy spectra are often referenced to a therapy-energy or orthovoltage photon beam – commonly 250kVp, Co-60, or even 6MV, where the spectra are substantially different. Appropriate calibration techniques specifically for the OSLD nanoDot in a CT environment have not been presented in the literature; furthermore the dependence of the energy response of the calibration energy has not been emphasized. The results of this work include detailed calibration procedures for CT dosimetry using OSLD, and a full characterization of this dosimetry system in a low-dose, low-energy setting.

Evaluation of PRESAGE® dosimeters for brachytherapy sources and the 3D dosimetry and characterization of the new AgX100 125I seed model

With continuous new improvements in brachytherapy source designs and techniques, method of 3D dosimetry for treatment dose verifications would better ensure accurate patient radiotherapy treatment. This study was aimed to first evaluate the 3D dose distributions of the low-dose rate (LDR) Amersham 6711 OncoseedTM using PRESAGE® dosimeters to establish PRESAGE® as a suitable brachytherapy dosimeter. The new AgX100 125I seed model (Theragenics Corporation) was then characterized using PRESAGE® following the TG-43 protocol. PRESAGE® dosimeters are solid, polyurethane-based, 3D dosimeters doped with radiochromic leuco dyes that produce a linear optical density response to radiation dose. For this project, the radiochromic response in PRESAGE® was captured using optical-CT scanning (632 nm) and the final 3D dose matrix was reconstructed using the MATLAB software. An Amersham 6711 seed with an air-kerma strength of approximately 9 U was used to irradiate two dosimeters to 2 Gy and 11 Gy at 1 cm to evaluate dose rates in the r=1 cm to r=5 cm region. The dosimetry parameters were compared to the values published in the updated AAPM Report No. 51 (TG-43U1). An AgX100 seed with an air-kerma strength of about 6 U was used to irradiate two dosimeters to 3.6 Gy and 12.5 Gy at 1 cm. The dosimetry parameters for the AgX100 were compared to the values measured from previous Monte-Carlo and experimental studies. In general, the measured dose rate constant, anisotropy function, and radial dose function for the Amersham 6711 showed agreements better than 5% compared to consensus values in the r=1 to r=3 cm region. The dose rates and radial dose functions measured for the AgX100 agreed with the MCNPX and TLD-measured values within 3% in the r=1 to r=3 cm region. The measured anisotropy function in PRESAGE® showed relative differences of up to 9% with the MCNPX calculated values. It was determined that post-irradiation optical density change over several days was non-linear in different dose regions, and therefore the dose values in the r=4 to r=5 cm regions had higher uncertainty due to this effect. This study demonstrated that within the radial distance of 3 cm, brachytherapy dosimetry in PRESAGE® can be accurate within 5% as long as irradiation times are within 48 hours.

Propagation of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Transmutation Calculations Using ACAB Code

The assessment of the accuracy of parameters related to the reactor core performance (e.g., ke) and f el cycle (e.g., isotopic evolution/transmutation) due to the uncertainties in the basic nuclear data (ND) is a critical issue. Different error propagation techniques (adjoint/forward sensitivity analysis procedures and/or Monte Carlo technique) can be used to address by computational simulation the systematic propagation of uncertainties on the final parameters. To perform this uncertainty assessment, the ENDF covariance les (variance/correlation in energy and cross- reactions-isotopes correlations) are required. In this paper, we assess the impact of ND uncertainties on the isotopic prediction for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) for a discharge burnup of 150 GWd/tHM. The complete set of uncertainty data for cross sections (EAF2007/UN, SCALE6.0/COVA-44G), radioactive decay and fission yield data (JEFF-3.1.1) are processed and used in ACAB code.

Efficient methodologies for system matrix modelling in iterative image reconstruction for rotating high-resolution PET

A fully 3D iterative image reconstruction algorithm has been developed for high-resolution PET cameras composed of pixelated scintillator crystal arrays and rotating planar detectors, based on the ordered subsets approach. The associated system matrix is precalculated with Monte Carlo methods that incorporate physical effects not included in analytical models, such as positron range effects and interaction of the incident gammas with the scintillator material. Custom Monte Carlo methodologies have been developed and optimized for modelling of system matrices for fast iterative image reconstruction adapted to specific scanner geometries, without redundant calculations. According to the methodology proposed here, only one-eighth of the voxels within two central transaxial slices need to be modelled in detail. The rest of the system matrix elements can be obtained with the aid of axial symmetries and redundancies, as well as in-plane symmetries within transaxial slices. Sparse matrix techniques for the non-zero system matrix elements are employed, allowing for fast execution of the image reconstruction process. This 3D image reconstruction scheme has been compared in terms of image quality to a 2D fast implementation of the OSEM algorithm combined with Fourier rebinning approaches. This work confirms the superiority of fully 3D OSEM in terms of spatial resolution, contrast recovery and noise reduction as compared to conventional 2D approaches based on rebinning schemes. At the same time it demonstrates that fully 3D methodologies can be efficiently applied to the image reconstruction problem for high-resolution rotational PET cameras by applying accurate pre-calculated system models and taking advantage of the system's symmetries.

Evaluación y análisis de la trazabilidad metrológica en redes para la verificación y calibración de instrumental GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)

Los estudios realizados hasta el momento para la determinación de la calidad de medida del instrumental geodésico han estado dirigidos, fundamentalmente, a las medidas angulares y de distancias. Sin embargo, en los últimos años se ha impuesto la tendencia generalizada de utilizar equipos GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) en el campo de las aplicaciones geomáticas sin que se haya establecido una metodología que permita obtener la corrección de calibración y su incertidumbre para estos equipos. La finalidad de esta Tesis es establecer los requisitos que debe satisfacer una red para ser considerada Red Patrón con trazabilidad metrológica, así como la metodología para la verificación y calibración de instrumental GNSS en redes patrón. Para ello, se ha diseñado y elaborado un procedimiento técnico de calibración de equipos GNSS en el que se han definido las contribuciones a la incertidumbre de medida. El procedimiento, que se ha aplicado en diferentes redes para distintos equipos, ha permitido obtener la incertidumbre expandida de dichos equipos siguiendo las recomendaciones de la Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement del Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology. Asimismo, se han determinado mediante técnicas de observación por satélite las coordenadas tridimensionales de las bases que conforman las redes consideradas en la investigación, y se han desarrollado simulaciones en función de diversos valores de las desviaciones típicas experimentales de los puntos fijos que se han utilizado en el ajuste mínimo cuadrático de los vectores o líneas base. Los resultados obtenidos han puesto de manifiesto la importancia que tiene el conocimiento de las desviaciones típicas experimentales en el cálculo de incertidumbres de las coordenadas tridimensionales de las bases. Basándose en estudios y observaciones de gran calidad técnica, llevados a cabo en estas redes con anterioridad, se ha realizado un exhaustivo análisis que ha permitido determinar las condiciones que debe satisfacer una red patrón. Además, se han diseñado procedimientos técnicos de calibración que permiten calcular la incertidumbre expandida de medida de los instrumentos geodésicos que proporcionan ángulos y distancias obtenidas por métodos electromagnéticos, ya que dichos instrumentos son los que van a permitir la diseminación de la trazabilidad metrológica a las redes patrón para la verificación y calibración de los equipos GNSS. De este modo, ha sido posible la determinación de las correcciones de calibración local de equipos GNSS de alta exactitud en las redes patrón. En esta Tesis se ha obtenido la incertidumbre de la corrección de calibración mediante dos metodologías diferentes; en la primera se ha aplicado la propagación de incertidumbres, mientras que en la segunda se ha aplicado el método de Monte Carlo de simulación de variables aleatorias. El análisis de los resultados obtenidos confirma la validez de ambas metodologías para la determinación de la incertidumbre de calibración de instrumental GNSS. ABSTRACT The studies carried out so far for the determination of the quality of measurement of geodetic instruments have been aimed, primarily, to measure angles and distances. However, in recent years it has been accepted to use GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) equipment in the field of Geomatic applications, for data capture, without establishing a methodology that allows obtaining the calibration correction and its uncertainty. The purpose of this Thesis is to establish the requirements that a network must meet to be considered a StandardNetwork with metrological traceability, as well as the methodology for the verification and calibration of GNSS instrumental in those standard networks. To do this, a technical calibration procedure has been designed, developed and defined for GNSS equipment determining the contributions to the uncertainty of measurement. The procedure, which has been applied in different networks for different equipment, has alloweddetermining the expanded uncertainty of such equipment following the recommendations of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement of the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology. In addition, the three-dimensional coordinates of the bases which constitute the networks considered in the investigationhave been determined by satellite-based techniques. There have been several developed simulations based on different values of experimental standard deviations of the fixed points that have been used in the least squares vectors or base lines calculations. The results have shown the importance that the knowledge of experimental standard deviations has in the calculation of uncertainties of the three-dimensional coordinates of the bases. Based on high technical quality studies and observations carried out in these networks previously, it has been possible to make an exhaustive analysis that has allowed determining the requirements that a standard network must meet. In addition, technical calibration procedures have been developed to allow the uncertainty estimation of measurement carried outby geodetic instruments that provide angles and distances obtained by electromagnetic methods. These instruments provide the metrological traceability to standard networks used for verification and calibration of GNSS equipment. As a result, it has been possible the estimation of local calibration corrections for high accuracy GNSS equipment in standardnetworks. In this Thesis, the uncertainty of calibration correction has been calculated using two different methodologies: the first one by applying the law of propagation of uncertainty, while the second has applied the propagation of distributions using the Monte Carlo method. The analysis of the obtained results confirms the validity of both methodologies for estimating the calibration uncertainty of GNSS equipment.

Dominance intensity measure within fuzzy weight oriented MAUT: an application

We introduce a dominance intensity measuring method to derive a ranking of alternatives to deal with incomplete information in multi-criteria decision-making problems on the basis of multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) and fuzzy sets theory. We consider the situation where there is imprecision concerning decision-makers’ preferences, and imprecise weights are represented by trapezoidal fuzzy weights.The proposed method is based on the dominance values between pairs of alternatives. These values can be computed by linear programming, as an additive multi-attribute utility model is used to rate the alternatives. Dominance values are then transformed into dominance intensity measures, used to rank the alternatives under consideration. Distances between fuzzy numbers based on the generalization of the left and right fuzzy numbers are utilized to account for fuzzy weights. An example concerning the selection of intervention strategies to restore an aquatic ecosystem contaminated by radionuclides illustrates the approach. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been used to show that the proposed method performs well for different imprecision levels in terms of a hit ratio and a rank-order correlation measure.

Diseño basado en técnicas de fiabilidad del tratamiento de mejora del terreno mediante columnas de grava

El proyecto geotécnico de columnas de grava tiene todas las incertidumbres asociadas a un proyecto geotécnico y además hay que considerar las incertidumbres inherentes a la compleja interacción entre el terreno y la columna, la puesta en obra de los materiales y el producto final conseguido. Este hecho es común a otros tratamientos del terreno cuyo objetivo sea, en general, la mejora “profunda”. Como los métodos de fiabilidad (v.gr., FORM, SORM, Monte Carlo, Simulación Direccional) dan respuesta a la incertidumbre de forma mucho más consistente y racional que el coeficiente de seguridad tradicional, ha surgido un interés reciente en la aplicación de técnicas de fiabilidad a la ingeniería geotécnica. Si bien la aplicación concreta al proyecto de técnicas de mejora del terreno no es tan extensa. En esta Tesis se han aplicado las técnicas de fiabilidad a algunos aspectos del proyecto de columnas de grava (estimación de asientos, tiempos de consolidación y aumento de la capacidad portante) con el objetivo de efectuar un análisis racional del proceso de diseño, considerando los efectos que tienen la incertidumbre y la variabilidad en la seguridad del proyecto, es decir, en la probabilidad de fallo. Para alcanzar este objetivo se ha utilizado un método analítico avanzado debido a Castro y Sagaseta (2009), que mejora notablemente la predicción de las variables involucradas en el diseño del tratamiento y su evolución temporal (consolidación). Se ha estudiado el problema del asiento (valor y tiempo de consolidación) en el contexto de la incertidumbre, analizando dos modos de fallo: i) el primer modo representa la situación en la que es posible finalizar la consolidación primaria, parcial o totalmente, del terreno mejorado antes de la ejecución de la estructura final, bien sea por un precarga o porque la carga se pueda aplicar gradualmente sin afectar a la estructura o instalación; y ii) por otra parte, el segundo modo de fallo implica que el terreno mejorado se carga desde el instante inicial con la estructura definitiva o instalación y se comprueba que el asiento final (transcurrida la consolidación primaria) sea lo suficientemente pequeño para que pueda considerarse admisible. Para trabajar con valores realistas de los parámetros geotécnicos, los datos se han obtenido de un terreno real mejorado con columnas de grava, consiguiendo, de esta forma, un análisis de fiabilidad más riguroso. La conclusión más importante, obtenida del análisis de este caso particular, es la necesidad de precargar el terreno mejorado con columnas de grava para conseguir que el asiento ocurra de forma anticipada antes de la aplicación de la carga correspondiente a la estructura definitiva. De otra forma la probabilidad de fallo es muy alta, incluso cuando el margen de seguridad determinista pudiera ser suficiente. En lo que respecta a la capacidad portante de las columnas, existen un buen número de métodos de cálculo y de ensayos de carga (tanto de campo como de laboratorio) que dan predicciones dispares del valor de la capacidad última de las columnas de grava. En las mallas indefinidas de columnas, los resultados del análisis de fiabilidad han confirmado las consideraciones teóricas y experimentales existentes relativas a que no se produce fallo por estabilidad, obteniéndose una probabilidad de fallo prácticamente nula para este modo de fallo. Sin embargo, cuando se analiza, en el contexto de la incertidumbre, la capacidad portante de pequeños grupos de columnas bajo zapatas se ha obtenido, para un caso con unos parámetros geotécnicos típicos, que la probabilidad de fallo es bastante alta, por encima de los umbrales normalmente admitidos para Estados Límite Últimos. Por último, el trabajo de recopilación sobre los métodos de cálculo y de ensayos de carga sobre la columna aislada ha permitido generar una base de datos suficientemente amplia como para abordar una actualización bayesiana de los métodos de cálculo de la columna de grava aislada. El marco bayesiano de actualización ha resultado de utilidad en la mejora de las predicciones de la capacidad última de carga de la columna, permitiendo “actualizar” los parámetros del modelo de cálculo a medida que se dispongan de ensayos de carga adicionales para un proyecto específico. Constituye una herramienta valiosa para la toma de decisiones en condiciones de incertidumbre ya que permite comparar el coste de los ensayos adicionales con el coste de una posible rotura y , en consecuencia, decidir si es procedente efectuar dichos ensayos. The geotechnical design of stone columns has all the uncertainties associated with a geotechnical project and those inherent to the complex interaction between the soil and the column, the installation of the materials and the characteristics of the final (as built) column must be considered. This is common to other soil treatments aimed, in general, to “deep” soil improvement. Since reliability methods (eg, FORM, SORM, Monte Carlo, Directional Simulation) deals with uncertainty in a much more consistent and rational way than the traditional safety factor, recent interest has arisen in the application of reliability techniques to geotechnical engineering. But the specific application of these techniques to soil improvement projects is not as extensive. In this thesis reliability techniques have been applied to some aspects of stone columns design (estimated settlements, consolidation times and increased bearing capacity) to make a rational analysis of the design process, considering the effects of uncertainty and variability on the safety of the project, i.e., on the probability of failure. To achieve this goal an advanced analytical method due to Castro and Sagaseta (2009), that significantly improves the prediction of the variables involved in the design of treatment and its temporal evolution (consolidation), has been employed. This thesis studies the problem of stone column settlement (amount and speed) in the context of uncertainty, analyzing two failure modes: i) the first mode represents the situation in which it is possible to cause primary consolidation, partial or total, of the improved ground prior to implementation of the final structure, either by a pre-load or because the load can be applied gradually or programmed without affecting the structure or installation; and ii) on the other hand, the second mode implies that the improved ground is loaded from the initial instant with the final structure or installation, expecting that the final settlement (elapsed primary consolidation) is small enough to be allowable. To work with realistic values of geotechnical parameters, data were obtained from a real soil improved with stone columns, hence producing a more rigorous reliability analysis. The most important conclusion obtained from the analysis of this particular case is the need to preload the stone columns-improved soil to make the settlement to occur before the application of the load corresponding to the final structure. Otherwise the probability of failure is very high, even when the deterministic safety margin would be sufficient. With respect to the bearing capacity of the columns, there are numerous methods of calculation and load tests (both for the field and the laboratory) giving different predictions of the ultimate capacity of stone columns. For indefinite columns grids, the results of reliability analysis confirmed the existing theoretical and experimental considerations that no failure occurs due to the stability failure mode, therefore resulting in a negligible probability of failure. However, when analyzed in the context of uncertainty (for a case with typical geotechnical parameters), results show that the probability of failure due to the bearing capacity failure mode of a group of columns is quite high, above thresholds usually admitted for Ultimate Limit States. Finally, the review of calculation methods and load tests results for isolated columns, has generated a large enough database, that allowed a subsequent Bayesian updating of the methods for calculating the bearing capacity of isolated stone columns. The Bayesian updating framework has been useful to improve the predictions of the ultimate load capacity of the column, allowing to "update" the parameters of the calculation model as additional load tests become available for a specific project. Moreover, it is a valuable tool for decision making under uncertainty since it is possible to compare the cost of further testing to the cost of a possible failure and therefore to decide whether it is appropriate to perform such tests.

Cooperative localization in mobile networks using nonparametric variants of belief propagation

Of the many state-of-the-art methods for cooperative localization in wireless sensor networks (WSN), only very few adapt well to mobile networks. The main problems of the well-known algorithms, based on nonparametric belief propagation (NBP), are the high communication cost and inefficient sampling techniques. Moreover, they either do not use smoothing or just apply it o ine. Therefore, in this article, we propose more flexible and effcient variants of NBP for cooperative localization in mobile networks. In particular, we provide: i) an optional 1-lag smoothing done almost in real-time, ii) a novel low-cost communication protocol based on package approximation and censoring, iii) higher robustness of the standard mixture importance sampling (MIS) technique, and iv) a higher amount of information in the importance densities by using the population Monte Carlo (PMC) approach, or an auxiliary variable. Through extensive simulations, we confirmed that all the proposed techniques outperform the standard NBP method.

A new dominance intensity method to deal with ordinal information about a DM's preferences within MAVT

Dominance measuring methods are a new approach to deal with complex decision-making problems with imprecise information. These methods are based on the computation of pairwise dominance values and exploit the information in the dominance matrix in dirent ways to derive measures of dominance intensity and rank the alternatives under consideration. In this paper we propose a new dominance measuring method to deal with ordinal information about decision-maker preferences in both weights and component utilities. It takes advantage of the centroid of the polytope delimited by ordinal information and builds triangular fuzzy numbers whose distances to the crisp value 0 constitute the basis for the de?nition of a dominance intensity measure. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been used to compare the performance of this method with other existing approaches.

Contribuciones al análisis de problemas supercomplejos de toma de decisiones

Los fundamentos de la Teoría de la Decisión Bayesiana proporcionan un marco coherente en el que se pueden resolver los problemas de toma de decisiones. La creciente disponibilidad de ordenadores potentes está llevando a tratar problemas cada vez más complejos con numerosas fuentes de incertidumbre multidimensionales; varios objetivos conflictivos; preferencias, metas y creencias cambiantes en el tiempo y distintos grupos afectados por las decisiones. Estos factores, a su vez, exigen mejores herramientas de representación de problemas; imponen fuertes restricciones cognitivas sobre los decisores y conllevan difíciles problemas computacionales. Esta tesis tratará estos tres aspectos. En el Capítulo 1, proporcionamos una revisión crítica de los principales métodos gráficos de representación y resolución de problemas, concluyendo con algunas recomendaciones fundamentales y generalizaciones. Nuestro segundo comentario nos lleva a estudiar tales métodos cuando sólo disponemos de información parcial sobre las preferencias y creencias del decisor. En el Capítulo 2, estudiamos este problema cuando empleamos diagramas de influencia (DI). Damos un algoritmo para calcular las soluciones no dominadas en un DI y analizamos varios conceptos de solución ad hoc. El último aspecto se estudia en los Capítulos 3 y 4. Motivado por una aplicación de gestión de embalses, introducimos un método heurístico para resolver problemas de decisión secuenciales. Como muestra resultados muy buenos, extendemos la idea a problemas secuenciales generales y cuantificamos su bondad. Exploramos después en varias direcciones la aplicación de métodos de simulación al Análisis de Decisiones. Introducimos primero métodos de Monte Cario para aproximar el conjunto no dominado en problemas continuos. Después, proporcionamos un método de Monte Cario basado en cadenas de Markov para problemas con información completa con estructura general: las decisiones y las variables aleatorias pueden ser continuas, y la función de utilidad puede ser arbitraria. Nuestro esquema es aplicable a muchos problemas modelizados como DI. Finalizamos con un capítulo de conclusiones y problemas abiertos.---ABSTRACT---The foundations of Bayesian Decisión Theory provide a coherent framework in which decisión making problems may be solved. With the advent of powerful computers and given the many challenging problems we face, we are gradually attempting to solve more and more complex decisión making problems with high and multidimensional uncertainty, múltiple objectives, influence of time over decisión tasks and influence over many groups. These complexity factors demand better representation tools for decisión making problems; place strong cognitive demands on the decison maker judgements; and lead to involved computational problems. This thesis will deal with these three topics. In recent years, many representation tools have been developed for decisión making problems. In Chapter 1, we provide a critical review of most of them and conclude with recommendations and generalisations. Given our second query, we could wonder how may we deal with those representation tools when there is only partial information. In Chapter 2, we find out how to deal with such a problem when it is structured as an influence diagram (ID). We give an algorithm to compute nondominated solutions in ID's and analyse several ad hoc solution concepts.- The last issue is studied in Chapters 3 and 4. In a reservoir management case study, we have introduced a heuristic method for solving sequential decisión making problems. Since it shows very good performance, we extend the idea to general problems and quantify its goodness. We explore then in several directions the application of simulation based methods to Decisión Analysis. We first introduce Monte Cario methods to approximate the nondominated set in continuous problems. Then, we provide a Monte Cario Markov Chain method for problems under total information with general structure: decisions and random variables may be continuous, and the utility function may be arbitrary. Our scheme is applicable to many problems modeled as IDs. We conclude with discussions and several open problems.

Multiscale modeling of the plastic behaviour in single crystal tungsten: from atomistic to crystal plasticity simulations

En una planta de fusión, los materiales en contacto con el plasma así como los materiales de primera pared experimentan condiciones particularmente hostiles al estar expuestos a altos flujos de partículas, neutrones y grandes cargas térmicas. Como consecuencia de estas diferentes y complejas condiciones de trabajo, el estudio, desarrollo y diseño de estos materiales es uno de los más importantes retos que ha surgido en los últimos años para la comunidad científica en el campo de los materiales y la energía. Debido a su baja tasa de erosión, alta resistencia al sputtering, alta conductividad térmica, muy alto punto de fusión y baja retención de tritio, el tungsteno (wolframio) es un importante candidato como material de primera pared y como posible material estructural avanzado en fusión por confinamiento magnético e inercial. Sin embargo, el tiempo de vida del tungsteno viene controlado por diversos factores como son su respuesta termo-mecánica en la superficie, la posibilidad de fusión y el fallo por acumulación de helio. Es por ello que el tiempo de vida limitado por la respuesta mecánica del tungsteno (W), y en particular su fragilidad, sean dos importantes aspectos que tienes que ser investigados. El comportamiento plástico en materiales refractarios con estructura cristalina cúbica centrada en las caras (bcc) como el tungsteno está gobernado por las dislocaciones de tipo tornillo a escala atómica y por conjuntos e interacciones de dislocaciones a escalas más grandes. El modelado de este complejo comportamiento requiere la aplicación de métodos capaces de resolver de forma rigurosa cada una de las escalas. El trabajo que se presenta en esta tesis propone un modelado multiescala que es capaz de dar respuestas ingenieriles a las solicitudes técnicas del tungsteno, y que a su vez está apoyado por la rigurosa física subyacente a extensas simulaciones atomísticas. En primer lugar, las propiedades estáticas y dinámicas de las dislocaciones de tipo tornillo en cinco potenciales interatómicos de tungsteno son comparadas, determinando cuáles de ellos garantizan una mayor fidelidad física y eficiencia computacional. Las grandes tasas de deformación asociadas a las técnicas de dinámica molecular hacen que las funciones de movilidad de las dislocaciones obtenidas no puedan ser utilizadas en los siguientes pasos del modelado multiescala. En este trabajo, proponemos dos métodos alternativos para obtener las funciones de movilidad de las dislocaciones: un modelo Monte Cario cinético y expresiones analíticas. El conjunto de parámetros necesarios para formular el modelo de Monte Cario cinético y la ley de movilidad analítica son calculados atomísticamente. Estos parámetros incluyen, pero no se limitan a: la determinación de las entalpias y energías de formación de las parejas de escalones que forman las dislocaciones, la parametrización de los efectos de no Schmid característicos en materiales bcc,etc. Conociendo la ley de movilidad de las dislocaciones en función del esfuerzo aplicado y la temperatura, se introduce esta relación como ecuación de flujo dentro de un modelo de plasticidad cristalina. La predicción del modelo sobre la dependencia del límite de fluencia con la temperatura es validada experimentalmente con ensayos uniaxiales en tungsteno monocristalino. A continuación, se calcula el límite de fluencia al aplicar ensayos uniaxiales de tensión para un conjunto de orientaciones cristalográticas dentro del triángulo estándar variando la tasa de deformación y la temperatura de los ensayos. Finalmente, y con el objetivo de ser capaces de predecir una respuesta más dúctil del tungsteno para una variedad de estados de carga, se realizan ensayos biaxiales de tensión sobre algunas de las orientaciones cristalográficas ya estudiadas en función de la temperatura.-------------------------------------------------------------------------ABSTRACT ----------------------------------------------------------Tungsten and tungsten alloys are being considered as leading candidates for structural and functional materials in future fusion energy devices. The most attractive properties of tungsten for the design of magnetic and inertial fusion energy reactors are its high melting point, high thermal conductivity, low sputtering yield and low longterm disposal radioactive footprint. However, tungsten also presents a very low fracture toughness, mostly associated with inter-granular failure and bulk plasticity, that limits its applications. As a result of these various and complex conditions of work, the study, development and design of these materials is one of the most important challenges that have emerged in recent years to the scientific community in the field of materials for energy applications. The plastic behavior of body-centered cubic (bcc) refractory metals like tungsten is governed by the kink-pair mediated thermally activated motion of h¿ (\1 11)i screw dislocations on the atomistic scale and by ensembles and interactions of dislocations at larger scales. Modeling this complex behavior requires the application of methods capable of resolving rigorously each relevant scale. The work presented in this thesis proposes a multiscale model approach that gives engineering-level responses to the technical specifications required for the use of tungsten in fusion energy reactors, and it is also supported by the rigorous underlying physics of extensive atomistic simulations. First, the static and dynamic properties of screw dislocations in five interatomic potentials for tungsten are compared, determining which of these ensure greater physical fidelity and computational efficiency. The large strain rates associated with molecular dynamics techniques make the dislocation mobility functions obtained not suitable to be used in the next steps of the multiscale model. Therefore, it is necessary to employ mobility laws obtained from a different method. In this work, we suggest two alternative methods to get the dislocation mobility functions: a kinetic Monte Carlo model and analytical expressions. The set of parameters needed to formulate the kinetic Monte Carlo model and the analytical mobility law are calculated atomistically. These parameters include, but are not limited to: enthalpy and energy barriers of kink-pairs as a function of the stress, width of the kink-pairs, non-Schmid effects ( both twinning-antitwinning asymmetry and non-glide stresses), etc. The function relating dislocation velocity with applied stress and temperature is used as the main source of constitutive information into a dislocation-based crystal plasticity framework. We validate the dependence of the yield strength with the temperature predicted by the model against existing experimental data of tensile tests in singlecrystal tungsten, with excellent agreement between the simulations and the measured data. We then extend the model to a number of crystallographic orientations uniformly distributed in the standard triangle and study the effects of temperature and strain rate. Finally, we perform biaxial tensile tests and provide the yield surface as a function of the temperature for some of the crystallographic orientations explored in the uniaxial tensile tests.