Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.

Tree-Structured Stick Breaking Processes for Hierarchical Data

Many data are naturally modeled by an unobserved hierarchical structure. In this paper we propose a flexible nonparametric prior over unknown data hierarchies. The approach uses nested stick-breaking processes to allow for trees of unbounded width and depth, where data can live at any node and are infinitely exchangeable. One can view our model as providing infinite mixtures where the components have a dependency structure corresponding to an evolutionary diffusion down a tree. By using a stick-breaking approach, we can apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on slice sampling to perform Bayesian inference and simulate from the posterior distribution on trees. We apply our method to hierarchical clustering of images and topic modeling of text data.

A comparison of different failure assessment methodologies applied to the NESC-1 test

Predictions for a 75x205mm surface semi-elliptic defect in the NESC-1 spinning cylinder test have been made using BS PD 6493:1991, the R6 procedure, non-linear cracked body finite element analysis techniques and the local approach to fracture. All the techniques agree in predicting ductile tearing near the inner surface of the cylinder followed by cleavage initiation. However they differ in the amount of ductile tearing, and the exact location and time of any cleavage event. The amount of ductile tearing decreases with increasing sophistication in the analysis, due to the drop in peak crack driving force and more explicit consideration of constraint effects. The local approach predicts a high probability of cleavage in both HAZ and base material after 190s, while the other predictions suggest that cleavage is unlikely in the HAZ due to constraint loss, but likely in the underlying base material. The timing of this event varies from ∼150s for R6 predictions to ∼250-300s using non-linear cracked body analysis.

Fabrication of test structures for 4×4 InP/InGaAsP integrated optical matrix

A novel optical switching matrix measuring 1×2 mm2 in size is fabricated. The switching matrix is composed of waveguides, four 1×4 multimode interference (MMI) splitters, 32 total internal refraction mirrors and four 4×1 MMI combiners with the extremely compact size of 1×2 mm2. This integrated device are assessed and loss contribution measured from test structure is presented.

An investigation into the residual stresses in an aluminium 2024 test weld

This paper uses finite element (FE) analysis to examine the residual stresses generated during the TIG welding of aluminium aerospace alloys. It also looks at whether such an approach could be useful for evaluating the effectiveness of various residual stress control techniques. However, such simulations cannot be founded in a vacuum. They require accurate measurements to refine and validate them. The unique aspect of this work is that two powerful engineering techniques are combined: FE modelling and neutron diffraction. Weld trials were performed and the direct measurement of residual strain made using the ENGIN neutron diffraction strain scanning facility. The predicted results show an excellent agreement with experimental values. Finally this model is used to simulate a weld made using a "Low Stress No Distortion" (LSND) technique. Although the stress reduction predicted is only moderate, the study suggests the approach to be a quick and efficient means of optimising such techniques.

The development of aerodynamic performance measurements in a transient test facility

Transient test facilities offer the potential for the simultaneous study of turbine aerodynamic performance, unsteady flow phenomena and the heat transfer characteristics of a turbine stage. This paper describes the development of aerodynamic performance measurement techniques in the Oxford Rotor Facility (ORF). The solutions to the technological issues involved with transient testing presented in this paper are expected to achieve levels of precision uncertainty comparable with traditional steady flow test rigs. The theoretical background to the measurement of aerodynamic performance is presented together with a comprehensive pre-test uncertainty analysis. The instrumentation scheme for the measurement of stage mass flow rate is discussed in detail, the measurements of shaft power, total inlet enthalpy, and stage pressure ratio are also outlined. The current working section features a 62% scale, 1-1/2 stage, high-pressure shroudless transonic turbine. The required inlet flow conditions are provided by an Isentropic Light Piston Tunnel (ILPT) with a quasi-steady state run time of approximately 70ms. The testing is conducted at engine representative specific speed, pressure ratio, gas-to-wall temperature ratio, Mach number and Reynolds number.

Value roadmapping: A structured approach for early stage technology investment decisions

Deciding to invest in early stage technologies is one of the most important tasks of technology management and arguably also the most uncertain. It assumes a particular significance in the rise of technology companies in emerging economies, which have to make appropriate investment decisions. Technology managers already have a wide range of methods and tools at their disposal, but these are mostly focussed on quantitative measures such as discounted cash flow and real options techniques. However, in the early stages of technology development there seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with these techniques as there appears to be a lack of accuracy with respect to the underlying assumptions that these models require. In order to complement these models this paper will discuss an alternative approach that we call value road-mapping. By adapting roadmapping techniques the potential value streams of early stages technologies can be plotted and hence a clearer consensus based picture of the future potential of new technologies emerges. Roadmapping is a workshop-based process bringing together multifunctional perspectives, and supporting communication in particular between technical and commercial groups. The study is work in progress and is based on a growing number of cases. (c) 2006 PICMET.