The political economy of inequality and growth: Essays on sovereign debt, democracy and saving

This dissertation addresses three issues in the political economy of growth literature. The first study empirically tests the hypothesis that income inequality influences the size of a country's sovereign debt for a sample of developing countries for the period 1970–1990. The argument examined is that governments tend to yield to popular pressures to engage in redistributive policies, partially financed by foreign borrowing. Facing increased risk of default, international creditors limit the credit they extend, with the result that borrowing countries invest less and grow at a slower pace. The findings do not seem to support the negative relationship between inequality and sovereign debt, as there is evidence of increases in multilateral, countercyclical flows until the mid 1980s in Latin America. The hypothesis would hold for the period 1983–1990. Debt flows and levels seem to be positively correlated with growth as expected. ^ The second study empirically investigates the hypothesis that pronounced levels of inequality lead to unconsolidated democracies. We test the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between inequality and democracy for a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1970–2000, where democracy appears to consolidate at some intermediate level of inequality. We find that the nonmonotonic relationship holds using instrumental variables methods. Bolivia seems to be a case of unconsolidated democracy. The positive relationship between per capita income and democracy disappears once fixed effects are introduced. ^ The third study explores the nonlinear relationship between per capita income and private saving levels in Latin America. Several estimation methods are presented; however, only the estimation of a dynamic specification through a state-of-the-art general method of moments estimator yields consistent estimates with increased efficiency. Results support the hypothesis that income positively affects private saving, while system GMM reveals nonlinear effects at income levels that exceed the ones included in this sample for the period 1960–1994. We also find that growth, government dissaving, and tightening of credit constraints have a highly significant and positive effect on private saving. ^

Economic and trade relations between Latin America and Asia Pacific: The link with China

Includes bibliography

Development Begins at Home: Women and the Domestic Economy in Brazil, 1945-1975

A number of historians of twentieth-century Latin America have identified ways that national labor laws, civil codes, social welfare programs, and business practices contributed to a gendered division of society that subordinated women to men in national economic development, household management, and familial relations. Few scholars, however, have critically explored women's roles as consumers and housewives in these intertwined realms. This work examines the Brazilian case after the Second World War, arguing that economic policies and business practices associated with “developmentalism” [Portuguese: desenvolvimentismo] created openings for women to engage in debates about national progress and transnational standards of modernity. While acknowledging that an asymmetry of gender relations persisted, the study demonstrates that urban women expanded their agency in this period, especially over areas of economic and family life deemed "domestic." This dissertation examines periodicals, consumer research statistics, public opinion surveys, personal interviews, corporate archives, the archives of key women’s organizations, and government officials’ records to identify the role that women and household economies played in Brazilian developmentalism between 1945 and 1975. Its principal argument is that business and political elites attempted to define gender roles for adult urban women as housewives and mothers, linking their management of the household to familial well-being and national modernization. In turn, Brazilian women deployed these idealized roles in public to advance their own economic interests, especially in the management of household finances and consumption, as well as to expand legal rights for married women, and increase women’s participation in the workforce. As the market for women's labor expanded with continued industrialization, these efforts defined a more active role for women in the economy and in debates about the trajectory of national development policies.

State and economy. William Beveridge and Walter Eucken's criticisms and proposals. (A historical comparative perspective)

The central problem that this paper addresses is the development of political economic thought, both in Germany and in Great Britain, related to the construction of societies in which the State had a role in ensuring levels of stability and economic security to its inhabitants, particularly during the late 1940s -- This article proposes a comparative historical perspective of political economic thought of the British economist William Beveridge and his German counterpart Walter Eucken -- The comparison is based on their critiques to the economic system and proposals on the role that the State should play in the economy -- The study of the ideas of both thinkers, their criticisms and proposals on economic and political issues, allows us to understand the set of ideas that influenced the development of the Welfare State of the post war period, both in Britain and Germany

Musculoskeletal Evaluation In Severe Haemophilia A Patients From Latin America.

There is a paucity of literature on haemophilia treatment in Latin American countries, a region characterized by rapidly improving systems of care, but with substantial disparities in treatment between countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the musculoskeletal status of haemophilia patients from Latin America and to examine the relationship between musculoskeletal status and treatment practices across countries. The Committee of Latin America on the Therapeutics of Inhibitor Groups conducted a survey of its member country representatives on key aspects of haemophilia treatment in 10 countries. Musculoskeletal status of patients was obtained during routine comprehensive evaluations between March 2009 and March 2011. Eligible patients had severe haemophilia A (factor VIII <1%) without inhibitors (<0.6 BU mL(-1) ) and were ≥5 years of age. Musculoskeletal status was compared between three groups of countries, based primarily on differences in the availability of long-term prophylaxis. Overall, 143 patients (5-66 years of age) were enrolled from nine countries. In countries where long-term prophylaxis had been available for at least 10 years (Group A), patients aged 5-10 years had significantly better mean World Federation of Hemophilia clinical scores, fewer target joints and fewer affected joints than patients from countries where long-term prophylaxis has been available for about 5 years (Group B) or was not available (Group C). In Latin America, the musculoskeletal status of patients with severe haemophilia without inhibitors has improved significantly in association with the provision of long-term prophylaxis. As more countries in Latin America institute this practice, further improvements are anticipated.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Import substitution and economic growth

Despite Latin America`s dismal performance between the 1950s and 1980s, the region experienced strong capital deepening. We suggest that these facts can be explained as a consequence of the restrictive trade regime adopted at that time. Our framework is based on a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model, with scale economies in the capital-intensive sector. Initially, the economy is open and produces only the labor-intensive good. The trade regime is modeled as a move to a closed economy. The model produces results consistent with the Latin American experience. Specifically, a Sufficiently small Country experiences no long-run income growth, but an increase in capital. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneity, saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in Latin America

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of national saving-investment relationship in order to determine the degree of capital mobility in 12 Latin American countries. The analytically relevant correlation is the short-term one, defined as that between changes in saving and investment. Of special interest is the speed at which variables return to the long run equilibrium relationship, which is interpreted as being negatively related to the degree of capital mobility. The long run correlation, in turn, captures the coefficient implied by the solvency constraint. We find that heterogeneity and cross-section dependence completely change the estimation of the long run coefficient. Besides we obtain a more precise short run coefficient estimate compared to the existent estimates in the literature. There is evidence of an intermediate degree of capital mobility, and the coefficients are extremely stable over time.

Waves of Change Within Civil Society in Latin America: Mexico City and Sao Paulo

For the past half a century, Latin American scholars have been pointing toward the emergence of new social actors as agents of social and political democratization. The first wave of actors was characterized by the emergence of novel agents-mainly, new popular movements-of social transformation. At first, the second wave, epitomized by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), was celebrated as the upsurge of a new civil society, but later on, it was the target of harsh criticism. The literature often portrays this development in Latin American civil society as a displacement trend of actors of the first wave by the second wave-""NGOization""-""and even denounces new civil society as rootless, depoliticized, and functional to retrenchment. Thus, supposedly, NGOization encumbers social change. The authors argue that NGOization diagnosis is a flawed depiction of change within civil society. Rather than NGOization related to the depoliticization and neoliberalization of civil society, in Mexico City and Sao Paulo, there has been modernization of organizational ecologies, changes in the functional status of civil society, and interestingly, specialization aimed at shaping public agenda. The authors argue that such specialization, instead of encumbering social change, brings about different repertoires of strategies and skills purposively developed for influencing policy and politics. Their argument relies on comparative systematic evidence. Through network analysis, they examine the organizational ecology of civil society in Mexico City and Sao Paulo.

Doing Courts Justice? Studying Judicial Politics in Latin America

The past decade has brought an unprecedented boom in the study of courts as political actors in Latin America. We examine the extraordinary diversity of academic research on judicial politics in the region, identifying the key questions, findings, and theoretical debates in the literature, highlighting important conceptual disjunctions, and critiquing the research methods scholars of judicial politics in Latin America have employed in their work. We close by suggesting new avenues of inquiry to help advance the collective effort to understand the roles courts play in Latin American politics.

Beyond Numbers THE IMPACT OF GENDER QUOTAS IN LATIN AMERICA

This article considers the impact of electoral quotas for women. Most studies have either focused on whether particular policies increase the numbers of women elected or assessed the extent to which a greater number of women in the legislature produces more gender-sensitive legislation. However, little attention has been paid to the cultural changes that can result from adopting gender quotas. This article argues that, although increasing the number of women in legislatures may improve the attention to gender issues, broader processes are involved. Latin American women`s activism and alliances have been critical in ensuring the expansion of women`s rights and increasing the number of women elected. Quotas, and the debate surrounding their adoption, have provided an incentive for women`s collective action and fostered the politicization of gender issues. An analysis of the impact of quotas, therefore, must recognize these broader impacts.

Air Pollution and Mortality in Latin America The Role of Education

Background: People with less education in Europe, Asia, and the United States are at higher risk of mortality associated with daily and longer-term air pollution exposure. We examined whether educational level modified associations between mortality and ambient particulate pollution (PM(10)) in Latin America, using several timescales. Methods: The study population included people who died during 1998-2002 in Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and Sao Paulo, Brazil. We fit city-specific robust Poisson regressions to daily deaths for nonexternal-cause mortality, and then stratified by age, sex, and educational attainment among adults older than age 21 years (none, some primary, some secondary, and high school degree or more). Predictor variables included a natural spline for temporal trend, linear PM(10) and apparent temperature at matching lags, and day-of-week indicators. We evaluated PM(10) for lags 0 and I day, and fit an unconstrained distributed lag model for cumulative 6-day effects. Results: The effects of a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in lag 1 PM(10) on all nonextemal-cause adult mortality were for Mexico City 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.131/-0.65%); Sao Paulo 1.04% (0.71%-1.38%); and for Santiago 0.61% (0.40%-0.83%. We found cumulative 6-day effects for adult mortality in Santiago (0.86% [0.48%-1.23%]) and Sao Paulo (1.38% [0.85%-1.91%]), but no consistent gradients by educational status. Conclusions: PM(10) had important short- and intermediate-term effects on mortality in these Latin American cities, but associations did not differ consistently by educational level.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Management of acromegaly in Latin America: expert panel recommendations

Although there are international guidelines orienting physicians on how to manage patients with acromegaly, such guidelines should be adapted for use in distinct regions of the world. A panel of neuroendocrinologists convened in Mexico City in August of 2007 to discuss specific considerations in Latin America. Of major discussion was the laboratory evaluation of acromegaly, which requires the use of appropriate tests and the adoption of local institutional standards. As a general rule to ensure diagnosis, the patient`s GH level during an oral glucose tolerance test and IGF-1 level should be evaluated. Furthermore, to guide treatment decisions, both GH and IGF-1 assessments are required. The treatment of patients with acromegaly in Latin America is influenced by local issues of cost, availability and expertise of pituitary neurosurgeons, which should dictate therapeutic choices. Such treatment has undergone profound changes because of the introduction of effective medical interventions that may be used after surgical debulking or as first-line medical therapy in selected cases. Surgical resection remains the mainstay of therapy for small pituitary adenomas (microadenomas), potentially resectable macroadenomas and invasive adenomas causing visual defects. Radiotherapy may be indicated in selected cases when no disease control is achieved despite optimal surgical debulking and medical therapy, when there is no access to somatostatin analogues, or when local issues of cost preclude other therapies. Since not all the diagnostic tools and treatment options are available in all Latin American countries, physicians need to adapt their clinical management decisions to the available local resources and therapeutic options.

Genetic analysis of ticks belonging to the Rhipicephalus sanguineus group in Latin America

Phylogenetic analyses based on mitochondrial 16S rDNA sequences were generated from Rhipicephalus sanguineus group specimens collected in 29 localities among 9 Latin-American countries, plus ticks collected in South Africa, Spain, and Italy. Sequences from Latin America generated six different haplotypes (A, B, C, D, E, and F). Phylogenetic analyses generated trees that segregated our tick sequences into two distinct clades: one is represented by haplotypes A-C, and South African R. sanguineus and Rhipicephalus turanicus ticks; the second clade is represented by haplotypes D-F, and European R. sanguineus and R. turanicus ticks. When haplotypes A-Fare plotted in the Latin America map according to their geographical coordinates, it is clearly seen that haplotypes D-F are restricted to the southern portion of this continent, whereas haplotypes A-C are distributed in areas between northern Mexico and Brazil (except for the extreme south of this last country, where haplotype E was present). Hence, our phylogenetic analyses separated New World specimens of R. sanguineus into two distinct clades, one represented by tropical and subtropical populations (haplotypes A-C), here designated as the `tropical` species. On the other hand, haplotypes D-F are here designated as the `temperate` species because of their distribution in the southern portion of South America. Until recently, it was assumed that the R. sanguineus group was represented by a single species in the New World, namely R. sanguineus. While the present results coupled with recent studies support the presence of at least two species under the taxon R. sanguineus in the New World, they also show that even in the Old World, the taxon R. sanguineus might be represented by more than one species, since our phylogenetic analysis segregated European and South African R. sanguineus ticks into two distinct clades. The same can be applied for Spanish and South African R. turanicus. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.