Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary Area to be Avoided (ATBA) Education and Monitoring Program

The National Marine Sanctuaries Act (16 U.S.C. 1431, as amended) gives the Secretary of Commerce the authority to designate discrete areas of the marine environment as National Marine Sanctuaries and provides the authority to promulgate regulations to provide for the conservation and management of these marine areas. The waters of the Outer Washington Coast were recognized for their high natural resource and human use values and placed on the National Marine Sanctuary Program Site Evaluation List in 1983. In 1988, Congress directed NOAA to designate the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (Pub. L. 100-627). The Sanctuary, designated in May 1994, worked with the U.S. Coast Guard to request the International Maritime Organization designate an Area to be Avoided (ATBA) on the Olympic Coast. The IMO defines an ATBA as "a routeing measure comprising an area within defined limits in which either navigation is particularly hazardous or it is exceptionally important to avoid casualties and which should be avoided by all ships, or certain classes of ships" (IMO, 1991). This ATBA was adopted in December 1994 by the Maritime Safety Committee of the IMO, “in order to reduce the risk of marine casualty and resulting pollution and damage to the environment of the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary”, (IMO, 1994). The ATBA went into effect in June 1995 and advises operators of vessels carrying petroleum and/or hazardous materials to maintain a 25-mile buffer from the coast. Since that time, Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) has created an education and monitoring program with the goal of ensuring the successful implementation of the ATBA. The Sanctuary enlisted the aid of the U.S. and Canadian coast guards, and the marine industry to educate mariners about the ATBA and to use existing radar data to monitor compliance. Sanctuary monitoring efforts have targeted education on tank vessels observed transiting the ATBA. OCNMS's monitoring efforts allow quantitative evaluation of this voluntary measure. Finally, the tools developed to monitor the ATBA are also used for the more general purpose of monitoring vessel traffic within the Sanctuary. While the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary does not currently regulate vessel traffic, such regulations are within the scope of the Sanctuary’s Final Environmental Impact Statement/Management Plan. Sanctuary staff participate in ongoing maritime and environmental safety initiatives and continually seek opportunities to mitigate risks from marine shipping.(PDF contains 44 pages.)

Lessons from the breeding program on common carp in Hungary

Common carp is one of the most important cultured freshwater fish species in the world. Its production in freshwater areas is the second largest in Europe after rainbow trout. Common carp production in Europe was 146,845 t in 2004 (FAO Fishstat Plus 2006). Common carp production is concentrated mainly in Central and Eastern Europe. In Hungary, common carp has been traditionally cultured in earthen ponds since the late 19th century, following the sharp drop in catches from natural waters, due to the regulation of main river systems. Different production technologies and unintentional selection methods resulted in a wide variety of this species. Just before the intensification of rearing technology and the exchange of stocking materials among fish farms (early sixties), “landraces” of carp were collected from practically all Hungarian fish farms into a live gene bank at the Research Institute for Fisheries, Aquaculture and Irrigation (HAKI) at Szarvas (Bakos and Gorda 1995; Bakos and Gorda 2001). In order to provide highly productive hybrids for production purposes starting from 1964, different strains and crosses between Hungarian landraces were created and tested. During the last 40 years, approximately 150 two-, three-, and four-line hybrids were produced. While developing parental lines, methods of individual selection, inbreeding, backcrossing of lines, gynogenesis and sex reversal were used. This breeding program resulted in three outstanding hybrids: “Szarvas 215 mirror” and “Szarvas P31 scaly” for pond production, and “Szarvas P34 scaly” for angling waters. Besides satisfying the needs of industry, the live gene bank helped to conserve the biological diversity of Hungarian carp landraces. Fifteen Hungarian carp landraces are still maintained today in the gene bank. Through exchange programs fifteen foreign carp strains were added to the collection from Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Southeast Asia (Bakos and Gorda 2001). Besides developing the methodology to maintain live specimens in the gene bank, the National Carp Breeding Program has been initiated in cooperation with all the key stakeholders in Hungary, namely the National Association of Fish Producers (HOSZ), the National Institute for Agricultural Quality Control (OMMI), and the Research Institute for Fisheries, Aquaculture and Irrigation (HAKI). In addition, methodologies or technologies for broodstock management and carp performance testing have been developed. This National Carp Breeding Program is being implemented successfully since the mid-1990s.

Lessons from the breeding program of rohu

For the first time in India, selective breeding work has been initiated at the Central Institute of Freshwater Aquaculture, Bhubaneswar, India in collaboration with the Institute of Aquaculture Research (AKVAFORSK), Norway. Rohu has been chosen as the model species because it enjoys the highest consumer preference among Indian major carps (IMC) although its performance was observed to be slower than other IMC. As this was the first ever selection work on any Indian major carp, many procedures and techniques for successful implementation of the programs were standardized (i.e. production of full-sib groups, establishment of model hatchery for selective breeding of carps, rearing of full-sib groups in partitioned nursery ponds, individual tagging with the Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag, communal rearing, sampling, data analysis, field testing and dissemination of improved rohu). After four generations of selection, an average of 17 per cent higher growth per generation was observed in improved rohu.

NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP): Guidance for Regional Implementation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Coastal Change Analysis Programl (C-CAP) is developing a nationally standardized database on landcover and habitat change in the coastal regions of the United States. C-CAP is part of the Estuarine Habitat Program (EHP) of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program (COP). C-CAP inventories coastal submersed habitats, wetland habitats, and adjacent uplands and monitors changes in these habitats on a one- to five-year cycle. This type of information and frequency of detection are required to improve scientific understanding of the linkages of coastal and submersed wetland habitats with adjacent uplands and with the distribution, abundance, and health of living marine resources. The monitoring cycle will vary according to the rate and magnitude of change in each geographic region. Satellite imagery (primarily Landsat Thematic Mapper), aerial photography, and field data are interpreted, classified, analyzed, and integrated with other digital data in a geographic information system (GIS). The resulting landcover change databases are disseminated in digital form for use by anyone wishing to conduct geographic analysis in the completed regions. C-CAP spatial information on coastal change will be input to EHP conceptual and predictive models to support coastal resource policy planning and analysis. CCAP products will include 1) spatially registered digital databases and images, 2) tabular summaries by state, county, and hydrologic unit, and 3) documentation. Aggregations to larger areas (representing habitats, wildlife refuges, or management districts) will be provided on a case-by-case basis. Ongoing C-CAP research will continue to explore techniques for remote determination of biomass, productivity, and functional status of wetlands and will evaluate new technologies (e.g. remote sensor systems, global positioning systems, image processing algorithms) as they become available. Selected hardcopy land-cover change maps will be produced at local (1:24,000) to regional scales (1:500,000) for distribution. Digital land-cover change data will be provided to users for the cost of reproduction. Much of the guidance contained in this document was developed through a series of professional workshops and interagency meetings that focused on a) coastal wetlands and uplands; b) coastal submersed habitat including aquatic beds; c) user needs; d) regional issues; e) classification schemes; f) change detection techniques; and g) data quality. Invited participants included technical and regional experts and representatives of key State and Federal organizations. Coastal habitat managers and researchers were given an opportunity for review and comment. This document summarizes C-CAP protocols and procedures that are to be used by scientists throughout the United States to develop consistent and reliable coastal change information for input to the C-CAP nationwide database. It also provides useful guidelines for contributors working on related projects. It is considered a working document subject to periodic review and revision.(PDF file contains 104 pages.)

Increasing the contribution of small-scale fisheries to poverty alleviation and food security

The objectives of these Technical Guidelines are to provide a focus on small-scale fisheries and their current and potential role in contributing to poverty alleviation and food security by expanding on the guidance on small-scale fisheries offered by the Code. The Guidelines are complementary to existing Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. Most small-scale fishers are in developing countries and many live in communities characterized by poverty and food insecurity. Small-scale fishing communities are faced with an array of serious problems, including overexploitation and depletion of resources, lack of alternative sources of employment, rapid population growth, migration of populations, displacement in coastal areas due to industrial development and tourism, pollution and environmental degradation and conflicts with large commercial fishing operations. However, small-scale fisheries are critical for food security and poverty alleviation in many countries. The first part of the Guidelines discusses the current contribution, role and importance of small-scale fisheries in poverty alleviation and food security. It examines the importance of small-scale fisheries for poverty alleviation at a national, local and household level. It also notes the nutritional qualities of fish and thus the particular role of fish in nutritional aspects of food security. The fact that about half of all fish caught for human consumption comes from small-scale fisheries underlines the importance of this subsector for the world fish supply. In many countries small-scale fisheries contribute to national food security both directly – where fish is a crucial part of the daily diet, and indirectly – by generating foreign exchange earnings that enable the purchase through trade of a range of food products. The second part of the Guidelines explores ways through which the contribution of small-scale fisheries to poverty alleviation and food security could be enhanced. A vision for the future of small-scale fisheries is presented as a goal towards which the subsector should develop. Ensuring greater participation by small-scale fishers and their communities in the formulation of policies, the development of related legislation and regulations, and in management decision-making and implementation processes, is vital to the realization of this vision. The central role of effective fisheries management, the importance of considering cross sectoral uses of fisheries and related resources, the special role of women in fish marketing, processing and value addition, the significant scope for trade, the critical role that adequate financing may have in enabling transitions for effective fisheries management and the role of knowledge in making informed decisions are all discussed in these Guidelines. (PDF contains 97 pages)

Hypoxia and Sturgeons: report to the Chesapeake Bay Program Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Team

In this essay, three lines of evidence are developed that sturgeons in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere are unusually sensitive to hypoxic conditions: 1. In comparison to other fishes, sturgeons have a limited behavioral and physiological capacity to respond to hypoxia. Basal metabolism, growth, and consumption are quite sensitive to changes in oxygen level, which may indicate a relatively poor ability by sturgeons to oxyregulate. 2. During summertime, temperatures >20 C amplify the effect of hypoxia on sturgeons and other fishes due to a temperature*oxygen "squeeze" (Coutant 1987)- In bottom waters, this interaction results in substantial reduction of habitat; in dry years, nursery habitats in the Chesapeake Bay may be particularly reduced or even eliminated. 3. While evidence for population level effects by hypoxia are circumstantial, there are corresponding trends between the absence of Atlantic sturgeon reproduction in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay where summertime hypoxia predominates on a system-wide scale. Also, the recent and dramatic recovery of shortnose sturgeon in the Hudson River (4-fold increase in abundance from 1980 to 1995) may have been stimulated by improvement of a large portion of the nursery habitat that was restored from hypoxia to normoxia during the period 1973-1978. (PDF contains 26 pages)

Cartas enviadas por Niceto Alcalá Zamora a Justo Garate entre 1947 y 1948

2 cartas (mecanografiadas) ; 210x270 mm. Ubicación: Caja 1 - Carpeta 18

Carta enviada por José de Arriga a Justo Garate en 1947

1 carta (mecanografiada) ; 340x165mm. Ubicación: Caja 1 - Carpeta 61

Somatisation in primary care: experiences of primary care physicians involved in a training program and in a randomised controlled trial

Background: A new intervention aimed at managing patients with medically unexplained symptoms (MUS) based on a specific set of communication techniques was developed, and tested in a cluster randomised clinical trial. Due to the modest results obtained and in order to improve our intervention we need to know the GPs' attitudes towards patients with MUS, their experience, expectations and the utility of the communication techniques we proposed and the feasibility of implementing them. Physicians who took part in 2 different training programs and in a randomised controlled trial (RCT) for patients with MUS were questioned to ascertain the reasons for the doctors' participation in the trial and the attitudes, experiences and expectations of GPs about the intervention. Methods: A qualitative study based on four focus groups with GPs who took part in a RCT. A content analysis was carried out. Results: Following the RCT patients are perceived as true suffering persons, and the relationship with them has improved in GPs of both groups. GPs mostly valued the fact that it is highly structured, that it made possible a more comfortable relationship and that it could be applied to a broad spectrum of patients with psychosocial problems. Nevertheless, all participants consider that change in patients is necessary; GPs in the intervention group remarked that that is extremely difficult to achieve. Conclusion: GPs positively evaluate the communication techniques and the interventions that help in understanding patient suffering, and express the enormous difficulties in handling change in patients. These findings provide information on the direction in which efforts for improving intervention should be directed.