A simulation model for analysing patient activity in dermatology

We developed a general model to assess patient activity within the primary and secondary health-care sectors following a dermatology outpatient consultation. Based on observed variables from the UK teledermatology trial, the model showed that up to 11 doctor-patient interactions occurred before a patient was ultimately discharged from care. In a cohort of 1000 patients, the average number of health-care visits was 2.4 (range 1-11). Simulation analysis suggested that the most important parameter affecting the total number of doctor-patient Interactions is patient discharge from care following the initial consultation. This implies that resources should be concentrated in this area. The introduction of teledermatology (either realtime or store and forward) changes the values of the model parameters. The model provides a quantitative tool for planning the future provision of dermatology health-care.

An evaluation of the first year's experience with a low-cost telemedicine link in Bangladesh

In July 1999, the Swinfen Charitable Trust in the UK established a telemedicine link in Bangladesh, between the Centre for the Rehabilitation of the Paralysed (CRP) in Dhaka and medical consultants abroad. This low-cost telemedicine system used a digital camera to capture still images, which were then transmitted by email. During the first 12 months, 27 telemedicine referrals were made. The following specialties were consulted: neurology (44%), orthopaedics (40%), rheumatology (8%), nephrology (4%) and paediatrics (4%). Initial email replies were received at the CRP within a day of referral in 70% of cases and within thee days in 100%, which shows that store-and-forward telemedicine can be both fast and reliable. Telemedicine consultation was complete within three days in 14 cases (52%) and within three weeks in 24 cases (89%). Referral was judged to be beneficial in 24 cases (89%), the benefits including establishment of the diagnosis, the provision of reassurance to the patient and referring doctor, and a change of management. Four patients (15% of the total) and their families were spared the considerable expense and unnecessary stress of travelling abroad for a second opinion, and the savings from this alone outweighed the set-up and running costs in Bangladesh. The latter are limited to an email account with an Internet service provider and the local-rate telephone call charges from the CRP. This successful telemedicine system is a model for further telemedicine projects in the developing world.

Predicting coal ash slag flow characteristics (viscosity model for the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system)

A model has been developed which enables the viscosities of coal ash slags to be predicted as a function of composition and temperature under reducing conditions. The model describes both completely liquid and heterogeneous, i.e. partly crystallised, slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system in equilibrium with metallic iron. The Urbain formalism has been modified to describe the viscosities of the liquid slag phase over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. The computer package F * A * C * T was used to predict the proportions of solids and the compositions of the remaining liquid phases. The Roscoe equation has been used to describe the effect of presence of solid suspension (slurry effect) on the viscosity of partly crystallised slag systems. The model provides a good description of the experimental data of fully liquid, and liquid + solids mixtures, over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. This model can now be used for viscosity predictions in industrial slag systems. Examples of the application of the new model to coal ash fluxing and blending are given in the paper. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a short-term model using petrophysical logging at Century Mine, North Queensland

Pasminco Century Mine has developed a geophysical logging system to provide new data for ore mining/grade control and the generation of Short Term Models for mine planning. Previous work indicated the applicability of petrophysical logging for lithology prediction, however, the automation of the method was not considered reliable enough for the development of a mining model. A test survey was undertaken using two diamond drilled control holes and eight percussion holes. All holes were logged with natural gamma, magnetic susceptibility and density. Calibration of the LogTrans auto-interpretation software using only natural gamma and magnetic susceptibility indicated that both lithology and stratigraphy could be predicted. Development of a capability to enforce stratigraphic order within LogTrans increased the reliability and accuracy of interpretations. After the completion of a feasibility program, Century Mine has invested in a dedicated logging vehicle to log blast holes as well as for use in in-fill drilling programs. Future refinement of the system may lead to the development of GPS controlled excavators for mining ore.

The effects of interleukin-10 depletion in vivo on the immune response to Porphyromonas gingivalis in a murine model

Background: The immune response to Porphyromonas gingivalis in the mouse abscess model is known to be dependent upon CD4 T-cell activation and the regulatory role of cytokines. The role of interleukin-10 (IL-10) in this mouse model was examined in vivo. Methods: One-week-old, female BALB/c mice were divided into 4 groups. Groups 1 and 2 were given intraperitoneal (ip) injections of phosphate buffered saline (PBS) weekly for 5 weeks. Group 3 was given an ip injection of rat immunoglobulin. Group 4 was injected with rat anti-IL-10 antibodies. At week 6, group 1 was sham-immunized with PBS, and groups 2, 3, and 4 were injected with P gingivalis lipopolysaccharide (Pg-LPS) weekly for 2 weeks. One week after the final immunization, delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) was assessed by footpad swelling to Pg-LPS. The level of serum antibodies to Pg-LPS and IFN-gamma (IFN-gamma) was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Dorsal abscess formation induced by the injection of viable P gingivalis was examined daily for 30 days. Results: The footpad swelling of the anti-IL-10-treated group (group 4) was significantly higher than that of groups 1 to 3. Similarly, the serum IFN-gamma level in group 4 was much higher than that of the other experimental groups. There was no significant difference in serum IgG antibodies to Pg-LPS in any of the experimental groups. However, the level of IgM antibodies in group 4 mice was significantly lower than that in groups 2 and 3. In addition, serum IgG1 was suppressed in group 4 mice, while IgG2a antibodies were raised. However, there was no difference observed between the levels of IgG2b and IgG3 antibodies in any group of mice. The lesions in sham-immunized mice (group 1) persisted for 30 days, and those in group 2 and 3 were undetected by day 18 and 20, respectively. In sharp contrast, lesions in group 4 had healed completely by day 13. Conclusions: This study has shown that IL-10 depletion in vivo in P gingivalis LPS-induced immune response in mice led to an elevated DTH response, an increase in serum IFN-gamma levels, and raised levels of IgG and IgG2a antibodies. Treatment with anti-IL-10 antibodies resulted in suppressed IgG I and IgM responses and a more rapid healing of abscesses than in non-IL-10-depleted mice. These results suggest that IL-10 depletion in Pg-LPS-induced immune response in mice may lead to a Th1-like immune response and provide strong protection against a subsequent challenge with live P gingivalis in an abscess model.

Mass balance characterisation of Al-7Si-Mg alloy microstructures as a function of solution treatment time

Mass balance calculations were performed to model the effect of solution treatment time on A356 and A357 alloy microstructures. Image analysis and electron probe microanalysis were used to characterise microstructures and confirm model predictions. In as-cast microstructures, up to 8 times more Mg is tied up in the pi-phase than in Mg2Si. The dissolution of pi is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the amount of beta-phase. This causes the rate of pi dissolution to be limited by the rate of beta formation. It is predicted that solution treatments of the order of tens of minutes at 540degreesC produce near-maximum T6 yield strengths, and that Mg contents in excess of 0.52 wt% have no advantage.