978 resultados para Logistic Regressions
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BACKGROUND:The Swiss breast cancer screening pilot programme was conducted in 3 districts of theFrench-speaking canton of Vaud (ca. 300,000 resident women) between October 1993 and January 1999.Women aged 50 to 69 were invited by mail every 2 years for a free of charge screening mammography (doubleview, multiple reading). This first ever-organised cancer screening programme in Switzerland showed thefeasibility and acceptability of this kind of public health intervention in the liberal Swiss healthcare system, whichwas the main objective of the pilot programme. This mammographic screening programme was extended to thewhole canton in 1999, and contributed to the implementation of similar programmes in 2 neighbouring cantons. OBJECTIVE:To appraise the use, the quality and the effectiveness of the Swiss screening pilot programme. METHODS:About 15,000 women (aged 50-69) were enrolled. Logistic regression analyses were performedseparately to identify determinants of initial and subsequent attendance. Standard indicators of quality,effectiveness and impact of the programme were assessed and compared with European recommendations. Tothis intent, linkage with data from the Vaud Cancer Registry was performed. RESULTS:About half the target population was screened at least once during the pilot trial. Participation washigher among Swiss than foreigners, among widowed or married women than among single, divorced or separatedones. Attendance also increased with age and decreasing distance between residence and the dedicatedscreening centre. Apart from Swiss citizenship, socio-demographic factors were not associated with reattendance.Intensity of prior recruitment, outcome of previous screening test (positive vs. negative) and indicators of women'shealth behaviour (time of last mammography prior to initial screen, smoking status) were the main determinants ofreattendance. Programme performance and quality indicators were, overall, in line with European Guidelines. Theywere overall more favourable among 60-69 than 50-59 year-olds and improved over time. CONCLUSION:The objectives of the pilot programme were met. Even if participation should increase in order toreach European standards, performance indicators overall met quality requirements. Ways to improve screeninguse, quality and effectiveness were devised and taken into account for the generalisation of the programme.
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During the last two decades there has been an increase in using dynamic tariffs for billing household electricity consumption. This has questioned the suitability of traditional pricing schemes, such as two-part tariffs, since they contribute to create marked peak and offpeak demands. The aim of this paper is to assess if two-part tariffs are an efficient pricing scheme using Spanish household electricity microdata. An ordered probit model with instrumental variables on the determinants of power level choice and non-paramentric spline regressions on the electricity price distribution will allow us to distinguish between the tariff structure choice and the simultaneous demand decisions. We conclude that electricity consumption and dwellings’ and individuals’ characteristics are key determinants of the fixed charge paid by Spanish households Finally, the results point to the inefficiency of the two-part tariff as those consumers who consume more electricity pay a lower price than the others.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: None of the randomized trials of intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator reported vascular imaging acquired before thrombolysis. Efficacy of tissue-type plasminogen activator in stroke without arterial occlusion on vascular imaging remains unknown and speculative. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, multicenter study to collect data of patients who presented to participating centers during a 5-year period with ischemic stroke diagnosed by clinical examination and MRI and with imaging evidence of no vascular occlusion. These patients were divided into 2 groups: those who received thrombolytic therapy and those who did not. Primary outcome measure of the study was excellent clinical outcome defined as modified Rankin Scale of 0 to 1 at 90 days from stroke onset. Secondary outcome measures were good clinical outcome (modified Rankin Scale, 0-2) and perfect outcome (modified Rankin Scale, 0). Safety outcome measures were incidence of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage and poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale, 4-6). RESULTS: A total of 256 patients met study criteria, 103 with thrombolysis and 153 without. Logistic regression analysis showed that patients who received thrombolysis had more frequent excellent outcomes with odds ratio of 3.79 (P<0.01). Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage was more frequent in thrombolysis group (4.9 versus 0.7%; P=0.04). Thrombolysis led to more frequent excellent outcome in nonlacunar group with odds ratio 4.90 (P<0.01) and more frequent perfect outcome in lacunar group with odds ratio 8.25 (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides crucial data that patients with ischemic stroke who do not have visible arterial occlusion at presentation may benefit from thrombolysis.
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BACKGROUND: The oral cavity is frequently affected in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), especially in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). Periodontitis is thought to influence systemic autoimmune or inflammatory diseases. We aimed to analyze the relationship of periodontitis and gingivitis markers with specific disease characteristics in patients with IBD and to compare these data with healthy controls. METHODS: In a prospective 8-month study, systematic oral examinations were performed in 113 patients with IBD, including 69 patients with CD and 44 patients with ulcerative colitis. For all patients, a structured personal history was taken. One hundred thirteen healthy volunteers served as a control group. Oral examination focussed on established oral health markers for periodontitis (bleeding on probing, loss of attachment, and periodontal pocket depth) and gingivitis (papilla bleeding index). Additionally, visible oral lesions were documented. RESULTS: Both gingivitis and periodontitis markers were higher in patients with IBD than in healthy control. In univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis, perianal disease was a risk factor for periodontitis. Nonsmoking decreased the risk of having periodontitis. No clear association was found between clinical activity and periodontitis in IBD. In only the CD subgroup, high clinical activity (Harvey-Bradshaw index > 10) was associated with 1 periodontitis marker, the loss of attachment at sites of maximal periodontal pocket depth. Oral lesions besides periodontitis and gingivitis were not common, but nevertheless observed in about 10% of patients with IBD. CONCLUSIONS: IBD, and especially perianal disease in CD, is associated with periodontitis. Optimal therapeutic strategies should probably focus on treating both local oral and systemic inflammation.
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AIM: To confirm the accuracy of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) procedure and its morbidity, and to investigate predictive factors for SN status and prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 1997 and December 2004, 327 consecutive patients in one centre with clinically node-negative primary skin melanoma underwent an SNB by the triple technique, i.e. lymphoscintigraphy, blue-dye and gamma-probe. Multivariate logistic regression analyses as well as the Kaplan-Meier were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of the patients had at least one metastatic SN, which was significantly associated with Breslow thickness (p<0.001). The success rate of SNB was 99.1% and its morbidity was 7.6%. With a median follow-up of 33 months, the 5-year DFS/DSS were 43%/49% for patients with positive SN and 83.5%/87.4% for patients with negative SN, respectively. The false-negative rate of SNB was 8.6% and sensitivity 91.4%. On multivariate analysis, DFS was significantly worsened by Breslow thickness (RR=5.6, p<0.001), positive SN (RR=5.0, p<0.001) and male sex (RR=2.9, p=0.001). The presence of a metastatic SN (RR=8.4, p<0.001), male sex (RR=6.1, p<0.001), Breslow thickness (RR=3.2, p=0.013) and ulceration (RR=2.6, p=0.015) were significantly associated with a poorer DSS. CONCLUSION: SNB is a reliable procedure with high sensitivity (91.4%) and low morbidity. Breslow thickness was the only statistically significant parameter predictive of SN status. DFS was worsened in decreasing order by Breslow thickness, metastatic SN and male gender. Similarly DSS was significantly worsened by a metastatic SN, male gender, Breslow thickness and ulceration. These data reinforce the SN status as a powerful staging procedure
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The present study was performed using data from a Biomphalaria tenagophila population located in a water cress garden in the Alto da Boa Vista region representing an isolated focal point of schistosomiasis in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The density and age structure of this B. tenagophila population and its rate of intection by Schistosoma mansoni were studied for a period of 15 months. The snail population showed seasonal variation in density, with a decrease in number of individual at the begining of the rainy season. At the end of this season, the population consisted mainly of adults (92.8% in May 1985 and 82.8% in April 1986). The population growth curve was logistic and of sigmoidal configuration. Shiscotoma mansoni cercariae were eliminated over a short period of time (March, April and May 1986). The release of cercariae of S. mansoni and of birds seems to depend on environmental temperature, which during certain months would show a daily variation of up to 13ºC, with the lower thermal limit approaching the limit value for sporocyte development.
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AIM: To assess the role of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), age, smoking and body weight on the development of intestinal metaplasia of the gastric cardia (IMC).¦METHODS: Two hundred and seventeen patients scheduled for esophagogastroduodenoscopy were enrolled in this study. Endoscopic biopsies from the esophagus, gastroesophageal junction and stomach were evaluated for inflammation, the presence of H. pylori and intestinal metaplasia. The correlation of these factors with the presence of IMC was assessed using logistic regression.¦RESULTS: IMC was observed in 42% of the patients. Patient age, smoking habit and body mass index (BMI) were found as potential contributors to IMC. The risk of developing IMC can be predicted in theory by combining these factors according to the following formula: Risk of IMC = a + s - 2B where a = 2,...6 decade of age, s = 0 for non-smokers or ex-smokers, 1 for < 10 cigarettes/d, 2 for > 10 cigarettes/d and B = 0 for BMI < 25 kg/m² (BMI < 27 kg/m² in females), 1 for BMI > 25 kg/m² (BMI > 27 kg/m² in females). Among potential factors associated with IMC, H. pylori had borderline significance (P = 0.07), while GERD showed no significance.¦CONCLUSION: Age, smoking and BMI are potential factors associated with IMC, while H. pylori and GERD show no significant association. IMC can be predicted in theory by logistic regression analysis.
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We examine the long run relationship between stock prices and goods prices to gauge whether stock market investment can hedge against inflation. Data from sixteen OECD countries over the period 1970-2006 are used. We account for different inflation regimes with the use of sub-sample regressions, whilst maintaining the power of tests in small sample sizes by combining time-series data across our sample countries in a panel unit root and panel cointegration econometric framework. The evidence supports a positive long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices with the estimated goods price coefficient being in line with the generalized Fisher hypothesis.
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Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of California at Berkeley between September 2007 to February 2008. The globalization combined with the success of containerization has brought about tremendous increases in the transportation of containers across the world. This leads to an increasing size of container ships which causes higher demands on seaport container terminals and their equipment. In this situation, the success of container terminals resides in a fast transhipment process with reduced costs. For these reasons it is necessary to optimize the terminal’s processes. There are three main logistic processes in a seaport container terminal: loading and unloading of containerships, storage, and reception/deliver of containers from/to the hinterland. Moreover there is an additional process that ensures the interconnection between previous logistic activities: the internal transport subsystem. The aim of this paper is to optimize the internal transport cycle in a marine container terminal managed by straddle carriers, one of the most used container transfer technologies. Three sub-systems are analyzed in detail: the landside transportation, the storage of containers in the yard, and the quayside transportation. The conflicts and decisions that arise from these three subsystems are analytically investigated, and optimization algorithms are proposed. Moreover, simulation has been applied to TCB (Barcelona Container Terminal) to test these algorithms and compare different straddle carrier’s operation strategies, such as single cycle versus double cycle, and different sizes of the handling equipment fleet. The simulation model is explained in detail and the main decision-making algorithms from the model are presented and formulated.
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BACKGROUND: Children with atopic diseases in early life are frequently found with positive IgE tests to peanuts/tree nuts without a history of previous ingestion. We aimed to identify risk factors for reactions to nuts at first introduction. METHODS: A retrospective case-note and database analysis was performed. Recruitment criteria were: patients aged 3-16 yr who had a standardized food challenge to peanut and/or tree nuts due to sensitisation to the peanut/tree nut (positive spIgE or SPT) without previous consumption. A detailed assessment was performed of factors relating to food challenge outcome with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: There were 98 food challenges (47 peanut, 51 tree nut) with 29 positive, 67 negative and 2 inconclusive outcomes. A positive maternal history of allergy and a specific IgE >5 kU/l were strongly associated with a significantly increased risk of a positive food challenge (OR 3.73; 95% CI 1.31-10.59; p = 0.013 and OR 3.35; 95% CI 1.23-9.11; p = 0.007, respectively). Adjusting for age, a three year-old with these criteria has a 67% probability of a positive challenge. There was no significant association between types of peanut/tree nut, other food allergies, atopic conditions or severity of previous food reactions and positive challenges. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated an association between the presence of maternal atopic history and a specific IgE >5 kU/l, with a significant increase in the likelihood of a positive food challenge. Although requiring further prospective validation these easily identifiable components should be considered when deciding the need for a challenge.
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This paper advances that the share of European descendants in the population is a major determinant of democracy in former colonial countries. We test this hypothesis using cross-section and panel regressions with 60 developing and developed countries that were once colonies. We find that the share of European descendants can explain more than half of the difference in measures of democracy between the least and the most democratic countries in our sample. We control for other potential determinants of democracy and test for endogeneity bias using instrumental variables.
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This paper investigates the role of institutions in determining per capita income levels and growth. It contributes to the empirical literature by using different variables as proxies for institutions and by developing a deeper analysis of the issues arising from the use of weak and too many instruments in per capita income and growth regressions. The cross-section estimation suggests that institutions seem to matter, regardless if they are the only explanatory variable or are combined with geographical and integration variables, although most models suffer from the issue of weak instruments. The results from the growth models provides some interesting results: there is mixed evidence on the role of institutions and such evidence is more likely to be associated with law and order and investment profile; government spending is an important policy variable; collapsing the number of instruments results in fewer significant coefficients for institutions.
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Is institutional quality a major driver of economic development? This paper tackles the question by focusing on the within-country variation of growth rates of GDP per capita. While previous attempts using this methodology have controlled for many of the standard de- terminants of the empirical growth literature, we argue that such ap- proach is not adequate if good institutions are the main reason behind decisions to invest in human or physical capital accumulation or to engage in international trade. Our regressions exclude the proximate causes of growth in order to estimate the overall e¤ect of institutional quality. Perhaps surprisingly, we nd no support for the thesis that institutional quality improves economic growth. These results encourage a reconsideration of the evidence provided elsewhere in the literature.
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INTRODUCTION: Assessing motivation for change is deemed an important step in the treatment process that allows further refinement of the intervention in motivational interviewing (MI) and brief MI (BMI) adaptations. During MI (and BMI) sessions, motivation for change is expressed by the client as "change talk", i.e. all statements inclined toward or away from change. We tested the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire, a 12-item instrument assessing motivation to change, on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use. METHODS: As part of the baseline measurements for a randomized controlled trial on multi-substance BMI at the Lausanne recruitment center (army conscription is mandatory in Switzerland for males at age 20, and thus provides a unique opportunity to address a non-clinical and largely representative sample of young men), 213 participants completed the questionnaire on tobacco and 95 on alcohol and were followed-up six months later. The overall Change Questionnaire score and its six subscales (Desire, Ability, Reasons, Need, Commitment, and Taking steps) were used as predictors of hazardous tobacco use (defined as daily smoking) and hazardous alcohol use (defined as more than one occasion with six standard drinks or more per month, and/or more than 21 standard drinks per week) in bivariate logistic regression models at follow-up. RESULTS: Higher overall Change scores were significant predictors of decreased risk for hazardous tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 0.83, p = 0.046) and alcohol (OR = 0.76, p = 0.03) use. Several sub-dimensions were associated with the outcomes in bivariate analyses. Using a principal components analysis to reduce the number of predictors for multivariate models, we obtained two components. 'Ability to change' was strongly related to change in hazardous tobacco use (OR = 0.54, p < 0.001), the second we interpreted as 'Other change language dimensions' and which was significantly related to change in hazardous alcohol use (OR = 0.81, p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present findings lend initial support for the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use, making it an interesting and potentially useful tool for assessing motivation to change among young males.
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BACKGROUND: Life partnerships other than marriage are rarely studied in childhood cancer survivors (CCS). We aimed (1) to describe life partnership and marriage in CCS and compare them to life partnerships in siblings and the general population; and (2) to identify socio-demographic and cancer-related factors associated with life partnership and marriage. METHODS: As part of the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS), a questionnaire was sent to all CCS (aged 20-40 years) registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry (SCCR), aged <16 years at diagnosis, who had survived ≥ 5 years. The proportion with life partner or married was compared between CSS and siblings and participants in the Swiss Health Survey (SHS). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with life partnership or marriage. RESULTS: We included 1,096 CCS of the SCCSS, 500 siblings and 5,593 participants of the SHS. Fewer CCS (47%) than siblings (61%, P < 0.001) had life partners, and fewer CCS were married (16%) than among the SHS population (26%, P > 0.001). Older (OR = 1.14, P < 0.001) and female CCS (OR = 1.85, <0.001) were more likely to have life partners. CCS who had undergone radiotherapy, bone marrow transplants (global P Treatment = 0.018) or who had a CNS diagnosis (global P Diagnosis < 0.001) were less likely to have life partners. CONCLUSION: CCS are less likely to have life partners than their peers. Most CCS with a life partner were not married. Future research should focus on the effect of these disparities on the quality of life of CCS.